Skilloscopy: Bayesian modeling of decision makers' skill

This paper proposes and demonstrates an approach, Skilloscopy, to the assessment of decision makers. In an increasingly sophisticated, connected and information-rich world, decision making is becoming both more important and more difficult. At the same time, modelling decision-making on computers is becoming more feasible and of interest, partly because the information-input to those decisions is increasingly on record. The aims of Skilloscopy are to rate and rank decision makers in a domain relative to each other: the aims do not include an analysis of why a decision is wrong or suboptimal, nor the modelling of the underlying cognitive process of making the decisions. In the proposed method a decision-maker is characterised by a probability distribution of their competence in choosing among quantifiable alternatives. This probability distribution is derived by classic Bayesian inference from a combination of prior belief and the evidence of the decisions. Thus, decision-makers’ skills may be better compared, rated and ranked. The proposed method is applied and evaluated in the gamedomain of Chess. A large set of games by players across a broad range of the World Chess Federation (FIDE) Elo ratings has been used to infer the distribution of players’ rating directly from the moves they play rather than from game outcomes. Demonstration applications address questions frequently asked by the Chess community regarding the stability of the Elo rating scale, the comparison of players of different eras and/or leagues, and controversial incidents possibly involving fraud. The method of Skilloscopy may be applied in any decision domain where the value of the decision-options can be quantified.

Neural activation and functional connectivity during motor imagery of bimanual everyday actions

Bimanual actions impose intermanual coordination demands not present during unimanual actions. We investigated the functional neuroanatomical correlates of these coordination demands in motor imagery (MI) of everyday actions using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). For this, 17 participants imagined unimanual actions with the left and right hand as well as bimanual actions while undergoing fMRI. A univariate fMRI analysis showed no reliable cortical activations specific to bimanual MI, indicating that intermanual coordination demands in MI are not associated with increased neural processing. A functional connectivity analysis based on psychophysiological interactions (PPI), however, revealed marked increases in connectivity between parietal and premotor areas within and between hemispheres. We conclude that in MI of everyday actions intermanual coordination demands are primarily met by changes in connectivity between areas and only moderately, if at all, by changes in the amount of neural activity. These results are the first characterization of the neuroanatomical correlates of bimanual coordination demands in MI. Our findings support the assumed equivalence of overt and imagined actions and highlight the differences between uni- and bimanual actions. The findings extent our understanding of the motor system and may aid the development of clinical neurorehabilitation approaches based on mental practice.

The potential for skill across the range of the seamless weather-climate prediction problem: a stimulus for our science

Predictability is considered in the context of the seamless weather-climate prediction problem, and the notion is developed that there can be predictive power on all time-scales. On all scales there are phenomena that occur as well as longer time-scales and external conditions that should combine to give some predictability. To what extent this theoretical predictability may actually be realised and, further, to what extent it may be useful is not clear. However the potential should provide a stimulus to, and high profile for, our science and its application for many years.

Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings

Advances in seasonal forecasting have brought widespread socio-economic benefits. However, seasonal forecast skill in the extratropics is relatively modest, prompting the seasonal forecasting community to search for additional sources of predictability. For over a decade it has been suggested that knowledge of the state of the stratosphere can act as a source of enhanced seasonal predictability; long-lived circulation anomalies in the lower stratosphere that follow stratospheric sudden warmings are associated with circulation anomalies in the troposphere that can last up to two months. Here, we show by performing retrospective ensemble model forecasts that such enhanced predictability can be realized in a dynamical seasonal forecast system with a good representation of the stratosphere. When initialized at the onset date of stratospheric sudden warmings, the model forecasts faithfully reproduce the observed mean tropospheric conditions in the months following the stratospheric sudden warmings. Compared with an equivalent set of forecasts that are not initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings, we document enhanced forecast skill for atmospheric circulation patterns, surface temperatures over northern Russia and eastern Canada and North Atlantic precipitation. We suggest that seasonal forecast systems initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings are likely to yield significantly greater forecast skill in some regions.

Intermittently-visual tracking experiments reveal the roles of error-correction and predictive mechanisms in the human visual-motor control system

Prediction mechanism is necessary for human visual motion to compensate a delay of sensory-motor system. In a previous study, “proactive control” was discussed as one example of predictive function of human beings, in which motion of hands preceded the virtual moving target in visual tracking experiments. To study the roles of the positional-error correction mechanism and the prediction mechanism, we carried out an intermittently-visual tracking experiment where a circular orbit is segmented into the target-visible regions and the target-invisible regions. Main results found in this research were following. A rhythmic component appeared in the tracer velocity when the target velocity was relatively high. The period of the rhythm in the brain obtained from environmental stimuli is shortened more than 10%. The shortening of the period of rhythm in the brain accelerates the hand motion as soon as the visual information is cut-off, and causes the precedence of hand motion to the target motion. Although the precedence of the hand in the blind region is reset by the environmental information when the target enters the visible region, the hand motion precedes the target in average when the predictive mechanism dominates the error-corrective mechanism.

