An analysis of the timeliness and nature of profit warnings in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis

The global financial crisis (GFC) has severely impacted the financial position and performance of many companies internationally. Because of its severity and associated increase in uncertainty it challenges the effectiveness of existing disclosure regulation. Australia provides a unique environment in which to test the effects of the GFC on corporate disclosure because statutory rules mandate the timely disclosure of ‘price-sensitive’ information (ASX Rule 3.1) by listed entities. Exploiting this institutional setting we investigate the determinants and timeliness of profit warnings issued by the top 500 ASX-listed firms with profit declines in the 2009 fiscal year. Our findings show that firms behave differently with regard to the issuance of profit warnings: larger and more indebted firms are more likely to issue a profit warning and tend to be timelier; surprisingly, poorer performing firms tend to release the news more quickly and this might be attributed to an increasing threat of litigation. Our analysis of profit warning determinants shows interesting results with the presence of asset impairments hindering the early disclosure of profit warnings. Our findings are novel for two main reasons: first, we provide insights into the impact of global financial crisis on profit warning behaviour; second, we are the first to examine the differential impact of alternative features of profit warnings on disclosure timeliness. The findings have implications for regulators in determining compliance with continuous disclosure rules and more broadly, for market participants in interpreting profit warnings.

Examining the predictive value of combining the theory of planned behaviour and the volunteer functions inventory

The functions of the volunteer functions inventory were combined with the constructs of the theory of planned behaviour (i.e., attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioural control) to establish whether a stronger, single explanatory model prevailed. Undertaken in the context of episodic, skilled volunteering by individuals who were retired or approaching retirement (N = 186), the research advances on prior studies which either examined the predictive capacity of each model independently or compared their explanatory value. Using hierarchical regression analysis, the functions of the volunteer functions inventory (when controlling for demographic variables) explained an additional 7.0% of variability in individuals’ willingness to volunteer over and above that accounted for by the theory of planned behaviour. Significant predictors in the final model included attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioural control from the theory of planned behaviour and the understanding function from the volunteer functions inventory. It is proposed that the items comprising the understanding function may represent a deeper psychological construct (e.g., self-actualisation) not accounted for by the theory of planned behaviour. The findings highlight the potential benefit of combining these two prominent models in terms of improving understanding of volunteerism and providing a single parsimonious model for raising rates of this important behaviour.

Numerical investigation of deformation and failure mechanisms of osteopontin-hydroxyapatite interfaces and mineralized collagen fibril arrays

This thesis is a comprehensive study of deformation and failure mechanisms in bone at nano- and micro-scale levels. It explores the mechanical behaviour of osteopontin-hydroxyapatite interfaces and mineralized collagen fibril arrays, through atomistic molecular dynamics and finite element simulations. This thesis shows some main factors contributing to the excellent material properties of bone and provides some guidelines for development of new artificial biological materials and medical implants.

Numerical investigation of upstream fuel injection through porous media for scramjet engines via surrogate-assisted evolutionary algorithms

A multi-objective design optimization study has been conducted for upstream fuel injection through porous media applied to the first ramp of a two-dimensional scramjet intake. The optimization has been performed by coupling evolutionary algorithms assisted by surrogate modeling and computational fluid dynamics with respect to three design criteria, that is, the maximization of the absolute mixing quantity, total pressure saving, and fuel penetration. A distinct Pareto optimal front has been obtained, highlighting the counteracting behavior of the total pressure against the mixing efficiency and fuel penetration. The injector location and size have been identified as the key design parameters as a result of a sensitivity analysis, with negligible influence of the porous properties in the configurations and conditions considered in the present study. Flowfield visualization has revealed the underlying physics associated with the effects of these dominant parameters on the shock structure and intensity.

Uncertainty quantification applied to the performance analysis of a conical diffuser

This paper offers an uncertainty quantification (UQ) study applied to the performance analysis of the ERCOFTAC conical diffuser. A deterministic CFD solver is coupled with a non-statistical generalised Polynomial Chaos(gPC)representation based on a pseudo-spectral projection method. Such approach has the advantage to not require any modification of the CFD code for the propagation of random disturbances in the aerodynamic field. The stochactic results highlihgt the importance of the inlet velocity uncertainties on the pressure recovery both alone and when coupled with a second uncertain variable. From a theoretical point of view, we investigate the possibility to build our gPC representation on arbitray grid, thus increasing the flexibility of the stochastic framework.

