Evaluation of the use of radiosonde humidity data to predict the occurrence of persistent contrails

Regular visual observations of persistent contrails over Reading, UK, have been used to evaluate radiosonde measurements of temperature and humidity defining cold ice-supersaturated atmospheric regions which are assumed to be a necessary condition for persistent condensation trails (contrails) to form. Results show a good correlation between observations and predictions using data from Larkhill, 63 km from Reading. A statistical analysis of this result and the forecasts using data from four additional UK radiosonde stations are presented. The horizontal extent of supersaturated layers could be inferred from this to be several hundred kilometres. The necessity of bias corrections to radiosonde humidity measurements is discussed and an analysis of measured ice-supersaturated atmospheric layers in the troposphere is presented. It is found that ice supersaturation is more likely to occur in winter than in summer, with frequencies of 17.3% and 9.4%, respectively, which is mostly due to the layers being thicker in winter than in summer. The most probable height for them to occur is about 10 km.

Memory-based Embodied Cognition: a computational architecture

At its most fundamental, cognition as displayed by biological agents (such as humans) may be said to consist of the manipulation and utilisation of memory. Recent discussions in the field of cognitive robotics have emphasised the role of embodiment and the necessity of a value or motivation for autonomous behaviour. This work proposes a computational architecture – the Memory-Based Cognitive (MBC) architecture – based upon these considerations for the autonomous development of control of a simple mobile robot. This novel architecture will permit the exploration of theoretical issues in cognitive robotics and animal cognition. Furthermore, the biological inspiration of the architecture is anticipated to result in a mobile robot controller which displays adaptive behaviour in unknown environments.

Autocyclic erosion in tidal marshes

A common mode whereby destruction of coastal lowlands occurs is frontal erosion. The edge cliffing, nonetheless, is also an inherent aspect of salt marsh development in many northwest European tidal marshes. Quite a few geomorphologists in the earlier half of the past century recognized such edge erosion as a definite repetitive stage within an autocyclic mode of marsh growth. A shift in research priorities during the past decades (primarily because of coastal management concerns, however) has resulted in an enhanced focus on sediment-flux measurement campaigns on salt marshes. This, somewhat "object-oriented" strategy hindered any further development of the once-established autocyclic growth concept, which virtually has gone into oblivion in recent times. This work makes an attempt to resurrect the notion of autocyclicity by employing its premises to address edge erosion in tidal marshes. Through a review of intertidal morphosedimentology the underlying framework for autocyclicity is envisaged. The phenomenon is demonstrated in the Holocene salt marsh plain of Moricambe basin in NW England that displays several distinct phases of marsh retreat in the form of abandoned clifflets. The suite of abandoned shorelines and terraces has been identified in detailed field mapping that followed analysis of topographic maps and aerial photographs. Vertical trends in marsh plain sediments are recorded in trenches for signs of past marsh front movements. The characteristic sea level history of the area offers an opportunity to differentiate the morphodynamic variability induced in the autocyclic growth of the marsh plain in scenarios of rising and falling sea level and the accompanied change in sediment budget. The ideas gathered are incorporated to construct a conceptual model that links temporal extent of marsh erosion to inner tidal flat sediment budget and sea level tendency. The review leads to recognition of the necessity of adopting an holistic approach in the morphodynamic investigations where marshes should be treated as a component within the "marsh-mudflat system" as each element apparently modulates evolution of the other, with an eventual linkage to subtidal channels. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Distributed mining of molecular fragments

In real world applications sequential algorithms of data mining and data exploration are often unsuitable for datasets with enormous size, high-dimensionality and complex data structure. Grid computing promises unprecedented opportunities for unlimited computing and storage resources. In this context there is the necessity to develop high performance distributed data mining algorithms. However, the computational complexity of the problem and the large amount of data to be explored often make the design of large scale applications particularly challenging. In this paper we present the first distributed formulation of a frequent subgraph mining algorithm for discriminative fragments of molecular compounds. Two distributed approaches have been developed and compared on the well known National Cancer Institute’s HIV-screening dataset. We present experimental results on a small-scale computing environment.

In vitro microbial inoculum: A review of its function and properties

This review considers microbial inocula used in in vitro systems from the perspective of their ability to degrade or ferment a particular substrate, rather than the microbial species that it contains. By necessity, this required an examination of bacterial, protozoal and fungal populations of the rumen and hindgut with respect to factors influencing their activity. The potential to manipulate these populations through diet or sampling time are examined, as is inoculum preparation and level. The main alternatives to fresh rumen fluid (i.e., caecal digesta or faeces) are discussed with respect to end-point degradabilities and fermentation dynamics. Although the potential to use rumen contents obtained from donor animals at slaughter offers possibilities, the requirement to store it and its subsequent loss of activity are limitations. Statistical modelling of data, although still requiring a deal of developmental work, may offer an alternative approach. Finally, with respect to the range of in vitro methodologies and equipment employed, it is suggested that a degree of uniformity could be obtained through generation of a set of guidelines relating to the host animal, sampling technique and inoculum preparation. It was considered unlikely that any particular system would be accepted as the 'standard' procedure. However, before any protocol can be adopted, additional data are required (e.g., a method to assess inoculum 'quality' with respect to its fermentative and/or degradative activity), preparation/inoculation techniques need to be refined and a methodology to store inocula without loss of efficacy developed. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Apical leaf necrosis and leaf nitrogen dynamics in diseased leaves: a model study

