Iowa Leading Indicators Index April 2010

The Iowa Leading Indicators Index (ILII) is a tool for monitoring the future direction of the Iowa economy and State revenues. Its eight components include an agricultural futures price index, an Iowa stock market index, average weekly manufacturing hours in Iowa, initial unemployment claims in Iowa, an Iowa new orders index, diesel fuel consumption in Iowa, residential building permits in Iowa, and the national yield spread.

Summary of FY 2011 Budget and Governor's Recommendations, February 1, 2010

The purpose of this document is to provide the General Assembly with information concerning FY 2011 General Fund estimated receipts and the Governor’s budget recommendations. The information provides an overall summary of the State budget and is intended to help the General Assembly take a proactive approach to the budgetary process. In addition, the document is intended to provide the General Assembly with an overview of the General Fund, including revenues and expenditures. Information regarding other State appropriated funds is also included. If you need additional information regarding Department requests, Governor’s recommendations, or other fiscal information, refer to the Fiscal Services Division staff listing. The staff listing will indicate the appropriate analyst to contact for detailed information by subcommittee and subject area.

Experimental cerebral malaria develops independently of caspase recruitment domain-containing protein 9 signaling.

The outcome of infection depends on multiple layers of immune regulation, with innate immunity playing a decisive role in shaping protection or pathogenic sequelae of acquired immunity. The contribution of pattern recognition receptors and adaptor molecules in immunity to malaria remains poorly understood. Here, we interrogate the role of the caspase recruitment domain-containing protein 9 (CARD9) signaling pathway in the development of experimental cerebral malaria (ECM) using the murine Plasmodium berghei ANKA infection model. CARD9 expression was upregulated in the brains of infected wild-type (WT) mice, suggesting a potential role for this pathway in ECM pathogenesis. However, P. berghei ANKA-infected Card9(-/-) mice succumbed to neurological signs and presented with disrupted blood-brain barriers similar to WT mice. Furthermore, consistent with the immunological features associated with ECM in WT mice, Card9(-/-) mice revealed (i) elevated levels of proinflammatory responses, (ii) high frequencies of activated T cells, and (iii) CD8(+) T cell arrest in the cerebral microvasculature. We conclude that ECM develops independently of the CARD9 signaling pathway.

2011 - 2015 Iowa Transportation Improvement Program

The Iowa Transportation Improvement Program (Program) is published to inform Iowans of planned investments in our state’s transportation system. The Iowa Transportation Commission (Commission) and Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) are committed to programming those investments in a fiscally responsible manner. This document serves as the Iowa DOT's annual report as required by Iowa Code section 7A.9. This document reflects Iowa’s multimodal transportation system by the inclusion of investments in aviation, transit, railroads, trails, and highways. A major component of this program is the highway section that documents programmed investments on the primary highway system for the next five years. A large part of funding available for highway programming comes from the federal government. Accurately estimating future funding levels of this federal funding is dependent on having a current enacted multi-year federal transportation authorization. The most recent authorization, Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU), expired September 30, 2009, and to date it has been extended five times because a new authorization has not yet been enacted. The current extension expires December 31, 2010. While Iowa law does not require the adoption of a Program when federal transportation funding is being reauthorized, the Commission believes it is important to adopt a Program in order to continue on-going planning and project development efforts and to be well positioned when a new authorization is adopted. However, it is important to recognize that, absent a federal authorization bill, there is significant uncertainty in the forecast of federal revenues. The Commission and the Iowa DOT will continue to monitor federal revenues and will adjust future investments as needed to maintain a fiscally responsible Program. In developing the highway section of the program, the Commission’s primary investment objective remains stewardship (i.e. safety, maintenance and preservation) of Iowa’s existing highway system. In fact, over $1.2 billion is programmed in FY2011 through FY2015 for preservation of Iowa’s existing highway system and for enhanced highway safety features. The highway section also includes significant investments for interstate modernization on I-29 inSioux City, on I-29/80/480 in Council Bluffs, and on I-74 in Bettendorf/ Davenport. Another highway programming objective reflected in this Program is maintaining the scheduled completion of capacity and economic development projects that were identified in the previous Program. Finally, with the limited remaining funds the Commission has furthered the investment in capacity and economic development by adding a few projects to the Program. The Iowa DOT and Commission appreciate the public’s involvement in the state’s transportation planning process. Comments received personally, by letter or through participation in the Commission’s regular meetings or public input meetings held around the state each year, are invaluable in providing guidance for the future of Iowa’s transportation system.