Pre-processing for approximate Bayesian computation in image analysis

Most of the existing algorithms for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) assume that it is feasible to simulate pseudo-data from the model at each iteration. However, the computational cost of these simulations can be prohibitive for high dimensional data. An important example is the Potts model, which is commonly used in image analysis. Images encountered in real world applications can have millions of pixels, therefore scalability is a major concern. We apply ABC with a synthetic likelihood to the hidden Potts model with additive Gaussian noise. Using a pre-processing step, we fit a binding function to model the relationship between the model parameters and the synthetic likelihood parameters. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that the precomputed binding function dramatically improves the scalability of ABC, reducing the average runtime required for model fitting from 71 hours to only 7 minutes. We also illustrate the method by estimating the smoothing parameter for remotely sensed satellite imagery. Without precomputation, Bayesian inference is impractical for datasets of that scale.

Adaptive finite element analysis of elliptic problems based on bubble-type local mesh generation

A new mesh adaptivity algorithm that combines a posteriori error estimation with bubble-type local mesh generation (BLMG) strategy for elliptic differential equations is proposed. The size function used in the BLMG is defined on each vertex during the adaptive process based on the obtained error estimator. In order to avoid the excessive coarsening and refining in each iterative step, two factor thresholds are introduced in the size function. The advantages of the BLMG-based adaptive finite element method, compared with other known methods, are given as follows: the refining and coarsening are obtained fluently in the same framework; the local a posteriori error estimation is easy to implement through the adjacency list of the BLMG method; at all levels of refinement, the updated triangles remain very well shaped, even if the mesh size at any particular refinement level varies by several orders of magnitude. Several numerical examples with singularities for the elliptic problems, where the explicit error estimators are used, verify the efficiency of the algorithm. The analysis for the parameters introduced in the size function shows that the algorithm has good flexibility.

Dynamic simulation of CFRP strengthened steel column under impact loading

Carbon fibre reinforced polymer (CFRP) strengthening of metallic structures under static loading has shown great potential in the recent years. However, steel structures are often experienced natural (e.g. earthquake, wind) as well as man-made (e.g. vehicular impact, blast) dynamic loading. Therefore, there is a growing interest among the researchers to investigate the capability of CFRP strengthened members under such dynamic conditions. This study focuses on the finite element (FE) numerical modelling and simulation of CFRP strengthened steel column under transverse impact loading to predict the behaviour and failure modes. Impact simulation process and the CFRP strengthened steel column are validated with the existing experimental results in literature. The validated FE model of CFRP strengthened steel column is then further used to investigate the effects of transverse impact loading on its structural performance. The results are presented in terms of transvers e impact force, lateral and axial displacement, and deformed shape to evaluate the effectiveness of CFRP strengthening technique. Comparisons between the bare steel and CFRP strengthened steel columns clearly indicate the performance enhancement of strengthened column under transverse impact loading.

