Assessing macro uncertainty in real-time when data are subject to revision

Model-based estimates of future uncertainty are generally based on the in-sample fit of the model, as when Box-Jenkins prediction intervals are calculated. However, this approach will generate biased uncertainty estimates in real time when there are data revisions. A simple remedy is suggested, and used to generate more accurate prediction intervals for 25 macroeconomic variables, in line with the theory. A simulation study based on an empirically-estimated model of data revisions for US output growth is used to investigate small-sample properties.

Methods to assess the effectiveness of naturally ventilated classrooms in Gauteng, South Africa

There is a tendency to reduce ventilation rates and natural or hybrid ventilation systems to ensure the conservation of energy in school buildings. However, high indoor pollutant concentration, due to natural or hybrid ventilation systems may have a significant adverse impact on the health and academic performance of pupils and students. Reviewed evidence shows that this can be detrimental to health and wellbeing in schools because of the learner density within a small area, eventually indicating that CO2 concentrations can rise to very high levels (about 4000 ppm) in classrooms during occupancy periods. In South Africa’s naturally ventilated classrooms, it is not clear whether the environmental conditions are conducive for learning. In addition, natural ventilation will be minimized given the fact that in cold, wet or windy weather, doors and windows will commonly remain closed. Evidence from literature based studies indicates that the significance of ventilation techniques is not understood satisfactorily and additional information concerning naturally ventilated schools has to be provided for better design and policy formulation. To develop a thorough understanding of the environments in classrooms, many other parameters have to be considered as well, such as outdoor air quality, CO2 concentrations, temperature and relative humidity and safety issues that may be important drawbacks for naturally ventilated schools. The aim of this paper is to develop a conceptual understanding of methods that can be implemented to assess the effectiveness of naturally ventilated classrooms in Gauteng, South Africa. A theoretical concept with an embedded practical methodology have been proposed for the research programme to investigate the relationship between ventilation rates and learning in schools in Gauteng , a province in South Africa. It is important that existing and future school buildings must include adequate outdoor ventilation, control of moisture, and avoidance of indoor exposures to microbiologic and chemical substances considered likely to have adverse effects in South Africa. Adequate ventilation in classrooms is necessary to reduce and/or eradicate the transmission of indoor pollutants.

Assessment for Learning in teaching English to Young Learners: teachers’ understanding, classroom practice and impact on interactions

It has been suggested that Assessment for Learning (AfL) plays a significant role in enhancing teaching and learning in mainstream educational contexts. However, little empirical evidence can support these claims. As AfL has been shown to be enacted predominantly through interactions in primary classes, there is a need to understand if it is appropriate, whether it can be efficiently used in teaching English to Young Learners (TEYL) and how it can facilitate learning in such a context. This emerging research focus gains currency especially in the light of SLA research, which suggests the important role of interactions in foreign language learning. This mixed-method, descriptive and exploratory study aims to investigate how teachers of learners aged 7-11 understand AfL; how they implement it; and the impact that such implementation could have on interactions which occur during lessons. The data were collected through lesson observations, scrutiny of school documents, semi-structured interviews and a focus group interview with teachers. The findings indicate that fitness for purpose guides the implementation of AfL in TEYL classrooms. Significantly, the study has revealed differences in the implementation of AfL between classes of 7-9 and 10-11 year olds within each of the three purposes (setting objectives and expectations; monitoring performance; and checking achievement) identified through the data. Another important finding of this study is the empirical evidence suggesting that the use of AfL could facilitate creating conditions conducive to learning in TEYL classes during collaborative and expert/novice interactions. The findings suggest that teachers’ understanding of AfL is largely aligned with the theoretical frameworks (Black & Wiliam, 2009; Swaffield, 2011) already available. However, they also demonstrate that there are TEYL specific characteristics. This research has important pedagogical implications and indicates a number of areas for further research.

