Use of posterior predictive assessments to evaluate model fit in multilevel logistic regression

Assessing the fit of a model is an important final step in any statistical analysis, but this is not straightforward when complex discrete response models are used. Cross validation and posterior predictions have been suggested as methods to aid model criticism. In this paper a comparison is made between four methods of model predictive assessment in the context of a three level logistic regression model for clinical mastitis in dairy cattle; cross validation, a prediction using the full posterior predictive distribution and two “mixed” predictive methods that incorporate higher level random effects simulated from the underlying model distribution. Cross validation is considered a gold standard method but is computationally intensive and thus a comparison is made between posterior predictive assessments and cross validation. The analyses revealed that mixed prediction methods produced results close to cross validation whilst the full posterior predictive assessment gave predictions that were over-optimistic (closer to the observed disease rates) compared with cross validation. A mixed prediction method that simulated random effects from both higher levels was best at identifying the outlying level two (farm-year) units of interest. It is concluded that this mixed prediction method, simulating random effects from both higher levels, is straightforward and may be of value in model criticism of multilevel logistic regression, a technique commonly used for animal health data with a hierarchical structure.

Chatter avoidance in the milling of thin floors with bull-nose end mills: Model and stability diagrams

The milling of thin parts is a high added value operation where the machinist has to face the chatter problem. The study of the stability of these operations is a complex task due to the changing modal parameters as the part loses mass during the machining and the complex shape of the tools that are used. The present work proposes a methodology for chatter avoidance in the milling of flexible thin floors with a bull-nose end mill. First, a stability model for the milling of compliant systems in the tool axis direction with bull-nose end mills is presented. The contribution is the averaging method used to be able to use a linear model to predict the stability of the operation. Then, the procedure for the calculation of stability diagrams for the milling of thin floors is presented. The method is based on the estimation of the modal parameters of the part and the corresponding stability lobes during the machining. As in thin floor milling the depth of cut is already defined by the floor thickness previous to milling, the use of stability diagrams that relate the tool position along the tool-path with the spindle speed is proposed. Hence, the sequence of spindle speeds that the tool must have during the milling can be selected. Finally, this methodology has been validated by means of experimental tests.

An Innovation Model for Collaborative Networks of SOA-Based Software Providers

Part 5: Service Orientation in Collaborative Networks

Object detection and recognition in complex scenes

Dissertação de Mestrado, Engenharia Informática, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2014

Transport in the blood of an anti-tumor water-soluble rutheniun cyclopentadienyl complex: a fluorescence study on albumin binding

Dissertação de mestrado, Qualidade em Análises, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2014

Phosphoglucose isomerase variability of Cerastoderma glaucum as a model for testing the influence of environmental conditions and dispersal patterns through quantitative ecology approaches

Extreme conditions of coastal lagoons could directly modify the genetic patterns of species. The aim of this work was to investigate the influence of environmental conditions and small scale dispersal patterns on the phosphoglucose isomerase (PGI*) genetic variability of Cerastoderma glaucum from the Mar Menor coastal lagoon. For this purpose, 284 cockles were collected around the perimeter of the lagoon. Vertical polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis was used to scan for PGI* polymorphisms, giving a total of seven alleles. The spatial genetic distribution of the PGI* variability, which seems to be marked by the main circulation in the lagoon, discriminates four hydrological basins. In the central basin, a gradient of allelic composition reflects the circulation forced by the dominant winds and the main channel communicated to the open sea. This result is well supported by the salinity GAM model that defines this gradient. The other three basins are defined by the distribution of fine sand in a more complex model that tries to explain the isolation of the three sites localized inside these basins. The southern, western and northern basins show the lowest degree of interconnection and are considered the most confined areas of the Mar Menor lagoon. This situation agrees with the confinement theory for benthic assemblages in the lagoon. The greater degree of differentiation seen in the Isla del Ciervo population is probably due to recent human intervention on the nearby Marchamalo channel, which has been drained in recent years thus altering the influence of the Mediterranean Sea on the southern basin.