The long-term health consequences of child physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect : a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Child sexual abuse is considered a modifiable risk factor for mental disorders across the life course. However the long-term consequences of other forms of child maltreatment have not yet been systematically examined. The aim of this study was to summarise the evidence relating to the possible relationship between child physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect, and subsequent mental and physical health outcomes. Methods and Findings A systematic review was conducted using the Medline, EMBASE, and PsycINFO electronic databases up to 26 June 2012. Published cohort, cross-sectional, and case-control studies that examined non-sexual child maltreatment as a risk factor for loss of health were included. All meta-analyses were based on quality-effects models. Out of 285 articles assessed for eligibility, 124 studies satisfied the pre-determined inclusion criteria for meta-analysis. Statistically significant associations were observed between physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect and depressive disorders (physical abuse [odds ratio (OR) = 1.54; 95% CI 1.16–2.04], emotional abuse [OR = 3.06; 95% CI 2.43–3.85], and neglect [OR = 2.11; 95% CI 1.61–2.77]); drug use (physical abuse [OR = 1.92; 95% CI 1.67–2.20], emotional abuse [OR = 1.41; 95% CI 1.11–1.79], and neglect [OR = 1.36; 95% CI 1.21–1.54]); suicide attempts (physical abuse [OR = 3.40; 95% CI 2.17–5.32], emotional abuse [OR = 3.37; 95% CI 2.44–4.67], and neglect [OR = 1.95; 95% CI 1.13–3.37]); and sexually transmitted infections and risky sexual behaviour (physical abuse [OR = 1.78; 95% CI 1.50–2.10], emotional abuse [OR = 1.75; 95% CI 1.49–2.04], and neglect [OR = 1.57; 95% CI 1.39–1.78]). Evidence for causality was assessed using Bradford Hill criteria. While suggestive evidence exists for a relationship between maltreatment and chronic diseases and lifestyle risk factors, more research is required to confirm these relationships. Conclusions This overview of the evidence suggests a causal relationship between non-sexual child maltreatment and a range of mental disorders, drug use, suicide attempts, sexually transmitted infections, and risky sexual behaviour. All forms of child maltreatment should be considered important risks to health with a sizeable impact on major contributors to the burden of disease in all parts of the world. The awareness of the serious long-term consequences of child maltreatment should encourage better identification of those at risk and the development of effective interventions to protect children from violence.

Exploring association between perceived importance of travel/traffic information and travel behaviour in natural disasters : a case study of the 2011 Brisbane floods

A sound understanding of travellers’ behavioural changes and adaptation when facing a natural disaster is a key factor in efficiently and effectively managing transport networks at such times. This study specifically investigates the importance of travel/traffic information and its impact on travel behaviour during natural disasters. Using the 2011 Brisbane flood as a case study, survey respondents’ perceptions of the importance of travel/traffic information before, during, and after the flood were modelled using random-effects ordered logit. A hysteresis phenomenon was observed: respondents’ perceptions of the importance of travel/traffic information increased during the flood, and although its perceived importance decreased after the flood, it did not return to the pre-flood level. Results also reveal that socio-demographic features (such as gender and age) have a significant impact on respondents’ perceptions of the importance of travel/traffic information. The roles of travel time and safety in a respondent’s trip planning are also significantly correlated to their perception of the importance of this information. The analysis further shows that during the flood, respondents generally thought that travel/traffic information was important, and adjusted their travel plans according to information received. When controlling for other factors, the estimated odds of changing routes and cancelling trips for a respondent who thought that travel/traffic information was important, are respectively about three times and seven times the estimated odds for a respondent who thought that travel/traffic information was not important. In contrast, after the flood, the influence of travel/traffic information on respondents’ travel behaviour diminishes. Finally, the analysis shows no evidence of the influence of travel/traffic information’s on respondents’ travel mode; this indicates that inducing travel mode change is a challenging task.

The applicability of the Precaution Adoption Process Model for understanding self-regulatory driving behaviour among older drivers

1. Introduction The success of self-regulation, in terms of enhancing older drivers’ safety and maintaining their mobility, depends largely upon older drivers’ awareness of the declines in their driving abilities. Therefore, interventions targeted at increasing older drivers’ safety should aim to enhance their awareness of their physical, sensory and cognitive limitations. Moreover, previous research suggests that driving behaviour change may occur through stages and that interventions and feedback may be perceived differently at each stage. 2. Study aims To further understand the process of driving self-regulation among older adults by exploring their perceptions and experiences of self-regulation, using the PAPM as a framework. To investigate the possible impact of feedback on their driving on their decision making process. 3. Methodology Research tool: Qualitative focus groups (n=5 sessions) Recruitment: Posters, media, newspaper advertisement and emails Inclusion criteria: Aged 70 or more, English-speaking, current drivers Participants: Convenience sample of 27 men and women aged 74 to 90 in the Sunshine Coast and Brisbane city, Queensland, Australia. 4. Analysis Thematic analysis was conducted following the process outlined by Braun and Clarke (2006) to identify, analyse and report themes within the data. Four main themes were identified.