Apical leaf necrosis is a physiological process related to nitrogen (N) dynamics in the leaf. Pathogens use leaf nutrients and can thus accelerate this physiological apical necrosis. This process differs from necrosis occurring around pathogen lesions (lesion-induced necrosis), which is a direct result of the interaction between pathogen hyphae and leaf cells. This paper primarily concentrates on apical necrosis, only incorporating lesion-induced necrosis by necessity. The relationship between pathogen dynamics and physiological apical leaf necrosis is modelled through leaf nitrogen dynamics. The specific case of Puccinia triticina infections on Triticum aestivum flag leaves is studied. In the model, conversion of indirectly available N in the form of, for example, leaf cell proteins (N-2(t)) into directly available N (N-1(t), i.e. the form of N that can directly be used by either pathogen or plant sinks) results in apical necrosis. The model reproduces observed trends of disease severity, apical necrosis and green leaf area (GLA) and leaf N dynamics of uninfected and infected leaves. Decreasing the initial amount of directly available N results in earlier necrosis onset and longer necrosis duration. Decreasing the initial amount of indirectly available N, has no effect on necrosis onset and shortens necrosis duration. The model could be used to develop hypotheses on how the disease-GLA relation affects yield loss, which can be tested experimentally. Upon incorporation into crop simulation models, the model might provide a tool to more accurately estimate crop yield and effects of disease management strategies in crops sensitive to fungal pathogens.

Experimental model of the interfacial instability in aluminium reduction cells

A solution has been found to the long-standing problem of experimental modelling of the interfacial instability in aluminium reduction cells. The idea is to replace the electrolyte overlaying molten aluminium with a mesh of thin rods supplying current down directly into the liquid metal layer. This eliminates electrolysis altogether and all the problems associated with it, such as high temperature, chemical aggressiveness of media, products of electrolysis, the necessity for electrolyte renewal, high power demands, etc. The result is a room temperature, versatile laboratory model which simulates Sele-type, rolling pad interfacial instability. Our new, safe laboratory model enables detailed experimental investigations to test the existing theoretical models for the first time.

Adult skeletal muscle stem cell migration is mediated by a blebbing/amoeboid mechanism

Adult skeletal muscle possesses a resident stem cell population called satellite cells which are responsible for tissue repair following damage. Satellite cell migration is crucial in promoting rapid tissue regeneration but is a poorly understood process. Furthermore, the mechanisms facilitating satellite cell movement have yet to be elucidated. Here the process of satellite cell migration has been investigated revealing that they undergo two distinct phases of movement; firstly under the basal lamina and then rapidly increasing their velocity when on the myofibre surface. Most significantly we show that satellite cells move using a highly dynamic blebbing based mechanism and not via lamellopodia mediated propulsion. We show that nitric oxide and non-canonical Wnt signalling pathways are necessary for regulating the formation of blebs and the migration of satellite cells. In summary, we propose that the formation of blebs and their necessity for satellite cell migration has significant implications in the future development of therapeutic regimes aimed at promoting skeletal muscle regeneration.

Detection of faults in a high speed packaging machine using a multilayer perceptron (MLP)

In high speed manufacturing systems, continuous operation is desirable, with minimal disruption for repairs and service. An intelligent diagnostic monitoring system, designed to detect developing faults before catastrophic failure, or prior to undesirable reduction in output quality, is a good means of achieving this. Artificial neural networks have already been found to be of value in fault diagnosis of machinery. The aim here is to provide a system capable of detecting a number of faults, in order that maintenance can be scheduled in advance of sudden failure, and to reduce the necessity to replace parts at intervals based on mean time between failures. Instead, parts will need to be replaced only when necessary. Analysis of control information in the form of position error data from two servomotors is described.

Towards an improved and more flexible representation of water stress in coupled photosynthesis–stomatal conductance models

Coupled photosynthesis–stomatal conductance (A–gs) models are commonly used in ecosystem models to represent the exchange rate of CO2 and H2O between vegetation and the atmosphere. The ways these models account for water stress differ greatly among modelling schemes. This study provides insight into the impact of contrasting model configurations of water stress on the simulated leaf-level values of net photosynthesis (A), stomatal conductance (gs), the functional relationship among them and their ratio, the intrinsic water use efficiency (A/gs), as soil dries. A simple, yet versatile, normalized soil moisture dependent function was used to account for the effects of water stress on gs, on mesophyll conductance (gm) and on the biochemical capacity. Model output was compared to leaf-level values obtained from the literature. The sensitivity analyses emphasized the necessity to combine both stomatal and non-stomatal limitations of A in coupled A–gs models to accurately capture the observed functional relationships A vs. gs and A/gsvs. gs in response to drought. Accounting for water stress in coupled A–gs models by imposing either stomatal or biochemical limitations of A, as commonly practiced in most ecosystem models, failed to reproduce the observed functional relationship between key leaf gas exchange attributes. A quantitative limitation analysis revealed that the general pattern of C3 photosynthetic response to water stress may be well represented in coupled A–gs models by imposing the highest limitation strength to gm, then to gs and finally to the biochemical capacity.

