954 resultados para forecast errors
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We discuss quantum error correction for errors that occur at random times as described by, a conditional Poisson process. We shoo, how a class of such errors, detected spontaneous emission, can be corrected by continuous closed loop, feedback.
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Medication errors are a leading cause of unintended harm to patients in Australia and internationally. Research in this area has paid relatively little attention to the interactions between organisational factors and violations of procedures in producing errors, although violations have been found to increase the likelihood of these errors. This study investigated the role of organisational factors in contributing to violations by nurses when administering medications. Data were collected using a self-report questionnaire completed by 506 nurses working in either rural or remote areas in Queensland, Australia. This instrument was used to develop a path model wherein organisational variables predicted 21% of the variance in self-reported violations. Expectations of medical officers mediated the relationship between working conditions of nursing staff and violation behaviour.
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The divided visual field technique was used to investigate the pattern of brain asymmetry in the perception of positive/approach and negative/withdrawal facial expressions. A total of 80 undergraduate students (65 female, 15 male) were distributed in five experimental groups in order to investigate separately the perception of expressions of happiness, surprise, fear, sadness, and the neutral face. In each trial a target and a distractor expression were presented simultaneously in a computer screen for 150 ms and participants had to determine the side (left or right) on which the target expression was presented. Results indicated that expressions of happiness and fear were identified faster when presented in the left visual field, suggesting an advantage of the right hemisphere in the perception of these expressions. Fewer judgement errors and faster reaction times were also observed for the matching condition in which emotional faces were presented in the left visual field and neutral faces in the right visual field. Other results indicated that positive expressions (happiness and surprise) were perceived faster and more accurately than negative ones (sadness and fear). Main results tend to support the right hemisphere hypothesis, which predicts a better performance of the right hemisphere to perceive emotions, as opposed to the approach-withdrawal hypothesis.
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Most previous investigations on tide-induced watertable fluctuations in coastal aquifers have been based on one-dimensional models that describe the processes in the cross-shore direction alone, assuming negligible along-shore variability. A recent study proposed a two-dimensional approximation for tide-induced watertable fluctuations that took into account coastline variations. Here, we further develop this approximation in two ways, by extending the approximation to second order and by taking into account capillary effects. Our results demonstrate that both effects can markedly influence watertable fluctuations. In particular, with the first-order approximation, the local damping rate of the tidal signal could be subject to sizable errors.
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Major requirements for performance of liver biopsy (LB) are the benefits for the patient and the impossibility of having the same information by less invasive procedures. In the last two decades physicians have faced the difficult task of convincing a patient positive for hepatitis C, with minimal clinical or laboratory alterations to be submitted to LB in order to evaluate the status of the disease for therapeutic management. The characteristics of the needle used for percutaneous LB interferes with the accuracy of diagnosis. In chronic hepatitis C (CHC), validity is achieved with liver fragments about 25mm in length containing more than 10 portal tracts. Morbidity due to LB is mainly related to bleeding but death is very rare. Severe complications are also uncommon, increasing with number of passes and decreasing with experience of operator and ultrasound guidance. Although CHC is a diffuse disease, the various areas of the liver may not be equally affected and sampling errors are possible. Another potential limitation of LB is the discordance between pathologists in its interpretation. To replace LB, many panels of surrogate markers have been described, aiming to identify extent of fibrosis and inflammation. All of them have used LB as their ""gold standard"". Liver biopsy continues to be the most reliable method to evaluate the possibility of therapy for CHC. Universal treatment of all patients with diagnosis of CHC would be ideal. But, there are mainly three drawbacks. Overall efficacy is as low as 50%, side effects are common and may be severe and treatment is prolonged and expensive. The acceptability of the biopsy by the patient is highly dependent on the physician`s conviction of its usefulness.
