Informing operational flood management with ensemble predictions: lessons from Sweden.

This paper highlights some communicative and institutional challenges to using ensemble prediction systems (EPS) in operational flood forecasting, warning, and civil protection. Focusing in particular on the Swedish experience, as part of the PREVIEW FP6 project, of applying EPS to operational flood forecasting, the paper draws on a wider set of site visits, interviews, and participant observation with flood forecasting centres and civil protection authorities (CPAs) in Sweden and 15 other European states to reflect on the comparative success of Sweden in enabling CPAs to make operational use of EPS for flood risk management. From that experience, the paper identifies four broader lessons for other countries interested in developing the operational capacity to make, communicate, and use EPS for flood forecasting and civil protection. We conclude that effective training and clear communication of EPS, while clearly necessary, are by no means sufficient to ensure effective use of EPS. Attention must also be given to overcoming the institutional obstacles to their use and to identifying operational choices for which EPS is seen to add value rather than uncertainty to operational decision making by CPAs.

Direct involvement, partnership and setting: a study in bounded diversity

This paper brings a comparative aspect to the analysis of direct involvement as the foundation for partnership. It considers how various forms of direct involvement can represent components of a broader partnership paradigm of people management, or a limited shallow partnership concession to facilitate the diffusion of top-down human resource management policies. Through the use of survey evidence, we explore the settings in which involvement is more likely to be encountered. Contrary to predictions in much of the literature as to their universal applicability, we found that they tended to be concentrated in specific locales, organisational types and sectors, as part and parcel of wider cooperative production paradigms; in practical terms, if involvement is a prerequisite for meaningful partnership, then the latter is more likely to be encountered in more coordinated varieties of capitalism. This does not suggest, however, that ‘shallow’ or instrumentalist partnerships do not occur, or that in infertile ground genuine partnerships are not possible. On one hand, national variations encountered were broadly on the lines of the literature on comparative capitalism. On the other hand, there was much diversity within national settings; we identify the contexts in which such engagement is more or less likely and consider the implications.

Direct soil moisture controls of future global soil carbon changes: An important source of uncertainty

The nature of the climate–carbon cycle feedback depends critically on the response of soil carbon to climate, including changes in moisture. However, soil moisture–carbon feedback responses have not been investigated thoroughly. Uncertainty in the response of soil carbon to soil moisture changes could arise from uncertainty in the relationship between soil moisture and heterotrophic respiration. We used twelve soil moisture–respiration functions (SMRFs) with a soil carbon model (RothC) and data from a coupled climate–carbon cycle general circulation model to investigate the impact of direct heterotrophic respiration dependence on soil moisture on the climate carbon cycle feedback. Global changes in soil moisture acted to oppose temperature‐driven decreases in soil carbon and hence tended to increase soil carbon storage. We found considerable uncertainty in soil carbon changes due to the response of soil respiration to soil moisture. The use of different SMRFs resulted in both large losses and small gains in future global soil carbon stocks, whether considering all climate forcings or only moisture changes. Regionally, the greatest range in soil carbon changes across SMRFs was found where the largest soil carbon changes occurred. Further research is needed to constrain the soil moisture–respiration relationship and thus reduce uncertainty in climate–carbon cycle feedbacks. There may also be considerable uncertainty in the regional responses of soil carbon to soil moisture changes since climate model predictions of regional soil moisture changes are less coherent than temperature changes.

Administrative costs of regulation and foreign direct investment: evidence from Standard Cost Model implementation in non-OECD countries

In recent years both developed and developing countries have experienced an increasing number of government initiatives dedicated to reducing the administrative costs (AC) imposed on businesses by regulation. We use a bi-linear fixed-effects model to analyze the extent to which government initiatives to reduce AC through the Standard Cost Model (SCM) attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) among 32 developing countries. Controlling for standard determinants of the SCM, we find that the SCM in most cases leads to higher FDI and that the benefits are more significant where the SCM has been implemented for a longer period.

Sensitivity of direct radiative forcing by mineral dust to particle characteristics

Airborne dust affects the Earth's energy balance — an impact that is measured in terms of the implied change in net radiation (or radiative forcing, in W m-2) at the top of the atmosphere. There remains considerable uncertainty in the magnitude and sign of direct forcing by airborne dust under current climate. Much of this uncertainty stems from simplified assumptions about mineral dust-particle size, composition and shape, which are applied in remote sensing retrievals of dust characteristics and dust-cycle models. Improved estimates of direct radiative forcing by dust will require improved characterization of the spatial variability in particle characteristics to provide reliable information dust optical properties. This includes constraints on: (1) particle-size distribution, including discrimination of particle subpopulations and quantification of the amount of dust in the sub-10 µm to <0.1 µm mass fraction; (2) particle composition, specifically the abundance of iron oxides, and whether particles consist of single or multi-mineral grains; (3) particle shape, including degree of sphericity and surface roughness, as a function of size and mineralogy; and (4) the degree to which dust particles are aggregated together. The use of techniques that measure the size, composition and shape of individual particles will provide a better basis for optical modelling.

