Bayesian model averaging for harmful algal bloom prediction

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a worldwide problem that have been increasing in frequency and extent over the past several decades. HABs severely damage aquatic ecosystems by destroying benthic habitat, reducing invertebrate and fish populations and affecting larger species such as dugong that rely on seagrasses for food. Few statistical models for predicting HAB occurrences have been developed, and in common with most predictive models in ecology, those that have been developed do not fully account for uncertainties in parameters and model structure. This makes management decisions based on these predictions more risky than might be supposed. We used a probit time series model and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to predict occurrences of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a toxic cyanophyte, in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia. We found a suite of useful predictors for HAB occurrence, with Temperature figuring prominently in models with the majority of posterior support, and a model consisting of the single covariate average monthly minimum temperature showed by far the greatest posterior support. A comparison of alternative model averaging strategies was made with one strategy using the full posterior distribution and a simpler approach that utilised the majority of the posterior distribution for predictions but with vastly fewer models. Both BMA approaches showed excellent predictive performance with little difference in their predictive capacity. Applications of BMA are still rare in ecology, particularly in management settings. This study demonstrates the power of BMA as an important management tool that is capable of high predictive performance while fully accounting for both parameter and model uncertainty.

Body-shadowing effects in indoor MIMO-OFDM channel capacity

We investigate Multiple-Input and Multiple-Output Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (MIMO-OFDM) systems behavior in indoor populated environments that have line-of-site (LoS) between transmitter and receiver arrays. The in-house built MIMO-OFDM packet transmission demonstrator, equipped with four transmitters and four receivers, has been utilized to perform channel measurements at 5.2 GHz. Measurements have been performed using 0 to 3 pedestrians with different antenna arrays (2 £ 2, 3 £ 3 and 4 £ 4). The maximum average capacity for the 2x2 deterministic Fixed SNR scenario is 8.5 dB compared to the 4x4 deterministic scenario that has a maximum average capacity of 16.2 dB, thus an increment of 8 dB in average capacity has been measured when the array size increases from 2x2 to 4x4. In addition a regular variation has been observed for Random scenarios compared to the deterministic scenarios. An incremental trend in average channel capacity for both deterministic and random pedestrian movements has been observed with increasing number of pedestrian and antennas. In deterministic scenarios, the variations in average channel capacity are more noticeable than for the random scenarios due to a more prolonged and controlled body-shadowing effect. Moreover due to the frequent Los blocking and fixed transmission power a slight decrement have been observed in the spread between the maximum and minimum capacity with random fixed Tx power scenario.

The new world of work and employment: fitness workers and what they want from the employment relationship

This paper reports on an empirically based study of the Queensland (Australia) health and fitness industry over 15 years (1993 -2008). This study traces the development of the new occupation of fitness instructor in a service industry which has evolved si nce the 1980s and is embedded in values of consumption and individualism. It is the new world of work. The data from the 1993 study was historically significant, capturing the conditions o f employment in an unregulated setting prior to the introduction of the first industrial a ward in that industry in 1994. Fitness workers bargained directly with employers over all a spects of the employment relationship without the constraints of industrial regulation or the presence of trade unions. The substantive outcomes of the employment relationship were a direct reflection of m anagerial prerogative and worker orientation and preference, and did not reflect the rewards and outcomes traditionally found in Australian workplaces. While the focus of the 1993 research was on exploring the employment relationship in a deregulated environment, an unusual phenomenon was identified: fitness workers happily trading-off what would be considere d standard working conditions for the opportunity to work (‘take the stage’). Since then, several streams of literature have evolved providing a new context for understanding this phenomenon in the fitness industry, including: the sociology of the body (Shilling 1993; Turner 1996); emotional (Hochschild 1984) and aesthetic labour (Warhurst et al 2000); the so cial relations of production and space (Lefebvre 1991; Moss 1995); body history (Helps 2007); the sociology of consumption (Saunders 1988; Baudrillard 1998; Ritzer 2004); and work identity (Du Gay 1996; Strangleman 2004). The 2008 survey instrument replicated the 1993 study but was additionally informed b y the new literature. Surveys were sent to 310 commercial fitness centres and 4,800 fitness workers across Queensland. Worker orientation appears unchanged, and industry working conditions still seem atypical despite regulation si nce 1994. We argue that for many fitness workers the goal is to gain access to the fitness centre economy. For this they are willing to trade-off standard conditions of employment, and exchange traditional employm ent rewards for m ore intrinsic psycho-social rewards gained the through e xp o sure of their physical capital (Bourdieu 1984) o r bo dily prowess to the adoration o f their gazing clients. Building on the tradition of emotional labour and aesthetic labour, this study introduces the concept of ocularcentric labour: a state in which labour’s quest for the psychosocial rewards gained from their own body image shapes the employment relationship. With ocularcentric labour the p sycho-social rewards have greater value for the worker than ‘hard’, core conditions of employment, and are a significant factor in bargaining and outcomes, often substituting fo r direct earnings. The wo rkforce profile (young, female, casual) and their expectations (psycho-social rewards of ado ration and celebrity) challenge traditional trade unions in terms of what they can deliver, given the fitness workers’ willingness to trade-off minimum conditions, hard-won by unions.