Weak acid extractable metals in Bramble Bay, Queensland, Australia : temporal behaviour, enrichment and source apportionment

Sediment samples were taken from six sampling sites in Bramble Bay, Queensland, Australia between February and November in 2012. They were analysed for a range of heavy metals including Al, Fe, Mn, Ti, Ce, Th, U, V, Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Cd, Sb, Te, Hg, Tl and Pb. Fraction analysis, enrichment factors and Principal Component Analysis –Absolute Principal Component Scores (PCA-APCS) were carried out in order to assess metal pollution, potential bioavailability and source apportionment. Cr and Ni exceeded the Australian Interim Sediment Quality Guidelines at some sampling sites, while Hg was found to be the most enriched metal. Fraction analysis identified increased weak acid soluble Hg and Cd during the sampling period. Source apportionment via PCA-APCS found four sources of metals pollution, namely, marine sediments, shipping, antifouling coatings and a mixed source. These sources need to be considered in any metal pollution control measure within Bramble Bay.

Characterising resistance to overconsumption : a biopsychological analysis

This thesis investigated biopsychological factors involved in successfully resisting overconsumption in an environment promoting obesity, and differences between individuals who were and were not able to resist overconsumption. Results showed that self control was a key factor in successful resistance, whereas sensitivity to food reward was associated with overconsumption susceptibility. Reduced self control may be a consequence as well as a cause of obesity, and may not recover following weight loss. Self control was not enhanced through an exercise programme that aimed to ameliorate brain fitness through improved cardiovascular fitness.

Segmenting Australian high school students : two-step cluster analysis preliminary results

A one size fits all approach dominates alcohol programs in school settings (Botvin et al., 2007), which may limit program effectiveness (Snyder et al., 2004). Programs tailored to the meet the needs and wants of adolescent groups may be more effective. Limited attention has been directed towards employing a full segmentation process. Where segmentation has been examined, the focus has remained on socio-demographic characteristics and more recently psychographic variables (Mathijssen et al., 2012). The current study aimed to identify whether the addition of behaviour could be used to identify segments. Variables included attitudes towards binge drinking (α = 0.86), behavioral intentions’ (α = 0.97), perceived behavioral control (PBC), injunctive norms (α = 0.94); descriptive norms (α = 0.87), knowledge and reported behaviour. Data was collected from five schools, n = 625 (32.96% girls). Two-Step cluster analysis produced a sample (n = 625) with a silhouette measure of cohesion and separation of 0.4. The intention measure and whether students reported previously consuming alcohol were the most distinguishing characteristics - predictor importance scores of (1.0). A four segment solution emerged. The first segment (“Male abstainers” – 37.2%) featured the highest knowledge score (M: 5.9) along with the lowest-risk drinking attitudes and intentions to drink excessively. Segment 2 (“At risk drinkers” - 11.2%) were characterised by their high-risk attitudes and high-risk drinking intentions. Injunctive (M: 4.1) and descriptive norms (M: 4.9) may indicate a social environment where drinking is the norm. Segment 3 (”Female abstainers” – 25.9%) represents young girls, who have the lowest-risk attitudes and low intentions to drink excessively. The fourth and final segment (boys = 67.4%) (“Moderate drinkers” – 25.7%) all report previously drinking alcohol yet their attitudes and intentions towards excessive alcohol consumption are lower than other segments. Segmentation focuses on identifying groups of individuals who feature similar characteristics. The current study illustrates the importance of including reported behaviour in addition to psychographic and demographic characteristics to identify unique groups to inform intervention planning and design. Key messages The principle of segmentation has received limited attention in the context of school-based alcohol education programs. This research identified four segments amongst 14-16 year high school students, each of which can be targeted with a unique, tailored program to meet the needs and wants of the target audience.

Market segmentation : insights for changing children's physical activity behaviour

Market segmentation has received relatively limited attention in social marketing, particularly within the context of changing children’s physical activity behaviour. This is an important area of investigation given growing concern over childhood obesity globally. The present research aims to extend current understanding of the applicability of market segmentation within this context. The results of a two-step cluster analysis on data from 512 respondents of an online survey show three distinct segments of caregivers, each with unique beliefs about their primary school children walking to/from school. The results demonstrate the validity of employing the process of market segmentation within this social context and provide further insights for targeting the identified segments through tailored social marketing programs.