The potential of 1 h refractivity changes from an operational C-band magnetron-based radar for numerical weather prediction validation and data assimilation

Refractivity changes (ΔN) derived from radar ground clutter returns serve as a proxy for near-surface humidity changes (1 N unit ≡ 1% relative humidity at 20 °C). Previous studies have indicated that better humidity observations should improve forecasts of convection initiation. A preliminary assessment of the potential of refractivity retrievals from an operational magnetron-based C-band radar is presented. The increased phase noise at shorter wavelengths, exacerbated by the unknown position of the target within the 300 m gate, make it difficult to obtain absolute refractivity values, so we consider the information in 1 h changes. These have been derived to a range of 30 km with a spatial resolution of ∼4 km; the consistency of the individual estimates (within each 4 km × 4 km area) indicates that ΔN errors are about 1 N unit, in agreement with in situ observations. Measurements from an instrumented tower on summer days show that the 1 h refractivity changes up to a height of 100 m remain well correlated with near-surface values. The analysis of refractivity as represented in the operational Met Office Unified Model at 1.5, 4 and 12 km grid lengths demonstrates that, as model resolution increases, the spatial scales of the refractivity structures improve. It is shown that the magnitude of refractivity changes is progressively underestimated at larger grid lengths during summer. However, the daily time series of 1 h refractivity changes reveal that, whereas the radar-derived values are very well correlated with the in situ observations, the high-resolution model runs have little skill in getting the right values of ΔN in the right place at the right time. This suggests that the assimilation of these radar refractivity observations could benefit forecasts of the initiation of convection.

Can polar lows be objectively identified and tracked in the ECMWF operational analysis and the ERA-Interim reanalysis?

Polar lows are maritime meso-cyclones associated with intense surface wind speeds and oceanic heat fluxes at high latitudes. The ability of the ERA-Interim (ERAI) reanalysis to represent polar lows in the North Atlantic is assessed by comparing ERAI and the ECMWF operational analysis for the period 2008-2011. First, the representation of a set of satellite observed polar lows over the Norwegian and Barents Seas in the operational analysis and ERAI is analysed. Then, the possibility of directly identifying and tracking the polar lows in the operational analysis and ERAI is explored using a tracking algorithm based on 850 hPa vorticity with objective identification criteria on cyclone dynamical intensity and atmospheric static stability. All but one of the satellite observed polar lows with a lifetime of at least 6 hours have an 850 hPa vorticity signature of a co-located mesocyclone in both the operational analysis and ERAI for most of their life cycles. However, the operational analysis has vorticity structures that better resemble the observed cloud patterns and stronger surface wind speed intensities compared to those in ERAI. By applying the objective identification criteria, about 55% of the satellite observed polar lows are identified and tracked in ERAI, while this fraction increases to about 70% in the operational analysis. Particularly in ERAI, the remaining observed polar lows are mainly not identified because they have too weak wind speed and vorticity intensity compared to the tested criteria. The implications of the tendency of ERAI to underestimate the polar low dynamical intensity for future studies of polar lows is discussed.

Direct anthelmintic effects of condensed tannins from diverse plant sources against Ascaris suum

Ascaris suum is one of the most prevalent nematode parasites in pigs and causes significant economic losses, and also serves as a good model for A. lumbricoides, the large roundworm of humans that is ubiquitous in developing countries and causes malnutrition, stunted growth and compromises immunity to other pathogens. New treatment options for Ascaris infections are urgently needed, to reduce reliance on the limited number of synthetic anthelmintic drugs. In areas where Ascaris infections are common, ethno-pharmacological practices such as treatment with natural plant extracts are still widely employed. However, scientific validation of these practices and identification of the active compounds are lacking, although observed effects are often ascribed to plant secondary metabolites such as tannins. Here, we extracted, purified and characterised a wide range of condensed tannins from diverse plant sources and investigated anthelmintic effects against A. suum in vitro. We show that condensed tannins can have potent, direct anthelmintic effects against A. suum, as evidenced by reduced migratory ability of newly hatched third-stage larvae and reduced motility and survival of fourth-stage larvae recovered from pigs. Transmission electron microscopy showed that CT caused significant damage to the cuticle and digestive tissues of the larvae. Furthermore, we provide evidence that the strength of the anthelmintic effect is related to the polymer size of the tannin molecule. Moreover, the identity of the monomeric structural units of tannin polymers may also have an influence as gallocatechin and epigallocatechin monomers exerted significant anthelmintic activity whereas catechin and epicatechin monomers did not. Therefore, our results clearly document direct anthelmintic effects of condensed tannins against Ascaris and encourage further in vivo investigation to determine optimal strategies for the use of these plant compounds for the prevention and/or treatment of ascariosis.