Study Regarding Implementation of a Uniform Statewide System to Allow for Electronic Transactions for the Registration and Titling of Motor Vehicles

LEGISLATIVE STUDY – The 83rd General Assembly of the Iowa Legislature, in Senate File 2273, directed the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) to conduct a study of how to implement a uniform statewide system to allow for electronic transactions for the registration and titling of motor vehicles. PARTICIPANTS IN STUDY – As directed by Senate File 2273, the DOT formed a working group to conduct the study that included representatives from the Consumer Protection Division of the Office of the Attorney General, the Department of Public Safety, the Department of Revenue, the Iowa State County Treasurer’s Association, the Iowa Automobile Dealers Association, and the Iowa Independent Automobile Dealers Association. CONDUCT OF THE STUDY – The working group met eight times between June 17, 2010, and October 1, 2010. The group discussed the costs and benefits of electronic titling from the perspectives of new and used motor vehicle dealers, county treasurers, the DOT, lending institutions, consumers and consumer protection, and law enforcement. Security concerns, legislative implications, and implementation timelines were also considered. In the course of the meetings the group: 1. Reviewed the specific goals of S.F. 2273, and viewed a demonstration of Iowa’s current vehicle registration and titling system so participants that were not users of the system could gain an understanding of its current functionality and capabilities. 2. Reviewed the results of a survey of county treasurers conducted by the DOT to determine the extent to which county treasurers had processing backlogs and the extent to which county treasurers limited the number of dealer registration and titling transactions that they would process in a single day and while the dealer waited. Only eight reported placing a limit on the number of dealer transactions that would be processed while the dealer waited (with the number ranging from one to four), and only 11 reported a backlog in processing registration and titling transactions as of June 11, 2010, with most backlogs being reported in the range of one to three days. 3. Conducted conference calls with representatives of the American Association of Motor Vehicle Administrators (AAMVA) and representatives of three states -- Kansas, which has an electronic lien and titling (ELT) program, and Wisconsin and Florida, each of which have both an ELT program and an electronic registration and titling (ERT) program – to assess current and best practices for electronic transactions. In addition, the DOT (through AAMVA) submitted a survey to all U.S. jurisdictions to determine how, if at all, other states implemented electronic transactions for the registration and titling of motor vehicles. Twenty-eight states responded to the survey; of the 28 states that responded, only 13 allowed liens to be added or released electronically, and only five indicated allowing applications for registration and titling to be submitted electronically. DOT staff also heard a presentation from South Dakota on its ERT system at an AAMVA regional meeting. ELT information that emerged suggests a multi-vendor approach, in which vendors that meet state specifications for participation are authorized to interface with the state’s system to serve as a portal between lenders and the state system, will facilitate electronic lien releases and additions by offering lenders more choices and the opportunity to use the same vendor in multiple states. The ERT information that emerged indicates a multi-interface approach that offers an interface with existing dealer management software (DMS) systems and through a separate internet site will facilitate ERT by offering access that meets a variety of business needs and models. In both instances, information that emerged indicates that, in the long-term, adoption rates are positively affected by making participation above a certain minimum threshold mandatory. 4. To assess and compare functions or services that might be offered by or through a vendor, the group heard presentations from vendors that offer products or services that facilitate some aspect of ELT or ERT. 5. To assess the concerns, needs and interest of Iowa motor vehicle dealers, the group surveyed dealers to assess registration and titling difficulties experienced by dealers, the types of DMS systems (if any) used by dealers, and the dealers’ interest and preference in using an electronic interface to submit applications for registration and titling. Overall, 40% of the dealers that responded indicated interest and 57% indicated no interest, but interest was pronounced among new car dealers (75% were interested) and dealers with a high number of monthly transactions (85% of dealers averaging more than 50 sales per month were interested). The majority of dealers responding to the dealer survey ranked delays in processing and problems with daily limits on transaction as ―minor difficulty or ―no difficulty. RECOMMENDATIONS -- At the conclusion of the meetings, the working group discussed possible approaches for implementation of electronic transactions in Iowa and reached a consensus that a phased implementation of electronic titling that addressed first electronic lien and title transactions (ELT) and electronic fund transfers (EFT), and then electronic applications for registration and titling (ERT) is recommended. The recommendation of a phased implementation is based upon recognition that aspects of ELT and EFT are foundational to ERT, and that ELT and EFT solutions are more readily and easily attained than the ERT solution, which will take longer and be somewhat more difficult to develop and will require federal approval of an electronic odometer statement to fully implement. ELT – A multi-vendor approach is proposed for ELT. No direct costs to the state, counties, consumers, or dealers are anticipated under this approach. The vendor charges participating lenders user or transaction fees for the service, and it appears the lenders typically absorb those costs due to the savings offered by ELT. Existing staff can complete the programming necessary to interface the state system with vendors’ systems. The estimated time to implement ELT is six to nine months. Mandatory participation is not recommended initially, but should be considered after ELT has been implemented and a suitable number of vendors have enrolled to provide a fair assessment of participation rates and opportunities. EFT – A previous attempt to implement ELT and EFT