Physiological and morphological adaptations of herbaceous perennial legumes allow differential access to sources of varyingly soluble phosphate

The aim of this study was to investigate the capacity of three perennial legume species to access sources of varyingly soluble phosphorus (P) and their associated morphological and physiological adaptations. Two Australian native legumes with pasture potential (Cullen australasicum and Kennedia prostrata) and Medicago sativa cv. SARDI 10 were grown in sand under two P levels (6 and 40 µg P g−1) supplied as Ca(H2PO4)2·H2O (Ca-P, highly soluble, used in many fertilizers) or as one of three sparingly soluble forms: Ca10(OH)2(PO4)6 (apatite-P, found in relatively young soils; major constituent of rock phosphate), C6H6O24P6Na12 (inositol-P, the most common form of organic P in soil) and FePO4 (Fe-P, a poorly-available inorganic source of P). All species grew well with soluble P. When 6 µg P g−1 was supplied as sparingly soluble P, plant dry weight (DW) and P uptake were very low for C. australasicum and M. sativa (0.1–0.4 g DW) with the exception of M. sativa supplied with apatite-P (1.5 g). In contrast, K. prostrata grew well with inositol-P (1.0 g) and Fe-P (0.7 g), and even better with apatite-P (1.7 g), similar to that with Ca-P (1.9 g). Phosphorus uptake at 6 µg P g−1 was highly correlated with total root length, total rhizosphere carboxylate content and total rhizosphere acid phosphatase (EC 3.1.3.2) activity. These findings provide strong indications that there are opportunities to utilize local Australian legumes in low P pasture systems to access sparingly soluble soil P and increase perennial legume productivity, diversity and sustainability.

Ecto- and arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis can induce tolerance to toxic pulses of phosphorus in jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) seedlings

In common with many plants native to low P soils, jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) develops toxicity symptoms upon exposure to elevated phosphorus (P). Jarrah plants can establish arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) and ectomycorrhizal (ECM) associations, along with a non-colonizing symbiosis described recently. AM colonization is known to influence the pattern of expression of genes required for P uptake of host plants and our aim was to investigate this phenomenon in relation to P sensitivity. Therefore, we examined the effect on hosts of the presence of AM and ECM fungi in combination with toxic pulses of P and assessed possible correlations between the induced tolerance and the shoot P concentration. The P transport dynamics of AM (Rhizophagus irregularis and Scutellospora calospora), ECM (Scleroderma sp.), non-colonizing symbiosis (Austroboletus occidentalis), dual mycorrhizal (R. irregularis and Scleroderma sp.), and non-mycorrhizal (NM) seedlings were monitored following two pulses of P. The ECM and A. occidentalis associations significantly enhanced the shoot P content of jarrah plants growing under P-deficient conditions. In addition, S. calospora, A. occidentalis, and Scleroderma sp. all stimulated plant growth significantly. All inoculated plants had significantly lower phytotoxicity symptoms compared to NM controls 7 days after addition of an elevated P dose (30 mg P kg−1 soil). Following exposure to toxicity-inducing levels of P, the shoot P concentration was significantly lower in R. irregularis-inoculated and dually inoculated plants compared to NM controls. Although all inoculated plants had reduced toxicity symptoms and there was a positive linear relationship between rank and shoot P concentration, the protective effect was not necessarily explained by the type of fungal association or the extent of mycorrhizal colonization.

HPA axis related genes and response to psychological therapies: genetics and epigenetics

Background Hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal (HPA) axis functioning has been implicated in the development of stress-related psychiatric diagnoses and response to adverse life experiences. This study aimed to investigate the association between genetic and epigenetics in HPA axis and response to cognitive behavior therapy (CBT). Methods Children with anxiety disorders were recruited into the Genes for Treatment project (GxT, N = 1,152). Polymorphisms of FKBP5 and GR were analyzed for association with response to CBT. Percentage DNA methylation at the FKBP5 and GR promoter regions was measured before and after CBT in a subset (n = 98). Linear mixed effect models were used to investigate the relationship between genotype, DNA methylation, and change in primary anxiety disorder severity (treatment response). Results Treatment response was not associated with FKBP5 and GR polymorphisms, or pretreatment percentage DNA methylation. However, change in FKBP5 DNA methylation was nominally significantly associated with treatment response. Participants who demonstrated the greatest reduction in severity decreased in percentage DNA methylation during treatment, whereas those with little/no reduction in severity increased in percentage DNA methylation. This effect was driven by those with one or more FKBP5 risk alleles, with no association seen in those with no FKBP5 risk alleles. No significant association was found between GR methylation and response. Conclusions Allele-specific change in FKBP5 methylation was associated with treatment response. This is the largest study to date investigating the role of HPA axis related genes in response to a psychological therapy. Furthermore, this is the first study to demonstrate that DNA methylation changes may be associated with response to psychological therapies in a genotype-dependent manner.

