Speed of convergence of recursive least squares learning with ARMA perceptions

This paper fills a gap in the existing literature on least squareslearning in linear rational expectations models by studying a setup inwhich agents learn by fitting ARMA models to a subset of the statevariables. This is a natural specification in models with privateinformation because in the presence of hidden state variables, agentshave an incentive to condition forecasts on the infinite past recordsof observables. We study a particular setting in which it sufficesfor agents to fit a first order ARMA process, which preserves thetractability of a finite dimensional parameterization, while permittingconditioning on the infinite past record. We describe how previousresults (Marcet and Sargent [1989a, 1989b] can be adapted to handlethe convergence of estimators of an ARMA process in our self--referentialenvironment. We also study ``rates'' of convergence analytically and viacomputer simulation.

Adaptive learning in models with lagged variables

In this work I study the stability of the dynamics generated by adaptivelearning processes in intertemporal economies with lagged variables. Iprove that determinacy of the steady state is a necessary condition for the convergence of the learning dynamics and I show that the reciprocal is not true characterizing the economies where convergence holds. In the case of existence of cycles I show that there is not, in general, a relationship between determinacy and convergence of the learning process to the cycle. I also analyze the expectational stability of these equilibria.

Does eeasoning enhance learning?

Utilizing the well-known Ultimatum Game, this note presents the following phenomenon. If we start with simple stimulus-response agents,learning through naive reinforcement, and then grant them some introspective capabilities, we get outcomes that are not closer but farther away from the fully introspective game-theoretic approach. The cause of this is the following: there is an asymmetry in the information that agents can deduce from their experience, and this leads to a bias in their learning process.

Morphometric shape analysis using learning vector quantization neural networks - an example distinguishing two microtine vole species

Closely related species may be very difficult to distinguish morphologically, yet sometimes morphology is the only reasonable possibility for taxonomic classification. Here we present learning-vector-quantization artificial neural networks as a powerful tool to classify specimens on the basis of geometric morphometric shape measurements. As an example, we trained a neural network to distinguish between field and root voles from Procrustes transformed landmark coordinates on the dorsal side of the skull, which is so similar in these two species that the human eye cannot make this distinction. Properly trained neural networks misclassified only 3% of specimens. Therefore, we conclude that the capacity of learning vector quantization neural networks to analyse spatial coordinates is a powerful tool among the range of pattern recognition procedures that is available to employ the information content of geometric morphometrics.

Learning of courtship components in Drosophila mercatorum (Paterson & Wheller) (Diptera, Drosophilidae)

In Drosophila, courtship is an elaborate sequence of behavioural patterns that enables the flies to identify conspecific mates from those of closely related species. This is important because drosophilids usually gather in feeding sites, where males of various species court females vigorously. We investigated the effects of previous experience on D. mercatorum courtship, by testing if virgin males learn to improve their courtship by observing other flies (social learning), or by adjusting their pre-existent behaviour based on previous experiences (facilitation). Behaviours recorded in a controlled environment were courtship latency, courtship (orientation, tapping and wing vibration), mating and other behaviours not related to sexual activities. This study demonstrated that males of D. mercatorum were capable of improving their mating ability based on prior experiences, but they had no social learning on the development of courtship.

A dynamic choice model of hybrid behavior in the attribute-space

This paper presents a dynamic choice model in the attributespace considering rational consumers that discount the future. In lightof the evidence of several state-dependence patterns, the model isfurther extended by considering a utility function that allows for thedifferent types of behavior described in the literature: pure inertia,pure variety seeking and hybrid. The model presents a stationaryconsumption pattern that can be inertial, where the consumer only buysone product, or a variety-seeking one, where the consumer buys severalproducts simultane-ously. Under the inverted-U marginal utilityassumption, the consumer behaves inertial among the existing brands forseveral periods, and eventually, once the stationary levels areapproached, the consumer turns to a variety-seeking behavior. An empiricalanalysis is run using a scanner database for fabric softener andsignificant evidence of hybrid behavior for most attributes is found,which supports the functional form considered in the theory.

Intraoperative angiography reloaded: a new hybrid operating theater for combined endovascular and surgical treatment of cerebral arteriovenous malformations: a pilot study on 25 patients.

