A comparative long-memory Analysis between Spanish, Mexican and U.S. interest rates

Evidence exists that many natural facts are described better as a fractal. Although fractals are very useful for describing nature, it is also appropiate to review the concept of random fractal in finance. Due to the extraordinary importance of Brownian motion in physics, chemistry or biology, we will consider the generalization that supposes fractional Brownian motion introduced by Mandelbrot.The main goal of this work is to analyse the existence of long range dependence in instantaneous forward rates of different financial markets. Concretelly, we perform an empirical analysis on the Spanish, Mexican and U.S. interbanking interest rate. We work with three time series of daily data corresponding to 1 day operations from 28th March 1996 to 21st May 2002. From among all the existing tests on this matter we apply the methodology proposed in Taqqu, Teverovsky and Willinger (1995).

Term structure of interest rates. European financial integration

In this paper we estimate, analyze and compare the term structures of interest rates in six different countries over the period 1992-2004. We apply the Nelson-Siegel model to obtain the term structures of interest rates at weekly intervals. A total of 4,038 curves are estimated and analyzed. Four European Monetary Union countries¿Spain, France, Germany and Italy¿are included. The UK is also included as a European non-member of the Monetary Union. Finally the US completes the analysis. The goal is to determine the differences in the shapes of the term structure of interest rates among these countries. Likewise, we can determine the most usual term structure shapes that appear for each country.*****

Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the Quadratic Spline approach to modelling age specific fertility rates

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.

Seasonal and circadian changes in activity rates of adult farm blue foxes

Selostus: Tarhattujen sinikettujen vuodenaikainen ja vuorokautinen aktiivisuus

Bermuda grass sod production as related to nitrogen rates

Of all nutrients, N has the strongest effect on grass growth and an adequate N fertilization can reduce the time required for the formation of high-quality mats. This study aimed to evaluate the influence of N fertilization on Bermuda grass sod production and quality. The experiment was conducted in an area of commercial sod production, in Capela do Alto, state of São Paulo. Cynodon dactylon (Pers) L., known as Bermuda grass, was evaluated in a randomized complete block design with five treatments and four replications. Treatments consisted of five N rates: 0, 150, 300, 450 and 600 kg ha-1. Increasing N applications to Bermuda grass increased the soil cover rate, reducing the time required for mat formation. The accumulation of rhizome + root + stolon dry matter was highest at a rate of 354 kg ha-1 N and the mat resistance to breakage at a rate of 365 kg ha-1 N. Nitrogen rates between 354 and 365 kg ha-1 increased mat resistance and consequently the suitability for postharvest handling, tending to improve the efficiency in the area.

Resting heart rate and the risk of heart failure in healthy adults: the rotterdam study.

Background- An elevated resting heart rate is associated with rehospitalization for heart failure and is a modifiable risk factor in heart failure patients. We aimed to examine the association between resting heart rate and incident heart failure in a population-based cohort study of healthy adults without pre-existing overt heart disease. Methods and Results- We studied 4768 men and women aged ≥55 years from the population-based Rotterdam Study. We excluded participants with prevalent heart failure, coronary heart disease, pacemaker, atrial fibrillation, atrioventricular block, and those using β-blockers or calcium channel blockers. We used extended Cox models allowing for time-dependent variation of resting heart rate along follow-up. During a median of 14.6 years of follow-up, 656 participants developed heart failure. The risk of heart failure was higher in men with higher resting heart rate. For each increment of 10 beats per minute, the multivariable adjusted hazard ratios in men were 1.16 (95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.28; P=0.005) in the time-fixed heart rate model and 1.13 (95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.25; P=0.017) in the time-dependent heart rate model. The association could not be demonstrated in women (P for interaction=0.004). Censoring participants for incident coronary heart disease or using time-dependent models to account for the use of β-blockers or calcium channel blockers during follow-up did not alter the results. Conclusions- Baseline or persistent higher resting heart rate is an independent risk factor for the development of heart failure in healthy older men in the general population.