Adaptation of Rhizobium leguminosarum to pea, alfalfa and sugar beet rhizospheres investigated by comparative transcriptomics

Background The rhizosphere is the microbe-rich zone around plant roots and is a key determinant of the biosphere's productivity. Comparative transcriptomics was used to investigate general and plant-specific adaptations during rhizosphere colonization. Rhizobium leguminosarum biovar viciae was grown in the rhizospheres of pea (its legume nodulation host), alfalfa (a non-host legume) and sugar beet (non-legume). Gene expression data were compared to metabolic and transportome maps to understand adaptation to the rhizosphere. Results Carbon metabolism was dominated by organic acids, with a strong bias towards aromatic amino acids, C1 and C2 compounds. This was confirmed by induction of the glyoxylate cycle required for C2 metabolism and gluconeogenesis in all rhizospheres. Gluconeogenesis is repressed in R. leguminosarum by sugars, suggesting that although numerous sugar and putative complex carbohydrate transport systems are induced in the rhizosphere, they are less important carbon sources than organic acids. A common core of rhizosphere-induced genes was identified, of which 66% are of unknown function. Many genes were induced in the rhizosphere of the legumes, but not sugar beet, and several were plant specific. The plasmid pRL8 can be considered pea rhizosphere specific, enabling adaptation of R. leguminosarum to its host. Mutation of many of the up-regulated genes reduced competitiveness for pea rhizosphere colonization, while two genes specifically up-regulated in the pea rhizosphere reduced colonization of the pea but not alfalfa rhizosphere. Conclusions Comparative transcriptome analysis has enabled differentiation between factors conserved across plants for rhizosphere colonization as well as identification of exquisite specific adaptation to host plants.

Cognitive vulnerability to postnatal depressive symptomatology

Understanding the factors involved in the development of postpartum depressive disorders has important implications for the detection of women at risk, and the development of theory‐driven preventative treatments. In the current study, recent innovations in the assessment of idiographic cognitive functioning among adult, non‐pregnant samples were administered to a sample of healthy primiparous women to investigate their predictive utility in the onset of low mood following childbirth. Cognitive biases using autobiographical material, and the degree of self‐devaluation during brief episodes of naturally occurring low mood were assessed in 94 concurrently well women in the third trimester of their first pregnancy. The degree of depressive symptomatology at 2 and 8 weeks postpartum was assessed subsequently. Antenatal self‐devaluative tendencies and a lack of specificity in autobiographical retrieval were not associated with low mood in the initial weeks following delivery, when biological factors are believed to play an important role, but did predict depressive symptoms more distally at 8 weeks after childbirth. This relationship was demonstrated after controlling for educational level, variations in antenatal dysphoria, previous emotional difficulties, neuroticism and the woman's own experience of mothering. The theoretical and clinical implications of the findings are discussed.

Endothelial cell-specific ROS production increases susceptibility to aortic dissection

Background—Increased production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) throughout the vascular wall is a feature of cardiovascular disease states, but therapeutic strategies remain limited by our incomplete understanding of the role and contribution of specific vascular cell ROS to disease pathogenesis. To investigate the specific role of endothelial cell (EC) ROS in the development of structural vascular disease, we generated a mouse model of endothelium-specific Nox2 overexpression and tested the susceptibility to aortic dissection after angiotensin II (Ang II) infusion. Methods and Results—A specific increase in endothelial ROS production in Nox2 transgenic mice was sufficient to cause Ang II–mediated aortic dissection, which was never observed in wild-type mice. Nox2 transgenic aortas had increased endothelial ROS production, endothelial vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 expression, matrix metalloproteinase activity, and CD45+ inflammatory cell infiltration. Conditioned media from Nox2 transgenic ECs induced greater Erk1/2 phosphorylation in vascular smooth muscle cells compared with wild-type controls through secreted cyclophilin A (CypA). Nox2 transgenic ECs (but not vascular smooth muscle cells) and aortas had greater secretion of CypA both at baseline and in response to Ang II stimulation. Knockdown of CypA in ECs abolished the increase in vascular smooth muscle cell Erk1/2 phosphorylation conferred by EC conditioned media, and preincubation with CypA augmented Ang II–induced vascular smooth muscle cell ROS production. Conclusions—These findings demonstrate a pivotal role for EC-derived ROS in the determination of the susceptibility of the aortic wall to Ang II–mediated aortic dissection. ROS-dependent CypA secretion by ECs is an important signaling mechanism through which EC ROS regulate susceptibility of structural components of the aortic wall to aortic dissection.

