Spatiotemporal aspects of Hendra Virus infection in Pteropid Bats (Flying-Foxes) in Eastern Australia

Hendra virus (HeV) causes highly lethal disease in horses and humans in the eastern Australian states of Queensland (QLD) and New South Wales (NSW), with multiple equine cases now reported on an annual basis. Infection and excretion dynamics in pteropid bats (flying-foxes), the recognised natural reservoir, are incompletely understood. We sought to identify key spatial and temporal factors associated with excretion in flying-foxes over a 2300 km latitudinal gradient from northern QLD to southern NSW which encompassed all known equine case locations. The aim was to strengthen knowledge of Hendra virus ecology in flying-foxes to improve spillover risk prediction and exposure risk mitigation strategies, and thus better protect horses and humans. Monthly pooled urine samples were collected from under roosting flying-foxes over a three-year period and screened for HeV RNA by quantitative RT-PCR. A generalised linear model was employed to investigate spatiotemporal associations with HeV detection in 13,968 samples from 27 roosts. There was a non-linear relationship between mean HeV excretion prevalence and five latitudinal regions, with excretion moderate in northern and central QLD, highest in southern QLD/northern NSW, moderate in central NSW, and negligible in southern NSW. Highest HeV positivity occurred where black or spectacled flying-foxes were present; nil or very low positivity rates occurred in exclusive grey-headed flying-fox roosts. Similarly, little red flying-foxes are evidently not a significant source of virus, as their periodic extreme increase in numbers at some roosts was not associated with any concurrent increase in HeV detection. There was a consistent, strong winter seasonality to excretion in the southern QLD/northern NSW and central NSW regions. This new information allows risk management strategies to be refined and targeted, mindful of the potential for spatial risk profiles to shift over time with changes in flying-fox species distribution.

Nonlinear surface acoustic waves on an isotropic solid

A systematic derivation of the approximate coupled amplitude equations governing the propagation of a quasi-monochromatic Rayleigh surface wave on an isotropic solid is presented, starting from the non-linear governing differential equations and the non-linear free-surface boundary conditions, using the method of mulitple scales. An explicit solution of these equations for a signalling problem is obtained in terms of hyperbolic functions. In the case of monochromatic excitation, it is shown that the second harmonic amplitude grows initially at the expense of the fundamental and that the amplitudes of the fundamental and second harmonic remain bounded for all time.

Using relationship mapping to understand sustainable housing stakeholders’ actions

The production of sustainable housing requires the cooperation of a variety of participants with different goals, needs, levels of commitment and cultures. To achieve mainstream net zero energy housing objectives, there is arguably a need for a non-linear network of collaboration between all the stakeholders. In order to create and improve such collaborative networks between stakeholders, we first need to map stakeholders’ relationships, processes, and practices. This paper discusses compares and contrasts maps of the sustainable housing production life-cycle in Australia, developed from different perspectives. The paper highlights the strengths and weaknesses of each visualization, clarifying where gaps in connectivity exist within existing industry networks. Understanding these gaps will help researchers and practitioners identify how to improve the collaboration between participants in the housing industry. This in turn may improve decision making across all stakeholder groups, leading to mainstream implementation of sustainability into the housing industry.

Periodic oscillations in feedback systems with combined pulse modulation

This paper presents a systematic method of investigating the existence of limit cycle oscillations in feedback systems with combined integral pulse frequency-pulse width (IPF-P/V) modulation. The method is based on the non-linear discrete equivalence of the continuous feedback system containing the IPF-PW modulator.

Factors influencing kinetic and equilibrium behaviour of sodium ion exchange with strong acid cation resin

