Drug Analysis without Primary Reference Standards : Application of LC-TOFMS and LC-CLND to Biofluids and Seized Material

Drug Analysis without Primary Reference Standards: Application of LC-TOFMS and LC-CLND to Biofluids and Seized Material Primary reference standards for new drugs, metabolites, designer drugs or rare substances may not be obtainable within a reasonable period of time or their availability may also be hindered by extensive administrative requirements. Standards are usually costly and may have a limited shelf life. Finally, many compounds are not available commercially and sometimes not at all. A new approach within forensic and clinical drug analysis involves substance identification based on accurate mass measurement by liquid chromatography coupled with time-of-flight mass spectrometry (LC-TOFMS) and quantification by LC coupled with chemiluminescence nitrogen detection (LC-CLND) possessing equimolar response to nitrogen. Formula-based identification relies on the fact that the accurate mass of an ion from a chemical compound corresponds to the elemental composition of that compound. Single-calibrant nitrogen based quantification is feasible with a nitrogen-specific detector since approximately 90% of drugs contain nitrogen. A method was developed for toxicological drug screening in 1 ml urine samples by LC-TOFMS. A large target database of exact monoisotopic masses was constructed, representing the elemental formulae of reference drugs and their metabolites. Identification was based on matching the sample component s measured parameters with those in the database, including accurate mass and retention time, if available. In addition, an algorithm for isotopic pattern match (SigmaFit) was applied. Differences in ion abundance in urine extracts did not affect the mass accuracy or the SigmaFit values. For routine screening practice, a mass tolerance of 10 ppm and a SigmaFit tolerance of 0.03 were established. Seized street drug samples were analysed instantly by LC-TOFMS and LC-CLND, using a dilute and shoot approach. In the quantitative analysis of amphetamine, heroin and cocaine findings, the mean relative difference between the results of LC-CLND and the reference methods was only 11%. In blood specimens, liquid-liquid extraction recoveries for basic lipophilic drugs were first established and the validity of the generic extraction recovery-corrected single-calibrant LC-CLND was then verified with proficiency test samples. The mean accuracy was 24% and 17% for plasma and whole blood samples, respectively, all results falling within the confidence range of the reference concentrations. Further, metabolic ratios for the opioid drug tramadol were determined in a pharmacogenetic study setting. Extraction recovery estimation, based on model compounds with similar physicochemical characteristics, produced clinically feasible results without reference standards.

Genome-wide enrichment analysis between endometriosis and obesity-related traits reveals novel susceptibility loci

Endometriosis is a chronic inflammatory condition in women that results in pelvic pain and subfertility, and has been associated with decreased body mass index (BMI). Genetic variants contributing to the heritable component have started to emerge from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), although the majority remain unknown. Unexpectedly, we observed an intergenic locus on 7p15.2 that was genome-wide significantly associated with both endometriosis and fat distribution (waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI; WHRadjBMI) in an independent meta-GWAS of European ancestry individuals. This led us to investigate the potential overlap in genetic variants underlying the aetiology of endometriosis, WHRadjBMI and BMI using GWAS data. Our analyses demonstrated significant enrichment of common variants between fat distribution and endometriosis (P = 3.7 x 10(-3)), which was stronger when we restricted the investigation to more severe (Stage B) cases (P = 4.5 x 10(-4)). However, no genetic enrichment was observed between endometriosis and BMI (P = 0.79). In addition to 7p15.2, we identify four more variants with statistically significant evidence of involvement in both endometriosis and WHRadjBMI (in/near KIFAP3, CAB39L, WNT4, GRB14); two of these, KIFAP3 and CAB39L, are novel associations for both traits. KIFAP3, WNT4 and 7p15.2 are associated with the WNT signalling pathway; formal pathway analysis confirmed a statistically significant (P = 6.41 x 10(-4)) overrepresentation of shared associations in developmental processes/WNT signalling between the two traits. Our results demonstrate an example of potential biological pleiotropy that was hitherto unknown, and represent an opportunity for functional follow-up of loci and further cross-phenotype comparisons to assess how fat distribution and endometriosis pathogenesis research fields can inform each other.

