US inflation expectations and heterogeneous loss functions, 1968-2010

Recent literature has suggested that macroeconomic forecasters may have asymmetric loss functions, and that there may be heterogeneity across forecasters in the degree to which they weigh under- and over-predictions. Using an individual-level analysis that exploits the Survey of Professional Forecasters respondents’ histogram forecasts, we find little evidence of asymmetric loss for the inflation forecasters

The housing pathways of young people in the UK

The authors examine the housing pathways of young people in the UK in the years 1999 to 2008, and consider the changing nature of these pathways in the run up to 2020. They employ a highly innovative methodology, which begins with the identification and description of key drivers likely to affect young people’s housing circumstances in the future. The empirical identification and analysis of housing pathways is then achieved using multiple-sequence analysis and cluster analysis of the British Household Panel Survey, contextualised by qualitative interviews with a large sample of young people. The authors describe how the interactions between the meanings, perceptions, and aspirations of young people, and the opportunities and constraints imposed by the drivers, are having a major impact on young people’s housing pathways, resulting in considerable housing policy challenges, particularly in relation to the private rented sector

O debate sobre reformas e regulação e o caso da ANEEL

Este trabalho tem como objetivo verificar em que medida a flexibilização da gestão de recursos humanos na agência reguladora do setor elétrico brasileiro é consistente com a independência regulatória, entendida como autonomia de gestão nas dimensões financeira, técnica e de recursos humanos. A independência das agências reguladoras constitui mecanismo contra os efeitos negativos das ações de interesses privados, ou rent-seekers, e o uso político inadequado, gerador de ineficiências econômicas. O trabalho descreve o processo de constituição da diretoria colegiada, o regime e o quadro de pessoal vigente, e analisa o processo de reestruturação do setor elétrico brasileiro, concluindo que a contratação temporária e a tentativa de implementar regime jurídico diferenciado repete os equívocos e disfunções que caracterizaram a burocracia pública desde os anos trinta.

Distribuição de renda e consumo agregado: uma avaliação para o Brasil

O propósito desta dissertação consiste, fundamentalmente, em averiguar se a distribuição de renda constitui-se, ou não, em um fator relevante para a determinação do consumo agregado no Brasil. Em meados da década de 30, como uma implicação da Teoria Geral de Keynes, a noção de que uma equalização na distribuição da renda tenderia a elevar o consumo agragado, ganhou destaque na Teoria Econômica. Entretanto, com o amplo debate suscitado pelas evidências apresentadas por Kuznets (1942) e Goldsmith (1955), para os EUA, e a posterios formulação de hipóteses alternativas acerca do comportamento do consumo, essa noção foi posta em dúvida

Municipalização da saúde no Brasil: diferenças regionais, poder do voto e estratégias de governo

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A Produção do Flagelo : a re-produção do espaço social da seca na cidade de Mossoró (1877-1903-1915)

The great droughts re- produced spaces in the city of Mossoró / RN in the end of the nineteenth century to the beginning of the twentieth century. Its dimension exceeds the climatic effects becoming social locus when advances over the political and economic sectors, social and cultural of the North / Northeast Brazilian societies during that period. This way, analyzing the re-production of social space in episodes of Mossoró‟s droughts is our toil. So try to reveal each segment, route and aspect of production of space in its size and interface between the perceived, conceived and lived, and subjects related to it - refugees, population and authorities - during the droughts of 1877, 1903 and 1915 within Mossoró city. Therefore, issues such as the constitution and representation of the city and social space in the terrifying experience of the drought of 1877, the production of fixed objects and flows of the urban web through of migrant labor, attempts to control, discipline and spatial planning and ways to resistance to these charges in daily sphere are key issues addressed in this work. For this we use diverse sources as minutes of the city council, reports from provincial presidents, media, memory books and others that sustain us in building our narrative and problematic. This way, the spatial production of Mossoró‟s droughts reveals itself in the field of relations and political-economic transformations and sociocultural, inextricably, that shapes and mobilizes your own social space

Conflito e cooperação na Bacia do Prata em relação aos cursos d'água internacionais (de 1966 a 1992)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Gestão da informação e do conhecimento na Rede CEDES (2003 - 2010)

Pós-graduação em Ciências da Motricidade - IBRC

Large-scale analysis of the SDSS-III DR8 photometric luminous galaxies angular correlation function

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Estudo de comunidades de foraminíferos em manguezal do Rio Itapanhaú, Bertioga-SP, aplicado à reconstrução paleoambiental

Foraminifera scientific studies became, historically, of your apply in relative dating of rocks, stratigraphic correlations and paleoenvironmental reconstruction. In the last decades, they have been applied on the studies of modern ecosystems, with or without antrhopic influence. Both aspects are interest of petroleum industry. Among other approaches, foraminífera are used as good indicators of the fluctuation of relative sea level. This study aimed to survey and taxonomic study of the community structure of foraminifera in surface samples of a core, 60 cm, collected in mangrove located in Itapanhaú river in Bertioga (SP).It also aims to contribute to the discussion about typical patterns of community structure of mangrove margins and provide elements for discussion on the relative sea level behavior in this area in almost modern times. It was been collected 6 samples along the core of 60 cm of length, each one 10 cm depth. They were made in laboratory and in each sample sought to find at least 100 foraminifera per ml. The species identification was made with reference specified material and collection available on IGCE-UNESPetro, Rio Claro. The community structure was studied in terms of richness, diversity and species composition and was made the results comparison from similar areas to interpret the depositional environment. Were found 21 species within them 13 calcareous and 8 binders, being the most abundant and frequent species Ammonia tepida, Ammonia parkinsoniana e Elphidium spp. Essentially there wasn’t change in the community structure within the period covered by the core which reflects an environment of outer margin of mangrove without noticeable change in relative sea level at the respective time of deposition of muddy sediments. The community structure here recognized its similar to estuarine environment well maintained which indicates a low human impact in the area over the time interval. The agreement of the results...