was terminated due to concern that it would negatively impact county revenues by reducing interest income earned on state funds collected by the county and held until the monthly transfer to the state. To avoid that problem in this implementation, the EFT solution should remain revenue neutral to the counties, by allowing fees submitted by EFT to be immediately directed to the proper county account. Because ARTS was designed and has the capacity to accommodate EFT, a vendor is not needed to implement EFT. The estimated time to implement EFT is six to nine months. It is expected that EFT development will overlap ELT development. ERT – ERT itself must be developed in phases. It will not be possible to quickly implement a fully functioning, paperless ERT system, because federal law requires that transfer of title be accompanied by a written odometer statement unless approval for an alternate electronic statement is granted by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). It is expected that it will take as much as a year or more to obtain NHTSA approval, and that NHTSA approval will require design of a system that requires the seller to electronically confirm the seller’s identity, make the required disclosure to the buyer, and then transfer the disclosure to the buyer, who must also electronically confirm the buyer’s identity and electronically review and accept the disclosure to complete and submit the transaction. Given the time that it will take to develop and gain approval for this solution, initial ERT implementation will focus on completing and submitting applications and issuing registration applied for cards electronically, with the understanding that this process will still require submission of paper documents until an electronic odometer solution is developed. Because continued submission of paper documents undermines the efficiencies sought, ―full‖ ERT – that is, all documents necessary for registration and titling should be capable of approval and/or acceptance by all parties, and should be capable of submission without transmittal or delivery of duplicate paper documents .– should remain the ultimate goal. ERT is not recommended as a means to eliminate review and approval of registration and titling transactions by the county treasurers, or to place registration and titling approval in the hands of the dealers, as county treasurers perform an important role in deterring fraud and promoting accuracy by determining the genuineness and regularity of each application. Authorizing dealers to act as registration agents that approve registration and title applications, issue registration receipts, and maintain and deliver permanent metal license plates is not recommended. Although distribution of permanent plates by dealers is not recommended, it is recommended that dealers participating in ERT generate and print registration applied for cards electronically. Unlike the manually-issued cards currently in use, cards issued in this fashion may be queried by law enforcement and are less susceptible to misuse by customers and dealers. The estimated time to implement the electronic application and registration applied for cards is 12 to 18 months, to begin after ELT and EFT have been implemented. It is recommended that focus during this time be on facilitating transfers through motor vehicle dealers, with initial deployment focused on higher-volume dealers that use DMS systems. In the long term an internet option for access to ERT must also be developed and maintained to allow participation for lower-volume dealers that do not use a DMS system. This option will also lay the ground work for an ERT option for sales between private individuals. Mandatory participation in Iowa is not recommended initially. As with ELT, it is recommended that mandatory participation be considered after at least an initial phase of ERT has been implemented and a suitable number of dealers have enrolled to provide a fair assessment of participation rates and opportunities. The use of vendors to facilitate ERT is not initially proposed because 1) DOT IT support staff is capable of developing a system that will interact with DMS systems and will still have to develop a dealer and public interface regardless of whether a vendor acts as intermediary between the DMS systems, and 2) there is concern that the cost of the vendor-based system, which is funded by transaction-based payments from the dealer to the vendor, will be passed to the consumer in the form of additional documentation or conveyance fees. However, the DOT recommends flexibility on this point, as development and pilot of the system may indicate that a multi-vendor approach similar to that recommended for ELT may increase the adoption rate by larger dealers and may ultimately decrease the user management to be exercised by DOT staff. If vendors are used in the process, additional legislation or administrative rules may be needed to control the fees that may be passed to the consumer. No direct cost to the DOT or county treasurers is expected, as the DOT expects that it may complete necessary programming with existing staff. Use of vendors to facilitate ERT transactions by dealers using DMS systems would result in transaction fees that may ultimately be passed to consumers. LEGISLATION – As a result of the changes implemented in 2004 under Senate File 2070, the only changes to Iowa statutes proposed are to section 321.69 of the Iowa Code, ―Damage disclosure statement,and section 321.71, ―Odometer requirements.‖ In each instance, authority to execute these statements by electronic means would be clarified by authorizing language similar to that used in section 321.20, subsections ―2‖ and ―3,‖ which allows for electronic applications and directs the department to ―adopt rules on the method for providing signatures for applications made by electronic means.‖ In these sections, the authorizing language might read as follows: Notwithstanding contrary provisions of this section, the department may develop and implement a program to allow for any statement required by this section to be made electronically. The department shall adopt rules on the method for providing signatures for statements made by electronic means. Some changes to DOT administrative rules will be useful but only to enable changes to work processes that would be desirable in the long term. Examples of long term work processes that would be enabled by rule changes include allowing for signatures created through electronic means and electronic odometer certifications. The DOT rules, as currently written, do not hinder the ability to proceed with ELT, EFT, and ERT.