Defining the role of common variation in the genomic and biological architecture of adult human height

Using genome-wide data from 253,288 individuals, we identified 697 variants at genome-wide significance that together explained one-fifth of the heritability for adult height. By testing different numbers of variants in independent studies, we show that the most strongly associated approximately 2,000, approximately 3,700 and approximately 9,500 SNPs explained approximately 21%, approximately 24% and approximately 29% of phenotypic variance. Furthermore, all common variants together captured 60% of heritability. The 697 variants clustered in 423 loci were enriched for genes, pathways and tissue types known to be involved in growth and together implicated genes and pathways not highlighted in earlier efforts, such as signaling by fibroblast growth factors, WNT/beta-catenin and chondroitin sulfate-related genes. We identified several genes and pathways not previously connected with human skeletal growth, including mTOR, osteoglycin and binding of hyaluronic acid. Our results indicate a genetic architecture for human height that is characterized by a very large but finite number (thousands) of causal variants.

Genome-wide association meta-analysis identifies new endometriosis risk loci

We conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis of 4,604 endometriosis cases and 9,393 controls of Japanese and European ancestry. We show that rs12700667 on chromosome 7p15.2, previously found to associate with disease in Europeans, replicates in Japanese (P = 3.6 x 10(-3)), and we confirm association of rs7521902 at 1p36.12 near WNT4. In addition, we establish an association of rs13394619 in GREB1 at 2p25.1 with endometriosis and identify a newly associated locus at 12q22 near VEZT (rs10859871). Excluding cases of European ancestry of minimal or unknown severity, we identified additional previously unknown loci at 2p14 (rs4141819), 6p22.3 (rs7739264) and 9p21.3 (rs1537377). All seven SNP effects were replicated in an independent cohort and associated at P <5 x 10(-8) in a combined analysis. Finally, we found a significant overlap in polygenic risk for endometriosis between the genome-wide association cohorts of European and Japanese descent (P = 8.8 x 10(-11)), indicating that many weakly associated SNPs represent true endometriosis risk loci and that risk prediction and future targeted disease therapy may be transferred across these populations.

Genome-wide meta-analysis of common variant differences between men and women

The male-to-female sex ratio at birth is constant across world populations with an average of 1.06 (106 male to 100 female live births) for populations of European descent. The sex ratio is considered to be affected by numerous biological and environmental factors and to have a heritable component. The aim of this study was to investigate the presence of common allele modest effects at autosomal and chromosome X variants that could explain the observed sex ratio at birth. We conducted a large-scale genome-wide association scan (GWAS) meta-analysis across 51 studies, comprising overall 114 863 individuals (61 094 women and 53 769 men) of European ancestry and 2 623 828 common (minor allele frequency >0.05) single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Allele frequencies were compared between men and women for directly-typed and imputed variants within each study. Forward-time simulations for unlinked, neutral, autosomal, common loci were performed under the demographic model for European populations with a fixed sex ratio and a random mating scheme to assess the probability of detecting significant allele frequency differences. We do not detect any genome-wide significant (P < 5 x 10(-8)) common SNP differences between men and women in this well-powered meta-analysis. The simulated data provided results entirely consistent with these findings. This large-scale investigation across ~115 000 individuals shows no detectable contribution from common genetic variants to the observed skew in the sex ratio. The absence of sex-specific differences is useful in guiding genetic association study design, for example when using mixed controls for sex-biased traits.

Statistical analysis of the associations of hereditary factors with the risk of Type 1 diabetes and Diabetic Nephropathy based on the familial data collected through ascertaiment from population-based registers

In genetic epidemiology, population-based disease registries are commonly used to collect genotype or other risk factor information concerning affected subjects and their relatives. This work presents two new approaches for the statistical inference of ascertained data: a conditional and full likelihood approaches for the disease with variable age at onset phenotype using familial data obtained from population-based registry of incident cases. The aim is to obtain statistically reliable estimates of the general population parameters. The statistical analysis of familial data with variable age at onset becomes more complicated when some of the study subjects are non-susceptible, that is to say these subjects never get the disease. A statistical model for a variable age at onset with long-term survivors is proposed for studies of familial aggregation, using latent variable approach, as well as for prospective studies of genetic association studies with candidate genes. In addition, we explore the possibility of a genetic explanation of the observed increase in the incidence of Type 1 diabetes (T1D) in Finland in recent decades and the hypothesis of non-Mendelian transmission of T1D associated genes. Both classical and Bayesian statistical inference were used in the modelling and estimation. Despite the fact that this work contains five studies with different statistical models, they all concern data obtained from nationwide registries of T1D and genetics of T1D. In the analyses of T1D data, non-Mendelian transmission of T1D susceptibility alleles was not observed. In addition, non-Mendelian transmission of T1D susceptibility genes did not make a plausible explanation for the increase in T1D incidence in Finland. Instead, the Human Leucocyte Antigen associations with T1D were confirmed in the population-based analysis, which combines T1D registry information, reference sample of healthy subjects and birth cohort information of the Finnish population. Finally, a substantial familial variation in the susceptibility of T1D nephropathy was observed. The presented studies show the benefits of sophisticated statistical modelling to explore risk factors for complex diseases.

