Habitat complexity, spatial interference, and "minimum risk distribution": a framework for population stability

In the past century, the debate over whether or not density-dependent factors regulate populations has generally focused on changes in mean population density, ignoring the spatial variance around the mean as unimportant noise. In an attempt to provide a different framework for understanding population dynamics based on individual fitness, this paper discusses the crucial role of spatial variability itself on the stability of insect populations. The advantages of this method are the following: (1) it is founded on evolutionary principles rather than post hoc assumptions; (2) it erects hypotheses that can be tested; and (3) it links disparate ecological schools, including spatial dynamics, behavioral ecology, preference-performance, and plant apparency into an overall framework. At the core of this framework, habitat complexity governs insect spatial variance. which in turn determines population stability. First, the minimum risk distribution (MRD) is defined as the spatial distribution of individuals that results in the minimum number of premature deaths in a population given the distribution of mortality risk in the habitat (and, therefore, leading to maximized population growth). The greater the divergence of actual spatial patterns of individuals from the MRD, the greater the reduction of population growth and size from high, unstable levels. Then, based on extensive data from 29 populations of the processionary caterpillar, Ochrogaster lunifer, four steps are used to test the effect of habitat interference on population growth rates. (1) The costs (increasing the risk of scramble competition) and benefits (decreasing the risk of inverse density-dependent predation) of egg and larval aggregation are quantified. (2) These costs and benefits, along with the distribution of resources, are used to construct the MRD for each habitat. (3) The MRD is used as a benchmark against which the actual spatial pattern of individuals is compared. The degree of divergence of the actual spatial pattern from the MRD is quantified for each of the 29 habitats. (4) Finally, indices of habitat complexity are used to provide highly accurate predictions of spatial divergence from the MRD, showing that habitat interference reduces population growth rates from high, unstable levels. The reason for the divergence appears to be that high levels of background vegetation (vegetation other than host plants) interfere with female host-searching behavior. This leads to a spatial distribution of egg batches with high mortality risk, and therefore lower population growth. Knowledge of the MRD in other species should be a highly effective means of predicting trends in population dynamics. Species with high divergence between their actual spatial distribution and their MRD may display relatively stable dynamics at low population levels. In contrast, species with low divergence should experience high levels of intragenerational population growth leading to frequent habitat-wide outbreaks and unstable dynamics in the long term. Six hypotheses, erected under the framework of spatial interference, are discussed, and future tests are suggested.

Using postoperative cardiac troponin-I (cTi) levels to detect myocardial ischaemia in patients undergoing vascular surgery

Background, Cardiac complications occur commonly in vascular surgery patients. Diagnosis of cardiac complications is difficult because of the inaccuracies associated with traditional cardiac enzyme measurements. CTi, a highly sensitive and specific marker of myocardial injury, may be able to detect cardiac complications with greater ease and accuracy. Methods. The study prospectively examined 100 consecutive patients who underwent major vascular surgery between 6/7/98 and 31/12/98 at the Royal Brisbane Hospital. Daily measurements of cTi, creatine kinase (CK), creatine kinase MB (CKMB), CKMB index, renal function and haemoglobin were taken for three postoperative days. One postoperative electrocardiograph (ECC) was taken. An extensive cardiac history was taken. Intraoperative and postoperative events were recorded. Findings. There were 100 patients, 18 patients (18%) had a cTi elevation. On the basis of classical diagnostic criteria, 15 patients (15%) suffered one or more cardiac complication (either myocardial infarction, congestive cardiac failure, unstable angina or atrial fibrillation), One patient (1%) who had a cTi elevation died. CTI elevation occurred in five patients (5%) who were not diagnosed with cardiac complications based on traditional criteria. Despite not meeting specific diagnostic criteria for cardiac complications, all patients showed signs and symptoms that could be attributed to myocardial ischaemia, Every patient who developed congestive cardiac failure or atrial fibrillation had a cTi elevation. A Chi-square analysis revealed a significant association between cTi elevation and postoperative cardiac complications. Four variables contributed small but significant amounts of unique variance to the prediction of peak cTi on linear regression analysis. These were peak CKMB index, postoperative congestive cardiac failure, postoperative chest pain and postoperative cardiac complications. Conclusions. Routine cTi monitoring of postoperative vascular patients would be an effective and inexpensive way to detect patients with cardiac complications. The relationship between postoperative cTi elevation and significant coronary artery disease remains to be shown, (C) 2001 The international Society for Cardiovascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Patchy populations in stochastic environments: Critical number of patches for persistence

