On the effect of Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly on the monsoon rainfall of south-east of Iran

Southeast region of the country has hot and dry weather which causes to happen heavy rainfall in short time period of warm seasons and to occur river flooding. These precipitations are influenced by monsoon system of India ocean. In these thesis, It was tried to evaluate the relation between thermal anomaly of sea surface in India ocean and Arab sea which effects on southeast monsoon precipitations of Iran, For evaluation of this happening in southeast, data were collected from 7 synoptic observation stations of Bandar Abbas, Minab, Kerman , Bam, Chabahar, Iranshahr, Zahedan and 17 rain gauge stations during June to September of each year from 1980 to 2010. Rainy days were determine and then some information about synoptic circulation models, maps of average pressure of sea surface, geopotential height of 700hP surface, geopotential height of 500hP surface, temperature of 850 hPa surface, humidity of 700 hPa surface, vertical velocity of 700 hPa surface, vertical velocity of 500 hP and humidity of 2 meters height for 6 systems were extracted from NCEP/NCAR website for evaluation. By evaluation of these systems it was determined that the monsoon low pressure system tab brings needed humidity of these precipitations to this region from India ocean and Arab sea with a vast circulation. It is seen that warm air pool locates on Iran and cold air pool locates on west of India at 800 hPa surface. In a rainy day this warm air transfers to high latitudes and influences the temperature trough of southeast cold air pool of the country. In the middle surfaces of 700 and 500 hPa, the connection between low height system above India and low height system above the higher latitudes causes the low height system above India to be strength and developed. By evaluation of humidity at 2 meters height and 700 hPa surface we observe that humidity Increases in the southeast region. With penetrating of the low height system of India above the 700 and 500 hPa surfaces of southeast of Iran, the value of negative omega (Rising vertical velocity) is increased. In the second pace, it was shown the evaluation of how the correlation between sea surface temperature anomaly in India Ocean and Arab sea influences southeast monsoon precipitation of Iran. For this purpose the data of water surface temperature anomaly of Arab sea and India ocean, the data of precipitation anomaly of 7 synoptic stations , mentioned above, and correlation coefficient among the data of precipitation anomaly and water surface temperature anomaly of Arab Sea, east and west of India ocean were calculated. In conclusion it was shown that the maximum correlation coefficient of precipitation anomaly had belonged to India Ocean in June and no meaningful correlation was resulted in July among precipitation anomaly and sea surface temperature anomaly for three regions, which were evaluated.

Integrating Environmental Justice and Social-Ecological Resilience for Successful Adaptation to Climate Change: Lessons from African American Communities on the Eastern Shore of the Chesapeake Bay

This research concerns the conceptual and empirical relationship between environmental justice and social-ecological resilience as it relates to climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Two primary questions guided this work. First, what is the level of resilience and adaptive capacity for social-ecological systems that are characterized by environmental injustice in the face of climate change? And second, what is the role of an environmental justice approach in developing adaptation policies that will promote social-ecological resilience? These questions were investigated in three African American communities that are particularly vulnerable to flooding from sea-level rise on the Eastern Shore of the Chesapeake Bay. Using qualitative and quantitative methods, I found that in all three communities, religious faith and the church, rootedness in the landscape, and race relations were highly salient to community experience. The degree to which these common aspects of the communities have imparted adaptive capacity has changed over time. Importantly, a given social-ecological factor does not have the same effect on vulnerability in all communities; however, in all communities political isolation decreases adaptive capacity and increases vulnerability. This political isolation is at least partly due to procedural injustice, which occurs for a number of interrelated reasons. This research further revealed that while all stakeholders (policymakers, environmentalists, and African American community members) generally agree that justice needs to be increased on the Eastern Shore, stakeholder groups disagree about what a justice approach to adaptation would look like. When brought together at a workshop, however, these stakeholders were able to identify numerous challenges and opportunities for increasing justice. Resilience was assessed by the presence of four resilience factors: living with uncertainty, nurturing diversity, combining different types of knowledge, and creating opportunities for self-organization. Overall, these communities seem to have low resilience; however, there is potential for resilience to increase. Finally, I argue that the use of resilience theory for environmental justice communities is limited by the great breadth and depth of knowledge required to evaluate the state of the social-ecological system, the complexities of simultaneously promoting resilience at both the regional and local scale, and the lack of attention to issues of justice.

