Patterns and trends in esophageal cancer mortality and incidence in Europe (1980-2011) and predictions to 2015

BACKGROUND: Over the last few decades, esophageal cancer incidence and mortality trends varied substantially across Europe, with important differences between sexes and the two main histological subtypes, squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and adenocarcinoma (EAC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: To monitor recent esophageal cancer mortality trends and to compute short-term predictions in the European Union (EU) and selected European countries, we analyzed data provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) for 1980-2011. We also analyzed incidence trends and relative weights of ESCC and EAC across Europe using data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents. RESULTS: Long-term decreasing trends were observed for male esophageal cancer mortality in several southern and western European countries, whereas in central Europe mortality increased until the mid-1990s and started to stabilize or decline over the last years. In some eastern and northern countries, the rates were still increasing. Mortality among European women remained comparatively low and showed stable or decreasing trends in most countries. Between 2000-2004 and 2005-2009, esophageal cancer mortality declined by 7% (from 5.34 to 4.99/100 000) in EU men, and by 3% (from 1.12 to 1.09/100 000) in EU women. Predictions to 2015 show persistent declines in mortality rates for men in the EU overall, and stable rates for EU women, with rates for 2015 of 4.5/100 000 men (about 22 300 deaths) and 1.1/100 000 women (about 7400 deaths). In northern Europe, EAC is now the predominant histological type among men, while for European women ESCC is more common and corresponding rates are still increasing in several countries. CONCLUSION(S): The observed trends reflect the variations in alcohol drinking, tobacco smoking and overweight across European countries.

Combination of MRI and dynamic FET PET for initial glioma grading.

AIM: MRI and PET with 18F-fluoro-ethyl-tyrosine (FET) have been increasingly used to evaluate patients with gliomas. Our purpose was to assess the additive value of MR spectroscopy (MRS), diffusion imaging and dynamic FET-PET for glioma grading. PATIENTS, METHODS: 38 patients (42 ± 15 aged, F/M: 0.46) with untreated histologically proven brain gliomas were included. All underwent conventional MRI, MRS, diffusion sequences, and FET-PET within 3±4 weeks. Performances of tumour FET time-activity-curve, early-to-middle SUVmax ratio, choline / creatine ratio and ADC histogram distribution pattern for gliomas grading were assessed, as compared to histology. Combination of these parameters and respective odds were also evaluated. RESULTS: Tumour time-activity-curve reached the best accuracy (67%) when taken alone to distinguish between low and high-grade gliomas, followed by ADC histogram analysis (65%). Combination of time-activity-curve and ADC histogram analysis improved the sensitivity from 67% to 86% and the specificity from 63-67% to 100% (p < 0.008). On multivariate logistic regression analysis, negative slope of the tumour FET time-activity-curve however remains the best predictor of high-grade glioma (odds 7.6, SE 6.8, p = 0.022). CONCLUSION: Combination of dynamic FET-PET and diffusion MRI reached good performance for gliomas grading. The use of FET-PET/MR may be highly relevant in the initial assessment of primary brain tumours.

Risk factors of stroke mortality in the African region: a cohort study

Background: Population-based cohort studies of risk factors of stroke are scarce in developing countries and none has been done in the African region. We conducted a longitudinal study in the Seychelles (Indian Ocean, east of Kenya), a middle-income island state where the majority of the population is of African descent. Such data in Africa are important for international comparison and for advocacy in the region. Methods: Three examination surveys of cardiovascular risk factors were performed in independent samples representative of the general population aged 25-64 in 1989, 1994 and 2004 (n=1081, 1067, and 1255, respectively). Baseline risk factors data were linked with cause-specific mortality from vital statistics up to May 2007 (all deaths are medically certified in the Seychelles and kept in an electronic database). We considered stroke (any type) as a cause of death if the diagnosis was reported in any of the 4 fields in the death certificates for underlying and concomitant causes of death. Results. Among the 2479 persons aged 35-64 at baseline, 280 died including 56 with stroke during follow up (maximum: 18.2 years; mean: 10.2 years). In this age range, age-adjusted mortality rates (/100'000/year) were 969 for all cause and 187 for stroke; age-adjusted prevalence of high blood pressure (≥140/90 mmHg) was 48%. In multivariate Cox survival time regression, stroke mortality was increased by 18% and 35% for a 10-mmHg increase in systolic, respectively diastolic BP (p<0.001). Stroke mortality was also associated with age, smoking ≥5 cigarettes vs. no smoking (HR: 2.4; 95% CI: 1.2-4.8) and diabetes (HR: 1.9; 1.02-3.6) but not with sex, LDL-cholesterol intake, alcohol intake and professional occupation. Conclusion. This first population-based cohort study in the African region demonstrates high mortality rates from stroke in middle-aged adults and confirms associations with high BP and other risk factors. This emphasizes the importance of reducing BP and other modifiable risk factors in high risk individuals and in the general population as a main strategy to reduce the burden of stroke.

Validation and clinical utility of a 70-gene prognostic signature for women with node-negative breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: A 70-gene signature was previously shown to have prognostic value in patients with node-negative breast cancer. Our goal was to validate the signature in an independent group of patients. METHODS: Patients (n = 307, with 137 events after a median follow-up of 13.6 years) from five European centers were divided into high- and low-risk groups based on the gene signature classification and on clinical risk classifications. Patients were assigned to the gene signature low-risk group if their 5-year distant metastasis-free survival probability as estimated by the gene signature was greater than 90%. Patients were assigned to the clinicopathologic low-risk group if their 10-year survival probability, as estimated by Adjuvant! software, was greater than 88% (for estrogen receptor [ER]-positive patients) or 92% (for ER-negative patients). Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated to compare time to distant metastases, disease-free survival, and overall survival in high- versus low-risk groups. RESULTS: The 70-gene signature outperformed the clinicopathologic risk assessment in predicting all endpoints. For time to distant metastases, the gene signature yielded HR = 2.32 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.35 to 4.00) without adjustment for clinical risk and hazard ratios ranging from 2.13 to 2.15 after adjustment for various estimates of clinical risk; clinicopathologic risk using Adjuvant! software yielded an unadjusted HR = 1.68 (95% CI = 0.92 to 3.07). For overall survival, the gene signature yielded an unadjusted HR = 2.79 (95% CI = 1.60 to 4.87) and adjusted hazard ratios ranging from 2.63 to 2.89; clinicopathologic risk yielded an unadjusted HR = 1.67 (95% CI = 0.93 to 2.98). For patients in the gene signature high-risk group, 10-year overall survival was 0.69 for patients in both the low- and high-clinical risk groups; for patients in the gene signature low-risk group, the 10-year survival rates were 0.88 and 0.89, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The 70-gene signature adds independent prognostic information to clinicopathologic risk assessment for patients with early breast cancer.