We introduce a model for the dynamics of a patchy population in a stochastic environment and derive a criterion for its persistence. This criterion is based on the geometric mean (GM) through time of the spatial-arithmetic mean of growth rates. For the population to persist, the GM has to be greater than or equal to1. The GM increases with the number of patches (because the sampling error is reduced) and decreases with both the variance and the spatial covariance of growth rates. We derive analytical expressions for the minimum number of patches (and the maximum harvesting rate) required for the persistence of the population. As the magnitude of environmental fluctuations increases, the number of patches required for persistence increases, and the fraction of individuals that can be harvested decreases. The novelty of our approach is that we focus on Malthusian local population dynamics with high dispersal and strong environmental variability from year to year. Unlike previous models of patchy populations that assume an infinite number of patches, we focus specifically on the effect that the number of patches has on population persistence. Our work is therefore directly relevant to patchily distributed organisms that are restricted to a small number of habitat patches.

Genetic Covariation between Serum {gamma}-Glutamyltransferase Activity and Cardiovascular Risk Factors

Background: Several studies have shown that variation in serum gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) in the population is associated with risk of death or development of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, stroke, or hypertension. This association is only partly explained by associations between GGT and recognized risk factors. Our aim was to estimate the relative importance of genetic and environmental sources of variation in GGT as well as genetic and environmental sources of covariation between GGT and other liver enzymes and markers of cardiovascular risk in adult twin pairs. Methods: We recruited 1134 men and 2241 women through the Australian Twin Registry. Data were collected through mailed questionnaires, telephone interviews, and by analysis of blood samples. Sources of variation in GGT, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and of covariation between GGT and cardiovascular risk factors were assessed by maximum-likelihood model-fitting. Results: Serum GGT, ALT, and AST were affected by additive genetic and nonshared environmental factors, with heritabilities estimated at 0.52, 0.48, and 0.32, respectively. One-half of the genetic variance in GGT was shared with ALT, AST, or both. There were highly significant correlations between GGT and body mass index; serum lipids, lipoproteins, glucose, and insulin; and blood pressure. These correlations were more attributable to genes that affect both GGT and known cardiovascular risk factors than to environmental factors. Conclusions: Variation in serum enzymes that reflect liver function showed significant genetic effects, and there was evidence that both genetic and environmental factors that affect these enzymes can also affect cardiovascular risk. (C) 2002 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

Repeated blood pressure measurements in a sample of Swedish twins: heritabilities and associations with polymorphisms in the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system Iliadou, Anastasia, Lichtenstein, Paul, Morgenstern, Ralf, Forsberg, Lena, Svensson, Richard, de Faire, Ulf, Martin, Nicholas, Pedersen, Nancy

Background Twin and family studies have shown that genetic effects explain a relatively high amount of the phenotypic variation in blood pressure. However, many studies have not been able to replicate findings of association between specific polymorphisms and diastolic and systolic blood pressure. Methods In a structural equation-modelling framework the authors investigated longitudinal changes in repeated measures of blood pressures in a sample of 298 like-sexed twin pairs from the population-based Swedish Twin Registry. Also examined was the association between blood pressure and polymorphisms in the angiotensin-I converting enzyme and the angiotensin 11 receptor type 1 with the 'Fulker' test Both linkage and association were tested simultaneously revealing whether the polymorphism is a Quantitative Trait Locus (QTL) or in linkage disequilibrium with the QTL. Results Genetic influences explained up to 46% of the phenotypic variance in diastolic and 63% of the phenotypic variance in systolic blood pressure. Genetic influences were stable over time and contributed up to 78% of the phenotypic correlation in both diastolic and systolic blood pressure. Non-shared environmental effects were characterised by time specific influences and little transmission from one time point to the next. There was no significant linkage and association between the polymorphisms and blood pressure. Conclusions There is a considerable genetic stability in both diastolic and systolic blood pressure for a 6-year period of time in adult life. Non-shared environmental influences have a small long-term effect Although associations with the polymorphisms could not be replicated, results should be interpreted with caution due to power considerations. (C) 2002 Lippincott Williams Wilkins.

