Covariance among North Sea ecosystem state indicators during the past 50 years - contrasts between coastal and open waters

Regime shift and principal component analysis of a spatially disaggregated database capturing time-series of climatic, nutrient and plankton variables in the North Sea revealed considerable covariance between groups of ecosystem indicators. Plankton and climate time-series span the period 1958–2003, those of nutrients start in 1980. In both regions, the period from 1989 to 2001 identified in principal component 1 had warmer surface waters, higher Atlantic inflow and stronger winds, than the periods before or after. However, it was preceded by a regime shift in both open (PC2) and coastal (PC3) waters during 1977 towards more hours of sunlight and higher water temperature, which lasted until 1997. The relative influence of nutrient availability and climatic forcing differed between open and coastal North Sea regions. Inter-annual variability in phytoplankton dynamics of the open North Sea was primarily regulated by climatic forcing, specifically by sea surface temperature, Atlantic inflow and co-varying wind stress and NAO. Coastal phytoplankton variability, however, was regulated by insolation and sea surface temperature, as well as Si availability, but not by N or P. Regime shifts in principal components of hydrographic and climatic variables (explaining 55 and 61% of the variance in coastal and open water variables) were detected using Rodionov's sequential t-test. These shifts in hydroclimatic variables which occurred around 1977, 1989, 1997 and 2001, were synchronized in open and coastal waters, and were tracked by open water chlorophyll and copepods, but not by coastal plankton. North–central–south or open-coastal spatial breakdowns of the North Sea explained similar amounts of variability in most ecosystem indicators with the exception of diatom abundance and chlorophyll concentration, which were clearly better explained using the open-coastal configuration.

Comparative analysis European wide marine ecosystem shifts - a large scale approach for developing the basis for ecosystem-based management

Abrupt and rapid ecosystem shifts (where major reorganizations of food-web and community structures occur), commonly termed regime shifts, are changes between contrasting and persisting states of ecosystem structure and function. These shifts have been increasingly reported for exploited marine ecosystems around the world from the North Pacific to the North Atlantic. Understanding the drivers and mechanisms leading to marine ecosystem shifts is crucial in developing adaptive management strategies to achieve sustainable exploitation of marine ecosystems. An international workshop on a comparative approach to analysing these marine ecosystem shifts was held at Hamburg University, Institute for Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science, Germany on 1-3 November 2010. Twenty-seven scientists from 14 countries attended the meeting, representing specialists from seven marine regions, including the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, the Barents Sea, the Black Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, the Bay of Biscay and the Scotian Shelf off the Canadian East coast. The goal of the workshop was to conduct the first large-scale comparison of marine ecosystem regime shifts across multiple regional areas, in order to support the development of ecosystem-based management strategies.

Region-wide changes in marine ecosystem dynamics: state-space models to distinguish trends from step changes

Regime shifts are sudden changes in ecosystem structure that can be detected across several ecosystem components. The concept that regime shifts are common in marine ecosystems has gained popularity in recent years. Many studies have searched for the step-like changes in ecosystem state expected under a simple interpretation of this idea. However, other kinds of change, such as pervasive trends, have often been ignored. We assembled over 300 ecological time series from seven UK marine regions, covering two to three decades. We developed state-space models for the first principal component of the time series in each region, a common measure of ecosystem state. Our models allowed both trends and step changes, possibly in combination. We found trends in three of seven regions and step changes in two of seven regions. Gradual and sudden changes are therefore important trajectories to consider in marine ecosystems.

Plankton indicators and ocean observing systems: support to the marine ecosystem state assessment

Ecological indicators are used extensively as tools to manage environmental resources. In the oceans, indicators of plankton can be measured using a variety of observing systems including: mooring stations, ships, autonomous floats and ocean colour remote sensing. Given the broad range of temporal and spatial sampling resolutions of these different observing systems, as well as discrepancies in measurements obtained from different sensors, the estimation and interpretation of plankton indicators can present significant challenges. To provide support to the assessment of the state of the marine ecosystem, we propose a suite of plankton indicators and subsequently classify them in an ecological framework that characterizes key attributes of the ecosystem. We present two case studies dealing with plankton indicators of biomass, size structure and phenology, estimated using the most spatially extensive and longest in situ and remote-sensing observations. Discussion of these studies illustrates how some of the challenges in estimating and interpreting plankton indicators may be addressed by using for example relative measurement thresholds, interpolation procedures and delineation of biogeochemical provinces. We demonstrate that one of the benefits attained, when analyzing a suite of plankton indicators classified in an ecological framework, is the elucidation of non-trivial changes in composition, structure and functioning of the marine ecosystem.