Novel conditional mouse models for targeted kidney research : Emphasis on the analysis of the biological function of nephrin

Nephrin is a transmembrane protein belonging to the immunoglobulin superfamily and is expressed primarily in the podocytes, which are highly differentiated epithelial cells needed for primary urine formation in the kidney. Mutations leading to nephrin loss abrogate podocyte morphology, and result in massive protein loss into urine and consequent early death in humans carrying specific mutations in this gene. The disease phenotype is closely replicated in respective mouse models. The purpose of this thesis was to generate novel inducible mouse-lines, which allow targeted gene deletion in a time and tissue-specific manner. A proof of principle model for succesful gene therapy for this disease was generated, which allowed podocyte specific transgene replacement to rescue gene deficient mice from perinatal lethality. Furthermore, the phenotypic consequences of nephrin restoration in the kidney and nephrin deficiency in the testis, brain and pancreas in rescued mice were investigated. A novel podocyte-specific construct was achieved by using standard cloning techniques to provide an inducible tool for in vitro and in vivo gene targeting. Using modified constructs and microinjection procedures two novel transgenic mouse-lines were generated. First, a mouse-line with doxycycline inducible expression of Cre recombinase that allows podocyte-specific gene deletion was generated. Second, a mouse-line with doxycycline inducible expression of rat nephrin, which allows podocyte-specific nephrin over-expression was made. Furthermore, it was possible to rescue nephrin deficient mice from perinatal lethality by cross-breeding them with a mouse-line with inducible rat nephrin expression that restored the missing endogenous nephrin only in the kidney after doxycycline treatment. The rescued mice were smaller, infertile, showed genital malformations and developed distinct histological abnormalities in the kidney with an altered molecular composition of the podocytes. Histological changes were also found in the testis, cerebellum and pancreas. The expression of another molecule with limited tissue expression, densin, was localized to the plasma membranes of Sertoli cells in the testis by immunofluorescence staining. Densin may be an essential adherens junction protein between Sertoli cells and developing germ cells and these junctions share similar protein assembly with kidney podocytes. This single, binary conditional construct serves as a cost- and time-efficient tool to increase the understanding of podocyte-specific key proteins in health and disease. The results verified a tightly controlled inducible podocyte-specific transgene expression in vitro and in vivo as expected. These novel mouse-lines with doxycycline inducible Cre recombinase and with rat nephrin expression will be useful for conditional gene targeting of essential podocyte proteins and to study in detail their functions in the adult mice. This is important for future diagnostic and pharmacologic development platforms.

Identification of two novel human neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis genes