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Purpose: To study the oculometric parameters of hyperopia in children with esotropic amblyopia, comparing amblyopic eyes with fellow eyes. Methods: Thirty-seven patients (5-8 years old) with bilateral hyperopia and esotropic amblyopia underwent a comprehensive ophthalmic examination, including cycloplegic refraction, keratometry and A-scan ultrasonography. Anterior chamber depth, lens thickness, vitreous chamber depth and total axial length were recorded. The refractive power of the crystalline lens was calculated using Bennett`s equations. Paired Student`s t-tests were used to compare ocular biometric measurements between amblyopic eyes and their fellow eyes. The associations of biometric parameters with refractive errors were assessed using Pearson correlation coefficients and linear regression. Multivariable models including axial length, corneal power and lens power were also constructed. Results: Amblyopic eyes were found to have significantly more hyperopic refraction, less corneal power, greater lens power, shorter vitreous chamber depth and shorter axial length, despite similar anterior chamber depth and lens thickness. The strongest correlation with refractive error was observed for the axial length/corneal radius ratio (r(36) = -0.92, p < 0.001 for amblyopic and r(36) = 0.87, p < 0.001 for fellow eyes). Axial length accounted for 39.2% (R(2)) of the refractive error variance in amblyopic eyes and 35.5% in fellow eyes. Adding corneal power to the model increased R(2) to 85.7% and 79.6%, respectively. A statistically significant correlation was found between axial length and corneal power, indicating decreasing corneal power with increasing axial length, and they were similar for amblyopic eyes (r(36) = 0.53,p < 0.001) and fellow eyes (r(36) = -0.57, p < 0.001). A statistically significant correlation was also found between axial length and lens power, indicating decreasing lens power with increasing axial length (r(36) = -0.72, p < 0.001 for amblyopic eyes and r(36) = -0.69, p < 0.001 for fellow eyes). Conclusions: We observed that the correlation among the major oculometric parameters and their individual contribution to hyperopia in esotropic children were similar in amblyopic and non-amblyopic eyes. This finding suggests that the counterbalancing effect of greater corneal and lens power associated with shorter axial length is similar in both eyes of patients with esotropic amblyopia.
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OBJECTIVE. Toxic leukoencephalopathy may present acutely or subacutely with symmetrically reduced diffusion in the periventricular and supraventricular white matter, hereafter referred to as periventricular white matter. This entity may reverse both on imaging and clinically. However, a gathering together of the heterogeneous causes of this disorder as seen on MRI with diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) and an analysis of their likelihood to reverse has not yet been performed. Our goals were to gather causes of acute or subacute toxic leukoencephalopathy that can present with reduced diffusion of periventricular white matter in order to promote recognition of this entity, to evaluate whether DWI with apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values can predict the extent of chronic FLAIR abnormality ( imaging reversibility), and to evaluate whether DWI can predict the clinical outcome ( clinical reversibility). MATERIALS AND METHODS. Two neuroradiologists retrospectively reviewed the MRI examinations of 39 patients with acute symptoms and reduced diffusion of periventricular white matter. The reviewers then scored the extent of abnormality on DWI and FLAIR. ADC ratios of affected white matter versus the unaffected periventricular white matter were obtained. Each patient`s clinical records were reviewed to determine the cause and clinical outcome. Histology findings were available in three patients. Correlations were calculated between the initial MRI markers and both the clinical course and the follow-up extent on FLAIR using Spearman`s correlation coefficient. RESULTS. Of the initial 39 patients, seven were excluded because of a nontoxic cause (hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy [HIE] or congenital genetic disorders) or because of technical errors. In the remaining 32 patients, no correlation was noted between any of the initial MRI markers (percentage of ADC reduction, DWI extent, or FLAIR extent) with the clinical outcome. Three patients had histologic correlation. However, moderate correlation was seen between the extent of abnormality on initial FLAIR and the extent on follow-up FLAIR (r = 0.441, p = 0.047). Of the 13 patients who underwent repeat MRI at 21 days or longer, the reduced diffusion resolved in all but one. Significant differences were noted between ADC values in affected white matter versus unaffected periventricular white matter on initial (p < 0.0001) but not on follow-up MRI (p = 0.13), and in affected white matter on initial versus follow-up (p = 0.0014) in those individuals who underwent repeat imaging on the same magnet (n = 9), confirming resolution of the DWI abnormalities. CONCLUSION. Acute toxic leukoencephalopathy with reduced diffusion may be clinically reversible and radiologically reversible on DWI, and may also be reversible, but to a lesser degree, on FLAIR MRI. None of the imaging markers measured in this study appears to correlate with clinical outcome, which underscores the necessity for prompt recognition of this entity. Alerting the clinician to this potentially reversible syndrome can facilitate treatment and removal of the offending agent in the early stages.
