Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in São Paulo, Brazil

This work is an assessment of frequency of extreme values (EVs) of daily rainfall in the city of São Paulo. Brazil, over the period 1933-2005, based on the peaks-over-threshold (POT) and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. Usually. a GPD model is fitted to a sample of POT Values Selected With a constant threshold. However. in this work we use time-dependent thresholds, composed of relatively large p quantities (for example p of 0.97) of daily rainfall amounts computed from all available data. Samples of POT values were extracted with several Values of p. Four different GPD models (GPD-1, GPD-2, GPD-3. and GDP-4) were fitted to each one of these samples by the maximum likelihood (ML) method. The shape parameter was assumed constant for the four models, but time-varying covariates were incorporated into scale parameter of GPD-2. GPD-3, and GPD-4, describing annual cycle in GPD-2. linear trend in GPD-3, and both annual cycle and linear trend in GPD-4. The GPD-1 with constant scale and shape parameters is the simplest model. For identification of the best model among the four models WC used rescaled Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) with second-order bias correction. This criterion isolates GPD-3 as the best model, i.e. the one with positive linear trend in the scale parameter. The slope of this trend is significant compared to the null hypothesis of no trend, for about 98% confidence level. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test also showed presence of positive trend in the annual frequency of excess over high thresholds. with p-value being virtually zero. Therefore. there is strong evidence that high quantiles of daily rainfall in the city of São Paulo have been increasing in magnitude and frequency over time. For example. 0.99 quantiles of daily rainfall amount have increased by about 40 mm between 1933 and 2005. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Estimates of genetic parameters, and cluster and principal components analyses of breeding values related to egg production traits in a White Leghorn population

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A Bayesian Analysis of Spectral ARMA Model

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Ancestral polymorphism and recent invasion of transposable elements in Drosophila species

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Heritability estimates and genetic correlations for body weight and scrotal circumference adjusted to 12 and 18 months of age for male Nellore cattle

Heritability estimates and genetic correlations were obtained for body weight and scrotal circumference, adjusted, respectively, to 12 (BW12 and SC12) and 18 (BW18 and SC18) months of age, for 10 742 male Nellore cattle. The adjustments to SC12 and SC18 were made using a nonlinear logistic function, while BW12 and BW18 were obtained by linear adjustment. The contemporary groups (CGs) were defined from animals born on the same farm, in the same year and birth season. The mean heritability estimates obtained using the restricted maximum likelihood method in bi-trait analysis were 0.25, 0.25, 0.29 and 0.42 for BW12 BW18, SC12 and SC18, respectively. The genetic correlations were 0.30 +/- 0.11, 0.21 +/- 0.13, 0.21 +/- 0.11, -0.08 +/- 0.15, 0.16 +/- 0.12 and 0.89 +/- 0.04 between the traits BW12 and BW18; BW12 and SC12; BW12 and SC18; BW18 and SC12; BW18 and SC18; and SC12 and SC18. The heritability for SC18 was considerably greater than for SC12 suggesting that this should be included as a selection criterion. The genetic correlation between BW18 and SC12 was close to zero, indicating that these traits did not influence each other The contrary occurred between SC12 and SC18, indicating that selection using one of these could alter the other Because of the mean magnitudes of heritabilities in the various measurements of weight and scrotal perimeter it is suggested that the practice of individual selection for these traits is possible.

Efeitos Ambientais sobre Ganho de Peso no Período do Nascimento ao Desmame em Bovinos da Raça Nelore

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Fatores de Correção para Ganho de Peso Médio Diário no Período do Nascimento ao Desmame em Bovinos da Raça Nelore

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Repeatability and heritability of response to superovulation in Holstein cows

The objective of this study was to estimate the relative effects of genetic and phenotypic factors on the efficacy and efficiency of superovulation for Holstein-Friesian cows reared in Brazil. A database, established by the Associacao Brasileira de Criadores de Bovinos da Raca Holandesa, consisting of a total of 5387 superovulations of 2941 cows distributed over 473 herds and sired by 690 bulls was used for the analysis. The records were analyzed by MTDFREML (Multiple Trait Derivative-Free Restricted Maximum Likelihood), using a repeatability animal model. The fixed effects included in the model were contemporaneous group (veterinarian, herd, year and season of the superovulation); number of semen doses; cow age; and superovulation order. The estimated repeatability of the number of the transferable embryos was low (0.13), and the estimated heritability was 0.03. These results indicate that environmental factors play a critical role in the response of a cow to a superovulation treatment. There is little evidence that future responses to superovulation by individual females can be predicted by previous treatment(s) or that superovulation response is an heritable trait.