The performance of football club managers: skill or luck?

This paper evaluates the extent to which the performance of English Premier League football club managers can be attributed to skill or luck when measured separately from the characteristics of the team. We first use a specification that models managerial skill as a fixed effect and we examine the relationship between the number of points earned in league matches and the club’s wage bill, transfer spending, and the extent to which they were hit by absent players through injuries, suspensions or unavailability. We next implement a bootstrapping approach to generate a simulated distribution of average points that could have taken place after the impact of the manager has been removed. The findings suggest that there are a considerable number of highly skilled managers but also several who perform below expectations. The paper proceeds to illustrate how the approach adopted could be used to determine the optimal time for a club to part company with its manager. We are able to identify in advance several managers who the analysis suggests could have been fired earlier and others whose sackings were hard to justify based on their performances.

Assessing the spatial and temporal variation in the skill of precipitation forecasts from an NWP model

It is becoming increasingly important to be able to verify the spatial accuracy of precipitation forecasts, especially with the advent of high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In this article, the fractions skill score (FSS) approach has been used to perform a scale-selective evaluation of precipitation forecasts during 2003 from the Met Office mesoscale model (12 km grid length). The investigation shows how skill varies with spatial scale, the scales over which the data assimilation (DA) adds most skill, and how the loss of that skill is dependent on both the spatial scale and the rainfall coverage being examined. Although these results come from a specific model, they demonstrate how this verification approach can provide a quantitative assessment of the spatial behaviour of new finer-resolution models and DA techniques.

Analysis of EEG signal to detect motor command generation towards stroke rehabilitation

Our aim is to reconstruct the brain-body loop of stroke patients via an EEG-driven robotic system. After the detection of motor command generation, the robotic arm should assist patient’s movement at the correct moment and in a natural way. In this study we performed EEG measurements from healthy subjects performing discrete spontaneous motion. An EEG analysis based on the temporal correlation of the brain activity was employed to determine the onset of single motion motor command generation.

Disrupted white matter in language and motor tracts in developmental stuttering

White matter tractsc onnecting areas involved in speech and motor control were examined using diffusion-tensor imagingingin a sample of peoplewhostutter (n=29) who were heterogeneous with respect to age, sex, handedness and stuttering severity. The goals were to replicate previous findings in developmental stuttering and to extend ourknowledge by evaluating the relationship between white matter differences in people who stutter and factors such as age, sex, handedness and stuttering severity. We replicated previous findings that showed reduced integrity in white matter underlying ventral premotorcortex, cerebral peduncles and posteriorcorpus callosum in people who stutter, relative to controls. Tractography analysis additionally revealed significantly reduced white matter integrity in the arcuate fasciculus bilaterally and the left corticospinal tract and significantly reduced connectivity within theleft corticobulbar tract in people who stutter. Region-of-interest analyses revealed reduced white matter integrity in people whostutter in the three pairs ocerebellar peduncles thatcarry the afferent and efferent fibers of the cerebellum. Within thegroup of people who stutter, the higher the stuttering severity index, the lower the white matter integrity in the leftangular gyrus but the greater the white matter connectivity in theleft corticobulbartract. Also,in people who stutter, handedness and age predicted the integrity of the corticospinal tract and peduncles, respectively. Further studies are needed to determine which of these white matter differences relate to the neural basis of stuttering and which reflect experience-dependent plasticity.

Haptics in medicine and clinical skill acquisition

THE clinical skills of medical professionals rely strongly on the sense of touch, combined with anatomical and diagnostic knowledge. Haptic exploratory procedures allow the expert to detect anomalies via gross and fine palpation, squeezing, and contour following. Haptic feedback is also key to medical interventions, for example when an anaesthetist inserts an epidural needle, a surgeon makes an incision, a dental surgeon drills into a carious lesion, or a veterinarian sutures a wound. Yet, current trends in medical technology and training methods involve less haptic feedback to clinicians and trainees. For example, minimally invasive surgery removes the direct contact between the patient and clinician that gives rise to natural haptic feedback, and furthermore introduces scaling and rotational transforms that confuse the relationship between movements of the hand and the surgical site. Similarly, it is thought that computer-based medical simulation and training systems require high-resolution and realistic haptic feedback to the trainee for significant training transfer to occur. The science and technology of haptics thus has great potential to affect the performance of medical procedures and learning of clinical skills. This special section is about understanding

