Concurrent momentum and contrarian strategies in the Australian stock market

We investigate the coexistence of momentum and contrarian strategies in the Australian equity market from 1992 to 2011. We show that contrarian strategies prevail in the short-term investment horizon while momentum strategies dominate in the intermediate- and long-term horizons. However, only short-term contrarian strategies significantly outperform the simple buy-and-hold strategy of investing in the market index over the same period. Further examination of these strategies shows that the Australian mining sector undermines the performance of momentum while enhancing performance of contrarian strategies. Lastly, using both parametric and non-parametric approaches, we show that these strategies’ returns are persistent anomalies and not completely explained by standard return-generating models.

Can governance quality predict stock market returns? New global evidence

We develop country-level governance indices using governance risk factors and examine whether country-level governance can predict stock market returns. We find that country-level governance predicts stock market returns only in countries where governance quality is poor. For countries with well-developed governance, there is no evidence that governance predicts returns. Our findings also confirm that investors in countries with weak governance can utilise information contained in country-level governance indicators to devise profitable portfolio strategies.

Studies of firm efficiency on stock returns

 The thesis provides strong evidence for a negative relationship between firm efficiency and average stock returns in the Australian market. Moreover, the findings indicate that the return anomalies are more likely due to mispricing in which arbitrage costs play an important role in explaining the efficiency effect.

Investment in sensory structures, testis size, and wing coloration in males of a diurnal moth species: trade-offs or correlated growth?

For dioecious animals, reproductive success typically involves an exchange between the sexes of signals that provide information about mate location and quality. Typically, the elaborate, secondary sexual ornaments of males signal their quality, while females may signal their location and receptivity. In theory, the receptor structures that receive the latter signals may also become elaborate or enlarged in a way that ultimately functions to enhance mating success through improved mate location. The large, elaborate antennae of many male moths are one such sensory structure, and eye size may also be important in diurnal moths. Investment in these traits may be costly, resulting in trade-offs among different traits associated with mate location. For polyandrous species, such trade-offs may also include traits associated with paternity success, such as larger testes. Conversely, we would not expect this to be the case for monandrous species, where sperm competition is unlikely. We investigated these ideas by evaluating the relationship between investment in sensory structures (antennae, eye), testis, and a putative warning signal (orange hindwing patch) in field-caught males of the monandrous diurnal painted apple moth Teia anartoides (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) in southeastern Australia. As predicted for a monandrous species, we found no evidence that male moths with larger sensory structures had reduced investment in testis size. However, contrary to expectation, investment in sensory structures was correlated: males with relatively larger antennae also had relatively larger eyes. Intriguingly, also, the size of male orange hindwing patches was positively correlated with testis size.

The relationship between stock returns and the foreign exchange rate: the ARDL approach

This study employs the ARDL cointegration approach in order to examine the impact
of financial liberalization on the relationships between the exchange rate and share
market performance in China. We discovered that cointegration has existed between the
Shanghai A Share Index and the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar
and Hong Kong dollar since 2005, when the Chinese exchange rate regime became a
flexible, managed, floating system. We found that both the exchange rate and the money
supply influenced stock price, with a positive correlation. We further show that the
money supply increase was largely caused by a huge ‘hot money’ inflow from other
countries in recent years. After local currency appreciation, hot money, followed by
the money supply increase, pushed the market into a high level, based on expectations
regarding the local currency’s further appreciation.

Do order imbalances predict Chinese stock returns? New evidence from intraday data

In this paper we examine whether order imbalances can predict the Chinese stock market returns. We use intraday data, a panel data predictive regression model that accounts for persistent and endogenous order imbalances and cross-sectional dependence in returns, and show that order imbalances predict stock returns from 1-minute trading to 90-minute trading. On the basis of this predictability evidence using multiple trading strategies we show that profits persist during the day. These results imply that a source of Chinese market inefficiency is order imbalances.