Assessing relationships between genetic evaluations using robust regression with an application to holsteins in Uruguay

Globalization of dairy cattle breeding has created a need for international sire proofs. Some early methods for converting proofs from one population to another are based on simple linear regression. An alternative robust regression method based on the t-distribution is presented, and maximum likelihood and Bayesian techniques for analysis are described, including the situation in which some proofs are missing. Procedures were used to investigate the relationship between Holstein sire proofs obtained by two Uruguayan genetic evaluation programs. The results suggest that conversion equations developed from data including only sires having proofs in both populations can lead to distorted results, relative to estimates obtained using techniques for incomplete data. There was evidence of non-normality of regression residuals, which constitutes an additional source of bias. A robust estimator may not solve all problems, but can provide simple conversion equations that are less sensitive to outlying proofs and to departures from assumptions.

Inferences about the coefficient of correlation in the standard bivariate normal distribution

The study of the association between two random variables that have a joint normal distribution is of interest in applied statistics; for example, in statistical genetics. This article, targeted to applied statisticians, addresses inferences about the coefficient of correlation (ρ) in the bivariate normal and standard bivariate normal distributions using likelihood, frequentist, and Baycsian perspectives. Some results are surprising. For instance, the maximum likelihood estimator and the posterior distribution of ρ in the standard bivariate normal distribution do not follow directly from results for a general bivariate normal distribution. An example employing bootstrap and rejection sampling procedures is used to illustrate some of the peculiarities.

Affinities of the Saw-billed Hermit (Ramphodon naevius) determined by cytochrome-b sequence data

We sequenced 912 bp of the cytochrome-b gene to examine phylogenetic relationships of the enigmatic Saw-billed Hermit (Ramphodon naevius), a large and distinctive hummingbird endemic to tropical forests of southeastern Brazil. Bootstrapped maximum parsimony and maximum likelihood analyses of sequence data from 11 hummingbirds and several outgroups (two swifts, one goatsucker) support: (a) monophyly of the traditional hermit (Phaethornithinae) and nonhermit (Trochilinae) subfamilies, (b) placement of Ramphodon among hermits, and (c) a sister relationship between Ramphodon and an exemplar of the widespread polytypic hermit genus Glaucis. The association of Ramphodon with derived hermit lineages is concordant with subfamilial patterns of wing anatomy and nest architecture. However, the unusual plumages (striped underparts) and male bills (long, serrated, hooked) shared by Ramphodon and the Tooth-billed Hummingbird (Androdon aequatorialis) appear to have evolved within separate hermit and nonhermit tooth-billed clades. Distal placement of the Ramphodon-Glaucis clade within hermits implies that even distinctive Brazilian endemics such as Ramphodon are derived forms that evolved relatively recently.

Variance heterogeneity for milk yield in Brazilian and Colombian Holstein herds

Heterogeneity of variances for milk yield (MY) was determined for Brazilian and Colombian herds. The herds were grouped as high or low variability within each country, using as criterion the phenotypic standard deviation (PSD) of MY in the contemporary groups of cows, from the first to the sixth calving. Brazilian and Colombian herds with PSD greater than 1,168 kg or 1,012 kg, respectively, were classified as high variability while the herd groups with values lower than those were classified as low variability. The genetic parameters for MY within each herd group were estimated using bivariate analysis in an animal model and the restricted maximum likelihood method with a derivative free algorithm, using 72,280 first lactations of cows, daughters of 1,880 sires. Heterogeneous variances were found, and Brazilian herds with high PSD had the greatest additive and residual genetic variances and heritability coefficients for MY. MY genetic correlation coefficients between herds of high and low variability within each country were 0.96 and 0.93 while between countries they varied from 0.72 to 0.81, suggesting that there was a reclassification of animals in the two countries and also heterogeneity of variances. This phenomenon leads to the questioning of the strategy of imported semen usage and the need to do genetic evaluations to identify sires with greater genetic potential for (sub) tropical environmental conditions.