1,10-phenanthrolin-1-ium 2-carboxy-4,5-dichlorobenzoate

In the structure of the 1:1 proton-transfer compound of 1,10-phenanthroline with 4,5-dichlorophthalic acid, C12H9N2+ C8H3Cl2O4-, determined at 130 K, the 1,10-phenanthroline cation and the hydrogen 4,5-dichlorophthalate anion associate through a single N-H...O(carboxyl) hydrogen bond giving discrete units which have no extension except through a number of weak cation C-H...O(anion) associations and weak cation--anion aromatic ring pi-pi interactions [minimum centroid separation, 3.6815(12)A]. The anions are essentially planar [maximum deviation 0.214(1)A (a carboxyl O)] with the syn-related H atom of the carboxyl group forming a short intramolecular O-H...O(carboxyl) hydrogen bond.

Fatal motorcycle crashes in north Queensland : characteristics and potential interventions

Aims: The Rural and Remote Road Safety Study (RRRSS) addresses a recognised need for greater research on road trauma in rural and remote Australia, the costs of which are disproportionately high compared with urban areas. The 5-year multi-phase study with whole-of-government support concluded in June 2008. Drawing on RRRSS data, we analysed fatal motorcycle crashes which occurred over 39 months to provide a description of crash characteristics, contributing factors and people involved. The descriptive analysis and discussion may inform development of tailored motorcycle safety interventions. Methods: RRRSS criteria sought vehicle crashes resulting in death or hospitalisation for 24 hours minimum of at least 1 person aged 16 years or over, in the study area defined roughly as the Queensland area north from Bowen in the east and Boulia in the west (excluding Townsville and Cairns urban areas). Fatal motorcycle crashes were selected from the RRRSS dataset. Analysis considered medical data covering injury types and severity, evidence of alcohol, drugs and prior medical conditions, as well as crash descriptions supplied by police to Queensland Transport on contributing circumstances, vehicle types, environmental conditions and people involved. Crash data were plotted in a geographic information system (MapInfo) for spatial analysis. Results: There were 23 deaths from 22 motorcycle crashes on public roads meeting RRRSS criteria. Of these, half were single vehicle crashes and half involved 2 or more vehicles. In contrast to general patterns for driver/rider age distribution in crashes, riders below 25 years of age were represented proportionally within the population. Riders in their thirties comprised 41% of fatalities, with a further 36% accounted for by riders in their fifties. 18 crashes occurred in the Far North Statistical Division (SD), with 2 crashes in both the Northern and North West SDs. Behavioural factors comprised the vast majority of contributing circumstances cited by police, with adverse environmental conditions noted in only 4 cases. Conclusions: Fatal motorcycle crashes were more likely to involve another vehicle and less likely to involve a young rider than non-fatal crashes recorded by the RRRSS. Rider behaviour contributed to the majority of crashes and should be a major focus of research, education and policy development, while other road users’ behaviour and awareness also remains important. With 68% of crashes occurring on major and secondary roads within a 130km radius of Cairns, efforts should focus on this geographic area.