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The technical reliability (i.e., interinstrument and interoperator reliability) of three SEAC-swept frequency bioimpedance monitors was assessed for both errors of measurement and associated analyses. In addition, intraoperator and intrainstrument variability was evaluated for repeat measures over a 4-hour period. The measured impedance values from a range of resistance-capacitance circuits were accurate to within 3% of theoretical values over a range of 50-800 ohms. Similarly, phase was measured over the range 1 degrees-19 degrees with a maximum deviation of 1.3 degrees from the theoretical value. The extrapolated impedance at zero frequency was equally well determined (+/-3%). However, the accuracy of the extrapolated value at infinite frequency was decreased, particularly at impedances below 50 ohms (approaching the lower limit of the measurement range of the instrument). The interinstrument/operator variation for whole body measurements were recorded on human volunteers with biases of less than +/-1% for measured impedance values and less than 3% for phase. The variation in the extrapolated values of impedance at zero and infinite frequencies included variations due to operator choice of the analysis parameters but was still less than +/-0.5%. (C) 1997 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
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Xanthine phosphoribosyltransferase (XPRT; EC 2.4.2.22) from Escherichia coil is a tetrameric enzyme having 152 residues per subunit. XPRT catalyzes the transfer of the phosphoribosyl group from 5-phospho-alpha-D-ribosyl l-pyrophosphate (PRib-PP) to the 6-oxopurine bases guanine, xanthine, and hypoxanthine to form GMP, XMP, and IMP, respectively. Crystals grown in the absence of substrate or product were used to determine the structure of XPRT at a resolution of 1.8 Angstrom by multiple isomorphous replacement. The core structure of XPRT includes a five-stranded parallel B-sheet surrounded by three or-helices, which is similar to that observed in other known phosphoribosyltransferase (PRTase) structures. The XPRT structure also has several interesting features. A glutamine residue in the purine binding site may be responsible for the altered 6-oxopurine base specificity seen in this enzyme compared to other 6-oxopurine PRTases. Also, we observe both a magnesium ion and a sulfate ion bound at the PRib-PP binding site of XPRT. The sulfate ion interacts with Arg-37 which has a cis-peptide conformation, and the magnesium ion interacts with Asp-89, a highly conserved acidic residue in the PRib-PP binding site motif. The XPRT structure also incorporates a feature which has not been observed in other PRTase structures. The C-terminal 12 residues of XPRT adopt an unusual extended conformation and make interactions with a neighboring subunit. The very last residue, Arg-152, could form part of the active site of a symmetry-related subunit in the XPRT tetramer.
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A robust semi-implicit central partial difference algorithm for the numerical solution of coupled stochastic parabolic partial differential equations (PDEs) is described. This can be used for calculating correlation functions of systems of interacting stochastic fields. Such field equations can arise in the description of Hamiltonian and open systems in the physics of nonlinear processes, and may include multiplicative noise sources. The algorithm can be used for studying the properties of nonlinear quantum or classical field theories. The general approach is outlined and applied to a specific example, namely the quantum statistical fluctuations of ultra-short optical pulses in chi((2)) parametric waveguides. This example uses a non-diagonal coherent state representation, and correctly predicts the sub-shot noise level spectral fluctuations observed in homodyne detection measurements. It is expected that the methods used wilt be applicable for higher-order correlation functions and other physical problems as well. A stochastic differencing technique for reducing sampling errors is also introduced. This involves solving nonlinear stochastic parabolic PDEs in combination with a reference process, which uses the Wigner representation in the example presented here. A computer implementation on MIMD parallel architectures is discussed. (C) 1997 Academic Press.