The neuronal ceroid lipofuscinoses (NCLs) are a group of mostly autosomal recessively inherited neurodegenerative disorders. The aim of this thesis was to characterize the molecular genetic bases of these, previously genetically undetermined, NCL forms. Congenital NCL is the most aggressive form of NCLs. Previously, a mutation in the cathepsin D (CTSD) gene was shown to cause congenital NCL in sheep. Based on the close resemblance of the phenotypes between congenital NCLs in sheep and human, CTSD was considered as a potential candidate gene in humans as well. When screened for mutations by sequencing, a homozygous nucleotide duplication creating a premature stop codon was identified in CTSD in one family with congenital NCL. While in vitro the overexpressed truncated mutant protein was stable although inactive, the absence of CTSD staining in brain tissue samples of patients indicated degradation of the mutant CTSD in vivo. A lack of CTSD staining was detected also in another, unrelated family with congenital NCL. These results imply that CTSD deficiency underlies congenital NCL. While initially Turkish vLINCL was considered a distinct genetic entity (CLN7), mutations in the CLN8 gene were later reported to account for the disease in a subset of Turkish patients with vLINCL. To further dissect the genetic basis of the disease, all known NCL genes were screened for homozygosity by haplotype analysis of microsatellite markers and/or sequenced in 13 mainly consanguineous, Turkish vLINCL families. Two novel, family-specific homozygous mutations were identified in the CLN6 gene. In the remaining families, all known NCL loci were excluded. To identify novel gene(s) underlying vLINCL, a genomewide single nucleotide polymorphism scan, homozygosity mapping, and positional candidate gene sequencing were performed in ten of these families. On chromosome 4q28.1-q28.2, a novel major facilitator superfamily domain containing 8 (MFSD8) gene with six family-specific homozygous mutations in vLINCL patients was identified. MFSD8 transcript was shown to be ubiquitously expressed with a complex pattern of alternative splicing. Our results suggest that MFSD8 is a novel lysosomal integral membrane protein which, as a member of the major facilitator superfamily, is predicted to function as a transporter. Identification of MFSD8 emphasizes the genetic heterogeneity of Turkish vLINCL. In families where no MFSD8 mutations were detected, additional NCL-causing genes remain to be identified. The identification of CTSD and MFSD8 increases the number of known human NCL-causing genes to eight, and is an important step towards the complete understanding of the genetic spectrum underlying NCLs. In addition, it is a starting point for dissecting the molecular mechanisms behind the associated NCLs and contributes to the challenging task of understanding the molecular pathology underlying the group of NCL disorders.

Meta-analysis of telomere length in 19 713 subjects reveals high heritability, stronger maternal inheritance and a paternal age effect

Telomere length (TL) has been associated with aging and mortality, but individual differences are also influenced by genetic factors, with previous studies reporting heritability estimates ranging from 34 to 82%. Here we investigate the heritability, mode of inheritance and the influence of parental age at birth on TL in six large, independent cohort studies with a total of 19 713 participants. The meta-analysis estimate of TL heritability was 0.70 (95% CI 0.64–0.76) and is based on a pattern of results that is highly similar for twins and other family members. We observed a stronger mother–offspring (r=0.42; P-value=3.60 × 10−61) than father–offspring correlation (r=0.33; P-value=7.01 × 10−5), and a significant positive association with paternal age at offspring birth (β=0.005; P-value=7.01 × 10−5). Interestingly, a significant and quite substantial correlation in TL between spouses (r=0.25; P-value=2.82 × 10−30) was seen, which appeared stronger in older spouse pairs (mean age ≥55 years; r=0.31; P-value=4.27 × 10−23) than in younger pairs (mean age<55 years; r=0.20; P-value=3.24 × 10−10). In summary, we find a high and very consistent heritability estimate for TL, evidence for a maternal inheritance component and a positive association with paternal age.