Be careful how you ask! Using focus groups and nominal group technique to explore the barriers to learning

Schools have a legal duty to make reasonable adjustments for disabled pupils who experience barriers to learning. Inclusive approaches to data collection ensure that the needs of all children who are struggling are not overlooked. However, it is important that the methods promote sustained reflection on the part of all children, do not inadvertently accentuate differences between pupils, and do not allow individual needs to go unrecognized. This paper examines more closely the processes involved in using Nominal Group Technique to collect the views of children with and without a disability on the difficulties experienced in school. Data were collected on the process as well as the outcomes of using this technique to examine how pupil views are transformed from the individual to the collective, a process that involves making the private, public. Contrasts are drawn with questionnaire data, another method of data collection favoured by teachers. Although more time-efficient this can produce unclear and cursory responses. The views that surface from pupils need also to be seen within the context of the ways in which schools customize the data collection process and the ways in which the format and organization of the activity impact on the responses and responsiveness of the pupils.

Media damage following detergent sclerotherapy appears to be secondary to the induction of inflammation and apoptosis: an immunohistochemical study elucidating previous histological observations

Objective/Background: Traditionally, sclerotherapy has been thought to work by the cytotoxic effect of the sclerosant upon the endothelium alone. However, studies have shown that sclerotherapy is more successful in smaller veins than in larger veins. This could be explained by the penetration of the sclerosant, or its effect, into the media. This study aimed to investigate intimal and medial damage profiles after sclerosant treatment. Methods: Fresh human varicose veins were treated ex vivo with either 1% or 3% sodium tetradecyl sulphate (STS) for 1 or 10 minutes. The effect of the sclerosant on the vein wall was investigated by immunofluorescent labelling of transverse vein sections using markers for endothelium (CD31), smooth muscle (a-actin), apoptosis (p53) and inflammation (intercellular adhesion molecule-1 [ICAM-1]). Polidocanol (POL; 3%) treatment at 10 minutes was similarly investigated. Results: Endothelial cell death was concentration- and time-dependent for STS but incomplete for both sclerosants. Time, but not concentration, significantly affected cell death (p > .001). A 40% and 30% maximum reduction was observed for STS and POL, respectively. Destruction of 20e30% of smooth muscle cells was found up to 250 mm from the lumen after 3% STS treatment for 10 minutes. POL treatment for 10 minutes showed inferior destruction of medial cells. Following STS treatment and 24-hour tissue culture, p53 and ICAM-1 were upregulated to a depth of around 300 mm. This effect was not observed with POL. Conclusion: Inflammatory and apoptotic markers show the same distribution as medial cell death, implying that sclerotherapy with STS works by inducing apoptosis in the vein wall rather than having an effect restricted to the endothelium. Incomplete loss of endothelial cells and penetration of the sclerosant effect up to 250 mm into the media suggest that medial damage is crucial to the success of sclerotherapy and may explain why it is less effective in larger veins.

Behavioral economics, wearable devices, and cooperative games: results from a population-based intervention to increase physical activity

Background: Health care literature supports the development of accessible interventions that integrate behavioral economics, wearable devices, principles of evidence-based behavior change, and community support. However, there are limited real-world examples of large scale, population-based, member-driven reward platforms. Subsequently, a paucity of outcome data exists and health economic effects remain largely theoretical. To complicate matters, an emerging area of research is defining the role of Superusers, the small percentage of unusually engaged digital health participants who may influence other members. Objective: The objective of this preliminary study is to analyze descriptive data from GOODcoins, a self-guided, free-to-consumer engagement and rewards platform incentivizing walking, running and cycling. Registered members accessed the GOODcoins platform through PCs, tablets or mobile devices, and had the opportunity to sync wearables to track activity. Following registration, members were encouraged to join gamified group challenges and compare their progress with that of others. As members met challenge targets, they were rewarded with GOODcoins, which could be redeemed for planet- or people-friendly products. Methods: Outcome data were obtained from the GOODcoins custom SQL database. The reporting period was December 1, 2014 to May 1, 2015. Descriptive self-report data were analyzed using MySQL and MS Excel. Results: The study period includes data from 1298 users who were connected to an exercise tracking device. Females consisted of 52.6% (n=683) of the study population, 33.7% (n=438) were between the ages of 20-29, and 24.8% (n=322) were between the ages of 30-39. 77.5% (n=1006) of connected and active members met daily-recommended physical activity guidelines of 30 minutes, with a total daily average activity of 107 minutes (95% CI 90, 124). Of all connected and active users, 96.1% (n=1248) listed walking as their primary activity. For members who exchanged GOODcoins, the mean balance was 4,000 (95% CI 3850, 4150) at time of redemption, and 50.4% (n=61) of exchanges were for fitness or outdoor products, while 4.1% (n=5) were for food-related items. Participants were most likely to complete challenges when rewards were between 201-300 GOODcoins. Conclusions: The purpose of this study is to form a baseline for future research. Overall, results indicate that challenges and incentives may be effective for connected and active members, and may play a role in achieving daily-recommended activity guidelines. Registrants were typically younger, walking was the primary activity, and rewards were mainly exchanged for fitness or outdoor products. Remaining to be determined is whether members were already physically active at time of registration and are representative of healthy adherers, or were previously inactive and were incentivized to change their behavior. As challenges are gamified, there is an opportunity to investigate the role of superusers and healthy adherers, impacts on behavioral norms, and how cooperative games and incentives can be leveraged across stratified populations. Study limitations and future research agendas are discussed.