Ananke

Ananke, Homeric “compulsion,” becomes an important philosophical term among the pre-Socratics. To Thales it is the natural necessity that powers all phenomena and compels divinities to epiphany (71 A12 DK).

A micro-level simulation for the prediction of intention and behaviour

In this contribution we aim at anchoring Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) simulations in actual models of human psychology. More specifically, we apply unidirectional ABM to social psychological models using low level agents (i.e., intra-individual) to examine whether they generate better predictions, in comparison to standard statistical approaches, concerning the intentions of performing a behavior and the behavior. Moreover, this contribution tests to what extent the predictive validity of models of attitude such as the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) or Model of Goal-directed Behavior (MGB) depends on the assumption that peoples’ decisions and actions are purely rational. Simulations were therefore run by considering different deviations from rationality of the agents with a trembling hand method. Two data sets concerning respectively the consumption of soft drinks and physical activity were used. Three key findings emerged from the simulations. First, compared to standard statistical approach the agent-based simulation generally improves the prediction of behavior from intention. Second, the improvement in prediction is inversely proportional to the complexity of the underlying theoretical model. Finally, the introduction of varying degrees of deviation from rationality in agents’ behavior can lead to an improvement in the goodness of fit of the simulations. By demonstrating the potential of ABM as a complementary perspective to evaluating social psychological models, this contribution underlines the necessity of better defining agents in terms of psychological processes before examining higher levels such as the interactions between individuals.

Understanding lake and catchment history as a tool for integrated lake management

Sustainable lake management for nutrient-enriched lakes must be underpinned by an understanding of both the functioning of the lake, and the origins of changes in nutrient loading from the catchment. To date, limnologists have tended to focus on studying the impact of nutrient enrichment on the lake biota, and the dynamics of nutrient cycling between the water column, biota and sediments within the lake. Relatively less attention has been paid to understanding the specific origins of nutrient loading from the catchment and nutrient transport pathways linking the lake to its catchment. As such, when devising catchment management strategies to reduce nutrient loading on enriched lakes, assumptions have been made regarding the relative significance of non-point versus point sources in the catchment. These are not always supported by research conducted on catchment nutrient dynamics in other fields of freshwater science. Studies on nutrient enrichment in lakes need to take account of the history of catchment use and management specific to each lake in order to devise targeted and sustainable management strategies to reduce nutrient loading to enriched lakes. Here a modelling approach which allows quantification of the relative contribution of nutrients from each specific point and non-point catchment source over the course of catchment history is presented. The approach has been applied to three contrasting catchments in the U.K. for the period 1931 to present. These are the catchment of Slapton Ley in south Devon, the River Esk in Cumbria and the Deben Estuary in Suffolk. Each catchment showed marked variations in the nature and intensity of land use and management. The model output quantifies the relative importance of point source versus non-point livestock and land use sources in each of the catchments, and demonstrates the necessity for an understanding of site-specific catchment history in devising suitable management strategies for the reduction of nutrient loading on enriched lakes.

An earth-system prediction initiative for the twenty-first century

The necessity and benefits for establishing the international Earth-system Prediction Initiative (EPI) are discussed by scientists associated with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme (IGBP), Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), and natural-hazards and socioeconomic communities. The proposed initiative will provide research and services to accelerate advances in weather, climate, and Earth system prediction and the use of this information by global societies. It will build upon the WMO, the Group on Earth Observations (GEO), the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and the International Council for Science (ICSU) to coordinate the effort across the weather, climate, Earth system, natural-hazards, and socioeconomic disciplines. It will require (i) advanced high-performance computing facilities, supporting a worldwide network of research and operational modeling centers, and early warning systems; (ii) science, technology, and education projects to enhance knowledge, awareness, and utilization of weather, climate, environmental, and socioeconomic information; (iii) investments in maintaining existing and developing new observational capabilities; and (iv) infrastructure to transition achievements into operational products and services.

A matter of choice: strategy and discretion in the shadow of World War Two

American policy-makers are predisposed towards the idea of a necessary war of survival, fought with little room for choice. This reflects a dominant memory of World War II that teaches Americans that they live in a dangerously small world that imposes conflict. Critics argue that the ‘choice versus necessity’ schema is ahistorical and mischievous. This article offers supporting fire to those critiques. America’s war against the Axis (1941–45) is a crucial case through which to test the ‘small world’ view. Arguments for war in 1941 pose overblown scenarios of the rise of a Eurasian super-threat. In 1941 conflict was discretionary and not strictly necessary in the interests of national security. The argument for intervention is a closer call that often assumed. This has implications for America’s choices today.