A Mechanistic Latent Variable Model for Estimating Drug Concentrations in the Male Genital Tract

The purpose of this study is to develop statistical methodology to facilitate indirect estimation of the concentration of antiretroviral drugs and viral loads in the prostate gland and the seminal vesicle. The differences in antiretroviral drug concentrations in these organs may lead to suboptimal concentrations in one gland compared to the other. Suboptimal levels of the antiretroviral drugs will not be able to fully suppress the virus in that gland, lead to a source of sexually transmissible virus and increase the chance of selecting for drug resistant virus. This information may be useful selecting antiretroviral drug regimen that will achieve optimal concentrations in most of male genital tract glands. Using fractionally collected semen ejaculates, Lundquist (1949) measured levels of surrogate markers in each fraction that are uniquely produced by specific male accessory glands. To determine the original glandular concentrations of the surrogate markers, Lundquist solved a simultaneous series of linear equations. This method has several limitations. In particular, it does not yield a unique solution, it does not address measurement error, and it disregards inter-subject variability in the parameters. To cope with these limitations, we developed a mechanistic latent variable model based on the physiology of the male genital tract and surrogate markers. We employ a Bayesian approach and perform a sensitivity analysis with regard to the distributional assumptions on the random effects and priors. The model and Bayesian approach is validated on experimental data where the concentration of a drug should be (biologically) differentially distributed between the two glands. In this example, the Bayesian model-based conclusions are found to be robust to model specification and this hierarchical approach leads to more scientifically valid conclusions than the original methodology. In particular, unlike existing methods, the proposed model based approach was not affected by a common form of outliers.

Multilevel Latent Class Models with Dirichlet Mixing Distribution

Latent class analysis (LCA) and latent class regression (LCR) are widely used for modeling multivariate categorical outcomes in social sciences and biomedical studies. Standard analyses assume data of different respondents to be mutually independent, excluding application of the methods to familial and other designs in which participants are clustered. In this paper, we develop multilevel latent class model, in which subpopulation mixing probabilities are treated as random effects that vary among clusters according to a common Dirichlet distribution. We apply the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for model fitting by maximum likelihood (ML). This approach works well, but is computationally intensive when either the number of classes or the cluster size is large. We propose a maximum pairwise likelihood (MPL) approach via a modified EM algorithm for this case. We also show that a simple latent class analysis, combined with robust standard errors, provides another consistent, robust, but less efficient inferential procedure. Simulation studies suggest that the three methods work well in finite samples, and that the MPL estimates often enjoy comparable precision as the ML estimates. We apply our methods to the analysis of comorbid symptoms in the Obsessive Compulsive Disorder study. Our models' random effects structure has more straightforward interpretation than those of competing methods, thus should usefully augment tools available for latent class analysis of multilevel data.

Tuberculosis after initiation of antiretroviral therapy in low-income and high-income countries

We examined the incidence of and risk factors for tuberculosis during the first year of highly active antiretroviral therapy in low-income (4540 patients) and high-income (22,217 patients) countries. Although incidence was much higher in low-income countries, the reduction in the incidence of tuberculosis associated with highly active antiretroviral therapy was similar: the rate ratio for months 7-12 versus months 1-3 was 0.48 (95% confidence interval, 0.36-0.64) in low-income countries and 0.36 (95% confidence interval, 0.26-0.50) in high-income countries. A low CD4 cell count at the start of therapy was the most important risk factor in both settings.

Validation of candidate smear microscopy quality indicators, extracted from tuberculosis laboratory registers

SETTING: Kinshasa Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. OBJECTIVE: To identify and validate register-based indicators of acid-fast bacilli (AFB) microscopy quality. DESIGN: Selection of laboratories based on reliability and variation in routine smear rechecking results. Calculation of relative sensitivity (RS) compared to recheckers and its correlation coefficient (R) with candidate indicators based on a fully probabilistic analysis incorporating vague prior information using WinBUGS. RESULTS: The proportion of positive follow-up smears correlated well (median R 0.81, 95% credibility interval [CI] 0.58-0.93), and the proportion of first smear-positive cases fairly (median R 0.70, 95% CI 0.38-0.89) with RS. The proportions of both positive suspect and low positive case smears showed poor correlations (median R 0.27 and -0.22, respectively, with ranges including zero). CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of positives in follow-up smears is the most promising indicator of AFB smear sensitivity, while the proportion of positive suspects may be more indicative of accessibility and suspect selection. Both can be obtained from simple reports, and should be used for internal and external monitoring and as guidance for supervision. As proportion of low positive suspect smears and consistency within case series are more difficult to interpret, they should be used only on-site by laboratory professionals. All indicators require more research to define their optimal range in various settings.