Development of regulatory T cells in the human thymus

The role of the immune system is to protect an organism against pathogens while maintaining tolerance against self. T cells are an essential component of the immune system and they develop in the thymus. The AIRE (autoimmune regulator) gene product plays an important role in T cell development, as it promotes expression of peripheral tissue antigens in the thymus. Developing T cells, thymocytes, which recognize self-antigens with high affinity are deleted. However, this deletion process is not perfect and not all autoreactive T cells are destroyed. When the distinction between self and non-self fails, tolerance breaks and the immune system attacks the host s own tissues. This results in autoimmunity. Regulatory T cells contribute to the maintenance of self-tolerance. They can actively suppress the function of autoreactive cells. Several populations of cells with regulatory properties have been described, but the best characterized population is the natural regulatory T cells (Treg cells), which develop in the thymus and express the transcription factor FOXP3. The thymic development of Treg cells in humans is the subject of this thesis. Thymocytes at different developmental stages were analyzed using flow cytometry. The CD4-CD8- double-negative (DN) thymocytes are the earliest T cell precursors in the T cell lineage. My results show that the Treg cell marker FOXP3 is up-regulated already in a subset of these DN thymocytes. FOXP3+ cells were also found among the more mature CD4+CD8+ double-positive (DP) cells and among the CD4+ and CD8+ single-positive (SP) thymocytes. The different developmental stages of the FOXP3+ thymocytes were isolated and their gene expression examined by quantitative PCR. T cell receptor (TCR) repertoire analysis was used to compare these different thymocyte populations. My data show that in humans commitment to the Treg cell lineage is an early event and suggest that the development of Treg cells follows a linear developmental pathway, FOXP3+ DN precursors evolving through the DP stage to become mature CD4+ Treg cells. Most T cells have only one kind of TCR on their cell surface, but a small fraction of cells expresses two different TCRs. My results show that the expression of two different TCRs is enriched among Treg cells. Furthermore, both receptors were capable of transmitting signals when bound by a ligand. By extrapolating flow cytometric data, it was estimated that the majority of peripheral blood Treg cells are indeed dual-specific. The high frequency of dual-specific cells among human Treg cells suggests that dual-specificity has a role in directing these cells to the Treg cell lineage. It is known that both genetic predisposition and environmental factors influence the development of autoimmunity. It is also known that the dysfunction or absence of Treg cells leads to the development of autoimmune manifestations. APECED (autoimmune polyendocrinopathy-candidiasis-ectodermal dystrophy) is a rare monogenic autoimmune disease, caused by mutations in the AIRE gene. In the absence of AIRE gene product, deletion of self-specific T cells is presumably disturbed and autoreactive T cells escape to the periphery. I examined whether Treg cells are also affected in APECED. I found that the frequency of FOXP3+ Treg cells and the level of FOXP3 expression were significantly lower in APECED patients than in controls. Additionally, when studied in cell cultures, the suppressive capacity of the patients' Treg cells was impaired. Additionally, repertoire analysis showed that the TCR repertoire of Treg cells was altered. These results suggest that AIRE contributes to the development of Treg cells in humans and the selection of Treg cells is impaired in APECED patients. In conclusion, my thesis elucidates the developmental pathway of Treg cells in humans. The differentiation of Tregs begins early during thymic development and both the cells dual-specificity and AIRE probably affect the final commitment of Treg cells.

Meta-analysis of genome-wide association for migraine in six population-based European cohorts

Migraine is a common neurological disorder with a genetically complex background. This paper describes a meta-analysis of genome-wide association (GWA) studies on migraine, performed by the Dutch-Icelandic migraine genetics (DICE) consortium, which brings together six population-based European migraine cohorts with a total sample size of 10,980 individuals (2446 cases and 8534 controls). A total of 32 SNPs showed marginal evidence for association at a P-value<10(-5). The best result was obtained for SNP rs9908234, which had a P-value of 8.00 x 10(-8). This top SNP is located in the nerve growth factor receptor (NGFR) gene. However, this SNP did not replicate in three cohorts from the Netherlands and Australia. Of the other 31 SNPs, 18 SNPs were tested in two replication cohorts, but none replicated. In addition, we explored previously identified candidate genes in the meta-analysis data set. This revealed a modest gene-based significant association between migraine and the metadherin (MTDH) gene, previously identified in the first clinic-based GWA study (GWAS) for migraine (Bonferroni-corrected gene-based P-value=0.026). This finding is consistent with the involvement of the glutamate pathway in migraine. Additional research is necessary to further confirm the involvement of glutamate.

Search for genetic variants influencing human height

Human growth and attained height are determined by a combination of genetic and environmental effects and in modern Western societies > 80% of the observed variation in height is determined by genetic factors. Height is a fundamental human trait that is associated with many socioeconomic and psychosocial factors and health measures, however little is known of the identity of the specific genes that influence height variation in the general population. This thesis work aimed to identify the genetic variants that influence height in the general population by genome-wide linkage analysis utilizing large family samples. The study focused on analysis of three separate sets of families consisting of: 1) 1,417 individuals from 277 Finnish families (FinnHeight), 2) 8,450 individuals from 3,817 families from Australia and Europe (EUHeight) and 3) 9,306 individuals from 3,302 families from the United States (USHeight). The most significant finding in this study was found in the Finnish family sample where we a locus in the chromosomal region 1p21 was linked to adult height. Several regions showed evidence for linkage in the Australian, European and US families with 8q21 and 15q25 being the most significant. The region on 1p21 was followed up with further studies and we were able to show that the collagen 11-alpha-1 gene (COL11A1) residing at this location was associated with adult height. This association was also confirmed in an independent Finnish population cohort (Health 2000) consisting of 6,542 individuals. From this population sample, we estimated that homozygous males and females for this gene variant were 1.1 and 0.6 cm taller than the respective controls. In this thesis work we identified a gene variant in the COL11A1 gene that influences human height, although this variant alone explains only 0.1% of height variation in the Finnish population. We also demonstrated in this study that special stratification strategies such as performing sex-limited analyses, focusing on dizygous twin pairs, analyzing ethnic groups within a population separately and utilizing homogenous populations such as the Finns can improve the statistical power of finding QTL significantly. Also, we concluded from the results of this study that even though genetic effects explain a great proportion of height variance, it is likely that there are tens or even hundreds of genes with small individual effects underlying the genetic architecture of height.