Does banks’ dual holding affect bank lending and firms’ investment decisions? Evidence from China

This study investigates the effect of banks’ dual holding on bank lending and firms’ investment decisions using a sample of listed firms in China. We find that dual holding leads to easier access to bank loans, a result that is more pronounced for non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs) than SOEs. We also find that dual holding distorts banks’ lending decisions and harms the investment efficiency for SOEs, while resulting in optimal lending decisions and enhanced investment efficiency for non-SOEs. For non-SOEs, further analysis suggests that optimal lending decisions and efficient investment can be achieved for firms with higher ownership concentration, and firms in which the family and foreign investors are the controlling shareholders. We argue that, in emerging markets, whether a bank plays a monitoring role by directly holding the debt and equity claims of companies relies heavily on whether the potential collusion between firm executives and bank managers can be averted, which in turn is determined by the firms’ governance framework and ownership structure.

Foreign direct investment and economic growth: A real relationship or wishful thinking?

Several theories have been advanced on the beneficial effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth. However, mixed empirical findings have resulted in a long-standing debate. This study explores the global FDI-growth relationship through an 'informed' econometric analysis predicated on substantial guidance obtained from a detailed investigation of 880 estimates reported in 108 published studies. With model uncertainties alleviated and the core specification benchmarked against the aforementioned assessment, our econometric analysis, utilising a global sample of 140 countries in the period 1970 to 2009, conclusively documents that FDI positively affects economic growth. Moreover, we find that this association holds globally as strongly as in the developing world. Further, it is regional variation rather than within-country variation, and contemporaneous FDI rather than past FDI, which matters for growth. Finally, appropriate absorptive capacity indicators for positive growth are identified to be trade openness and financial development rather than schooling.

Are Indian stock returns predictable?

In this paper we show that Indian stock returns, based on industry portfolios, portfolios sorted on book-to-market, and on size, are predictable. While we discover that this predictability holds both in in-sample and out-of-sample tests, predictability is not homogenous. Some predictors are important than others and some industries and portfolios of stocks are more predictable and, therefore, more profitable than others. We also discover that a mean combination forecast approach delivers significant out-of-sample performance. Our results survive a battery of robustness tests.

A Bourdieuian analysis of the aspirations associated with international students' investment in VET

An increasing number of students around the globe have pursuedtertiary education outside their national borders over the past few decades. There are over 4.5 million international students currently undertaking overseas study (OECD, 2014). Despite the growing focus of institutions around the world on internationalisation of education and increasing research interests in international education, the ‘mobility’ of international students remains a largely under-theorised phenomenon. This paper provides insights into the mobility of an often-neglected group within the field of international education –international students in vocational education and training (VET). It draws on a four-year study funded by the Australian Research Council that involves 105 semi-structured interviews with international students from the Asia Pacific region, Europe and America in 25 VET institutions and dual sector universities in Australia.

The relevance of Asian development bank: existing in the shadow of the Asian infrastructure investment bank

This paper analyses the potential impact of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) on the Japan-USA-led Asian Development Bank (ADB). Given the financial strengths and the technical know-how of the newly formed AIIB there is a question about thefuture role and indeed relevance of the ADB. The questions canvassed in this article refer to ADB’s ability to change and adapt to the new situation, where it is no longer the dominant multi-lateral development bank (MDB) in the Asia-Pacific region. Against this background the discussion turns to issues concerning the geo-political sphere of influence of the ADB andAIIB and analyses the ADB – AIIB geo-political equilibrium in the Asia-Pacific region. Subsequently this paper discusses factors that may impact on ADB’s future relevance.

Book-to-market ratio, default risk and return implications: from a negative perspective

A paradox is created by the common practice in stock evaluation models of excluding stocks with a negative book equity (BE). If we interpret the book-to-market ratio as a proxy for distress risk, it makes no sense to exclude these negative BE stocks since they are, prima facie, most prone to distress risk. This paper reassesses the relationship between default risk, return and the book-to-market ratio by incorporating negative BE stocks into the study. We find that negative BE stocks carry higher default risks than their positive BE counterparts and that these risks are not totally offset by higher returns. This suggests that a default risk filter can be used in the investment universe selection process through which the portfolio return can be enhanced.