This study reports an investigation of the ion exchange treatment of sodium chloride solutions in relation to use of resin technology for applications such as desalination of brackish water. In particular, a strong acid cation (SAC) resin (DOW Marathon C) was studied to determine its capacity for sodium uptake and to evaluate the fundamentals of the ion exchange process involved. Key questions to answer included: impact of resin identity; best models to simulate the kinetics and equilibrium exchange behaviour of sodium ions; difference between using linear least squares (LLS) and non-linear least squares (NLLS) methods for data interpretation; and, effect of changing the type of anion in solution which accompanied the sodium species. Kinetic studies suggested that the exchange process was best described by a pseudo first order rate expression based upon non-linear least squares analysis of the test data. Application of the Langmuir Vageler isotherm model was recommended as it allowed confirmation that experimental conditions were sufficient for maximum loading of sodium ions to occur. The Freundlich expression best fitted the equilibrium data when analysing the information by a NLLS approach. In contrast, LLS methods suggested that the Langmuir model was optimal for describing the equilibrium process. The Competitive Langmuir model which considered the stoichiometric nature of ion exchange process, estimated the maximum loading of sodium ions to be 64.7 g Na/kg resin. This latter value was comparable to sodium ion capacities for SAC resin published previously. Inherent discrepancies involved when using linearized versions of kinetic and isotherm equations were illustrated, and despite their widespread use, the value of this latter approach was questionable. The equilibrium behaviour of sodium ions form sodium fluoride solution revealed that the sodium ions were now more preferred by the resin compared to the situation with sodium chloride. The solution chemistry of hydrofluoric acid was suggested as promoting the affinity of the sodium ions to the resin.

Dynamics of a class of social interaction systems

A mathematical model of social interaction in the form of two coupler! first-order non-linear differential equations, forms the topic of this study. This non-conservative model io representative of such varied social interaction problems as coexisting sub-populations of two different species, arms race between two rival countries and the like. Differential transformation techniques developed elsewhere in the literature are seen to be effective tools of dynamic analysis of this non-linear non-conservative mode! of social interaction process.

Optimal adaptive sequential spatial sampling of soil using pair-copulas

A spatial sampling design that uses pair-copulas is presented that aims to reduce prediction uncertainty by selecting additional sampling locations based on both the spatial configuration of existing locations and the values of the observations at those locations. The novelty of the approach arises in the use of pair-copulas to estimate uncertainty at unsampled locations. Spatial pair-copulas are able to more accurately capture spatial dependence compared to other types of spatial copula models. Additionally, unlike traditional kriging variance, uncertainty estimates from the pair-copula account for influence from measurement values and not just the configuration of observations. This feature is beneficial, for example, for more accurate identification of soil contamination zones where high contamination measurements are located near measurements of varying contamination. The proposed design methodology is applied to a soil contamination example from the Swiss Jura region. A partial redesign of the original sampling configuration demonstrates the potential of the proposed methodology.

L_{2}- stability of a class of nonstationary feedback systems with dynamical nonlinear subsystems

A class of feedback systems, consisting of dynamical non-linear subsystems which arise in many diverse control applications, is analyzed for L2-stability. It is shown that, although a transformation of these systems to the familiar Lur'e configuration does not seem to be possible, a one-to-one correspondence may be effected between the stability properties of these and the Lur'e systems. Interesting stability criteria are developed by exploiting this characteristic.

An analytical approach to the study of a class of bi-state social interaction processes

Sufficient conditions for obtaining an equivalent linear model to classes of non-linear, bi-state, social interaction processes are derived. These parametric constraints, when satisfied, permit analytical determination of the dynamics of the non-linear process of social interaction.

Dynamics of inflation expectations in the euro area

The present study examines empirically the inflation dynamics of the euro area. The focus of the analysis is on the role of expectations in the inflation process. In six articles we relax rationality assumption and proxy expectations directly using OECD forecasts or Consensus Economics survey data. In the first four articles we estimate alternative Phillips curve specifications and find evidence that inflation cannot instantaneously adjust to changes in expectations. A possible departure of expectations from rationality seems not to be powerful enough to totally explain the persistence of euro area inflation in the New Keynesian framework. When expectations are measured directly, the purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve is outperformed by the hybrid Phillips curve with an additional lagged inflation term and the New Classical Phillips curve with a lagged expectations term. The results suggest that the euro area inflation process has become more forward-looking in the recent years of low and stable inflation. Moreover, in low inflation countries, the inflation dynamics have been more forward-looking already since the late 1970s. We find evidence of substantial heterogeneity of inflation dynamics across the euro area countries. Real time data analysis suggests that in the euro area real time information matters most in the expectations term in the Phillips curve and that the balance of expectations formation is more forward- than backward-looking. Vector autoregressive (VAR) models of actual inflation, inflation expectations and the output gap are estimated in the last two articles.The VAR analysis indicates that inflation expectations, which are relatively persistent, have a significant effect on output. However,expectations seem to react to changes in both output and actual inflation, especially in the medium term. Overall, this study suggests that expectations play a central role in inflation dynamics, which should be taken into account in conducting monetary policy.