DCA for bot detection

Ensuring the security of computers is a non-trivial task, with many techniques used by malicious users to compromise these systems. In recent years a new threat has emerged in the form of networks of hijacked zombie machines used to perform complex distributed attacks such as denial of service and to obtain sensitive data such as password information. These zombie machines are said to be infected with a dasiahotpsila - a malicious piece of software which is installed on a host machine and is controlled by a remote attacker, termed the dasiabotmaster of a botnetpsila. In this work, we use the biologically inspired dendritic cell algorithm (DCA) to detect the existence of a single hot on a compromised host machine. The DCA is an immune-inspired algorithm based on an abstract model of the behaviour of the dendritic cells of the human body. The basis of anomaly detection performed by the DCA is facilitated using the correlation of behavioural attributes such as keylogging and packet flooding behaviour. The results of the application of the DCA to the detection of a single hot show that the algorithm is a successful technique for the detection of such malicious software without responding to normally running programs.

Sedimentary archives of climate and sea-level changes during the Holocene in the Rhone prodelta (NW Mediterranean Sea)

A 7.38 m-long sediment core was collected from the eastern part of the Rhone prodelta (NW Mediterranean) at 67 m water depth. A multi-proxy study (sedimentary facies, benthic foraminifera and ostracods, clay mineralogy, and major elements from XRF) provides a multi-decadal to century-scale record of climate and sea-level changes during the Holocene. The early Holocene is marked by alternative silt and clay layers interpreted as distal tempestites deposited in a context of rising sea level. This interval contains shallow infra-littoral benthic meiofauna (e.g. Pontocythere elongata, Elphidium spp., Quinqueloculina lata) and formed between ca. 20 and 50 m water depth. The middle Holocene (ca. 8.3 to 4.5 ka cal. BP), is characterized, at the core site, by a period of sediment starvation (accumulation rate of ca. 0.01 cm yr−1) resulting from the maximum landward shift of the shoreline and the Rhone outlet(s). From a sequence stratigraphic point of view, this condensed interval, about 35 cm-thick, is a Maximum Flooding Surface that can be identified on seismic profiles as the transition between delta retrogradation and delta progradation. It is marked by very distinct changes in all proxy records. Following the stabilization of the global sea level, the late Holocene is marked by the establishment of prodeltaic conditions at the core site, as shown by the lithofacies and by the presence of benthic meiofauna typical of the modern Rhone prodelta (e.g. Valvulineria bradyana, Cassidulina carinata, Bulimina marginata). Several periods of increased fluvial discharge are also emphasized by the presence of species commonly found in brackish and shallow water environments (e.g. Leptocythere). Some of these periods correspond to the multi-decadal to centennial late Holocene humid periods recognized in Europe (i.e. the 2.8 ka event and the Little Ice Age). Two other periods of increased runoffs at ca. 1.3 and 1.1 ka cal. BP are recognized, and are likely to reflect periods of regional climate deterioration that are observed in the Rhone watershed.

A Plan for Salisbury, MD: Urban Design Transformations in Response to Sea Level Rise

This thesis proposes a master plan for Salisbury, MD that presents solutions to the challenges faced by small towns along tidal waterways. Salisbury’s challenges include flooding and sea level rise, poorly defined arteries framing downtown and disconnecting neighborhoods, and a lack of vibrant, mixed use development. These issues are common to small towns and present opportunities for transformative design.