Patterns and levels of endemism in the Australian Wet Tropics rainforest: evidence from flightless insects

This study examines the level and pattern of endemism among 274 flightless rainforest insects found in the Wet Tropics region of Australia. Endemism is measured at two nested scales: (1) those confined to the Wet Tropics, termed 'regional endemics'; and (2) the subset of those species confined to a single subregion of the Wet Tropics, termed 'subregional endemics'. Fifty per cent of the regional endemic flightless insects are also subregional endemics compared with 15% of the known regional endemic vertebrates. The four subregions with the most endemic flightless insect species are the uplands of Mt Finnigan, Carbine, Bellenden-Ker/Bartle Frere and Atherton. Multiple regression suggests that the combination of rainforest area and shape explain the most variance (R-2 = 0.603) in the numbers of species of regional endemic insects. However, subregional endemism is not closely correlated with the size or shape of the subregions in which they occur, or a combination of these factors. Candidate refugial and recolonised subregions are identified, and are consistent with data from palaeoclimatic models and refugia identified using other taxa. We group upland subregions into larger areas of endemism using parsimony analysis of endemism. These groupings are consistent with our understanding of the history of the Wet Tropics rainforests.

Heritabilities of Apolipoprotein and Lipid Levels in Three Countries

This study investigated the influence of genes and environment on the variation of apolipoprotein and lipid levels, which are important intermediate phenotypes in the pathways toward cardiovascular disease. Heritability estimates are presented, including those for apolipoprotein E and All levels which have rarely been reported before. We studied twin samples from the Netherlands (two cohorts; n = 160 pairs, aged 13-22 and n = 204 pairs, aged 34-62), Australia (n = 1362 pairs, aged 28-92) and Sweden (n = 302 pairs, aged 42-88). The variation of apolipoprotein and lipid levels depended largely on the influences of additive genetic factors in each twin sample. There was no significant evidence for the influence of common environment. No sex differences in heritability estimates for any phenotype in any of the samples were observed. Heritabilities ranged from 0.48-0.87, with most heritabilities exceeding 0.60. The heritability estimates in the Dutch samples were significantly higher than in the Australian sample. The heritabilities for the Swedish were intermediate to the Dutch and the Australian samples and not significantly different from the heritabilities in these other two samples. Although sample specific effects are present, we have shown that genes play a major role in determining the variance of apolipoprotein and lipid levels in four independent twin samples from three different countries.

Gene-Environment Interaction Effects on Behavioral Variation and Risk of Complex Disorders: The Example of Alcoholism and Other Psychiatric Disorders

There have been few replicated examples of genotype x environment interaction effects on behavioral variation or risk of psychiatric disorder. We review some of the factors that have made detection of genotype x environment interaction effects difficult, and show how genotype x shared environment interaction (GxSE) effects are commonly confounded with genetic parameters in data from twin pairs reared together. Historic data on twin pairs reared apart can in principle be used to estimate such GxSE effects, but have rarely been used for this purpose. We illustrate this using previously published data from the Swedish Adoption Twin Study of Aging (SATSA), which suggest that GxSE effects could account for as much as 25% of the total variance in risk of becoming a regular smoker. Since few separated twin pairs will be available for study in the future, we also consider methods for modifying variance components linkage analysis to allow for environmental interactions with linked loci.