Numerical analyses of crack spacing due to shrinkage in reinforced concrete slabs

Shrinkage cracking is commonly observed in concrete flat structures such as highway pavements, slabs, and bridge decks. Crack spacing due to shrinkage has received considerable attention for many years [1-3]. However, some aspects concerning the mechanism of crack spacing still remain un-clear. Though it is well known that the interval of the cracks generally falls with a range, no satisfactory explanation has been put forward as to why the minimum spacing exists.

Reading e-mails

One of most modern professional jobs minimum requirements is to handle and manage the World Wide Web [WWW] and communications such as Electric Mail [email]. In my office all staff including, administration, marketing, management, and all levels of quantity surveyors, ranging from cadet to director must manage electric communication. One of many aspects in my professional development I have struggled with is managing my tasks dictated to me through e-mail.

Achieving effective supervision

Supervision probably does have benefits both for the maintenance and improvement of clinical skills and for job satisfaction, but the data are very thin and almost non-existent in the area of alcohol and other drugs ser vices. Because of the potential complexity of objectives and roles in super vision, a structured agreement appears to be an important part of the effective supervision relationship. Because sessions can degenerate easily into unstructured socialization, agendas and session objectives may also be important. While a working alliance based on mutual respect and trust is an essential base for the supervision relationship, procedures for direct observation of clinical skills, demonstration of new procedures and skills practice with detailed feedback appear critical to super vision’s impact on practice. To ensure effective supervision, there needs not only to be a minimum of personnel and resources, but also a compatibility with the values and procedures of management and staff, access to supervision training and consultation and sufficient incentives to ensure it continues.

High-flux ceramic membranes with a nanomesh of metal oxide nanofibers

Traditional ceramic separation membranes, which are fabricated by applying colloidal suspensions of metal hydroxides to porous supports, tend to suffer from pinholes and cracks that seriously affect their quality. Other intrinsic problems for these membranes include dramatic losses of flux when the pore sizes are reduced to enhance selectivity and dead-end pores that make no contribution to filtration. In this work, we propose a new strategy for addressing these problems by constructing a hierarchically structured separation layer on a porous substrate using large titanate nanofibers and smaller boehmite nanofibers. The nanofibers are able to divide large voids into smaller ones without forming dead-end pores and with the minimum reduction of the total void volume. The separation layer of nanofibers has a porosity of over 70% of its volume, whereas the separation layer in conventional ceramic membranes has a porosity below 36% and inevitably includes dead-end pores that make no contribution to the flux. This radical change in membrane texture greatly enhances membrane performance. The resulting membranes were able to filter out 95.3% of 60-nm particles from a 0.01 wt % latex while maintaining a relatively high flux of between 800 and 1000 L/m2·h, under a low driving pressure (20 kPa). Such flow rates are orders of magnitude greater than those of conventional membranes with equal selectivity. Moreover, the flux was stable at approximately 800 L/m2·h with a selectivity of more than 95%, even after six repeated runs of filtration and calcination. Use of different supports, either porous glass or porous alumina, had no substantial effect on the performance of the membranes; thus, it is possible to construct the membranes from a variety of supports without compromising functionality. The Darcy equation satisfactorily describes the correlation between the filtration flux and the structural parameters of the new membranes. The assembly of nanofiber meshes to combine high flux with excellent selectivity is an exciting new direction in membrane fabrication.

Harnessing assessment and feedback in the first year to support learning success, engagement and retention

It has been argued that intentional first year curriculum design has a critical role to play in enhancing first year student engagement, success and retention (Kift, 2008). A fundamental first year curriculum objective should be to assist students to make the successful transition to assessment in higher education. Scott (2006) has identified that ‘relevant, consistent and integrated assessment … [with] prompt and constructive feedback’ are particularly relevant to student retention generally; while Nicol (2007) suggests that ‘lack of clarity regarding expectations in the first year, low levels of teacher feedback and poor motivation’ are key issues in the first year. At the very minimum, if we expect first year students to become independent and self-managing learners, they need to be supported in their early development and acquisition of tertiary assessment literacies (Orrell, 2005). Critical to this attainment is the necessity to alleviate early anxieties around assessment information, instructions, guidance, and performance. This includes, for example:  inducting students thoroughly into the academic languages and assessment genres they will encounter as the vehicles for evidencing learning success; and  making expectations about the quality of this evidence clear. Most importantly, students should receive regular formative feedback of their work early in their program of study to aid their learning and to provide information to both students and teachers on progress and achievement. Leveraging research conducted under an ALTC Senior Fellowship that has sought to articulate a research-based 'transition pedagogy' (Kift & Nelson, 2005) – a guiding philosophy for intentional first year curriculum design and support that carefully scaffolds and mediates the first year learning experience for contemporary heterogeneous cohorts – this paper will discuss theoretical and practical strategies and examples that should be of assistance in implementing good assessment and feedback practices across a range of disciplines in the first year.