Attention bias to emotional faces varies by IQ and anxiety in Williams syndrome

Individuals with Williams syndrome (WS) often experience significant anxiety. A promising approach to anxiety intervention has emerged from cognitive studies of attention bias to threat. To investigate the utility of this intervention in WS, this study examined attention bias to happy and angry faces in individuals with WS (N=46). Results showed a significant difference in attention bias patterns as a function of IQ and anxiety. Individuals with higher IQ or higher anxiety showed a significant bias toward angry, but not happy faces, whereas individuals with lower IQ or lower anxiety showed the opposite pattern. These results suggest that attention bias interventions to modify a threat bias may be most effectively targeted to anxious individuals with WS with relatively high IQ.

Flight to quality? An investigation of changing price spreads in commercial real estate markets

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of the crisis on the pricing of asset quality attributes. This paper uses sales transaction data to examine whether flight from risk phenomena took place in the US office market during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Design/methodology/approach – Hedonic regression procedures are used to test the hypothesis that the spread between the pricing of low-quality and high-quality characteristics increased during the crisis period compared to the pre-crisis period. Findings – The results of the hedonic regression models suggest that the price spread between Class A and other properties grew significantly during the downturn. Research limitations/implications – Our results are consistent with the hypothesis of an increased price spread following a market downturn between Class A and non-Class A offices. The evidence suggests that the relationships between the returns on Class A and non-Class A assets changed during the period of market stress or crisis. Practical implications – These findings have implications for real estate portfolio construction. If regime switches can be predicted and/or responded to rapidly, portfolios may be rebalanced. In crisis periods, portfolios might be reweighted towards Class A properties and in positive market periods, the reweighting would be towards non-Class A assets. Social implications – The global financial crisis has demonstrated that real estate markets play a crucial role in modern economies and that negative developments in these markets have the potential to spillover and create contagion for the larger economy, thereby affecting jobs, incomes and ultimately people’s livelihoods. Originality/value – This is one of the first studies that address the flight to quality phenomenon in commercial real estate markets during periods of financial crisis and market turmoil.

Urinary metabolomic profiling to identify biomarkers of a flavonoid-rich and flavonoid-poor fruits and vegetables diet: the FLAVURS trial in adults: the FLAVURS trial

The present study aims to investigate the dose dependent effects of consuming diets enriched in flavonoid-rich and flavonoid-poor fruits and vegetables on the urine metabolome of adults who had a C1.5 fold increased risk of cardiovascular diseases. A single-blind, dose-dependent, parallel randomized controlled dietary intervention was conducted where volunteers (n = 126) were randomly assigned to one of three diets: high flavonoid diet, low flavonoid diet or habitual diet as a control for 18 weeks. High resolution LC– MS untargeted metabolomics with minimal sample cleanup was performed using an Orbitrap mass spectrometer. Putative biomarkers which characterize diets with high and low flavonoid content were selected by state-of-the-art data analysis strategies and identified by HR-MS and HR-MS/MS assays. Discrimination between diets was observed by application of two linear mixedmodels: one including a diet-time interaction effect and the second containing only a time effect. Valerolactones, phenolic acids and their derivatives were among sixteen biomarkers related to the high flavonoid dietary exposure. Four biomarkers related to the low flavonoid diet belonged to the family of phenolic acids. For the first time abscisic acid glucuronide was reported as a biomarker after a dietary intake, however its origins have to be examined by future hypothesis driven experiments using a more targeted approach. This metabolomic analysis has identified a number of dose dependent urinary biomarkers (i.e. proline betaine or iberin-N-acetyl cysteine), which can be used in future observation and intervention studies to assess flavonoids and nonflavonoid phenolic intakes and compliance to fruit and vegetable intervention.