Chebanov law and Vakar formula in mathematical models of complex systems

Ecological models written in a mathematical language L(M) or model language, with a given style or methodology can be considered as a text. It is possible to apply statistical linguistic laws and the experimental results demonstrate that the behaviour of a mathematical model is the same of any literary text of any natural language. A text has the following characteristics: (a) the variables, its transformed functions and parameters are the lexic units or LUN of ecological models; (b) the syllables are constituted by a LUN, or a chain of them, separated by operating or ordering LUNs; (c) the flow equations are words; and (d) the distribution of words (LUM and CLUN) according to their lengths is based on a Poisson distribution, the Chebanov's law. It is founded on Vakar's formula, that is calculated likewise the linguistic entropy for L(M). We will apply these ideas over practical examples using MARIOLA model. In this paper it will be studied the problem of the lengths of the simple lexic units composed lexic units and words of text models, expressing these lengths in number of the primitive symbols, and syllables. The use of these linguistic laws renders it possible to indicate the degree of information given by an ecological model.

The Planned and the Emergent: An Alternative Model of Learning and Literacy

Within academic institutions, writing centers are uniquely situated, socially rich sites for exploring learning and literacy. I examine the work of the Michigan Tech Writing Center's UN 1002 World Cultures study teams primarily because student participants and Writing Center coaches are actively engaged in structuring their own learning and meaning-making processes. My research reveals that learning is closely linked to identity formation and leading the teams is an important component of the coaches' educational experiences. I argue that supporting this type of learning requires an expanded understanding of literacy and significant changes to how learning environments are conceptualized and developed. This ethnographic study draws on data collected from recordings and observations of one semester of team sessions, my own experiences as a team coach and UN 1002 teaching assistant, and interviews with Center coaches prior to their graduation. I argue that traditional forms of assessment and analysis emerging from individualized instruction models of learning cannot fully account for the dense configurations of social interactions identified in the Center's program. Instead, I view the Center as an open system and employ social theories of learning and literacy to uncover how the negotiation of meaning in one context influences and is influenced by structures and interactions within as well as beyond its boundaries. I focus on the program design, its enaction in practice, and how engagement in this type of writing center work influences coaches' learning trajectories. I conclude that, viewed as participation in a community of practice, the learning theory informing the program design supports identity formation —a key aspect of learning as argued by Etienne Wenger (1998). The findings of this study challenge misconceptions of peer learning both in writing centers and higher education that relegate peer tutoring to the role of support for individualized models of learning. Instead, this dissertation calls for consideration of new designs that incorporate peer learning as an integral component. Designing learning contexts that cultivate and support the formation of new identities is complex, involves a flexible and opportunistic design structure, and requires the availability of multiple forms of participation and connections across contexts.

Assessing Decision Making Skill in Complex and Dynamic Environments Using Representative and Simulated Tasks

Traditional decision making research has often focused on one's ability to choose from a set of prefixed options, ignoring the process by which decision makers generate courses of action (i.e., options) in-situ (Klein, 1993). In complex and dynamic domains, this option generation process is particularly critical to understanding how successful decisions are made (Zsambok & Klein, 1997). When generating response options for oneself to pursue (i.e., during the intervention-phase of decision making) previous research has supported quick and intuitive heuristics, such as the Take-The-First heuristic (TTF; Johnson & Raab, 2003). When generating predictive options for others in the environment (i.e., during the assessment-phase of decision making), previous research has supported the situational-model-building process described by Long Term Working Memory theory (LTWM; see Ward, Ericsson, & Williams, 2013). In the first three experiments, the claims of TTF and LTWM are tested during assessment- and intervention-phase tasks in soccer. To test what other environmental constraints may dictate the use of these cognitive mechanisms, the claims of these models are also tested in the presence and absence of time pressure. In addition to understanding the option generation process, it is important that researchers in complex and dynamic domains also develop tools that can be used by `real-world' professionals. For this reason, three more experiments were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of a new online assessment of perceptual-cognitive skill in soccer. This test differentiated between skill groups and predicted performance on a previously established test and predicted option generation behavior. The test also outperformed domain-general cognitive tests, but not a domain-specific knowledge test when predicting skill group membership. Implications for theory and training, and future directions for the development of applied tools are discussed.

