977 resultados para exponentially weighted moving average


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Birch pollen is highly allergenic. Knowledge of daily variations, atmospheric transport and source areas of birch pollen is important for exposure studies and for warnings to the public, especially for large cities such as London. Our results show that broad-leaved forests with high birch tree densities are located to the south and west of London. Bi-hourly Betula pollen concentrations for all the days included in the study, and for all available days with high birch pollen counts (daily average birch pollen counts >80 grains/m3), show that, on average, there is a peak between 1400 hours and 1600 hours. Back-trajectory analysis showed that, on days with high birch pollen counts (n=60), 80% of air masses arriving at the time of peak diurnal birch pollen count approached North London from the south in a 180 degree arc from due east to due west. Detailed investigations of three Betula pollen episodes, with distinctly different diurnal patterns compared to the mean daily cycle, were used to illustrate how night-time maxima (2200–0400 hours) in Betula pollen counts could be the result of transport from distant sources or long transport times caused by slow moving air masses. We conclude that the Betula pollen recorded in North London could originate from sources found to the west and south of the city and not just trees within London itself. Possible sources outside the city include Continental Europe and the Betula trees within the broad-leaved forests of Southern England.

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This study aims to determine the potential origin of Olea pollen recorded in Badajoz in the Southwest of the Iberian Peninsula during 2009–2011. This was achieved using a combination of daily average and diurnal (hourly) airborne Olea pollen counts recorded at Badajoz (south-western Spain) and Évora (south-eastern Portugal), an inventory of olive groves in the studied area and air mass trajectory calculations computed using the HYSPLIT model. Examining olive pollen episodes at Badajoz that had distinctly different diurnal cycles in olive pollen in relation to the mean, allowed us to identify three different scenarios where olive pollen can be transported to the city from either distant or nearby sources during conditions with slow air mass movements. Back trajectory analysis showed that olive pollen can be transported to Badajoz from the West on prevailing winds, either directly or on slow moving air masses, and from high densities of olive groves situated to the Southeast (e.g. Andalucía). Regional scale transport of olive pollen can result in increased nighttime concentrations of this important aeroallergen. This could be particularly important in Mediterranean countries where people can be outdoors during this time due to climate and lifestyle. Such studies that examine sources and the atmospheric transport of pollen are valuable for allergy sufferers and health care professionals because the information can be incorporated into forecasts, the outputs of which are used for avoiding exposure to aeroallergens and planning medication. The results of studies of this nature can also be used for examining gene flow in this important agricultural crop.

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The main aim of this study was to analyse the temporal and spatial variations in grass (Poaceae) pollen counts (2005–2011) recorded in Évora (Portugal), Badajoz (Spain) and Worcester (UK). Weekly average data were examined using nonparametric statistics to compare differences between places. On average, Évora recorded the earliest start dates of the Poaceae pollen seasons and Worcester the latest. The intensity of the Poaceae pollen season varied between sites, with Worcester usually recording the least and Évora the most grass pollen in a season. Mean durations of grass pollen seasons were 77 days in Évora, 78 days in Badajoz and 59 days in Worcester. Overall, longer Poaceae pollen seasons coincided with earlier pollen season start dates. Weekly pollen data, from March to September, from the three pollen-monitoring stations studied were compared. The best fit and most statistically significant correlations were obtained by moving Worcester data backward by 4 weeks (Évora, r = 0.810, p < 0.001) and 5 weeks (Badajoz,r = 0.849, p < 0.001). Weekly data from Worcester therefore followed a similar pattern to that of Badajoz and Évora but at a distance of more than 1,500 km and 4–5 weeks later. The sum of pollen recorded in a season was compared with monthly rainfall between January and May. The strongest positive relationship between season intensity and rainfall was between the annual sum of Poaceae pollen recorded in the season at Badajoz and Évora and total rainfall during January and February. Winter rainfall noticeably affects the intensity of Poaceae pollen seasons in Mediterranean areas, but this was not as important in Worcester.

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Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2015

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With the electricity market liberalization, the distribution and retail companies are looking for better market strategies based on adequate information upon the consumption patterns of its electricity consumers. A fair insight on the consumers’ behavior will permit the definition of specific contract aspects based on the different consumption patterns. In order to form the different consumers’ classes, and find a set of representative consumption patterns we use electricity consumption data from a utility client’s database and two approaches: Two-step clustering algorithm and the WEACS approach based on evidence accumulation (EAC) for combining partitions in a clustering ensemble. While EAC uses a voting mechanism to produce a co-association matrix based on the pairwise associations obtained from N partitions and where each partition has equal weight in the combination process, the WEACS approach uses subsampling and weights differently the partitions. As a complementary step to the WEACS approach, we combine the partitions obtained in the WEACS approach with the ALL clustering ensemble construction method and we use the Ward Link algorithm to obtain the final data partition. The characterization of the obtained consumers’ clusters was performed using the C5.0 classification algorithm. Experiment results showed that the WEACS approach leads to better results than many other clustering approaches.