Genetic and environmental contributions to cannabis dependence in a national young adult twin sample

Background. This paper examines genetic and environmental contributions to risk of cannabis dependence. Method. Symptoms of cannabis dependence and measures of social, family and individual risk factors were assessed in a sample of 6265 young adult male and female Australian twins born 1964-1971. Results. Symptoms of cannabis dependence were common: 11(.)0% of sample (15(.)1% of men and 7(.)8% of women) reported two or more symptoms of dependence. Correlates of cannabis dependence included educational attainment, exposure to parental conflict, sexual abuse, major depression, social anxiety and childhood conduct disorder. However, even after control for the effects of these factors, there was evidence of significant genetic effects on risk of cannabis dependence. Standard genetic modelling indicated that 44(.)7% (95% CI = 15-72(.)2) of the variance in liability to cannabis dependence could be accounted for by genetic factors, 20(.)1% (95 CI = 0-43(.)6) could be attributed to shared environment factors and 35(.)3% (95% CI = 26(.)4-45(.)7) could be attributed to non-shared environmental factors. However, while there was no evidence of significant gender differences in the magnitude of genetic and environmental influences, a model which assumed both genetic and shared environmental influences on risks of cannabis dependence among men and shared environmental but no genetic influences among women provided an equally good fit to the data. Conclusions. There was consistent evidence that genetic risk factors are important determinants of risk of cannabis dependence among men. However, it remains uncertain whether there are genetic influences on liability to cannabis dependence among women.

Critical quantum fluctuations in the degenerate parametric oscillator

We develop a systematic theory of critical quantum fluctuations in the driven parametric oscillator. Our analytic results agree well with stochastic numerical simulations. We also compare the results obtained in the positive-P representation, as a fully quantum-mechanical calculation, with the truncated Wigner phase-space equation, also known as the semiclassical theory. We show when these results agree and differ in calculations taken beyond the linearized approximation. We find that the optimal broadband noise reduction occurs just above threshold. In this region where there are large quantum fluctuations in the conjugate variance and macroscopic quantum superposition states might be expected, we find that the quantum predictions correspond very closely to the semiclassical theory.

Evolutionary experiments on mate recognition in the Drosophila serrata species complex

It is becoming increasingly apparent that at least some aspects of the evolution of mate recognition may be amenable to manipulation in evolutionary experiments. Quantitative genetic analyses that focus on the genetic consequences of evolutionary processes that result in mate recognition evolution may eventually provide an understanding of the genetic basis of the process of speciation. We review a series of experiments that have attempted to determine the genetic basis of the response to natural and sexual selection on mate recognition in the Drosophila serrata species complex. The genetic basis of mate recognition has been investigated at three levels: (1) between the species of D. serrata and D. birchii using interspecific hybrids, (2) between populations of D. serrata that are sympatric and allopatric with respect to D. birchii, and (3) within populations of D. serrata. These experiments suggest that it may be possible to use evolutionary experiments to observe important events such as the reinforcement of mate recognition, or the generation of the genetic associations that are central to many sexual selection models.

Comparative analysis of genetic diversity in the mangrove species Avicennia marina (Forsk.) Vierh. (Avicenniaceae) detected by AFLPs and SSRs

Avicennia marina is an important mangrove species with a wide geographical and climatic distribution which suggests that large amounts of genetic diversity are available for conservation and breeding programs. In this study we compare the informativeness of AFLPs and SSRs for assessing genetic diversity within and among individuals, populations and subspecies of A. marina in Australia. Our comparison utilized three SSR loci and three AFLP primer sets that were known to be polymorphic, and could be run in a single analysis on a capillary electrophoresis system, using different-colored fluorescent dyes. A total of 120 individuals representing six populations and three subspecies were samplcd. At the locus level, SSRs were considerably more variable than AFLPs, with a total of 52 alleles and an average heterozygosity of 0.78. Average heterozygosity for AFLPs was 0.193, but all of the 918 bands scored were polymorphic. Thus, AFLPs were considerably more efficient at revealing polymorphic loci than SSRs despite lower average heterozygosities. SSRs detected more genetic differentiation between populations (19 vs 9%) and subspecies (35 vs 11%) than AFLPs. Principal co-ordinate analysis revealed congruent patterns of genetic relationships at the individual, population and subspecific levels for both data sets. Mantel testing confirmed congruence between AFLP and SSR genetic distances among, but not within, population comparisons, indicating that the markers were segregating inde- pendently but that evolutionary groups (populations and subspecies) were similar. Three genetic criteria of importance for defining priorities for ex situ collections or in situ conservation programs (number of alleles, number of locally common alleles and number of private alleles) were correlated between the AFLP and SSR data sets. The congruence between AFLP and SSR data sets suggest that either method, or a combination, is applicable to expanded genetic studies of mangroves. The codominant nature of SSRs makes them ideal for further population-based investigations, such as mating-system analyses, for which the dominant AFLP markers are less well suited. AFLPs may be particularly useful for monitoring propagation programs and identifying duplicates within collections, since a single PCR assay can reveal many loci at once.