Soil shear strength under non-irrigated and irrigated short duration grazing systems

Pasture productivity can drop due to soil compaction caused by animal trampling. Physical and mechanical alterations are therefore extremely important indicators for pasture management. The objective of this research was to: draw and evaluate the Mohr failure line of a Red Yellow Latossol under different pasture cycles and natural forest; calculate apparent cohesion; observe possible physical alterations in this soil; and propose a correction factor for stocking rates based on shear strength properties. This study was conducted between March/2006 and March/2007 on the Experimental Farm of Fundação de Ensino Superior de Passos, in Passos, state of Minas Gerais. The total study area covered 6 ha, of which 2 ha were irrigated pasture, 2 ha non-irrigated pasture and 2 ha natural forest. Brachiaria brizantha cv. MG-5 Vitória was used as forage plant. The pasture area was divided into paddocks. The Mohr failure line of samples of a Red Yellow Latossol under irrigated pasture equilibrated at a tension of water content of 6 kPa indicated higher shear strength than under non-irrigated pasture. The shear strength under irrigated pasture and natural forest was higher than under non-irrigated pasture. At a tension of water content of 33 kPa no difference was found in shear strength between management and use. Possible changes in soil structure were caused by apparent cohesion. The values of the correction factor were close to 1, which may indicate a possible soil compaction in prolonged periods of management.

Response of Epidendrum Ibaguense (orchidaceae) to the application of lime rates to the pot

In the best cultivation methods of orchids, in particular of the genus Phalaenopsis, liming is a common practice. The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of lime rates (0.0; 1.0; 2.0; 3.0; 4.0; and 5.0 g dm-3 of substrate) applied to the cultivation substrate (xaxim) on the growth of Epidendrum ibaguense seedlings. In a greenhouse, 1-L plastic pots filled with 0.8 dm³ of xaxim were irrigated such that no leachate was lost during the experiment. N, P, K, Ca, Mg, S, Fe, Zn, B, and Mn contents in roots, stems and leaves were measured. Leachate was collected by applying a sufficient water volume to obtain 25 mL from each pot. Fourteen days after lime application of 3 g dm-3, the pH of the collected leachate reached values above 7 and a value of 6.29 with the highest lime rate at the end of the experiment. The lime rate did not influence plant height, probably due to a Zn deficiency at high pH levels and a Ca deficiency in the control. Nevertheless, there was a large increase in leaf production, for number as well as for dry matter mass. There was no statistical difference between treatments in root dry matter production. Maximum dry matter production was obtained at a lime rate of 4.09 g dm-3. Zinc concentrations diminished linearly with increasing lime rates; the concentrations in all treatments were below the levels suggested as adequate in the literature (25-200 mg kg-1). Nutrient concentrations in leaves indicated deficiency of N, S, and B at the highest lime rates (4.0 and 5.0 g dm-3), and of Ca in the treatment without liming.

Nitrate reductase activity and spad readings in leaf tissues of guinea grass submitted to nitrogen and potassium rates

Nitrogen and K deficiency are among the most yield limiting factors in Brazilian pastures. The lack of these nutrients can hamper the chlorophyll biosynthesis and N content in plant tissues. A greenhouse experiment was carried out to evaluate the relationship among N and K concentrations, the indirect determination of chlorophyll content (SPAD readings), nitrate reductase activity (RNO3-) in newly expanded leaf lamina (NL) and the dry matter yield for plant tops of Mombaça grass (Panicum maximum Jacq.). A fractionated 5² factorial design was used, with 13 combinations of N and K rates in the nutrient solution. The experimental units were arranged in a randomized block design, with four replications. Plants were harvested twice. The first harvest occurred 36 days after seedling transplanting and the second 29 days after the first. Significance occurred for the interaction between the N and K rates to SPAD readings and to RNO3- assessment taken on the NL during the first growth. Besides, RNO3- and SPAD readings increased only with the NL N concentration, reaching the highest values of both variables up to about 25 g kg-1, but were ratively constant at higher leaf N. Significant relationships either between SPAD readings or RNO3- activity and shoot dry mass weight were also observed. The critical levels of N concentration in the NL were, respectively, 22 and 17g kg-1 in the first and second harvest. Thus, SPAD instrument and RNO3- assessment can be used as complementary tools to evaluate the N status in forage grass.