Die Befragung von Menschen am Rande der Gesellschaft: Bericht über eine Feldstudie bei Alkohol- und Drogenkranken im öffentlichen Raum.

Im Jahr 2008 befragte eine Forschergruppe randständige Menschen, die sich im öffentlichen Raum treffen, und ihr Umfeld in fünf kleineren und grösseren Schweizer Städten. Die Forschenden wollten sich dabei nicht nur der Suchtproblematik widmen, sondern auch Angaben zum sozialen Netzwerk, der psychischen und physischen Gesundheit und der Motivation der Randständigen für ihren Aufenthalt in der Öffentlichkeit erhalten. Die Resultate der Studie wurden bereits früher publiziert. In diesem Artikel geht es um die Rahmenbedingungen, welche die Befragungen der Menschen am Rande der Gesellschaft möglich machten. Er zeigt, dass es zentral ist, eine vertrauensvolle Beziehung zwischen Befragenden und Randständigen aufzubauen, wenn Angaben in guter Qualität gewonnen werden sollen. Der Bericht zeigt, dass mit einer offenen und zuhörenden Haltung der Befragenden die Randständigenkeineswegs abgeneigt sind, diesen Auskunft auch über persönliche Themen zu geben. Für sie war es eine Gelegenheit, ihre Anliegen über die Grenzen ihrer Szene hinaus zu kommunizieren. [Autoren]