Demographic characteristics of patients with extrapulmonary tuberculosis in Germany

The aim of the present study was to determine the demographics of patients with extrapulmonary tuberculosis in Germany. Data on 26,302 tuberculosis cases from a national survey carried out during the period 1996-2000 were analysed. The crude proportion of tuberculosis patients with extrapulmonary manifestations was 21.6%. Extrapulmonary tuberculosis was most likely among females, children aged <15 yrs and persons originating from Africa and Asia. Females tended to be more likely to have any form of extrapulmonary tuberculosis than males, except pleural tuberculosis. The strength of this association was strongest in the age range 25-64 yrs and less pronounced amongst the oldest patients. Children were particularly prone to the development of lymphatic and meningeal tuberculosis, whereas the likelihood of genitourinary tuberculosis increased with increasing age. Asian and African patients were generally more likely than persons from other areas to have lymphatic, osteoarticular, meningeal and miliary tuberculosis. The analysis shows important differences, by age, sex and origin, in the likelihood of a tuberculosis patient presenting with extrapulmonary tuberculosis. Since the relative contribution of the foreign-born to tuberculosis in low-prevalence countries is rising, extrapulmonary tuberculosis must be taken into account more often in the differential diagnostic work-up of these patients, particularly among those originating from Asia and Africa.

Antibody responses in New World camelids with tuberculosis caused by Mycobacterium microti

Antibody responses in New World camelids (NWC) infected with Mycobacterium microti were studied by two serological methods, multiantigen print immunoassay (MAPIA) and lateral-flow-based rapid test (RT). Serum samples were collected during 2004-2006 from 87 animals including 1 alpaca and 7 llamas with confirmed or suspected M. microti infection, 33 potentially exposed but clinically healthy animals from known infected herds, and 46 control NWC from herds where infection had not been previously diagnosed. The serological assays correctly identified infection status in 97% (MAPIA) or 87% (RT) cases. In three llamas with confirmed M. microti infection and one llama with gross pathology suggestive of disease, for which multiple serum samples collected over time were available, the antibody-based tests showed positive results 1-2 years prior to the onset of clinical signs or being found dead. In MAPIA, MPB83 protein was identified to be an immunodominant serological target antigen recognized in NWC infected with M. microti. With the limited number of animals tested in this study, the serological assays demonstrated the potential for convenient, rapid, and accurate diagnosis of M. microti infection in live llamas and alpacas.

[Interferon-gamma release assays in tuberculosis diagnostics]

Two years ago, CE certified interferon-gamma release assays (IGRA) were launched on the German market (QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube and T-SPOT-TB). Since this time, a multitude of studies have analysed these assays. Guidelines have been elaborated by national expert committees of England, the USA and Switzerland. However, standards of tuberculosis diagnostics and management may vary from country to country. This statement provides practice relevant recommendations for indications, pre-analytics and the interpretation of IGRA test results under different clinical conditions. The IGRA are integrated into existing guidelines for the management of tuberculosis.

Disseminated Tuberculosis Following Total Knee Arthroplasty in an HIV Patient

Skeletal tuberculosis is now uncommon in developed countries. In immunocompromised patients - particularly in the HIV-infected - who present with subacute or chronic joint pain refractory to conventional treatment, osteoarticular tuberculosis should still be included in the differential diagnosis. We report on a lethal case of disseminated tuberculosis in an HIV-infected subject. Dissemination may have resulted from the implantation of an articular prosthesis in a knee joint with unsuspected osteoarticular tuberculosis. The diagnosis was established months later when the patient presented with far-advanced tuberculous meningitis, miliary tuberculosis of the lungs, femoral osteomyelitis and extended cold abscesses along the femoral shaft. Failure to respond to a conventional four-drug regimen is explained by the resistance pattern of his multi-drug resistant strain of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, which was only reported after the patient's death. This case illustrates the diagnostic challenges of osteoarticular tuberculosis and the consequences of a diagnostic delay in an HIV-infected individual.

