Novel investigation methods in Computational Social Dynamics and Complex Systems

In this thesis the evolution of the techno-social systems analysis methods will be reported, through the explanation of the various research experience directly faced. The first case presented is a research based on data mining of a dataset of words association named Human Brain Cloud: validation will be faced and, also through a non-trivial modeling, a better understanding of language properties will be presented. Then, a real complex system experiment will be introduced: the WideNoise experiment in the context of the EveryAware european project. The project and the experiment course will be illustrated and data analysis will be displayed. Then the Experimental Tribe platform for social computation will be introduced . It has been conceived to help researchers in the implementation of web experiments, and aims also to catalyze the cumulative growth of experimental methodologies and the standardization of tools cited above. In the last part, three other research experience which already took place on the Experimental Tribe platform will be discussed in detail, from the design of the experiment to the analysis of the results and, eventually, to the modeling of the systems involved. The experiments are: CityRace, about the measurement of human traffic-facing strategies; laPENSOcosì, aiming to unveil the political opinion structure; AirProbe, implemented again in the EveryAware project framework, which consisted in monitoring air quality opinion shift of a community informed about local air pollution. At the end, the evolution of the technosocial systems investigation methods shall emerge together with the opportunities and the threats offered by this new scientific path.

Probing the decay characteristics of the Pygmy Dipole Resonance in the semi-magic nucleus 140 Ce with gamma-gamma coincidence measurements

Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurde ein neuartiger Experimentaufbau -- das γ3 Experiment -- zur Messung von photoneninduzierten Kern-Dipolanregungen in stabilen Isotopen konzipiert und an der High Intensity γ-Ray Source (HIγS) an der Duke University installiert.rnDie hohe Energieauflösung und die hohe Nachweiseffizienz des Detektoraufbaus, welcher aus einer Kombination von LaBr Szintillatoren und hochreinen Germanium-Detektoren besteht, erlaubt erstmals die effiziente Messung von γ-γ-Koinzidenzen in Verbindung mit der Methode der Kernresonanzfluoreszenz.rnDiese Methode eröffnet den Zugang zum Zerfallsverhalten der angeregten Dipolzustände als zusätzlicher Observablen, die ein detaillierteres Verständnis der zugrunde liegenden Struktur dieser Anregungen ermöglicht.rnDer Detektoraufbau wurde bereits erfolgreich im Rahmen von zwei Experimentkampagnen in 2012 und 2013 für die Untersuchung von 13 verschiedenen Isotopen verwendet. Im Fokus dieser Arbeit stand die Analyse der Pygmy-Dipolresonanz (PDR) im Kern 140Ce im Energiebereich von 5,2 MeV bis 8,3 MeV basierend auf den mit dem γ3 Experimentaufbau gemessenen Daten. Insbesondere das Zerfallsverhalten der Zustände, die an der PDR beteiligt sind, wurde untersucht. Der Experimentaufbau, die Details der Analyse sowie die Resultate werden in der vorliegenden Arbeit präsentiert. Desweiteren erlaubt ein Vergleich der Ergebnisse mit theoretischen Rechnungen im quasi-particle phonon model (QPM) eine Interpretation des beobachteten Zerfallsverhaltens.

Die Entwicklung demokratischer Wertorientierungen in den mittel- und osteuropäischen EU-Mitgliedsländern : eine Kohortenanalyse auf Basis des European Social Survey

In dieser Masterarbeit wird die Frage untersucht, ob sich in den mittel- und osteuropäischen EU-Mitgliedsländern der Erweiterungsrunde von 2004 (Estland, Litauen, Polen, Slowakei, Slowenien, Ungarn, Tschechien) in der Befürwortung verschiedener normativer Demokratiemodelle Unterschiede zwischen der jüngsten und den älteren Generationen finden lassen. Diese demokratischen Wertorientierungen spielen für die Persistenz der noch jungen Demokratien eine entscheidende Rolle. Eine Inkongruenz des mehrheitlich favorisierten Demokratiemodells einerseits und der institutionellen Struktur andererseits kann zu Spannungen und Instabilität des politischen Systems führen. Theoretisch werden zwei Demokratiekonzeptionen unterschieden: Das Modell der liberalen Demokratie und das Modell der sozialistischen Demokratie. Dem Sozialisationsansatz folgend, sollte die jüngste Generation ein liberales Demokratiemodell eher und ein sozialistisches Demokratiemodell weniger befürworten als die älteren Generationen. In der empirischen Analyse auf Basis der Daten der sechsten Welle des European Social Survey von 2012 wird zunächst durch konfirmatorische Faktorenanalysen die konzeptuelle Trennung beider Modelle bestätigt. In der Regressionsanalyse wird der Fokus durch die Untersuchung verschiedener Kohorten gelegt, zusätzlich wird für situative Faktoren und mögliche Alterseffekte kontrolliert. Die Ergebnisse der Modellschätzungen zeichnen ein heterogenes Bild. In keinem der untersuchten Länder zeigt sich eine signifikant höhere Zustimmung zum liberalen Demokratiemodell durch die jüngste Generation, wie es der theoretischen Erwartung entsprechen würde. Stattdessen finden sich entweder keine signifikanten Unterschiede zwischen den Generationen oder sogar signifikant niedrigere Zustimmungswerte durch die jüngste Generation. Bei der Befürwortung eines sozialistischen Demokratiemodells entsprechen die Ergebnisse teilweise der theoretischen Erwartung: In einigen Ländern finden sich signifikant niedrigere Zustimmungswerte in der jüngsten Generation.

