Predicting the future effectiveness of protected areas for bird conservation in Mediterranean ecosystems under climate change and novel fire regime scenarios

AimGlobal environmental changes challenge traditional conservation approaches based on the selection of static protected areas due to their limited ability to deal with the dynamic nature of driving forces relevant to biodiversity. The Natura 2000 network (N2000) constitutes a major milestone in biodiversity conservation in Europe, but the degree to which this static network will be able to reach its long-term conservation objectives raises concern. We assessed the changes in the effectiveness of N2000 in a Mediterranean ecosystem between 2000 and 2050 under different combinations of climate and land cover change scenarios. LocationCatalonia, Spain. MethodsPotential distribution changes of several terrestrial bird species of conservation interest included in the European Union's Birds Directive were predicted within an ensemble-forecasting framework that hierarchically integrated climate change and land cover change scenarios. Land cover changes were simulated using a spatially explicit fire-succession model that integrates fire management strategies and vegetation encroachment after the abandonment of cultivated areas as the main drivers of landscape dynamics in Mediterranean ecosystems. ResultsOur results suggest that the amount of suitable habitats for the target species will strongly decrease both inside and outside N2000. However, the effectiveness of N2000 is expected to increase in the next decades because the amount of suitable habitats is predicted to decrease less inside than outside this network. Main conclusionsSuch predictions shed light on the key role that the current N2000may play in the near future and emphasize the need for an integrative conservation perspective wherein agricultural, forest and fire management policies should be considered to effectively preserve key habitats for threatened birds in fire-prone, highly dynamic Mediterranean ecosystems. Results also show the importance of considering landscape dynamics and the synergies between different driving forces when assessing the long-term effectiveness of protected areas for biodiversity conservation.

Age-Related Tooth Wear Differs between Forest and Savanna Primates

Tooth wear in primates is caused by aging and ecological factors. However, comparative data that would allow us to delineate the contribution of each of these factors are lacking. Here, we contrast age-dependent molar tooth wear by scoring percent of dentine exposure (PDE) in two wild African primate populations from Gabonese forest and Kenyan savanna habitats. We found that forest-dwelling mandrills exhibited significantly higher PDE with age than savanna yellow baboons. Mandrills mainly feed on large tough food items, such as hard-shell fruits, and inhabit an ecosystem with a high presence of mineral quartz. By contrast, baboons consume large amounts of exogenous grit that adheres to underground storage organs but the proportion of quartz in the soils where baboons live is low. Our results support the hypothesis that not only age but also physical food properties and soil composition, particularly quartz richness, are factors that significantly impact tooth wear. We further propose that the accelerated dental wear in mandrills resulting in flatter molars with old age may represent an adaptation to process hard food items present in their environment.

Populations of breeding birds in Byers Peninsula, Livingston Island, South Shetland Islands

Data about breeding populations of birds in the Antarctica are rare and fragmented. Thus, information about the status of the breeding populations of Antarctic birds is crucial given the current scenario of climate change, which is particularly acute in Antarctica. This paper presents new information about the populations of the Antarctic tern Sterna vittata, the kelp gull Larus dominicanus, the southern giant petrel Macronectes giganteus, the Antarctic skua Catharacta antarctica lonnbergi, the chinstrap penguin Pygoscelis antarctica and the gentoo penguin Pygoscelis papua on Byers Peninsula (Livingston Island, South Shetland Islands). We used line transects counts to estimate both densities and numbers of nests of the different species. We estimate that there are 398.96 birds km-2 of southern giant petrels (2793 individuals), 62.4 birds km-2 of Antarctic tern (3746 individuals) and 269.1 birds km-2 of kelp gull (1884 individuals). Furthermore, we found 15 nests of Antarctic skua in 25 km2, from which we can estimate that 6091 birds must breed on Byers Peninsula. We also censused two colonies of gentoo penguins (3000 and 1200 pairs) and 50 pairs of chinstrap. Compared to previous estimates, gentoo penguins seem to have increased whereas chinstrap penguin have decreased. Finally, the populations of Antarctic tern, southern giant petrel and kelp gull have stabilized or slightly increased.

Climate Change and the Cost of Carbon Sequestration: The Case of Forest Management

The Kyoto protocol allows Annex I countries to deduct carbon sequestered by land use, land-use change and forestry from their national carbon emissions. Thornley and Cannell (2000) demonstrated that the objectives of maximizing timber and carbon sequestration are not complementary. Based on this finding, this paper determines the optimal selective management regime taking into account the underlying biophysical and economic processes. The results show that the net benefits of carbon storage only compensate the decrease in net benefits of timber production once the carbon price has exceeded a certain threshold value. The sequestration costs are significantly lower than previous estimates