As Escadarias de Terraços do Ródão à Chamusca (Baixo Tejo) - Caracterização e Interpretação de Dados Sedimentares, Tectónicos, Climáticos e do Paleolítico

As unidades estratigráficas que resultaram da evolução do rio Tejo em Portugal, aqui analisadas em pormenor entre Vila Velha de Ródão e Chamusca, possuem distintas características sedimentares e indústrias líticas: uma unidade culminante do enchimento sedimentar (o ancestral Tejo, antes do início da etapa de incisão fluvial) - SLD13 (+142 a 262 m acima do leito actual; com provável idade 3,6 a 1,8 Ma), sem indústrias identificadas; terraço T1 (+76 a 180 m; ca. 1000? a 900 ka), sem indústrias; terraço T2 (+57 a 150 m; idade estimada em ca. 600 ka), sem indústrias; terraço T3 (+36 a 113 m; ca. 460 a 360? ka), sem indústrias; terraço T4 (+26 a 55 m; ca. 335 a 155 ka), Paleolítico Inferior (Acheulense) em níveis da base e intermédios mas Paleolítico Médio inicial em níveis do topo; terraço T5 (+5 a 34 m; 135 a 73 ka), Paleolítico Médio (com talhe Mustierense, Levallois); terraço T6 (+3 a 14 m; 62 a 32 ka), Paleolítico Médio final (Mustierense final); Areias da Carregueira (areias eólicas) e coluviões (+3 a ca. 100 m; 32 a 12 ka), Paleolítico Superior a Epipaleolítico; enchimento da planície aluvial (+0 a 8 m; ca. 12 ka a actual), Mesolítico e indústrias mais recentes. As diferenças na elevação (a.r.b.) das escadarias de terraços resultam de soerguimento diferencial, devido a falhas ativas. Numa dada escadaria datada, a projeção da elevação da superfície de cada terraço (a.r.b.) versus a sua idade permitiu estimar a idade do topo do terraço T2 (ca. 600 ka) e a provável idade do início da etapa de incisão (ca. 1,8 Ma). Obteve-se a duração da fase de agradação dos terraços baixos e médios: T6 – 30 ka; T5 – 62 ka; T4 – ca. 180 ka; T3 – ca. 100? ka. Conclui-se que durante o Plistocénico médio e final, as fases de incisão e alargamento do vale foram curtas (ca. 11-25 ka) e ocorreram durante períodos de nível do mar muito baixo, alternando com mais longas fases de inundação e agradação do vale durante níveis do mar mais altos. Estas oscilações eustáticas de causa climática estão sobrepostas a um contexto de soerguimento de longo termo, controlando o desenvolvimento das escadarias. Calculou-se que para os últimos ca. 155 ka as taxas de incisão de curto-termo apresentam valores (0,09 a 0,41 m/ka), aproximadamente, duplos dos calculados para o intervalo ca. 155 a 900 ka (0,04 a 0,28 m/ka). Este aumento na taxa de incisão deve estar relacionado com um aumento na taxa de soerguimento por intensificação da compressão devido à convergência entre as placas Africana e Eurasiática. Abstract: The terrace staircases of the Lower Tagus River (Ródão to Chamusca) – characterization and interpretation of the sedimentary, tectonic, climatic and Palaeolithic data The stratigraphic units that record the evolution of the Tagus River in Portugal (study area between Vila Velha de Ródão and Chamusca villages) have different sedimentary characteristics and lithic industries: a culminant sedimentary unit (the ancestral Tagus, before the drainage network entrenchment) – SLD13 (+142 to 262 m above river bed – a.r.b.; with probable age 3.6 to 1.8 Ma), without artefacts; T1 terrace (+76 to 180 m; ca. 1000? to 900 ka), without artefacts; T2 terrace (+57 to 150 m; top deposits with a probable age ca. 600 ka), without artefacts; T3 terrace (+36 to 113 m; ca. 460 to 360? ka), without artefacts; T4 terrace (+26 to 55 m; ca. 335 a 155 ka), Lower Paleolithic (Acheulian) at basal and middle levels but early Middle Paleolithic at top levels; T5 terrace (+5 to 34 m; 135 to 73 ka), Middle Paleolithic (Mousterian; Levallois technique); T6 terrace (+3 to 14 m; 62 to 32 ka), late Middle Paleolithic (late Mousterian); Carregueira Sands (aeolian sands) and colluvium (+3 a ca. 100 m; 32 to 12 ka), Upper Paleolithic to Epipaleolithic; alluvial plain (+0 to 8 m; ca. 12 ka to present), Mesolithic and more recent industries. The differences in elevation (a.r.b.) of the several terrace staircases results from differential uplift due to active faults. The age interval for each aggradation phase of T3 to T6 terraces was obtained: T3 – ca. 100? ka; T4 – ca. 180 ka; T5 – 62 ka; T6 – 30 ka. The intervals of river down-cutting and widening of the valley floor were short (ca. 11-25 ka) and coincided with periods of very low sea-level. The plotting of the elevation (a.r.b.) versus the age of each terrace surface allows to estimate the age of the T2 terrace (ca. 600 ka) and the probable age of the beginning of the incision stage (ca. 1.8 Ma). So, the high amplitude sea-level changes that characterized the Middle and Late Pleistocene strongly determined the episodic down-cutting phases of the river during the low stands sea levels that alternated with the flooding and aggradation phases of the incised valley during highstand sea levels. These climate related eustatic oscillations are superimposed onto a long term uplift pattern, controlling the river terrace staircase development. During the last ca. 155 ka, the short-term incision rates (0.09 a 0.41 m/ka) were twice the values determined for the interval 155 to 900 ka (0.04 to 0.28 m/ka). This increase in incision rate should be related with an increase in uplift rate resulting from an intensification of compression due to the convergence between African - Eurasian plates.