Haematopoietic stem cell transplantation: activity in Switzerland compared with surrounding European countries

Haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is a highly specialised procedure used to treat malignancies of the lymphohaematopoietic system as well as some acquired and inherited disorders of the blood. This analysis by the Swiss Blood Stem Cell Transplantation Group, based on data from 2008-2011, describes, treatment rates in Switzerland for specific indications and compares this with data from Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands, corrected for the size of the population. Differences in transplant rates, in rates for particular indications, and in the use of specific transplant technologies such as use of unrelated donors, use of cord blood or mismatched family donors are described. These data are put in correlation with donor availability from international registries and with number of transplant teams and number of procedures per team all corrected for population size.

Color variation in museum specimens of birds: effects of stress, pigmentation, and duration of storage

Animal coloration often serves as a signal to others that may communicate traits about the individual such as toxicity, status, or quality. Colorful ornaments in many animals are often honest signals of quality assessed by mates, and different colors may beproduced by different biochemical pigments. Investigations of the mechanisms responsible for variation in color expression among birds are best when including a geographically and temporally broad sample. In order to obtain such a sample, studies such as this often use museum specimens; however, in order for museum specimens toserve as an accurate replacement, they must accurately represent living birds, or we must understand the ways in which they differ. In this thesis, I investigated the link between feather corticosterone, a hormone secreted in response to stress, and carotenoid-basedcoloration in the Red-winged Blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus) in order to explore a mechanistic link between physiological state and color expression. Male Red-winged Blackbirds with lower feather corticosterone had significantly brighter red epaulets than birds with higher feather corticosterone, while I found no significant changes in red chroma. I also performed a methodological comparison of color change in museum specimens among different pigment types (carotenoid and psittacofulvin) and pigments in different locations in the body (feather and bill carotenoids) in order to quantify colorchange over time. Carotenoids and psittacofulvins showed significant reductions in red brightness and chroma over time in the collection, and carotenoid color changed significantly faster than psittacofulvin color. Both bill and feather carotenoids showed significant reductions in red brightness and red chroma over time, but change of both red chroma and red brightness occurred at a similar rate in feathers and bills. In order to use museum specimens of ecological research on bird coloration specimen age must be accounted for before the data can be used; however, once this is accomplished, museum- based color data may be used to draw conclusions about wild populations.

A Validity Study of the Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire

The short, portable mental status questionnaire (SPMSQ) developed by Pfeiffer has several advantages over previous short instruments designed to assess the intellectual functioning of older adults. It is based upon data from both institutionalized and community-dwelling elderly. Although Pfeiffer a four-group classification, he used to groups in his initial validation study: (a) intact/mildly impaired, and (b) moderately/severely impaired. The present study compared clinicians' ratings with those based upon the SPMSQ scores, and examined the validity of the four-group classification. The sample included 181 subjects from seven intermediate care facilities and nine home-care agencies. All were assessed by the OARS questionnaire, which includes the SPMSQ Three discriminant analyses were performed with three different criteria, for two-group, three-group, and four-group models. Results indicated that the two-group model (intact/mildly impaired and moderately/severely impaired) permitted significant discrimination. The four-group model, however, gave less distinct results. In particular, patients who were mildly intellectually impaired could not be clearly distinguished from those who were intact and from those who were moderately impaired. The three-group model (minimally, moderately, severely impaired) seemed to offer the best compromise between the gross dichotomy of the original two-model system and the less accurate four category system.