Quantifying ecosystem-level consequences of ocean acidification and warming by scaling up individual level responses of a predator snail and its trophic interactions

Understanding long‐term, ecosystem‐level impacts of climate change is challenging because experimental research frequently focuses on short‐term, individual‐level impacts in isolation. We address this shortcoming first through an interdisciplinary ensemble of novel experimental techniques to investigate the impacts of 14‐month exposure to ocean acidification and warming (OAW) on the physiology, activity, predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predation of an important marine gastropod (Nucella lapillus). We simultaneously estimated the potential impacts of these global drivers on N. lapillus population dynamics and dispersal parameters. We then used these data to parameterize a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model, to investigate the consequences of OAW on the distribution of the species in the wider NE Atlantic region by 2100. The model accounts also for changes in the distribution of resources, suitable habitat and environment simulated by finely resolved biogeochemical models, under three IPCC global emissions scenarios. The experiments showed that temperature had the greatest impact on individual‐level responses, while acidification had a similarly important role in the mediation of predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predators. Changes in Nucella predatory behaviour appeared to serve as a strategy to mitigate individual‐level impacts of acidification, but the development of this response may be limited in the presence of predators. The model projected significant large‐scale changes in the distribution of Nucella by the year 2100 that were exacerbated by rising greenhouse gas emissions. These changes were spatially heterogeneous, as the degree of impact of OAW on the combination of responses considered by the model varied depending on local‐environmental conditions and resource availability. Such changes in macro‐scale distributions cannot be predicted by investigating individual‐level impacts in isolation, or by considering climate stressors separately. Scaling up the results of experimental climate change research requires approaches that account for long‐term, multiscale responses to multiple stressors, in an ecosystem context.

Incorporating ecosystem services in marine planning: The role of valuation

This paper scrutinises the use of ecosystem service valuation for marine planning. Lessons are drawn from the development and use of environmental valuation and cost-benefit analysis for policy-making in the US and the UK. Current approaches to marine planning in both countries are presented and the role that ecosystem service valuation could play in this context is outlined. This includes highlighting the steps in the marine planning process where valuation can inform marine planning and policy-making as well as a discussion of methodological challenges to ecosystem service valuation techniques in the context of marine planning. Recommendations to overcome existing barriers are offered based on the synergies and the thinking in the two countries regarding the application of ecosystem service valuation to marine planning.

Response to Comments on "Impacts of Biodiversity Loss on Ocean Ecosystem Services"

We show that globally declining fisheries catch trends cannot be explained by random processes and are consistent with declining stock abundance trends. Future projections are inherently uncertain but may provide a benchmark against which to assess the effectiveness of conservation measures. Marine reserves and fisheries closures are among those measures and can be equally effective in tropical and temperate areas—but must be combined with catch-, effort-, and gear restrictions to meet global conservation objectives.

Tropical Marginal Seas: Priority Regions for Managing Marine Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function

Tropical marginal seas (TMSs) are natural subregions of tropical oceans containing biodiverse ecosystems with conspicuous, valued, and vulnerable biodiversity assets. They are focal points for global marine conservation because they occur in regions where human populations are rapidly expanding. Our review of 11 TMSs focuses on three key ecosystems—coral reefs and emergent atolls, deep benthic systems, and pelagic biomes—and synthesizes, illustrates, and contrasts knowledge of biodiversity, ecosystem function, interaction between adjacent habitats, and anthropogenic pressures. TMSs vary in the extent that they have been subject to human influence—from the nearly pristine Coral Sea to the heavily exploited South China and Caribbean Seas—but we predict that they will all be similarly complex to manage because most span multiple national jurisdictions. We conclude that developing a structured process to identify ecologically and biologically significant areas that uses a set of globally agreed criteria is a tractable first step toward effective multinational and transboundary ecosystem management of TMSs.

What can ecosystem models tell us about the risk of eutrophication in the North Sea?