An analysis of inflation rates in the European Union using wavelets : strong evidence against unit roots

In this paper we assume inflation rates in European Union countries may in fact be fractionally integrated. Given this assumption, we obtain estimations of the order of integration by means a method based on wavelets coefficients. Finally, results obtained allow reject the unit root hypothesis on inflation rates. It means that a random shock on the rate of inflation in these countries has transitory effects that gradually diminish with the passage of time, that this, said shock hasn¿t a permanent effect on future values of inflation rates

Added prognostic value of myocardial blood flow quantitation in rubidium-82 positron emission tomography imaging.

AIMS: We studied the respective added value of the quantitative myocardial blood flow (MBF) and the myocardial flow reserve (MFR) as assessed with (82)Rb positron emission tomography (PET)/CT in predicting major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in patients with suspected myocardial ischaemia. METHODS AND RESULTS: Myocardial perfusion images were analysed semi-quantitatively (SDS, summed difference score) and quantitatively (MBF, MFR) in 351 patients. Follow-up was completed in 335 patients and annualized MACE (cardiac death, myocardial infarction, revascularization, or hospitalization for congestive heart failure or de novo stable angor) rates were analysed with the Kaplan-Meier method in 318 patients after excluding 17 patients with early revascularizations (<60 days). Independent predictors of MACEs were identified by multivariate analysis. During a median follow-up of 624 days (inter-quartile range 540-697), 35 MACEs occurred. An annualized MACE rate was higher in patients with ischaemia (SDS >2) (n = 105) than those without [14% (95% CI = 9.1-22%) vs. 4.5% (2.7-7.4%), P < 0.0001]. The lowest MFR tertile group (MFR <1.8) had the highest MACE rate [16% (11-25%) vs. 2.9% (1.2-7.0%) and 4.3% (2.1-9.0%), P < 0.0001]. Similarly, the lowest stress MBF tertile group (MBF <1.8 mL/min/g) had the highest MACE rate [14% (9.2-22%) vs. 7.3% (4.2-13%) and 1.8% (0.6-5.5%), P = 0.0005]. Quantitation with stress MBF or MFR had a significant independent prognostic power in addition to semi-quantitative findings. The largest added value was conferred by combining stress MBF to SDS. This holds true even for patients without ischaemia. CONCLUSION: Perfusion findings in (82)Rb PET/CT are strong MACE outcome predictors. MBF quantification has an added value allowing further risk stratification in patients with normal and abnormal perfusion images.

PA21, a New Iron-Based Noncalcium Phosphate Binder, Prevents Vascular Calcification in Chronic Renal Failure Rats.

Chronic renal failure (CRF) is associated with the development of secondary hyperparathyroidism and vascular calcifications. We evaluated the efficacy of PA21, a new iron-based noncalcium phosphate binder, in controlling phosphocalcic disorders and preventing vascular calcifications in uremic rats. Rats with adenine-diet-induced CRF were randomized to receive either PA21 0.5, 1.5, or 5% or CaCO3 3% in the diet for 4 weeks, and were compared with uremic and nonuremic control groups. After 4 weeks of phosphate binder treatment, serum calcium, creatinine, and body weight were similar between all CRF groups. Serum phosphorus was reduced with CaCO3 3% (2.06 mM; P ≤ 0.001), PA21 1.5% (2.29 mM; P < 0.05), and PA21 5% (2.21 mM; P ≤ 0.001) versus CRF controls (2.91 mM). Intact parathyroid hormone was strongly reduced in the PA21 5% and CaCO3 3% CRF groups to a similar extent (1138 and 1299 pg/ml, respectively) versus CRF controls (3261 pg/ml; both P ≤ 0.001). A lower serum fibroblast growth factor 23 concentration was observed in the PA21 5%, compared with CaCO3 3% and CRF, control groups. PA21 5% CRF rats had a lower vascular calcification score compared with CaCO3 3% CRF rats and CRF controls. In conclusion, PA21 was as effective as CaCO3 at controlling phosphocalcic disorders but superior in preventing the development of vascular calcifications in uremic rats. Thus, PA21 represents a possible alternative to calcium-based phosphate binders in CRF patients.

Dynamics of case-fatalilty rates of recurrent thromboembolism and major bleeding in patients treated for venous thromboembolism.

In patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE), assessment of the risk of fatal recurrent VTE and fatal bleeding during anticoagulation may help to guide intensity and duration of therapy. We aimed to provide estimates of the case-fatality rate (CFR) of recurrent VTE and major bleeding during anticoagulation in a 'real life' population, and to assess these outcomes according to the initial presentation of VTE and its etiology. The study included 41,826 patients with confirmed VTE from the RIETE registry who received different durations of anticoagulation (mean 7.8 ± 0.6 months). During 27,110 patient-years, the CFR was 12.1% (95% CI, 10.2-14.2) for recurrent VTE, and 19.7% (95% CI, 17.4-22.1) for major bleeding. During the first three months of anticoagulant therapy, the CFR of recurrent VTE was 16.1% (95% CI, 13.6-18.9), compared to 2.0% (95% CI, 0-4.2) beyond this period. The CFR of bleeding was 20.2% (95% CI, 17.5-23.1) during the first three months, compared to 18.2% (95% CI, 14.0-23.2) beyond this period. The CFR of recurrent VTE was higher in patients initially presenting with PE (18.5%; 95% CI, 15.3-22.1) than in those with DVT (6.3%; 95% CI, 4.5-8.6), and in patients with provoked VTE (16.3%; 95% CI, 13.6-19.4) than in those with unprovoked VTE (5.5%; 95% CI, 3.5-8.0). In conclusion, the CFR of recurrent VTE decreased over time during anticoagulation, while the CFR of major bleeding remained stable. The CFR of recurrent VTE was higher in patients initially presenting with PE and in those with provoked VTE.

Optimal growth strategies when mortality and production rates are size-dependent

Pontryagin's maximum principle from optimal control theory is used to find the optimal allocation of energy between growth and reproduction when lifespan may be finite and the trade-off between growth and reproduction is linear. Analyses of the optimal allocation problem to date have generally yielded bang-bang solutions, i.e. determinate growth: life-histories in which growth is followed by reproduction, with no intermediate phase of simultaneous reproduction and growth. Here we show that an intermediate strategy (indeterminate growth) can be selected for if the rates of production and mortality either both increase or both decrease with increasing body size, this arises as a singular solution to the problem. Our conclusion is that indeterminate growth is optimal in more cases than was previously realized. The relevance of our results to natural situations is discussed.

Follicular lymphoma at relapse after rituximab containing regimens: comparison of time to event intervals prior to and after (90) Y-ibritumomab-tiuxetan.

Radioimmunotherapies with Zevalin® (RIT-Z) showed encouraging results in patients with relapsed/refractory follicular lymphoma (FL), leading frequently to failure-free intervals longer than those achieved by the last previous therapy. We compared time-to-event variables obtained before and after RIT-Z in patients with relapsed FL, previously exposed to rituximab. All patients with relapsed non-transformed, non-refractory, non-rituximab-naïve FL who have been treated with RIT-Z in two different centres in Europe were included. Staging and response were assessed by contrast-enhanced CT in all patients; PET/CT was performed according to local availability. Event-free survival (EFS) and time to next treatment (TTNT) following the last previous therapy and after RIT-Z were compared. Pre-therapy characteristics were tested in univariate analyses for prediction of outcomes. A description of the patterns of relapse was also provided. Among 70 patients treated, only 16 fulfilled the inclusion criteria. They were treated with a median of 3 prior lines of chemo-immunotherapies, including a median of 2 rituximab-containing regimens; 6 patients had undergone myeloablative chemotherapy with autologous stem cell rescue (ASCT). Overall response rates were 10 (62%) CR/CRu, 3 (19%) PR and 3 (19%) PD; response rates were similar in patients with prior ASCT. After RIT-Z only few patients obtained EFS and TTNT longer than after the last previous therapy. All four patients receiving rituximab maintenance were without progression 12 months after RIT-Z. Relapses occurred in both previously and newly involved sites; a significant association was found between the number of pathologic sites involved prior to RIT-Z and subsequent TTNT. Despite the excellent response rate, the duration of response was shorter than the previous one confirming the known trend of relapses to occur earlier after subsequent treatments. Rituximab maintenance after RIT-Z showed encouraging results in terms of prolonging EFS, warranting further studies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.