Impacts of Technology Adoption: Comparing Returns to the Farming Sector in Maine under Alternative Technology Regimes

This thesis tests if certain technology choices are associated with a reduction in the proportion of farming activities in the agro-food system in Maine. Goodman, Sorj, and Wilkinson define appropriationism as the replacement of farming sector activities by industrial inputs. Based on the concept of appropriationism, industrial fanning systems using large amounts of synthetic inputs contribute less to fanning than more agrarian systems, like organic fanning. Thus, returns to the farming sector should be greater for organic compared with conventional potato fanning in Maine since organic farming uses fewer industrial inputs. Goodman et. al. define substitutionism as the displacement of farming sector commodities and activities by industrial processes in the marketing sector. Based on the concept of substitutionism, returns to the farming sector should be greater for Lay's Classic®™ potato chips made from natural potatoes compared with Baked Lay's®™ potato crisps manufactured from processed dehydrated potatoes. Returns to the farming sector are defined as returns to the farmer or farm family from farming activities, returns to farm labor, and returns to farmers and farm labor producing inputs used on the farm. Results show absolute returns to the farming sector are less for organic compared to conventional tablestock potato farms in Maine. However as a proportion of farm revenues, large organic farms that market at least 25% of their produce to retail stores or directly to consumers do as well as conventional farms. When comparing returns as a proportion of consumer expenditures, these organic farms do better than conventional farms. Returns to the farming sector are less for organic because of yield penalties, cost of marketing services, and diseconomies of size for organic tablestock potato farms. Expanding acreage and reintegrating livestock with cropping systems may increase returns to the fanning sector. Organic farming demonstrates difficulties in providing marketing services at the farm level. Providing marketing services limits the ability to expand production to capture economies of size. Maine organic potato farmers emphasize non-monetary values such as supporting sustainable agriculture, self-sufficiency, the intrinsic value of work, and close community and family connections. Returns to the farming sector as a proportion of consumer expenditures are about three times greater for Lay's Classic®™ potato chips than for Baked Lay's®™ potato crisps, since the value that farmers receive for potatoes used to produce dehydrated potato flakes in one pound of crisps is about half of the value that farmers receive for potatoes used to make one pound of chips. However, this assumes farmers assign a cost to producing low-grade potatoes for dehydration proportionate to their value. Premium potatoes are used to produce potato chips. Low-grade potatoes are used to produce the dehydrated potato flakes used to make potato crisps. Returns to the farming sector are slightly greater for potato crisps if no costs are allocated to producing low-grade potatoes for dehydration. A shift in consumer preferences from potato chips to crisps may result in a geographical shift of potato production from Maine to the Pacific Northwest assuming no food-grade dehydration facilities are built in Maine.

Fourier Series by Least Square Minimization

An introduction to Fourier Series based on the minimization of the least square error between an approximate series representation and the exact function.

BEST SUBSET SELECTION FOR CATEGORICAL DATA

When choosing among models to describe categorical data, the necessity to consider interactions makes selection more difficult. With just four variables, considering all interactions, there are 166 different hierarchical models and many more non-hierarchical models. Two procedures have been developed for categorical data which will produce the "best" subset or subsets of each model size where size refers to the number of effects in the model. Both procedures are patterned after the Leaps and Bounds approach used by Furnival and Wilson for continuous data and do not generally require fitting all models. For hierarchical models, likelihood ratio statistics (G('2)) are computed using iterative proportional fitting and "best" is determined by comparing, among models with the same number of effects, the Pr((chi)(,k)('2) (GREATERTHEQ) G(,ij)('2)) where k is the degrees of freedom for ith model of size j. To fit non-hierarchical as well as hierarchical models, a weighted least squares procedure has been developed.^ The procedures are applied to published occupational data relating to the occurrence of byssinosis. These results are compared to previously published analyses of the same data. Also, the procedures are applied to published data on symptoms in psychiatric patients and again compared to previously published analyses.^ These procedures will make categorical data analysis more accessible to researchers who are not statisticians. The procedures should also encourage more complex exploratory analyses of epidemiologic data and contribute to the development of new hypotheses for study. ^

Evaluation of the Hosmer -Lemeshow global goodness -of-fit statistic for mixed variable logistic regression models

The performance of the Hosmer-Lemeshow global goodness-of-fit statistic for logistic regression models was explored in a wide variety of conditions not previously fully investigated. Computer simulations, each consisting of 500 regression models, were run to assess the statistic in 23 different situations. The items which varied among the situations included the number of observations used in each regression, the number of covariates, the degree of dependence among the covariates, the combinations of continuous and discrete variables, and the generation of the values of the dependent variable for model fit or lack of fit.^ The study found that the $\rm\ C$g* statistic was adequate in tests of significance for most situations. However, when testing data which deviate from a logistic model, the statistic has low power to detect such deviation. Although grouping of the estimated probabilities into quantiles from 8 to 30 was studied, the deciles of risk approach was generally sufficient. Subdividing the estimated probabilities into more than 10 quantiles when there are many covariates in the model is not necessary, despite theoretical reasons which suggest otherwise. Because it does not follow a X$\sp2$ distribution, the statistic is not recommended for use in models containing only categorical variables with a limited number of covariate patterns.^ The statistic performed adequately when there were at least 10 observations per quantile. Large numbers of observations per quantile did not lead to incorrect conclusions that the model did not fit the data when it actually did. However, the statistic failed to detect lack of fit when it existed and should be supplemented with further tests for the influence of individual observations. Careful examination of the parameter estimates is also essential since the statistic did not perform as desired when there was moderate to severe collinearity among covariates.^ Two methods studied for handling tied values of the estimated probabilities made only a slight difference in conclusions about model fit. Neither method split observations with identical probabilities into different quantiles. Approaches which create equal size groups by separating ties should be avoided. ^