Developing an Enhanced Model for Combined Heat and Air Infiltration Energy Simulation

The need for efficient, sustainable, and planned utilization of resources is ever more critical. In the U.S. alone, buildings consume 34.8 Quadrillion (1015) BTU of energy annually at a cost of $1.4 Trillion. Of this energy 58% is utilized for heating and air conditioning. Several building energy analysis tools have been developed to assess energy demands and lifecycle energy costs in buildings. Such analyses are also essential for an efficient HVAC design that overcomes the pitfalls of an under/over-designed system. DOE-2 is among the most widely known full building energy analysis models. It also constitutes the simulation engine of other prominent software such as eQUEST, EnergyPro, PowerDOE. Therefore, it is essential that DOE-2 energy simulations be characterized by high accuracy. Infiltration is an uncontrolled process through which outside air leaks into a building. Studies have estimated infiltration to account for up to 50% of a building’s energy demand. This, considered alongside the annual cost of buildings energy consumption, reveals the costs of air infiltration. It also stresses the need that prominent building energy simulation engines accurately account for its impact. In this research the relative accuracy of current air infiltration calculation methods is evaluated against an intricate Multiphysics Hygrothermal CFD building envelope analysis. The full-scale CFD analysis is based on a meticulous representation of cracking in building envelopes and on real-life conditions. The research found that even the most advanced current infiltration methods, including in DOE-2, are at up to 96.13% relative error versus CFD analysis. An Enhanced Model for Combined Heat and Air Infiltration Simulation was developed. The model resulted in 91.6% improvement in relative accuracy over current models. It reduces error versus CFD analysis to less than 4.5% while requiring less than 1% of the time required for such a complex hygrothermal analysis. The algorithm used in our model was demonstrated to be easy to integrate into DOE-2 and other engines as a standalone method for evaluating infiltration heat loads. This will vastly increase the accuracy of such simulation engines while maintaining their speed and ease of use characteristics that make them very widely used in building design.

Climate, Land Use and Hydrologic Sensitivities of Stormwater Quantity and Quality in Complex Coastal Urban Watersheds

The study analyzed hydro-climatic and land use sensitivities of stormwater runoff and quality in the complex coastal urban watershed of Miami River Basin, Florida by developing a Storm Water Management Model (EPA SWMM 5). Regression-based empirical models were also developed to explain stream water quality in relation to internal (land uses and hydrology) and external (upstream contribution, seawater) sources and drivers in six highly urbanized canal basins of Southeast Florida. Stormwater runoff and quality were most sensitive to rainfall, imperviousness, and conversion of open lands/parks to residential, commercial and industrial areas. In-stream dissolved oxygen and total phosphorus in the watersheds were dictated by internal stressors while external stressors were dominant for total nitrogen and specific conductance. The research findings and tools will be useful for proactive monitoring and management of storm runoff and urban stream water quality under the changing climate and environment in South Florida and around the world.

GIS-integrated mathematical modeling of social phenomena at macro- and micro- levels—a multivariate geographically-weighted regression model for identifying locations vulnerable to hosting terrorist safe-houses: France as case study

Adaptability and invisibility are hallmarks of modern terrorism, and keeping pace with its dynamic nature presents a serious challenge for societies throughout the world. Innovations in computer science have incorporated applied mathematics to develop a wide array of predictive models to support the variety of approaches to counterterrorism. Predictive models are usually designed to forecast the location of attacks. Although this may protect individual structures or locations, it does not reduce the threat—it merely changes the target. While predictive models dedicated to events or social relationships receive much attention where the mathematical and social science communities intersect, models dedicated to terrorist locations such as safe-houses (rather than their targets or training sites) are rare and possibly nonexistent. At the time of this research, there were no publically available models designed to predict locations where violent extremists are likely to reside. This research uses France as a case study to present a complex systems model that incorporates multiple quantitative, qualitative and geospatial variables that differ in terms of scale, weight, and type. Though many of these variables are recognized by specialists in security studies, there remains controversy with respect to their relative importance, degree of interaction, and interdependence. Additionally, some of the variables proposed in this research are not generally recognized as drivers, yet they warrant examination based on their potential role within a complex system. This research tested multiple regression models and determined that geographically-weighted regression analysis produced the most accurate result to accommodate non-stationary coefficient behavior, demonstrating that geographic variables are critical to understanding and predicting the phenomenon of terrorism. This dissertation presents a flexible prototypical model that can be refined and applied to other regions to inform stakeholders such as policy-makers and law enforcement in their efforts to improve national security and enhance quality-of-life.