Extent and structure of health insurance expenditures for complementary and alternative medicine in Swiss primary care

BACKGROUND: The study is part of a nationwide evaluation of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) in primary care in Switzerland. The goal was to evaluate the extent and structure of basic health insurance expenditures for complementary and alternative medicine in Swiss primary care. METHODS: The study was designed as a cross-sectional evaluation of Swiss primary care providers and included 262 certified CAM physicians, 151 noncertified CAM physicians and 172 conventional physicians. The study was based on data from a mailed questionnaire and on reimbursement information obtained from health insurers. It was therefore purely observational, without interference into diagnostic and therapeutic procedures applied or prescribed by physicians. Main outcome measures included average reimbursed costs per patient, structured into consultation- and medication-related costs, and referred costs. RESULTS: Total average reimbursed cost per patient did not differ between CAM physicians and conventional practitioners, but considerable differences were observed in cost structure. The proportions of reimbursed costs for consultation time were 56% for certified CAM, 41% for noncertified CAM physicians and 40% for conventional physicians; medication costs--including expenditures for prescriptions and directly dispensed drugs--respectively accounted for 35%, 18%, and 51% of costs. CONCLUSION: The results indicate no significant difference for overall treatment cost per patient between CAM and COM primary care in Switzerland. However, CAM physicians treat lower numbers of patients and a more cost-favourable patient population than conventional physicians. Differences in cost structure reflect more patient-centred and individualized treatment modalities of CAM physicians.

Nonparametric Estimation of the Bivariate Recurrence Time Distribution

This paper considers statistical models in which two different types of events, such as the diagnosis of a disease and the remission of the disease, occur alternately over time and are observed subject to right censoring. We propose nonparametric estimators for the joint distribution of bivariate recurrence times and the marginal distribution of the first recurrence time. In general, the marginal distribution of the second recurrence time cannot be estimated due to an identifiability problem, but a conditional distribution of the second recurrence time can be estimated non-parametrically. In literature, statistical methods have been developed to estimate the joint distribution of bivariate recurrence times based on data of the first pair of censored bivariate recurrence times. These methods are efficient in the current model because recurrence times of higher orders are not used. Asymptotic properties of the estimators are established. Numerical studies demonstrate the estimator performs well with practical sample sizes. We apply the proposed method to a Denmark psychiatric case register data set for illustration of the methods and theory.

Impacts of environmental change on water resources in the Mount Kenya Region

Water resources are becoming increasingly scarce in the Mt. Kenya region. Land use and climate change may pose additional challenges to water management in the future. In order to assess the impacts of environmental change, the NRM3 Streamflow Model, a simple, semi-distributed, grid-based water balance model, is evaluated as a tool for discharge prediction in six meso-scale catchments on the western slopes of Mt. Kenya, and used to analyse the impact of land use and climate change scenarios on water resources.

Finite element 3D reconstruction of the pulmonary acinus imaged by synchrotron X-ray tomography

The alveolated structure of the pulmonary acinus plays a vital role in gas exchange function. Three-dimensional (3D) analysis of the parenchymal region is fundamental to understanding this structure-function relationship, but only a limited number of attempts have been conducted in the past because of technical limitations. In this study, we developed a new image processing methodology based on finite element (FE) analysis for accurate 3D structural reconstruction of the gas exchange regions of the lung. Stereologically well characterized rat lung samples (Pediatr Res 53: 72-80, 2003) were imaged using high-resolution synchrotron radiation-based X-ray tomographic microscopy. A stack of 1,024 images (each slice: 1024 x 1024 pixels) with resolution of 1.4 mum(3) per voxel were generated. For the development of FE algorithm, regions of interest (ROI), containing approximately 7.5 million voxels, were further extracted as a working subunit. 3D FEs were created overlaying the voxel map using a grid-based hexahedral algorithm. A proper threshold value for appropriate segmentation was iteratively determined to match the calculated volume density of tissue to the stereologically determined value (Pediatr Res 53: 72-80, 2003). The resulting 3D FEs are ready to be used for 3D structural analysis as well as for subsequent FE computational analyses like fluid dynamics and skeletonization.