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The paper introduces an approach to solve the problem of generating a sequence of jobs that minimizes the total weighted tardiness for a set of jobs to be processed in a single machine. An Ant Colony System based algorithm is validated with benchmark problems available in the OR library. The obtained results were compared with the best available results and were found to be nearer to the optimal. The obtained computational results allowed concluding on their efficiency and effectiveness.

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The short article attempts to make some very brief reflections on the effects a lack of public policies positively discriminatory in terms of public employment retirement. In particular, the observation of the absurd contradiction between the average age of retirement at the time of death (for men and women) and the average pension time for men and women in public employment in Portugal.

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Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

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This paper presents a novel approach to WLAN propagation models for use in indoor localization. The major goal of this work is to eliminate the need for in situ data collection to generate the Fingerprinting map, instead, it is generated by using analytical propagation models such as: COST Multi-Wall, COST 231 average wall and Motley- Keenan. As Location Estimation Algorithms kNN (K-Nearest Neighbour) and WkNN (Weighted K-Nearest Neighbour) were used to determine the accuracy of the proposed technique. This work is based on analytical and measurement tools to determine which path loss propagation models are better for location estimation applications, based on Receive Signal Strength Indicator (RSSI).This study presents different proposals for choosing the most appropriate values for the models parameters, like obstacles attenuation and coefficients. Some adjustments to these models, particularly to Motley-Keenan, considering the thickness of walls, are proposed. The best found solution is based on the adjusted Motley-Keenan and COST models that allows to obtain the propagation loss estimation for several environments.Results obtained from two testing scenarios showed the reliability of the adjustments, providing smaller errors in the measured values values in comparison with the predicted values.

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ABSTRACT – Background: According to the Report on Carcinogens, formaldehyde ranks 25th in the overall U.S. chemical production, with more than 5 million tons produced each year. Given its economic importance and widespread use, many people are exposed to formaldehyde environmentally and/or occupationally. Presently, the International Agency for Research on Cancer classifies formaldehyde as carcinogenic to humans (Group 1), based on sufficient evidence in humans and in experimental animals. Manyfold in vitro studies clearly indicated that formaldehyde can induce genotoxic effects in proliferating cultured mammalian cells. Furthermore, some in vivo studies have found changes in epithelial cells and in peripheral blood lymphocytes related to formaldehyde exposure. Methods: A study was carried out in Portugal, using 80 workers occupationally exposed to formaldehyde vapours: 30 workers from formaldehyde and formaldehyde-based resins production factory and 50 from 10 pathology and anatomy laboratories. A control group of 85 non-exposed subjects was considered. Exposure assessment was performed by applying simultaneously two techniques of air monitoring: NIOSH Method 2541 and Photo Ionization Detection equipment with simultaneously video recording. Evaluation of genotoxic effects was performed by application of micronucleus test in exfoliated epithelial cells from buccal mucosa and peripheral blood lymphocytes. Results: Time-weighted average concentrations not exceeded the reference value (0.75 ppm) in the two occupational settings studied. Ceiling concentrations, on the other hand, were higher than reference value (0.3 ppm) in both. The frequency of micronucleus in peripheral blood lymphocytes and in epithelial cells was significantly higher in both exposed groups than in the control group (p < 0.001). Moreover, the frequency of micronucleus in peripheral blood lymphocytes was significantly higher in the laboratories group than in the factory workers (p < 0.05). A moderate positive correlation was found between duration of occupational exposure to formaldehyde (years of exposure) and micronucleus frequency in peripheral blood lymphocytes (r = 0.401; p < 0.001) and in epithelial cells (r = 0.209; p < 0.01). Conclusions: The population studied is exposed to high peak concentrations of formaldehyde with a long-term exposure. These two aspects, cumulatively, can be the cause of the observed genotoxic endpoint effects. The association of these cytogenetic effects with formaldehyde exposure gives important information to risk assessment process and may also be used to assess health risks for exposed worker

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Paper presented at Geo-Spatial Crossroad GI_Forum, Salzburg, Austria.