Strong selection against hybrids at a hybrid zone in the Ensatina ring species complex and its evolutionary implications

The analysis of interactions between lineages at varying levels of genetic divergence can provide insights into the process of speciation through the accumulation of incompatible mutations. Ring species, and especially the Ensatina eschscholtzii system exemplify this approach. The plethodontid salamanders E. eschscholtzii xanthoptica and E. eschscholtzii platensis hybridize in the central Sierran foothills of California. We compared the genetic structure across two transects (southern and northern Calaveras Co.), one of which was resampled over 20 years, and examined diagnostic molecular markers (eight allozyme loci and mitochondrial DNA) and a diagnostic quantitative trait (color pattern). Key results across all studies were: (1) cline centers for all markers were coincident and the zones were narrow, with width estimates of 730 m to 2000 m; (2) cline centers at the northern Calaveras transect were coincident between 1981 and 2001, demonstrating repeatability over five generations; (3) there were very few if any putative F1s, but a relatively high number of backcrossed individuals in the central portion of transects: and (4) we found substantial linkage disequilibrium in all three studies and strong heterozygote deficit both in northern Calaveras, in 2001, and southern Calaveras. Both linkage disequilibrium and heterozygote deficit showed maximum values near the center of the zones. Using estimates of cline width and dispersal, we infer strong selection against hybrids. This is sufficient to promote accumulation of differences at loci that are neutral or under divergent selection, but would still allow for introgression of adaptive alleles. The evidence for strong but incomplete isolation across this centrally located contact is consistent with theory suggesting a gradual increase in postzygotic incompatibility between allopatric populations subject to divergent selection and reinforces the value of Ensatina as a system for the study of divergence and speciation at multiple stages. © 2005 The Society for the Study of Evolution. All rights reserved.

Avaliação do uso da terra em micro̧bacia utilizando uma matriz de partição fuzzy

Informatics evolution presently offers the possibility of new technique and methodology development for studies in all human knowledge areas. In addition, the present personal computer capacity of handling a large volume of data makes the creation and application of new analysis tools easy. This paper aimed the application of a fuzzy partition matrix to analyze data obtained from the Landsat 5 TMN sensor, in order to elaborate the supervised classification of land use in Arroio das Pombas microbasin in Botucatu, SP, Brazil. It was possible that one single training area present input in more than one covering class due to weight attribution at the signature creation moment. A change in the classification result was also observed when compared to maximum likelihood classification, mainly when related to bigger uniformity and better class edges classification.

Reinforcing and expanding the predictions of the disturbance vicariance hypothesis in Amazonian harlequin frogs: A molecular phylogenetic and climate envelope modelling approach

The disturbance vicariance hypothesis (DV) has been proposed to explain speciation in Amazonia, especially its edge regions, e. g. in eastern Guiana Shield harlequin frogs (Atelopus) which are suggested to have derived from a cool-adapted Andean ancestor. In concordance with DV predictions we studied that (i) these amphibians display a natural distribution gap in central Amazonia; (ii) east of this gap they constitute a monophyletic lineage which is nested within a pre-Andean/western clade; (iii) climate envelopes of Atelopus west and east of the distribution gap show some macroclimatic divergence due to a regional climate envelope shift; (iv) geographic distributions of climate envelopes of western and eastern Atelopus range into central Amazonia but with limited spatial overlap. We tested if presence and apparent absence data points of Atelopus were homogenously distributed with Ripley's K function. A molecular phylogeny (mitochondrial 16S rRNA gene) was reconstructed using Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Inference to study if Guianan Atelopus constitute a clade nested within a larger genus phylogeny. We focused on climate envelope divergence and geographic distribution by computing climatic envelope models with MaxEnt based on macroscale bioclimatic parameters and testing them by using Schoener's index and modified Hellinger distance. We corroborated existing DV predictions and, for the first time, formulated new DV predictions aiming on species' climate envelope change. Our results suggest that cool-adapted Andean Atelopus ancestors had dispersed into the Amazon basin and further onto the eastern Guiana Shield where, under warm conditions, they were forced to change climate envelopes. © 2010 The Author(s).