Eutrophication is a process resulting from an increase in anthropogenic nutrient inputs from rivers and other sources, the consequences of which can include enhanced algal biomass, changes in plankton community composition and oxygen depletion near the seabed. Within the context of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, indicators (and associated threshold) have been identified to assess the eutrophication status of an ecosystem. Large databases of observations (in situ) are required to properly assess the eutrophication status. Marine hydrodynamic/ecosystem models provide continuous fields of a wide range of ecosystem characteristics. Using such models in this context could help to overcome the lack of in situ data, and provide a powerful tool for ecosystem-based management and policy makers. Here we demonstrate a methodology that uses a combination of model outputs and in situ data to assess the risk of eutrophication in the coastal domain of the North Sea. The risk of eutrophication is computed for the past and present time as well as for different future scenarios. This allows us to assess both the current risk and its sensitivity to anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Model sensitivity studies suggest that the coastal waters of the North Sea may be more sensitive to anthropogenic rivers loads than climate change in the near future (to 2040).

Scaling up experimental ocean acidification and warming research: from individuals to the ecosystem

Understanding long-term, ecosystem-level impacts of climate change is challenging because experimental research frequently focuses on short-term, individual-level impacts in isolation. We address this shortcoming first through an inter-disciplinary ensemble of novel experimental techniques to investigate the impacts of 14-month exposure to ocean acidification and warming (OAW) on the physiology, activity, predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predation of an important marine gastropod (Nucella lapillus). We simultaneously estimated the potential impacts of these global drivers on N. lapillus population dynamics and dispersal parameters. We then used these data to parameterise a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model, to investigate the consequences of OAW on the distribution of the species in the wider NE Atlantic region by 2100. The model accounts also for changes in the distribution of resources, suitable habitat and environment simulated by finely resolved biogeochemical models, under three IPCC global emissions scenarios. The experiments showed that temperature had the greatest impact on individual level responses, while acidification has a similarly important role in the mediation of predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predators. Changes in Nucella predatory behaviour appeared to serve as a strategy to mitigate individual level impacts of acidification, but the development of this response may be limited in the presence of predators. The model projected significant large-scale changes in the distribution of Nucella by the year 2100 that were exacerbated by rising greenhouse gas emissions. These changes were spatially heterogeneous, as the degree of impact of OAW on the combination of responses considered by the model varied depending on local environmental conditions and resource availability. Such changes in macro-scale distributions cannot be predicted by investigating individual level impacts in isolation, or by considering climate stressors separately. Scaling up the results of experimental climate change research requires approaches that account for long-term, multi-scale responses to multiple stressors, in an ecosystem context.

Assessing the potential of autonomous submarine gliders for ecosystem monitoring across multiple trophic levels (plankton to cetaceans) in shallow shelf seas

A combination of scientific, economic, technological and policy drivers is behind a recent upsurge in the use of marine autonomous systems (and accompanying miniaturized sensors) for environmental mapping and monitoring. Increased spatial–temporal resolution and coverage of data, at reduced cost, is particularly vital for effective spatial management of highly dynamic and heterogeneous shelf environments. This proof-of-concept study involves integration of a novel combination of sensors onto buoyancy-driven submarine gliders, in order to assess their suitability for ecosystem monitoring in shelf waters at a variety of trophic levels. Two shallow-water Slocum gliders were equipped with CTD and fluorometer to measure physical properties and chlorophyll, respectively. One glider was also equipped with a single-frequency echosounder to collect information on zooplankton and fish distribution. The other glider carried a Passive Acoustic Monitoring system to detect and record cetacean vocalizations, and a passive sampler to detect chemical contaminants in the water column. The two gliders were deployed together off southwest UK in autumn 2013, and targeted a known tidal-mixing front west of the Isles of Scilly. The gliders’ mission took about 40 days, with each glider travelling distances of >1000 km and undertaking >2500 dives to depths of up to 100 m. Controlling glider flight and alignment of the two glider trajectories proved to be particularly challenging due to strong tidal flows. However, the gliders continued to collect data in poor weather when an accompanying research vessel was unable to operate. In addition, all glider sensors generated useful data, with particularly interesting initial results relating to subsurface chlorophyll maxima and numerous fish/cetacean detections within the water column. The broader implications of this study for marine ecosystem monitoring with submarine gliders are discussed.