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Speech disorder in monolingual Cantonese- or English-speaking children has been well described in the literature. There appear to be no reports, however, that describe speech-disordered children who have been exposed to both languages. Here we report on the error patterns of two preschool speech-disordered children who were learning two languages. Both children's first language was Cantonese, but they were also exposed to English through the media and child care. Their disorders were of unknown aetiology. The following questions were asked of the data: (a) Do bilingual children, suspected of having speech problems, make errors in Cantonese and English that reflect delay or disorder when compared with normative data on monolingual speech development in each language? (b) How does the children's speech differ from other bilingual children from the same language learning background? (c) Are the children's speech difficulties apparent in both languages? (d) Is the pattern of errors the same in both languages or do language-specific processes operate? The results bear on theories of acquisition, disorder and bilingualism; they also have clinical implications for speech-language pathologists whose caseloads include bilingual preschool children.
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Radiation dose calculations in nuclear medicine depend on quantification of activity via planar and/or tomographic imaging methods. However, both methods have inherent limitations, and the accuracy of activity estimates varies with object size, background levels, and other variables. The goal of this study was to evaluate the limitations of quantitative imaging with planar and single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) approaches, with a focus on activity quantification for use in calculating absorbed dose estimates for normal organs and tumors. To do this we studied a series of phantoms of varying complexity of geometry, with three radionuclides whose decay schemes varied from simple to complex. Four aqueous concentrations of (99m)Tc, (131)I, and (111)In (74, 185, 370, and 740 kBq mL(-1)) were placed in spheres of four different sizes in a water-filled phantom, with three different levels of activity in the surrounding water. Planar and SPECT images of the phantoms were obtained on a modern SPECT/computed tomography (CT) system. These radionuclides and concentration/background studies were repeated using a cardiac phantom and a modified torso phantom with liver and ""tumor"" regions containing the radionuclide concentrations and with the same varying background levels. Planar quantification was performed using the geometric mean approach, with attenuation correction (AC), and with and without scatter corrections (SC and NSC). SPECT images were reconstructed using attenuation maps (AM) for AC; scatter windows were used to perform SC during image reconstruction. For spherical sources with corrected data, good accuracy was observed (generally within +/- 10% of known values) for the largest sphere (11.5 mL) and for both planar and SPECT methods with (99m)Tc and (131)I, but were poorest and deviated from known values for smaller objects, most notably for (111)In. SPECT quantification was affected by the partial volume effect in smaller objects and generally showed larger errors than the planar results in these cases for all radionuclides. For the cardiac phantom, results were the most accurate of all of the experiments for all radionuclides. Background subtraction was an important factor influencing these results. The contribution of scattered photons was important in quantification with (131)I; if scatter was not accounted for, activity tended to be overestimated using planar quantification methods. For the torso phantom experiments, results show a clear underestimation of activity when compared to previous experiment with spherical sources for all radionuclides. Despite some variations that were observed as the level of background increased, the SPECT results were more consistent across different activity concentrations. Planar or SPECT quantification on state-of-the-art gamma cameras with appropriate quantitative processing can provide accuracies of better than 10% for large objects and modest target-to-background concentrations; however when smaller objects are used, in the presence of higher background, and for nuclides with more complex decay schemes, SPECT quantification methods generally produce better results. Health Phys. 99(5):688-701; 2010
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We propose two quantum error-correction schemes which increase the maximum storage time for qubits in a system of cold-trapped ions, using a minimal number of ancillary qubits. Both schemes consider only the errors introduced by the decoherence due to spontaneous emission from the upper levels of the ions. Continuous monitoring of the ion fluorescence is used in conjunction with selective coherent feedback to eliminate these errors immediately following spontaneous emission events.
Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry
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Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.
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Age-related changes and the effects of dementia of the Alzheimer type (DAT) were investigated during a visual orienting attention task in which attention was pre-cued to one or other hemifields. Central cues were either valid, neutral, invalid or NoGo (inhibitory). The response time cost-benefit analysis showed a decreased benefit after valid cueing in the old compared with the young group with no change in the cost of invalid cueing. The older group were also slower over all cue types. These results suggest there is an age-related reduced ability to covertly orient attention in a visual hemifield before target onset. In contrast, the DAT group showed an increased response time benefit and showed a trend for a decreased cost in response time compared with controls. This was due to slowest response times after neutral cues. They also made significantly more response errors particularly following neutral cueing, and were less able to inhibit responses on NoGo trials than controls. The increased benefit and reduced cost found in the DAT group was interpreted as an impairment in dividing attention between left and right target locations.