In search of a hidden long-term isolated sub-chondritic 142Nd/144Nd reservoir in the deep mantle : implications for the Nd isotope systematics of the Earth

Here we search for evidence of the existence of a sub-chondritic 142Nd/144Nd reservoir that balances the Nd isotope chemistry of the Earth relative to chondrites. If present, it may reside in the source region of deeply sourced mantle plume material. We suggest that lavas from Hawai’i with coupled elevations in 186Os/188Os and 187Os/188Os, from Iceland that represent mixing of upper mantle and lower mantle components, and from Gough with sub-chondritic 143Nd/144Nd and high 207Pb/206Pb, are favorable samples that could reflect mantle sources that have interacted with an Early-Enriched Reservoir (EER) with sub-chondritic 142Nd/144Nd. High-precision Nd isotope analyses of basalts from Hawai’i, Iceland and Gough demonstrate no discernable 142Nd/144Nd deviation from terrestrial standards. These data are consistent with previous high-precision Nd isotope analysis of recent mantle-derived samples and demonstrate that no mantle-derived material to date provides evidence for the existence of an EER in the mantle. We then evaluate mass balance in the Earth with respect to both 142Nd/144Nd and 143Nd/144Nd. The Nd isotope systematics of EERs are modeled for different sizes and timing of formation relative to ε143Nd estimates of the reservoirs in the μ142Nd = 0 Earth, where μ142Nd is ((measured 142Nd/144Nd/terrestrial standard 142Nd/144Nd)−1 * 10−6) and the μ142Nd = 0 Earth is the proportion of the silicate Earth with 142Nd/144Nd indistinguishable from the terrestrial standard. The models indicate that it is not possible to balance the Earth with respect to both 142Nd/144Nd and 143Nd/144Nd unless the μ142Nd = 0 Earth has a ε143Nd within error of the present-day Depleted Mid-ocean ridge basalt Mantle source (DMM). The 4567 Myr age 142Nd–143Nd isochron for the Earth intersects μ142Nd = 0 at ε143Nd of +8 ± 2 providing a minimum ε143Nd for the μ142Nd = 0 Earth. The high ε143Nd of the μ142Nd = 0 Earth is confirmed by the Nd isotope systematics of Archean mantle-derived rocks that consistently have positive ε143Nd. If the EER formed early after solar system formation (0–70 Ma) continental crust and DMM can be complementary reservoirs with respect to Nd isotopes, with no requirement for significant additional reservoirs. If the EER formed after 70 Ma then the μ142Nd = 0 Earth must have a bulk ε143Nd more radiogenic than DMM and additional high ε143Nd material is required to balance the Nd isotope systematics of the Earth.

Guanidinium quinoline-2-carboxylate

In the structure of the guanidinium salt of quinaldic acid, CH6N3+ C10H6NO2-, the asymmetric unit contains two independent cations and anions having similar inter-species hydrogen-bonding environments which include cyclic R2/2(8), R1/2(6) and R2/1(5) associations. These and additional weak aromatic ring pi-pi interactions [minimum ring centroid separation, 3.6621(16)A] give a two-dimensional layered structure.

Application of cognitive-behavioural family intervention for schizophrenia in multidisciplinary teams : what can the matter be?

Surveyed 45 therapists who had participated in a family intervention for schizophrenia training program to examine the difficulties they had encountered, their recall of the intervention strategies, and the extent that they thought the approach had become integrated in their everyday work. Between 6 mo and 3 yrs after the family training, Ss reported the number of families they had systematically treated, and the difficulties they had encountered. Allowance of time to undertake the intervention, afterhours scheduling, and illness or holidays presented particular difficulties. Only 4% reported that their knowledge of behavioral techniques was a problem, but in a written test most therapists did not display minimum recall of the material of cognitive therapy, social skills training, or behavioral strategies. The study demonstrated significant problems in disseminating cognitive-behavioral approaches to multidisciplinary settings.