Flooded with Information from Social Media: Effects of Disaster Information Source and Visuals on Viewers' Cognitive, Affective, and Behavioral Responses

While a variety of crisis types loom as real risks for organizations and communities, and the media landscape continues to evolve, research is needed to help explain and predict how people respond to various kinds of crisis and disaster information. For example, despite the rising prevalence of digital and mobile media centered on still and moving visuals, and stark increases in Americans’ use of visual-based platforms for seeking and sharing disaster information, relatively little is known about how the presence or absence of disaster visuals online might prompt or deter resilience-related feelings, thoughts, and/or behaviors. Yet, with such insights, governmental and other organizational entities as well as communities themselves may best help individuals and communities prepare for, cope with, and recover from adverse events. Thus, this work uses the theoretical lens of the social-mediated crisis communication model (SMCC) coupled with the limited capacity model of motivated mediated message processing (LC4MP) to explore effects of disaster information source and visuals on viewers’ resilience-related responses to an extreme flooding scenario. Results from two experiments are reported. First a preliminary 2 (disaster information source: organization/US National Weather Service vs. news media/USA Today) x 2 (disaster visuals: no visual podcast vs. moving visual video) factorial between-subjects online experiment with a convenience sample of university students probes effects of crisis source and visuals on a variety of cognitive, affective, and behavioral outcomes. A second between-subjects online experiment manipulating still and moving visual pace in online videos (no visual vs. still, slow-pace visual vs. still, medium-pace visual vs. still, fast-pace visual vs. moving, slow-pace visual vs. moving, medium-pace visual vs. moving, fast-pace visual) with a convenience sample recruited from Amazon’s Mechanical Turk (mTurk) similarly probes a variety of potentially resilience-related cognitive, affective, and behavioral outcomes. The role of biological sex as a quasi-experimental variable is also investigated in both studies. Various implications for community resilience and recommendations for risk and disaster communicators are explored. Implications for theory building and future research are also examined. Resulting modifications of the SMCC model (i.e., removing “message strategy” and adding the new category of “message content elements” under organizational considerations) are proposed.

A field study to describe diel, tidal and semilunar rhythms of larval release in an assemblage of tropical rocky shore crabs