The association between auditory memory span and speech rate in children from kindergarten to sixth grade

This study reexamined the association between speech rate and memory span in children from kindergarten to sixth grade (N = 152) in order to potentially account for the inconsistencies within the published literature on this topic. Some of the inconsistencies in past research may reflect the different methods adopted in assessing speech rate. In particular, repeating word triples may itself involve memory demands, contaminating the correlation between speech rate and memory span in younger children. Analyses using composite speech rate and memory span measures showed that speech rate for word triples shared variance with memory span that was independent of speech rate for single words. Moreover, speech rate for word triples was largely redundant with age in explaining additional variation in memory span once the effects of speech rate for single words were controlled. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science.

Influence of left ventricular size and hemodynamics on the systolic longitudinal myocardial Doppler velocity response to stress

Background Systolic myocardial Doppler velocity accurately identifies coronary artery disease. However, these velocities may be affected by age, hemodynamic responses to stress, and left ventricular cavity size. We sought to examine the influences of these variables on myocardial velocity during dobutamine stress in patients with normal wall motion. Methods One hundred seventy-nine consecutive patients with normal dobutamine echocardiograms were studied. Color myocardial tissue Doppler data were obtained at rest and peak stress, and peak systolic myocardial velocity (PSV) was measured in all basal and midventricular segments. Velocities at rest and peak stress were compared with left ventricular diastolic and systolic volumes, blood pressure, heart rate, and age by Pearson correlation and interdecile analysis by use of analysis of variance. Results The only clinical variable correlating with velocity was age; PSV showed only mild correlation with age at rest (r(2) = 0.01, P = .001) and peak stress (r(2) = 0.02, P = .001), but the normal peak velocity was significantly different between the extremes of age (<44 years and >74 years). There was very weak correlation of PSV with systolic and diastolic blood pressure (r(2) < 0.01), heart rate (r(2) < 0.01), systemic vascular resistance (r(2) = 0.08), and left ventricular volumes (r(2) < 0.01). Conclusions Peak systolic velocity during dobutamine stress is relatively independent of hemodynamic factors and left ventricular cavity size. The extremes of age may influence peak systolic Doppler velocities. These results suggest that peak systolic velocity may be a robust quantitative measure during dobutamine echocardiography across most patient subgroups.

Investigation of the flow field of a highly heated jet of air

Measurements of mean and fluctuating velocity and temperature and their self- and cross-products to the third-order are presented for a heated axisymmetric air jet. Froude numbers in the range of 3500 13,190, Reynolds numbers in the range of 3470-8500 and non-dimensional streamwise distances. X*, from 0.27 to 1.98 are covered by the data. It was found that turbulence intensity decreases for the heated jet in the region between the inertia dominated and the buoyancy dominated regions which is contrary to findings with helium jets mixing with ambient air to produce density fluctuations. The effects of heating on the turbulent kinetic energy budget and the temperature variance budget show small differences for the inertia dominated region and the intermediate region which help to explain the transition process to the far field plume region. Constants are evaluated for the isotropic eddy diffusivity and generalised gradient hypothesis models as well as the scalar variance model. No significant effect of heating on the dissipation time-scale ratio was found. A novel wire array with an inclined cold wire was used. Measurements obtained with this probe are found to lead to asymmetries in some of the higher-order products. Further investigation suggested that the asymmetries are attributable to an as yet unreported interference effect produced by the leading prong of the inclined temperature wire, The effect may also have implications for inclined velocity wires which contain a temperature component when used in heated flows. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.