Densidade mineral óssea, exercício físico no lazer e composição corporal em mulheres pós-menopausa: estudo com usuárias do Sistema Único de Saúde

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Einstellungen zur Demokratie in Kambodscha : Niveau und Determinanten der Demokratieunterstützung

Die vorliegende Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Frage, wie stark die Unterstützung eines demokratischen politischen Systems in der kambodschanischen Bevölkerung ist und welche Faktoren auf der Mikroebene die Demokratieunterstützung in Kambodscha beeinflussen. Hierfür werden das Unterstützungsmodell von Dieter Fuchs und die Modernisierungstheorie von Seymour Lipset für die Analyse von Einstellungen in einem autoritären politischen System modifiziert und entsprechend angepasste Hypothesen [zum Einfluss der Modernisierungsfaktoren auf die Demokratieunterstützung] formuliert. Nachdem die im Datensatz vorhandenen Einzelindikatoren zu Faktoren verdichtet und Probleme des Demokratieverständnisses und der Item-Nonresponse diskutiert wurden, werden Daten der zweiten Welle der Asian Barometer Survey 2008 analysiert. Die empirischen Ergebnisse zeigen zwar, dass eine substantielle Minderheit das autoritäre Regime des Landes und seine Entscheidungsträger kritisch betrachtet, die Bindung an liberal-demokratische Werte aber eher schwach ausgeprägt ist. Bi- und multivariate Analysen deuten auf einen Einfluss von Faktoren wie Bildung, Einkommen und Wohnort hin und bestätigen somit weitgehend die Modernisierungstheorie, allerdings mit einer bedeutsamen Abweichung: Größere Zufriedenheit mit der eigenen wirtschaftlichen Lage führt zwar zu einer stärkeren Bindung an demokratische Werte, gleichzeitig aber auch zu einer größeren Unterstützung des autoritären Regimes und seiner Entscheidungsträger.

Parochialism or self-consciousness? Internationality in medical history journals 1997-2006

Research councils, universities and funding agencies are increasingly asking for tools to measure the quality of research in the humanities. One of their preferred methods is a ranking of journals according to their supposed level of internationality. Our quantitative survey of seventeen major journals of medical history reveals the futility of such an approach. Most journals have a strong national character with a dominance of native language, authors and topics. The most common case is a paper written by a local author in his own language on a national subject regarding the nineteenth or twentieth century. American and British journals are taken notice of internationally but they only rarely mention articles from other history of medicine journals. Continental European journals show a more international review of literature, but are in their turn not noticed globally. Increasing specialisation and fragmentation has changed the role of general medical history journals. They run the risk of losing their function as international platforms of discourse on general and theoretical issues and major trends in historiography, to international collections of papers. Journal editors should therefore force their authors to write a more international report, and authors should be encouraged to submit papers of international interest and from a more general, transnational and methodological point of view.

The Philanthropy Scale: a Sociological Perspective in Measuring New Forms of Pro Social Behaviour

In wealthy countries, philanthropy is conspicuous back on stage. It appears in new forms, worldwide. As a result, scholarly attention for philanthropy is growing. Philanthropic goals refer to persons, groups and communities who, in most cases, are not personally known to the giver. In research, however, philanthropic motivations of individuals are usually measured by socio-psychological scales which presuppose direct interactions. Measuring philanthropy could therefore be improved by incorporating a sociological frame of reference as well. As a starting point, this article presents a preliminary version of the philanthropy scale that has been tested in the panel survey of the Giving in the Netherlands (GIN) study. The results are discussed in terms of shortcomings and challenges for further research.

Leistung oder soziale Herkunft? Bestimmungsfaktoren für erwarteten und tatsächlichen beruflichen Erfolg im jungen Erwachsenenalter

Welchen berulichen Status haben junge Erwachsene in der Schweiz zehn Jahre nach Beendigung der obligatorischen Schule im Alter von durchschnittlich 26 Jahren erreicht – und welche Faktoren beeinlussen ihn? Wie nehmen junge Erwachsene ihren Status im Vergleich zum elterlichen wahr und wie, denken sie, wird er sich in Zukunt noch verändern? Diese Forschungsfragen werden auf der Basis der TREE-Daten (Transitionen von der Erstausbildung ins Erwerbsleben) analysiert. Die Ergebnisse dieses Beitrags zeigen, dass viele 26-Jährige den elterlichen Status bereits erreicht haben, in Zukunt aber noch mit einem weiteren Statusanstieg rechnen. Askriptive Merkmale wie Geschlecht, soziale Herkunt und Migrationshintergrund sowie der auf Sekundarstufe I besuchte Schultyp haben unter sonst vergleichbaren Bedingungen über den ganzen Bildungsverlauf hinweg einen bedeutsamen Einluss auf den berulichen Status. Dies deutet einerseits auf eine vergleichsweise hohe Status-“Vererblichkeit“ zwischen den Generationen hin, andererseits auf erhebliche Verletzungen des meritokratischen Prinzips, wonach für den Bildungserfolg und die erreichte Position in der Gesellschat vor allem die individuelle Leistung massgeblich sein sollte.