Application of optimization methods to vibration control of stretched strings

In this paper, non-linear programming techniques are applied to the problem of controlling the vibration pattern of a stretched string. First, the problem of finding the magnitudes of two control forces applied at two points l1 and l2 on the string to reduce the energy of vibration over the interval (l1, l2) relative to the energy outside the interval (l1, l2) is considered. For this problem the relative merits of various methods of non-linear programming are compared. The more complicated problem of finding the positions and magnitudes of two control forces to obtain the desired energy pattern is then solved by using the slack unconstrained minimization technique with the Fletcher-Powell search. In the discussion of the results it is shown that the position of the control force is very important in controlling the energy pattern of the string.

Country-scale carbon accounting of the vegetation and mineral soils of Finland

The increase in global temperature has been attributed to increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG), mainly that of CO2. The threat of severe and complex socio-economic and ecological implications of climate change have initiated an international process that aims to reduce emissions, to increase C sinks, and to protect existing C reservoirs. The famous Kyoto protocol is an offspring of this process. The Kyoto protocol and its accords state that signatory countries need to monitor their forest C pools, and to follow the guidelines set by the IPCC in the preparation, reporting and quality assessment of the C pool change estimates. The aims of this thesis were i) to estimate the changes in carbon stocks vegetation and soil in the forests in Finnish forests from 1922 to 2004, ii) to evaluate the applied methodology by using empirical data, iii) to assess the reliability of the estimates by means of uncertainty analysis, iv) to assess the effect of forest C sinks on the reliability of the entire national GHG inventory, and finally, v) to present an application of model-based stratification to a large-scale sampling design of soil C stock changes. The applied methodology builds on the forest inventory measured data (or modelled stand data), and uses statistical modelling to predict biomasses and litter productions, as well as a dynamic soil C model to predict the decomposition of litter. The mean vegetation C sink of Finnish forests from 1922 to 2004 was 3.3 Tg C a-1, and in soil was 0.7 Tg C a-1. Soil is slowly accumulating C as a consequence of increased growing stock and unsaturated soil C stocks in relation to current detritus input to soil that is higher than in the beginning of the period. Annual estimates of vegetation and soil C stock changes fluctuated considerably during the period, were frequently opposite (e.g. vegetation was a sink but soil was a source). The inclusion of vegetation sinks into the national GHG inventory of 2003 increased its uncertainty from between -4% and 9% to ± 19% (95% CI), and further inclusion of upland mineral soils increased it to ± 24%. The uncertainties of annual sinks can be reduced most efficiently by concentrating on the quality of the model input data. Despite the decreased precision of the national GHG inventory, the inclusion of uncertain sinks improves its accuracy due to the larger sectoral coverage of the inventory. If the national soil sink estimates were prepared by repeated soil sampling of model-stratified sample plots, the uncertainties would be accounted for in the stratum formation and sample allocation. Otherwise, the increases of sampling efficiency by stratification remain smaller. The highly variable and frequently opposite annual changes in ecosystem C pools imply the importance of full ecosystem C accounting. If forest C sink estimates will be used in practice average sink estimates seem a more reasonable basis than the annual estimates. This is due to the fact that annual forest sinks vary considerably and annual estimates are uncertain, and they have severe consequences for the reliability of the total national GHG balance. The estimation of average sinks should still be based on annual or even more frequent data due to the non-linear decomposition process that is influenced by the annual climate. The methodology used in this study to predict forest C sinks can be transferred to other countries with some modifications. The ultimate verification of sink estimates should be based on comparison to empirical data, in which case the model-based stratification presented in this study can serve to improve the efficiency of the sampling design.