Development of a Coupling Model for Fluid-Structure Interaction using the Mesh-free Finite Element Method and the Lattice Boltzmann Method

In the presented thesis work, the meshfree method with distance fields was coupled with the lattice Boltzmann method to obtain solutions of fluid-structure interaction problems. The thesis work involved development and implementation of numerical algorithms, data structure, and software. Numerical and computational properties of the coupling algorithm combining the meshfree method with distance fields and the lattice Boltzmann method were investigated. Convergence and accuracy of the methodology was validated by analytical solutions. The research was focused on fluid-structure interaction solutions in complex, mesh-resistant domains as both the lattice Boltzmann method and the meshfree method with distance fields are particularly adept in these situations. Furthermore, the fluid solution provided by the lattice Boltzmann method is massively scalable, allowing extensive use of cutting edge parallel computing resources to accelerate this phase of the solution process. The meshfree method with distance fields allows for exact satisfaction of boundary conditions making it possible to exactly capture the effects of the fluid field on the solid structure.

A novel latent factor model for recommender system

Matrix factorization (MF) has evolved as one of the better practice to handle sparse data in field of recommender systems. Funk singular value decomposition (SVD) is a variant of MF that exists as state-of-the-art method that enabled winning the Netflix prize competition. The method is widely used with modifications in present day research in field of recommender systems. With the potential of data points to grow at very high velocity, it is prudent to devise newer methods that can handle such data accurately as well as efficiently than Funk-SVD in the context of recommender system. In view of the growing data points, I propose a latent factor model that caters to both accuracy and efficiency by reducing the number of latent features of either users or items making it less complex than Funk-SVD, where latent features of both users and items are equal and often larger. A comprehensive empirical evaluation of accuracy on two publicly available, amazon and ml-100 k datasets reveals the comparable accuracy and lesser complexity of proposed methods than Funk-SVD.

Physicochemical complexity in complex chemical systems

Self-replication and compartmentalization are two central properties thought to be essential for minimal life, and understanding how such processes interact in the emergence of complex reaction networks is crucial to exploring the development of complexity in chemistry and biology. Autocatalysis can emerge from multiple different mechanisms such as formation of an initiator, template self-replication and physical autocatalysis (where micelles formed from the reaction product solubilize the reactants, leading to higher local concentrations and therefore higher rates). Amphiphiles are also used in artificial life studies to create protocell models such as micelles, vesicles and oil-in-water droplets, and can increase reaction rates by encapsulation of reactants. So far, no template self-replicator exists which is capable of compartmentalization, or transferring this molecular scale phenomenon to micro or macro-scale assemblies. Here a system is demonstrated where an amphiphilic imine catalyses its own formation by joining a non-polar alkyl tail group with a polar carboxylic acid head group to form a template, which was shown to form reverse micelles by Dynamic Light Scattering (DLS). The kinetics of this system were investigated by 1H NMR spectroscopy, showing clearly that a template self-replication mechanism operates, though there was no evidence that the reverse micelles participated in physical autocatalysis. Active oil droplets, composed from a mixture of insoluble organic compounds in an aqueous sub-phase, can undergo processes such as division, self-propulsion and chemotaxis, and are studied as models for minimal cells, or protocells. Although in most cases the Marangoni effect is responsible for the forces on the droplet, the behaviour of the droplet depends heavily on the exact composition. Though theoretical models are able to calculate the forces on a droplet, to model a mixture of oils on an aqueous surface where compounds from the oil phase are dissolving and diffusing through the aqueous phase is beyond current computational capability. The behaviour of a droplet in an aqueous phase can only be discovered through experiment, though it is determined by the droplet's composition. By using an evolutionary algorithm and a liquid handling robot to conduct droplet experiments and decide which compositions to test next, entirely autonomously, the composition of the droplet becomes a chemical genome capable of evolution. The selection is carried out according to a fitness function, which ranks the formulation based on how well it conforms to the chosen fitness criteria (e.g. movement or division). Over successive generations, significant increases in fitness are achieved, and this increase is higher with more components (i.e. greater complexity). Other chemical processes such as chemiluminescence and gelation were investigated in active oil droplets, demonstrating the possibility of controlling chemical reactions by selective droplet fusion. Potential future applications for this might include combinatorial chemistry, or additional fitness goals for the genetic algorithm. Combining the self-replication and the droplet protocells research, it was demonstrated that the presence of the amphiphilic replicator lowers the interfacial tension between droplets of a reaction mixture in organic solution and the alkaline aqueous phase, causing them to divide. Periodic sampling by a liquid handling robot revealed that the extent of droplet fission increased as the reaction progressed, producing more individual protocells with increased self-replication. This demonstrates coupling of the molecular scale phenomenon of template self-replication to a macroscale physicochemical effect.