Evaluation of the Newly-developed, Least-cost Experimental Diet for Bluegill at Commercial Densities in Ponds

A substantial need exists to reduce costs and develop more nutritionally adequate diets for established as well as emerging aquaculture species in the North Central Region (NCR). The study evaluated a diet for juvenile northern bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus) that is significantly less costly than currently available diets for sunfish, while yielding a growth rate that is at least equal to an industry standard sunfish diet. Such a diet formulation is now available to the NCR as the result of a recently funded North Central Regional Aquaculture Center (NCRAC) project.

Geochemical and physical sediment properties of sediment cores from the Portuguese shelf

Marine sediments from the Portuguese shelf are influenced by environmental changes in the surrounding continental and marine environment. These are largely controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation, but additional impacts may arise from episodic tsunamis. In order to investigate these influences, a high resolution multi-proxy study has been carried out on a 5.4 m long gravity core and five box cores from the Tagus prodelta on the western Portuguese margin, incorporating geochemical (Corg/Ntotal ratios, d13Corg, d15N, d18O, Corg and CaCO3 content) and physical sediment properties (magnetic susceptibility, grain-size). Subsurface data of the five box cores indicate no major effect of early postdepositional alteration. Surface data show a higher fraction of terrigenous organic material close to the river mouth and in the southern prodelta. Gravity core GeoB 8903 covers the last 3.2 kyrs with a temporal resolution of at least 0.1 cm/yr. Very high sedimentation rates between 69 and 140 cm core depth indicate a possible disturbance of the record by the AD1755 tsunami, although no evidence for a disturbance is observed in the data. Sea surface temperature and salinity on the prodelta, the local budget of marine NO3- as well as the provenance of organic matter remained virtually constant during the past 3.2 kyrs. A positive correlation between magnetic susceptibility (MS) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is evident for the past 250 years, coinciding with a negative correlation between mean grain-size and NAO. This is assigned to a constant riverine supply of fine material with high MS, which is diluted by the riverine input of a coarser, low-MS component during NAO negative, high-precipitation phases. End-member modelling of the lithic grain-size spectrum supports this, revealing a third, coarse lithic component. The high abundance of this coarse end-member prior to 2 kyr BP is interpreted as the result of stronger bottom currents, concentrating the coarse sediment fraction by winnowing. As continental climate was more arid prior to 2 kyr BP (Subboreal), the coarse end-member may also consist of dust from local sources. A decrease in grain-size and CaCO3 content after 2 kyr BP is interpreted as a result of decreasing wind strength. The onset of a fining trend and a further decrease in CaCO3 around AD900 occurs simultaneous to climatic variations, reconstructed from eastern North Atlantic records. A strong increase in MS between AD1400 and AD1500 indicates higher lithic terrigenous input, caused by deforestation in the hinterland.

(Table 1) Iceberg characteristics and start and end date and location of iceberg buoys in the Weddell Sea

The drift of 52 icebergs tagged with GPS buoys in the Weddell Sea since 1999 has been investigated with respect to prevalent drift tracks, sea ice/iceberg interaction, and freshwater fluxes. Buoys were deployed on small- to medium-sized icebergs (edge lengths ? 5 km) in the southwestern and eastern Weddell Sea. The basin-scale iceberg drift of this size class was established. In the western Weddell Sea, icebergs followed a northward course with little deviation and mean daily drift rates up to 9.5 ± 7.3 km/d. To the west of 40°W the drift of iceberg and sea ice was coherent. In the highly consolidated perennial sea ice cover of 95% the sea ice exerted a steering influence on the icebergs and was thus responsible for the coherence of the drift tracks. The northward drift of buoys to the east of 40°W was interrupted by large deviations due to the passage of low-pressure systems. Mean daily drift rates in this area were 11.5 ± 7.2 km/d. A lower threshold of 86% sea ice concentration for coherent sea ice/iceberg movement was determined by examining the sea ice concentration derived from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) satellite data. The length scale of coherent movement was estimated to be at least 200 km, about half the value found for the Arctic Ocean but twice as large as previously suggested. The freshwater fluxes estimated from three iceberg export scenarios deduced from the iceberg drift pattern were highly variable. Assuming a transit time in the Weddell Sea of 1 year, the iceberg meltwater input of 31 Gt which is about a third of the basal meltwater input from the Filchner Ronne Ice Shelf but spreads across the entire Weddell Sea. Iceberg meltwater export of 14.2 × 103 m3 s?1, if all icebergs are exported, is in the lower range of freshwater export by sea ice.