Steady mixed convection stagnation-point flow of upper convected Maxwell fluids with magnetic field

The steady MHD mixed convection flow of a viscoelastic fluid in the vicinity of two-dimensional stagnation point with magnetic field has been investigated under the assumption that the fluid obeys the upper-convected Maxwell (UCM) model. Boundary layer theory is used to simplify the equations of motion. induced magnetic field and energy which results in three coupled non-linear ordinary differential equations which are well-posed. These equations have been solved by using finite difference method. The results indicate the reduction in the surface velocity gradient, surface heat transfer and displacement thickness with the increase in the elasticity number. These trends are opposite to those reported in the literature for a second-grade fluid. The surface velocity gradient and heat transfer are enhanced by the magnetic and buoyancy parameters. The surface heat transfer increases with the Prandtl number, but the surface velocity gradient decreases.

Thermoelectric power in ultrathin films, quantum wires and carbon nanotubes under classically large magnetic field: Simplified theory and relative comparison

We study the thermoelectric power under classically large magnetic field (TPM) in ultrathin films (UFs), quantum wires (QWs) of non-linear optical materials on the basis of a newly formulated electron dispersion law considering the anisotropies of the effective electron masses, the spin-orbit splitting constants and the presence of the crystal field splitting within the framework of k.p formalism. The results of quantum confined III-V compounds form the special cases of our generalized analysis. The TPM has also been studied for quantum confined II-VI, stressed materials, bismuth and carbon nanotubes (CNs) on the basis of respective dispersion relations. It is found taking quantum confined CdGeAs2, InAs, InSb, CdS, stressed n-InSb and Bi that the TPM increases with increasing film thickness and decreasing electron statistics exhibiting quantized nature for all types of quantum confinement. The TPM in CNs exhibits oscillatory dependence with increasing carrier concentration and the signature of the entirely different types of quantum systems are evident from the plots. Besides, under certain special conditions, all the results for all the materials gets simplified to the well-known expression of the TPM for non-degenerate materials having parabolic energy bands, leading to the compatibility test. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting the temporal response of seagrass meadows to dredging using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

Predicting temporal responses of ecosystems to disturbances associated with industrial activities is critical for their management and conservation. However, prediction of ecosystem responses is challenging due to the complexity and potential non-linearities stemming from interactions between system components and multiple environmental drivers. Prediction is particularly difficult for marine ecosystems due to their often highly variable and complex natures and large uncertainties surrounding their dynamic responses. Consequently, current management of such systems often rely on expert judgement and/or complex quantitative models that consider only a subset of the relevant ecological processes. Hence there exists an urgent need for the development of whole-of-systems predictive models to support decision and policy makers in managing complex marine systems in the context of industry based disturbances. This paper presents Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) for predicting the temporal response of a marine ecosystem to anthropogenic disturbances. The DBN provides a visual representation of the problem domain in terms of factors (parts of the ecosystem) and their relationships. These relationships are quantified via Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs), which estimate the variability and uncertainty in the distribution of each factor. The combination of qualitative visual and quantitative elements in a DBN facilitates the integration of a wide array of data, published and expert knowledge and other models. Such multiple sources are often essential as one single source of information is rarely sufficient to cover the diverse range of factors relevant to a management task. Here, a DBN model is developed for tropical, annual Halophila and temperate, persistent Amphibolis seagrass meadows to inform dredging management and help meet environmental guidelines. Specifically, the impacts of capital (e.g. new port development) and maintenance (e.g. maintaining channel depths in established ports) dredging is evaluated with respect to the risk of permanent loss, defined as no recovery within 5 years (Environmental Protection Agency guidelines). The model is developed using expert knowledge, existing literature, statistical models of environmental light, and experimental data. The model is then demonstrated in a case study through the analysis of a variety of dredging, environmental and seagrass ecosystem recovery scenarios. In spatial zones significantly affected by dredging, such as the zone of moderate impact, shoot density has a very high probability of being driven to zero by capital dredging due to the duration of such dredging. Here, fast growing Halophila species can recover, however, the probability of recovery depends on the presence of seed banks. On the other hand, slow growing Amphibolis meadows have a high probability of suffering permanent loss. However, in the maintenance dredging scenario, due to the shorter duration of dredging, Amphibolis is better able to resist the impacts of dredging. For both types of seagrass meadows, the probability of loss was strongly dependent on the biological and ecological status of the meadow, as well as environmental conditions post-dredging. The ability to predict the ecosystem response under cumulative, non-linear interactions across a complex ecosystem highlights the utility of DBNs for decision support and environmental management.