Perceived helplessness is associated with individual differences in the central motor output system

Learned helplessness is a maladaptive response to uncontrollable stress characterized by impaired motor escape responses, reduced motivation and learning deficits. There are important individual differences in the likelihood of becoming helpless following exposure to uncontrollable stress but little is known about the neural mechanisms underlying these individual differences. Here we used structural MRI to measure gray and white matter in individuals with chronic pain, a population at high risk for helplessness due to prolonged exposure to a poorly controlled stressor (pain). Given that self-reported helplessness is predictive of treatment outcomes in chronic pain, understanding such differences might provide valuable clinical insight. We found that the magnitude of self-reported helplessness correlated with cortical thickness in the supplementary motor area (SMA) and midcingulate cortex, regions implicated in cognitive aspects of motor behavior. We then examined the white matter connectivity of these regions and found that fractional anisotropy of connected white matter tracts along the corticospinal tract was associated with helplessness and mediated the relationship between SMA cortical thickness and helplessness. These data provide novel evidence that links individual differences in the motor output pathway with perceived helplessness over a chronic and poorly controlled stressor.

Self-ratings and observer-ratings of social skill: a manipulation of state social anxiety in anxious and non-anxious children

The role of state and trait anxiety on observer ratings of social skill and negatively biased self-perception of social skill was examined. Participants were aged between 7 and 13 years (mean=9.65; sd=1.77; N=102), 47 had a current anxiety diagnosis and 55 were non-anxious controls. Participants were randomly allocated to a high or low anxiety condition and asked to complete social tasks. Task instructions were adjusted across conditions to manipulate participants’ state anxiety. Observers rated anxious participants as having poorer social skills than non-anxious controls but there was no evidence that anxious participants exhibited a negative self-perception bias, relative to controls. However, as participants’ ratings of state anxiety increased, their perception of their performance became more negatively biased. The results suggest that anxious children may exhibit real impairments in social skill and that high levels of state anxiety can lead to biased judgements of social skills in anxious and non-anxious children.

A Guide to Office Clerical Time Standards

A Guide to Office Clerical Time Standards is an instructional performance piece based on a corporate manual from 1960. The pamphlet is focused on the time necessary for the accomplishment of minute labour procedures in the office, from the depressing and releasing of typewriter keys to the opening and closing of filing cabinet drawers. In the performance, seven costumed performers represent the different levels of management and employment while performing the actions described in the guide, accompanied by a live musical score. There has been much discussion of the changes to work in the west following the decline of post-Fordist service sector jobs. These increasingly emphasise the specificity of employees’ knowledge and cognitive skill. However, this greater flexibility and creativity at work has been accompanied by an opposite trajectory. The proletarisation of white collar work has given rise to more bureaucracy, target assessment and control for workers in previously looser creative professions, from academia to the arts. The midcentury office is the meeting point of these cultures, where the assembly line efficiency management of the factory meets the quantifying control of the knowledge economy. A Guide to Office Clerical Time Standards explores the survival of one regime into its successor following the lines of combined and uneven development that have turned the emancipatory promise of immaterial labour into the perma-temp hell of the cognitariat. The movement is accompanied by a score of guitar, bass and drums, the componenets of the rock ‘n’ roll music that rose from the car factories of the motor city and the cotton fields of the southern states to represent the same junction of expression and control.

Corticospinal tract integrity and lesion volume play different roles in chronic hemiparesis and its improvement through motor practice

Background. Initial evidence suggests that the integrity of the ipsilesional corticospinal tract (CST) after stroke is strongly related to motor function in the chronic state but not the treatment gain induced by motor rehabilitation. Objective. We examined the association of motor status and treatment benefit by testing patients with a wide range of severity of hemiparesis of the left and right upper extremity. Method. Diffusion tensor imaging was performed in 22 patients beyond 12 months after onset of stroke with severe to moderate hemiparesis. Motor function was tested before and after 2 weeks of modified constraint-induced movement therapy. Results. CST integrity, but not lesion volume, correlated with the motor ability measures of the Wolf Motor Function Test and the Motor Activity Log. No differences were found between left and right hemiparesis. Motor performance improved significantly with the treatment regime, and did so equally for patients with left and right arm paresis. However, treatment benefit was not associated with either CST integrity or lesion volume. Conclusion. CST integrity correlated best in this small trial with chronic long-term status but not treatment-induced improvements. The CST may play a different role in the mechanisms mediating long-term outcome compared to those underlying practice-induced gains after a chronic plateau in motor function.