Molecular and Functional Characterization of Neuroblastoma-Initiating Cells

Neuroblastoma (NB) is the most common extracranial malignant tumor in young children and arises at any site of the sympathetic nervous system. The disease exhibits a remarkable phenotypic diversity ranging from spontaneous regression to fatal disease. Poor outcome results from a rapidly progressive, metastatic and drug-resistant disease. Recent studies have suggested that solid tumors may arise from a minor population of cancer stem cells (CSCs) with stem cell markers and typical properties such as self-renewal ability, asymmetric division and drug resistance. In this model, CSCs possess the exclusive ability to initiate and maintain the tumor, and to produce distant metastases. Tumor cell subpopulations with stem-like phenotypes have indeed been identified in several cancer including leukemia, breast, brain and colon cancers. CSC hypothesis still needs to be validated in the other cancers including NB.NB originates from neural crest-derived malignant sympatho-adrenal cells. We have identified rare cells that express markers in conformity with neural crest stem cells and their derived lineages within primary NB tissue and cell lines, leading us to postulate the existence of CSCs in NB tumors.In the absence of specific markers to isolate CSCs, we adapted to NB tumor cells the sphere functional assay, based on the ability of stem cells to grow as spheres in non-adherent conditions. By serial passages of spheres from bone marrow NB metastases, a subset of cells was gradually selected and its specific gene expression profile identified by micro-array time-course analysis. The differentially expressed genes in spheres are enriched in genes implicated in development including CD133, ABC-transporters, WNT and NOTCH genes, identified in others solid cancers as CSCs markers, and other new markers, all referred by us as the Neurosphere Expression Profile (NEP). We confirmed the presence of a cell subpopulation expressing a combination of the NEP markers within a few primary NB samples.The tumorigenic potential of NB spheres was assayed by in vivo tumor growth analyses using orthotopic (adrenal glands) implantations of tumor cells into immune-compromised mice. Tumors derived from the sphere cells were significantly more frequent and were detected earlier compared to whole tumor cells. However, NB cells expressing the neurosphere-associated genes and isolated from the bulk tumors did not recapitulate the CSC-like phenotype in the orthotopic model. In addition, the NB sphere cells lost their higher tumorigenic potential when implanted in a subcutaneous heterotopic in vivo model.These results highlighted the complex behavior of CSC functions and led us to consider the stem-like NB cells as a dynamic and heterogeneous cell population influenced by microenvironment signals.Our approach identified for the first time candidate genes that may be associated with NB self-renewal and tumorigenicity and therefore would establish specific functional targets for more effective therapies in aggressive NB.

Breaking the panels: an application to the GDP per capita

This paper proposes a test statistic for the null hypothesis of panel stationarity that allows for the presence of multiple structural breaks. Two different speci¿cations are considered depending on the structural breaks affecting the individual effects and/or the time trend. The model is ¿exible enough to allow the number of breaks and their position to differ across individuals. The test is shown to have an exact limit distribution with a good ¿nite sample performance. Its application to a typical panel data set of real per capita GDP gives support to the trend stationarity of these series

Algunes reflexions sobre la construcció d'indicadors indirectes pel seguiment de l'activitat industrial regional

En un gran nombre d'economies, l'evolució de la producció industrial s'analitza a partir de la informació sobre el Producte Industrial Brut i/o el Valor Afegit Brut que proporcionen les Comptabilitats Nacionals. A Espanya, la utilització d'aquestes dades presenta el problema que no estan disponibles tan ràpidament com seria desitjable. En conseqüència, no és possible realitzar un seguiment a curt termini de l'activitat industrial a partir dels mateixos. Per a solucionar aquest problema, l'Institut Nacional d'Estadística elabora un Índex de Producció Industrial mensual a partir de la informació obtinguda a través d'una enquesta dirigida a una mostra representativa de les empreses espanyoles. No obstant això, a nivell regional, les dificultats per a realitzar un seguiment de l'activitat industrial són majors a causa de l'escassesa d'informació estadística. Durant els últims anys, diferents institucions públiques i privades han començat a elaborar indicadors d'activitat per a algunes regions espanyoles, encara que a partir de metodologies no homogènies, de manera que aquests índexs no són directament comparables. Per a corregir aquesta situació, en diferents fòrums s'ha proposat emprar la metodologia utilitzada per l'Institut d'Estadística de Catalunya (IEC) per a la comunitat catalana com alternativa per a aquelles comunitats espanyoles que no disposen d'un indicador de l'activitat industrial, atès que per a Catalunya resulta una metodologia adequada. En aquest treball s'estudia la idoneïtat d'estendre aquesta metodologia a la resta de regions espanyoles. Per a això, es construeixen uns indicadors d'acord amb la metodologia del IEC i es comparen amb els índexs regionals obtinguts per mètodes directes per a tres de les quatre regions que existeixen: Andalusia, Astúries i Euskadi

Trimestralización y conciliación de magnitudes económicas : una ampliación del método Chow-Lin