Flexural behaviour and design of cold-formed steel beams with rectangular hollow flanges

Until recently, the hot-rolled steel members have been recognized as the most popular and widely used steel group, but in recent times, the use of cold-formed high strength steel members has rapidly increased. However, the structural behavior of light gauge high strength cold-formed steel members characterized by various buckling modes is not yet fully understood. The current cold-formed steel sections such as C- and Z-sections are commonly used because of their simple forming procedures and easy connections, but they suffer from certain buckling modes. It is therefore important that these buckling modes are either delayed or eliminated to increase the ultimate capacity of these members. This research is therefore aimed at developing a new cold-formed steel beam with two torsionally rigid rectangular hollow flanges and a slender web formed using intermittent screw fastening to enhance the flexural capacity while maintaining a minimum fabrication cost. This thesis describes a detailed investigation into the structural behavior of this new Rectangular Hollow Flange Beam (RHFB), subjected to flexural action The first phase of this research included experimental investigations using thirty full scale lateral buckling tests and twenty two section moment capacity tests using specially designed test rigs to simulate the required loading and support conditions. A detailed description of the experimental methods, RHFB failure modes including local, lateral distortional and lateral torsional buckling modes, and moment capacity results is presented. A comparison of experimental results with the predictions from the current design rules and other design methods is also given. The second phase of this research involved a methodical and comprehensive investigation aimed at widening the scope of finite element analysis to investigate the buckling and ultimate failure behaviours of RHFBs subjected to flexural actions. Accurate finite element models simulating the physical conditions of both lateral buckling and section moment capacity tests were developed. Comparison of experimental and finite element analysis results showed that the buckling and ultimate failure behaviour of RHFBs can be simulated well using appropriate finite element models. Finite element models simulating ideal simply supported boundary conditions and a uniform moment loading were also developed in order to use in a detailed parametric study. The parametric study results were used to review the current design rules and to develop new design formulae for RHFBs subjected to local, lateral distortional and lateral torsional buckling effects. Finite element analysis results indicate that the discontinuity due to screw fastening has a noticeable influence only for members in the intermediate slenderness region. Investigations into different combinations of thicknesses in the flange and web indicate that increasing the flange thickness is more effective than web thickness in enhancing the flexural capacity of RHFBs. The current steel design standards, AS 4100 (1998) and AS/NZS 4600 (1996) are found sufficient to predict the section moment capacity of RHFBs. However, the results indicate that the AS/NZS 4600 is more accurate for slender sections whereas AS 4100 is more accurate for compact sections. The finite element analysis results further indicate that the current design rules given in AS/NZS 4600 is adequate in predicting the member moment capacity of RHFBs subject to lateral torsional buckling effects. However, they were inadequate in predicting the capacities of RHFBs subject to lateral distortional buckling effects. This thesis has therefore developed a new design formula to predict the lateral distortional buckling strength of RHFBs. Overall, this thesis has demonstrated that the innovative RHFB sections can perform well as economically and structurally efficient flexural members. Structural engineers and designers should make use of the new design rules and the validated existing design rules to design the most optimum RHFB sections depending on the type of applications. Intermittent screw fastening method has also been shown to be structurally adequate that also minimises the fabrication cost. Product manufacturers and builders should be able to make use of this in their applications.

Design of self-turning controllers for two terminal HVDC link

This paper presents the design of self-tuning controllers for a two terminal HVDC link. The controllers are designed utilizing a novel discrete-time converter model based on multirate sampling. The nature of converter firing system necessitates the development of a two-step ahead self-tuning control strategy. A two terminal HVDC system study has been carried out to show the effectiveness of the control strategies proposed which include the design of minimum variance controller, pole assigned controller and PLQG controller. The coordinated control of a two terminal HVDC system has been established deriving the signal from inverter end current and voltage which has been estimated based on the measurements of rectifier end quantities only realized through the robust reduced order observer. A well known scaled down sample system data has been selected for studies and the controllers designed have been tested for worst conditions. The performance of self-tuning controllers has been evaluated through digital simulation.