Distinguishing phenotypes of childhood wheeze and cough using latent class analysis

Airway disease in childhood comprises a heterogeneous group of disorders. Attempts to distinguish different phenotypes have generally considered few disease dimensions. The present study examines phenotypes of childhood wheeze and chronic cough, by fitting a statistical model to data representing multiple disease dimensions. From a population-based, longitudinal cohort study of 1,650 preschool children, 319 with parent-reported wheeze or chronic cough were included. Phenotypes were identified by latent class analysis using data on symptoms, skin-prick tests, lung function and airway responsiveness from two preschool surveys. These phenotypes were then compared with respect to outcome at school age. The model distinguished three phenotypes of wheeze and two phenotypes of chronic cough. Subsequent wheeze, chronic cough and inhaler use at school age differed clearly between the five phenotypes. The wheeze phenotypes shared features with previously described entities and partly reconciled discrepancies between existing sets of phenotype labels. This novel, multidimensional approach has the potential to identify clinically relevant phenotypes, not only in paediatric disorders but also in adult obstructive airway diseases, where phenotype definition is an equally important issue.

Computational simulations of latent heat thermal energy storage systems - with innovative and first-principles based simulation for the underlying unsteady melting (and solidification) processes

This thesis develops an effective modeling and simulation procedure for a specific thermal energy storage system commonly used and recommended for various applications (such as an auxiliary energy storage system for solar heating based Rankine cycle power plant). This thermal energy storage system transfers heat from a hot fluid (termed as heat transfer fluid - HTF) flowing in a tube to the surrounding phase change material (PCM). Through unsteady melting or freezing process, the PCM absorbs or releases thermal energy in the form of latent heat. Both scientific and engineering information is obtained by the proposed first-principle based modeling and simulation procedure. On the scientific side, the approach accurately tracks the moving melt-front (modeled as a sharp liquid-solid interface) and provides all necessary information about the time-varying heat-flow rates, temperature profiles, stored thermal energy, etc. On the engineering side, the proposed approach is unique in its ability to accurately solve – both individually and collectively – all the conjugate unsteady heat transfer problems for each of the components of the thermal storage system. This yields critical system level information on the various time-varying effectiveness and efficiency parameters for the thermal storage system.

Tuberculosis in a Swiss army training camp: contact investigation using an Interferon gamma release assay

BACKGROUND: In tuberculosis (TB), the risk of exposure is determined mainly by the proximity to and the hours of direct contact with an infectious patient. We describe the contact investigation after detection of an infectious form of TB in a military camp using an Interferon-g-Release-Assay (IGRA, QuantiFERON-TB Gold In Tube [QTF-GIT]) eight weeks after detection of the index case. INDEX PATIENT: The index patient presented with fever, cough and weight loss in the military hospital six weeks after entering the camp. TB was suspected and anti-tuberculous therapy given immediately. Subsequently, TB was microbiologically confirmed. METHODS: Four exposure groups were formed a priori based on the proximity and the hours of direct contact to the index case. 168 (95.5%) agreed to be investigated: - Group A: sharing the same dormitory (15 persons) - Group B: same platoon, but not sharing the dormitory (20 persons) - Group C: staff and patients of the military hospital (22 persons) - Group D: other three platoons and senior military staff (111 persons). RESULTS: 34 (20.2%) out of 168 contacts tested positive in the QFT-GIT assay. For the exposure groups, the respective QFT-GIT testing results were: group A, 14/15 (93%); group B, 4/20 (20%); group C, 5/22 (22.7%); and group D, 11/111 (9.9%). No secondary TB cases were identified. CONCLUSIONS: In our study, test results show a correlation with the risk of exposure, suggesting that IGRA may be useful for the assessment of TB infection in TB contacts. The high mobility of recruits reduced traceability of contacts. In this context, QFT-GIT allowed for an efficient screening of contacts at a single time point.