EVALUATION OF INTELLIGENT COMPACTION CONTROL IN THE M-189 RECONSTRUCTION PROJECT AT IRON RIVER, MICHIGAN

This research evaluated an Intelligent Compaction (IC) unit on the M-189 highway reconstruction project at Iron River, Michigan. The results from the IC unit were compared to several traditional compaction measurement devices including Nuclear Density Gauge (NDG), Geogauge, Light Weight Deflectometer (LWD), Dynamic Cone Penetrometer (DCP), and Modified Clegg Hammer (MCH). The research collected point measurements data on a test section in which 30 test locations on the final Class II sand base layer and the 22A gravel layer. These point measurements were compared with the IC measurements (ICMVs) on a point-to-point basis through a linear regression analysis. Poor correlations were obtained among different measurements points using simple regression analysis. When comparing the ICMV to the compaction measurements points. Factors attributing to the weak correlation include soil heterogeneity, variation in IC roller operation parameters, in-place moisture content, the narrow range of the compaction devices measurement ranges and support conditions of the support layers. After incorporating some of the affecting factors into a multiple regression analysis, the strength of correlation significantly improved, especially on the stiffer gravel layer. Measurements were also studied from an overall distribution perspective in terms of average, measurement range, standard deviation, and coefficient of variance. Based on data analysis, on-site project observation and literature review, conclusions were made on how IC performed in regards to compaction control on the M-189 reconstruction project.

Endangering of Businesses by the German Inheritance Tax? – An Empirical Analysis

This contribution addresses the substantial tax privilege for businesses introduced by the German Inheritance Tax Act 2009. Advocates of the vast or even entire tax exemption for businesses stress the potential damage of the inheritance tax on businesses, as those often lack liquidity to meet tax liability. This submission tackles this issue empirically based on data of the German Inheritance Tax Statistics and the SOEP. The results indicate that former German inheritance tax law has not endangered transferred businesses. Hence, there is no need for the tremendous tax privilege for businesses in current German inheritance tax law. An alternative flat inheritance tax without tax privileges, which meets revenue neutrality per tax class according to current tax law, provokes in some cases relative high tax loads which might trouble businesses.

Central European plant species from more productive habitats are more invasive at a global scale

Aim: Accumulating evidence indicates that species may be pre-adapted for invasion success in new ranges. In the light of increasing global nutrient accumulation, an important candidate pre-adaptation for invasiveness is the ability to grow in nutrient-rich habitats. Therefore we tested whether globally invasive species originating from Central Europe have come from more productive rather than less productive habitats. A further important candidate pre-adaptation for invasiveness is large niche width. Therefore, we also tested whether species able to grow across habitats with a wider range of productivity are more invasive. Location: Global with respect to invasiveness, and Central European with respect to origin of study species. Methods  We examined whether average habitat productivity and its width across habitats are significant predictors of the success of Central European species as aliens and as weeds elsewhere in the world based on data in the Global Compendium of Weeds. The two habitat productivity measures were derived from nutrient indicator values (after Ellenberg) of accompanying species present in vegetation records of the comprehensive Czech National Phytosociological Database. In the analyses, we accounted for phylogenetic relatedness among species and for size of the native distribution ranges. Results: Species from more productive habitats and with a wider native habitat-productivity niche in Central Europe have higher alien success elsewhere in the world. Weediness of species increased with mean habitat productivity. Niche width was also an important determinant of weediness for species with their main occurrence in nutrient-poor habitats, but not for those from nutrient-rich habitats. Main conclusions: Our results indicate that Central European plant species from productive habitats and those species from nutrient-poor habitat with wide productivity-niche are pre-adapted to become invasive. These results suggest that the world-wide invasion success of many Central European species is likely to have been promoted by the global increase of resource-rich habitats.

Alterations of white matter integrity related to the season of birth in schizophrenia: a DTI study

In schizophrenia there is a consistent epidemiological finding of a birth excess in winter and spring. Season of birth is thought to act as a proxy indicator for harmful environmental factors during foetal maturation. There is evidence that prenatal exposure to harmful environmental factors may trigger pathologic processes in the neurodevelopment, which subsequently increase the risk of schizophrenia. Since brain white matter alterations have repeatedly been found in schizophrenia, the objective of this study was to investigate whether white matter integrity was related to the season of birth in patients with schizophrenia. Thirty-four patients with schizophrenia and 33 healthy controls underwent diffusion tensor imaging. Differences in the fractional anisotropy maps of schizophrenia patients and healthy controls born in different seasons were analysed with tract-based spatial statistics. A significant main effect of season of birth and an interaction of group and season of birth showed that patients born in summer had significantly lower fractional anisotropy in widespread white matter regions than those born in the remainder of the year. Additionally, later age of schizophrenia onset was found in patients born in winter months. The current findings indicate a relationship of season of birth and white matter alterations in schizophrenia and consequently support the neurodevelopmental hypothesis of early pathological mechanisms in schizophrenia.