Una de las herramientas estadísticas más importantes para el seguimiento y análisis de la evolución de la actividad económica a corto plazo es la disponibilidad de estimaciones de la evolución trimestral de los componentes del PIB, en lo que afecta tanto a la oferta como a la demanda. La necesidad de disponer de esta información con un retraso temporal reducido hace imprescindible la utilización de métodos de trimestralización que permitan desagregar la información anual a trimestral. El método más aplicado, puesto que permite resolver este problema de manera muy elegante bajo un enfoque estadístico de estimador óptimo, es el método de Chow-Lin. Pero este método no garantiza que las estimaciones trimestrales del PIB en lo que respecta a la oferta y a la demanda coincidan, haciendo necesaria la aplicación posterior de algún método de conciliación. En este trabajo se desarrolla una ampliación multivariante del método de Chow-Lin que permite resolver el problema de la estimación de los valores trimestrales de manera óptima, sujeta a un conjunto de restricciones. Una de las aplicaciones potenciales de este método, que hemos denominado método de Chow-Lin restringido, es precisamente la estimación conjunta de valores trimestrales para cada uno de los componentes del PIB en lo que afecta tanto a la demanda como a la oferta condicionada a que ambas estimaciones trimestrales del PIB sean iguales, evitando así la necesidad de aplicar posteriormente métodos de conciliación

Is football an indicator of development at the international level?

[spa] El objetivo de este trabajo es examinar si el fútbol puede ser considerado como un indicador de desarrollo a nivel internacional. Se ha diseñado un modelo econométrico empírico con el fin de analizar el desarrollo en términos de niveles de PIB per cápita y del crecimiento del PIB. Se utiliza información transversal y temporal. Los resultados sugieren que la clasificación FIFA de las selecciones nacionales se puede utilizar para complementar nuestra comprensión del desarrollo multidimensional en aquellos países donde la disponibilidad de la información no es tan buena como los investigadores quisieran.

The effects of tax deductibility on the mix of property taxes and use charges: an empirical analysis of the spanish case

This paper tests some hypothesis about the determinants of the local tax structure. In particular, we focus on the effects that the property tax deductibility in the national income tax has on the relative use of the property tax and user charges. We deal with the incentive effects that local governments face regarding the different sources of revenue by means of a model in which the local tax structure and the level of public expenditure arise as a result of the maximizing behaviour of local politicians subject to the economic effects of the tax system. We attempt to test the hypothesis developed with data corresponding to a set of Spanish municipalities during the period 1987-9l. We find that tax deductibility provides incentives to raise revenues from the property tax but does not introduce a biass against user charges or in favor of overall spending growth

¿Las patentes aceleran o retrasan la comercialización de nuevos medicamentos en los países en desarrollo?

Este trabajo analiza el impacto de las patentes en la dinámica de introducción de nuevos medicamentos en diferentes mercados nacionales. El estudio de un conjunto de mercados de medicamentos contra el VIH/SIDA en una muestra de países en desarrollo indica que las patentes sólo aceleran significativamente la introducción de los nuevos medicamentos después de que hayan pasado entre 1 y 4 años desde su lanzamiento mundial. Las patentes impiden que se introduzcan copias locales de los nuevos medicamentos comercializados por las grandes multinacionales, y la falta de competencia y los mayores precios de introducción resultantes ofrece a las multinacionales mayores ingresos en la comercialización de nuevos medicamentos mientras dura la patente. Sin embargo, el incentivo económico que debería acelerar la disponibilidad de nuevos medicamentos parece operar con cierto retraso

New Estimates of Regional GDP in Spain, 1860-1930

This paper presents a new regional database on GDP in Spain for the years 1860, 1900, 1914 and 1930. Following Geary and Stark (2002), country level GDP estimates are allocated across Spanish provinces. The results are then compared with previous estimates. Further, this new evidence is used to analyze the evolution of regional inequality and convergence in the long run. According to the distribution dynamics approach suggested by Quah (1993, 1996) persistence appears as a main feature in the regional distribution of output. Therefore, in the long run no evidence of regional convergence in the Spanish economy is found.

Is football an indicator of development at the international level?

[spa] El objetivo de este trabajo es examinar si el fútbol puede ser considerado como un indicador de desarrollo a nivel internacional. Se ha diseñado un modelo econométrico empírico con el fin de analizar el desarrollo en términos de niveles de PIB per cápita y del crecimiento del PIB. Se utiliza información transversal y temporal. Los resultados sugieren que la clasificación FIFA de las selecciones nacionales se puede utilizar para complementar nuestra comprensión del desarrollo multidimensional en aquellos países donde la disponibilidad de la información no es tan buena como los investigadores quisieran.