Available information on the larval release rhythms of brachyurans is biased to temperate estuarine species and outcomes resulting from some sort of artificial manipulation of ovigerous females. In this study we applied field methods to describe the larval release rhythms of an assemblage of tropical rocky shore crabs. Sampling the broods of ovigerous females of Pachygrapsus transversus at two different shores indicated a spatially consistent semilunar pattern, with larval release maxima around the full and new moon. Yet, synchronism between populations varied considerably, with the pattern obtained at the site exposed to a lower wave action far more apparent. Breeding cohorts at one of the sampled shores apparently belonged to actual age groups composing the ovigerous population. The data suggest that these breeding groups release their larvae in alternate syzygy periods, responding to a lunar cycle instead of the semilunar pattern observed for the whole population. For the description of shorter-term rhythms, temporal series at hour intervals were obtained by sampling the plankton and confinement boxes where ovigerous females were held. Unexpectedly, diurnal release activity prevailed over nocturnal hatching. Yet, only grapsids living higher on the shore exhibited strong preferences over the diel cycle, with P. transversus releasing their larvae during the day and Geograpsus lividus during the night. The pea crab Dissodactylus crinitichelis, the spider crab Epialtus brasiliensis and a suite of xanthoids undertook considerable releasing activity in both periods. Apart from the commensal pea crab D. crinitichelis, all other taxa revealed tide-related rhythms of larval release, with average estimates of the time of maximum hatching always around the time of high tides; usually during the flooding and slack, rather than the ebbing tide. Data obtained for P. transversus females held in confinement boxes indicated that early larval release is mostly due to nocturnal hatching, while zoeal release in diurnal groups took place at the time of high tide. Since nocturnal high tides at the study area occurred late, sometimes close to dusk, early release would allow more time for offshore transport of larvae when the action of potential predators is reduced.

Aerial line transect survey to estimate abundance of marsh deer (Blastocerus dichotomus) (Illiger, 1815)

A população de cervo-do-pantanal (Blastocerus dichotomus) está drasticamente reduzida no Brasil. O nosso objetivo foi o de estimar a abundância do cervo-do-pantanal na bacia do Rio Paraná e discutir a metodologia aplicada. Os resultados darão suporte para uma análise do impacto do enchimento da represa de Porto Primavera sobre essa população. Sessenta e nove animais foram registrados através de sobrevôo utilizando-se a metodologia de transecção linear com amostragem das distâncias. Os dados não corrigidos resultaram em uma densidade estimada de 0,0035ind/ha e uma população de 636 indivíduos. A correção de g para os animais que não foram vistos apresentou uma densidade de 0,0049 ind/ha e uma abundância de 896 (CV=0,27) indivíduos. A metodologia foi aplicada com sucesso na estimativa de cervo-do-pantanal. Esse resultado é importante para avaliarmos a população do cervo-do-pantanal na área e para futuramente analisarmos o impacto do enchimento da represa.

Performance evaluation of DCA and SRC on a single bot detection

Malicious users try to compromise systems using new techniques. One of the recent techniques used by the attacker is to perform complex distributed attacks such as denial of service and to obtain sensitive data such as password information. These compromised machines are said to be infected with malicious software termed a “bot”. In this paper, we investigate the correlation of behavioural attributes such as keylogging and packet flooding behaviour to detect the existence of a single bot on a compromised machine by applying (1) Spearman’s rank correlation (SRC) algorithm and (2) the Dendritic Cell Algorithm (DCA). We also compare the output results generated from these two methods to the detection of a single bot. The results show that the DCA has a better performance in detecting malicious activities.

Comparison of Hydrologic and Hydraulic Characteristics of the Anacostia River to Non-Urban Coastal Streams

Streams in urban areas often utilize channelization and other bank erosion control measures to improve flood conveyance, reduce channel migration, and overbank flooding. This leads to reductions in evapotranspiration and sediment storage on floodplains. The purpose of this study is to quantify the evapotranspiration and sediment transport capacity in the Anacostia Watershed, a large Coastal Plain urban watershed, and to compare these processes to a similar sized non-urban watershed. Times series data of hydrologic and hydraulic changes in the Anacostia, as urbanization progressed between 1939-2014, were also analyzed. The data indicates lower values of warm season runoff in the non-urban stream, suggesting a shift from evapotranspiration to runoff in urban streams. Channelization in the Anacostia also increased flow velocities and decreased high flow width. The high velocities associated with channelization and the removal of floodplain storage sites allows for the continued downstream transport of sediment despite stream bank stabilization.

O ciclo da água pluvial em meio urbano

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Arquitetura com Especialização em Urbanismo, apresentada na Universidade de Lisboa - Faculdade de Arquitetura.