BACKGROUND: Multimodality treatment suites for patients with cerebral arteriovenous malformations (AVM) have recently become available. This study was designed to evaluate feasibility, safety and impact on treatment of a new intraoperative flat-panel (FP) based integrated surgical and imaging suite for combined endovascular and surgical treatment of cerebral AVM. METHODS: Twenty-five patients with AVMs to treat with combined endovascular and surgical interventions were prospectively enrolled in this consecutive case series. The hybrid suite allows combined endovascular and surgical approaches with intraoperative scanner-like imaging (XperCT®) and intraoperative 3D rotational angiography (3D-RA). The impact of intraoperative multimodal imaging on feasibility, workflow of combined interventions, surgery, and unexpected imaging findings were analyzed. RESULTS: Twenty-five patients (mean age 38 ± 18.6 year) with a median Spetzler-Martin grade 2 AVM (range 1-4) underwent combined endovascular and surgical procedures. Sixteen patients presented with a ruptured AVM and nine with an unruptured AVM. In 16 % (n = 4) of cases, intraoperative imaging visualized AVM remnants ≤3 mm and allowed for completion of the resections in the same sessions. Complete resection was confirmed in all n = 16 patients who had follow-up angiography one year after surgery so far. All diagnostic and therapeutical steps, including angiographic control, were performed without having to move the patients CONCLUSION: The hybrid neurointerventional suite was shown to be a safe and useful setup which allowed for unconstrained combined microsurgical and neuroradiological workflow. It reduces the need for extraoperative angiographic controls and subsequent potential surgical revisions a second time, as small AVM remnants can be detected with high security.

Mise en Place d’un Dispositif de Formation a Distance a l’universite du Cap-Vert« e-learning » :Les Technologies de L’information et de la Communication dans L’enseignement du Français Langue Etrangere

Ce mémoire est l’occasion de partager le résultat de la mise en place de ce dispositif de formation à distance que nous avons mené dans l’université du Cap-Vert. Dans la première partie, nous décrirons la nature de la politique éducative au Cap-Vert. Nous contextualiserons les principes de l’installation de l’université publique dans ce pays, ainsi que les intentions d’innovation pédagogique de cette université. La deuxième partie portera un regard complémentaire sur l’utilisation des TIC et de l’internet dans l’enseignement/apprentissage d’une langue, cas du français langue étrangère, et nous nous inspirerons des théories constructiviste et socio-constructiviste. Finalement, la troisième partie détaillera toutes les étapes de la conception et de la mise en place du dispositif de formation à distance. Dans cette troisième partie, nous aborderons dans un premier temps la question des enjeux et des risques du e-Learning et nous présenterons notre mission dans le projet « e-Learning.cv » mené par l’université. Puis, dans un deuxième temps nous analyserons quelques cours que nous avons mis en ligne, en sachant qu’un cours en ligne n’est pas la simple reproduction d’un support pédagogique imprimé mais il offre à l’apprenant un environnement multimédia et interactif. Finalement dans un troisième temps nous essayerons de prendre un peu de recul pour faire une analyse critique de ce que nous avons réalisé et essayer par là même de dégager les perspectives pour améliorer le travail effectué.

Hybrid consumption paths in the attribute space: A model and application with scanner data

This paper presents and estimates a dynamic choice model in the attribute space considering rational consumers. In light of the evidence of several state-dependence patterns, the standard attribute-based model is extended by considering a general utility function where pure inertia and pure variety-seeking behaviors can be explained in the model as particular linear cases. The dynamics of the model are fully characterized by standard dynamic programming techniques. The model presents a stationary consumption pattern that can be inertial, where the consumer only buys one product, or a variety-seeking one, where the consumer shifts among varied products.We run some simulations to analyze the consumption paths out of the steady state. Underthe hybrid utility assumption, the consumer behaves inertially among the unfamiliar brandsfor several periods, eventually switching to a variety-seeking behavior when the stationary levels are approached. An empirical analysis is run using scanner databases for three different product categories: fabric softener, saltine cracker, and catsup. Non-linear specifications provide the best fit of the data, as hybrid functional forms are found in all the product categories for most attributes and segments. These results reveal the statistical superiority of the non-linear structure and confirm the gradual trend to seek variety as the level of familiarity with the purchased items increases.

Population based resource allocation: The use of hybrid risk adjustment

The emphasis on integrated care implies new incentives that promote coordinationbetween levels of care. Considering a population as a whole, the resource allocation systemhas to adapt to this environment. This research is aimed to design a model that allows formorbidity related prospective and concurrent capitation payment. The model can be applied inpublicly funded health systems and managed competition settings.Methods: We analyze the application of hybrid risk adjustment versus either prospective orconcurrent risk adjustment formulae in the context of funding total health expenditures for thepopulation of an integrated healthcare delivery organization in Catalonia during years 2004 and2005.Results: The hybrid model reimburses integrated care organizations avoiding excessive risktransfer and maximizing incentives for efficiency in the provision. At the same time, it eliminatesincentives for risk selection for a specific set of high risk individuals through the use ofconcurrent reimbursement in order to assure a proper classification of patients.Conclusion: Prospective Risk Adjustment is used to transfer the financial risk to the healthprovider and therefore provide incentives for efficiency. Within the context of a National HealthSystem, such transfer of financial risk is illusory, and the government has to cover the deficits.Hybrid risk adjustment is useful to provide the right combination of incentive for efficiency andappropriate level of risk transfer for integrated care organizations.