Common SNPs explain a large proportion of the heritability for human height

SNPs discovered by genome-wide association studies (GWASs) account for only a small fraction of the genetic variation of complex traits in human populations. Where is the remaining heritability? We estimated the proportion of variance for human height explained by 294,831 SNPs genotyped on 3,925 unrelated individuals using a linear model analysis, and validated the estimation method with simulations based on the observed genotype data. We show that 45% of variance can be explained by considering all SNPs simultaneously. Thus, most of the heritability is not missing but has not previously been detected because the individual effects are too small to pass stringent significance tests. We provide evidence that the remaining heritability is due to incomplete linkage disequilibrium between causal variants and genotyped SNPs, exacerbated by causal variants having lower minor allele frequency than the SNPs explored to date.

Susceptibility locus on chromosome 1q23-25 for a schizophrenia subtype resembling deficit schizophrenia identified by latent class analysis

Context: Identifying susceptibility genes for schizophrenia may be complicated by phenotypic heterogeneity, with some evidence suggesting that phenotypic heterogeneity reflects genetic heterogeneity. Objective: To evaluate the heritability and conduct genetic linkage analyses of empirically derived, clinically homogeneous schizophrenia subtypes. Design: Latent class and linkage analysis. Setting: Taiwanese field research centers. Participants: The latent class analysis included 1236 Han Chinese individuals with DSM-IV schizophrenia. These individuals were members of a large affected-sibling-pair sample of schizophrenia (606 ascertained families), original linkage analyses of which detected a maximum logarithm of odds (LOD) of 1.8 (z = 2.88) on chromosome 10q22.3. Main Outcome Measures: Multipoint exponential LOD scores by latent class assignment and parametric heterogeneity LOD scores. Results: Latent class analyses identified 4 classes, with 2 demonstrating familial aggregation. The first (LC2) described a group with severe negative symptoms, disorganization, and pronounced functional impairment, resembling “deficit schizophrenia.” The second (LC3) described a group with minimal functional impairment, mild or absent negative symptoms, and low disorganization. Using the negative/deficit subtype, we detected genome-wide significant linkage to 1q23-25 (LOD = 3.78, empiric genome-wide P = .01). This region was not detected using the DSM-IV schizophrenia diagnosis, but has been strongly implicated in schizophrenia pathogenesis by previous linkage and association studies.Variants in the 1q region may specifically increase risk for a negative/deficit schizophrenia subtype. Alternatively, these results may reflect increased familiality/heritability of the negative class, the presence of multiple 1q schizophrenia risk genes, or a pleiotropic 1q risk locus or loci, with stronger genotype-phenotype correlation with negative/deficit symptoms. Using the second familial latent class, we identified nominally significant linkage to the original 10q peak region. Conclusion: Genetic analyses of heritable, homogeneous phenotypes may improve the power of linkage and association studies of schizophrenia and thus have relevance to the design and analysis of genome-wide association studies.

Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of plant pest invasions with human-mediated dispersal

Hierarchical Bayesian models can assimilate surveillance and ecological information to estimate both invasion extent and model parameters for invading plant pests spread by people. A reliability analysis framework that can accommodate multiple dispersal modes is developed to estimate human-mediated dispersal parameters for an invasive species. Uncertainty in the observation process is modelled by accounting for local natural spread and population growth within spatial units. Broad scale incursion dynamics are based on a mechanistic gravity model with a Weibull distribution modification to incorporate a local pest build-up phase. The model uses Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to infer the probability of colonisation times for discrete spatial units and to estimate connectivity parameters between these units. The hierarchical Bayesian model with observational and ecological components is applied to a surveillance dataset for a spiralling whitefly (Aleurodicus dispersus) invasion in Queensland, Australia. The model structure provides a useful application that draws on surveillance data and ecological knowledge that can be used to manage the risk of pest movement.