Orientation and external morphology of burrows of the mangrove crab Ucides cordatus (Crustacea: Brachyura: Ucididae)

The aim of the present study was to characterize the external morphology and the orientation of burrows constructed by the mangrove crab Ucides cordatus. Data were obtained from two mangrove forests of similar vegetation dominance (Laguncularia racemosa) but differing in flooding heights. These mangroves were located near Barra de Icapara, Iguape City (SP), Brazil, (24 degrees 50'36 '' S-47 degrees 59'53'W). A total of 221 burrows were examined (120 on the high mangrove and 101 on the low mangrove). External morphology of the burrows was recorded by photographs for categorization and description. The directions of the burrow openings were recorded using a geological compass and the declivities of the ducts were measured with a clinometer. Females constructed 70.8% at Site A and 69.4% at Site B of the occupied burrows with the opening facing the margin of the river (P < 0.001), whilst males showed no significant difference in the burrow orientation (P > 0.05) at either site. In females, the tendency for burrow orientation possibly has a reproductive connotation as larval dispersal may be favoured and enhanced by the tides. Four groups of distinct tracks related to the morphotypes and developmental stages of U. cordatus were observed, No sediment constructions associated with the burrows were recorded for this species. Declivity of the burrows from juveniles was lower than from adults (P < 0.05), probably caused by the differential growth of the chelipeds in this species.

Estudo da segregação gravitacional do processo de injeção de vapor em reservátórios heterogêneos

Due to reservoirs complexity and significantly large reserves, heavy oil recovery has become one of the major oil industry challenges. Thus, thermal methods have been widely used as a strategic method to improve heavy oil recovery. These methods improve oil displacement through viscosity reduction, enabling oil production in fields which are not considered commercial by conventional recovery methods. Among the thermal processes, steam flooding is the most used today. One consequence in this process is gravity segregation, given by difference between reservoir and injected fluids density. This phenomenon may be influenced by the presence of reservoir heterogeneities. Since most of the studies are carried out in homogeneous reservoirs, more detailed studies of heterogeneities effects in the reservoirs during steam flooding are necessary, since most oil reservoirs are heterogeneous. This paper presents a study of reservoir heterogeneities and their influence in gravity segregation during steam flooding process. In this study some heterogeneous reservoirs with physical characteristics similar those found in the Brazilian Northeast Basin were analyzed. To carry out the simulations, it was used the commercial simulator STARS by CMG (Computer Modeling Group) - version 2007.11. Heterogeneities were modeled with lower permeability layers. Results showed that the presence of low permeability barriers can improve the oil recovery, and reduce the effects of gravity segregation, depending on the location of heterogeneities. The presence of these barriers have also increased the recovered fraction even with the reduction of injected steam rate

Estudo paramétrico da recuperação de petróleo pesado por aquecimento eletromagnético resistivo

Electrical resistive heating (ERH) is a thermal method used to improve oil recovery. It can increase oil rate and oil recovery due to temperature increase caused by electrical current passage through oil zone. ERH has some advantage compared with well-known thermal methods such as continuous steam flood, presenting low-water production. This method can be applied to reservoirs with different characteristics and initial reservoir conditions. Commercial software was used to test several cases using a semi-synthetic homogeneous reservoir with some characteristics as found in northeast Brazilian basins. It was realized a sensitivity analysis of some reservoir parameters, such as: oil zone, aquifer presence, gas cap presence and oil saturation on oil recovery and energy consumption. Then it was tested several cases studying the electrical variables considered more important in the process, such as: voltage, electrical configurations and electrodes positions. Energy optimization by electrodes voltage levels changes and electrical settings modify the intensity and the electrical current distribution in oil zone and, consequently, their influences in reservoir temperature reached at some regions. Results show which reservoir parameters were significant in order to improve oil recovery and energy requirement in for each reservoir. Most significant parameters on oil recovery and electrical energy delivered were oil thickness, presence of aquifer, presence of gas cap, voltage, electrical configuration and electrodes positions. Factors such as: connate water, water salinity and relative permeability to water at irreducible oil saturation had low influence on oil recovery but had some influence in energy requirements. It was possible to optimize energy consumption and oil recovery by electrical variables. Energy requirements can decrease by changing electrodes voltages during the process. This application can be extended to heavy oil reservoirs of high depth, such as offshore fields, where nowadays it is not applicable any conventional thermal process such as steam flooding