What next for children's services? Can policy at a local or national level have any significant impact on the outcomes for children and their families?

In England at both strategic and operational levels, policy-makers in the public sector have undertaken considerable work on implementing the findings of the Every Child Matters report and subsequently through the Children's Act 2004. Legislation has resulted in many local authorities seeking to implement more holistic approaches to the delivery of children's services. At a strategic level this is demonstrated by the creation of integrated directorate structures providing for a range of services, from education to children's social care. Such services were generally under the management of the Director of Children's Services, holding statutory responsibilities for the delivery of services formally divided into the three sectors of education, health and social services. At a national level, more fundamental policy developments have sought to establish a framework through which policy-makers can address the underlying causes of deprivation, vulnerability and inequality. The Child Poverty Act, 2010, which gained Royal Assent in 2010, provides for a clear intention to reduce the number of children in poverty, acknowledging that ‘the best way to eradicate child poverty is to address the causes of poverty, rather than only treat the symptoms’. However, whilst the policy objectives of both pieces of legislation hold positive aspirations for children and young people, a change of policy direction through a change of government in May 2010 seems to be in direct contrast to the intended focus of these aims. This paper explores the impact of new government policy on the future direction of children's services both at the national and local levels. At the national level, we question the ability of the government to deliver the aspirations of the Child Poverty Act, 2010, given the broad range of influences and factors that can determine the circumstances in which a child may experience poverty. We argue that poverty is not simply an issue of the pressure of financial deprivation, but that economic recession and cuts in government spending will further increase the number of children living in poverty.

Direct probing of photoinduced electron transfer in a self- assembled biomimetic [2Fe2S]-hydrogenase complex using ultrafast vibrational spectroscopy

A pyridyl-functionalized diiron dithiolate complex, [μ-(4-pyCH2−NMI-S2)Fe2(CO)6] (3, py = pyridine(ligand), NMI = naphthalene monoimide) was synthesized and fully characterized. In the presence of zinc tetraphenylporphyrin (ZnTPP), a self-assembled 3·ZnTPP complex was readily formed in CH2Cl2 by the coordination of the pyridyl nitrogen to the porphyrin zinc center. Ultrafast photoinduced electron transfer from excited ZnTPP to complex 3 in the supramolecular assembly was observed in real time by monitoring the ν(CO) and ν(CO)NMI spectral changes with femtosecond time-resolved infrared (TRIR) spectroscopy. We have confirmed that photoinduced charge separation produced the monoreduced species by comparing the time-resolved IR spectra with the conventional IR spectra of 3•− generated by reversible electrochemical reduction. The lifetimes for the charge separation and charge recombination processes were found to be τCS = 40 ± 3 ps and τCR = 205 ± 14 ps, respectively. The charge recombination is much slower than that in an analogous covalent complex, demonstrating the potential of a supramolecular approach to extend the lifetime of the chargeseparated state in photocatalytic complexes. The observed vibrational frequency shifts provide a very sensitive probe of the delocalization of the electron-spin density over the different parts of the Fe2S2 complex. The TR and spectro-electrochemical IR spectra, electron paramagnetic resonance spectra, and density functional theory calculations all show that the spin density in 3•− is delocalized over the diiron core and the NMI bridge. This delocalization explains why the complex exhibits low catalytic dihydrogen production even though it features a very efficient photoinduced electron transfer. The ultrafast porphyrin-to-NMIS2−Fe2(CO)6 photoinduced electron transfer is the first reported example of a supramolecular Fe2S2-hydrogenase model studied by femtosecond TRIR spectroscopy. Our results show that TRIR spectroscopy is a powerful tool to investigate photoinduced electron transfer in potential dihydrogen-producing catalytic complexes, and that way to optimize their performance by rational approaches.

Transdifferential and transintegral calculus

The set of transreal numbers is a superset of the real numbers. It totalises real arithmetic by defining division by zero in terms of three def- inite, non-finite numbers: positive infinity, negative infinity and nullity. Elsewhere, in this proceedings, we extended continuity and limits from the real domain to the transreal domain, here we extended the real derivative to the transreal derivative. This continues to demonstrate that transreal analysis contains real analysis and operates at singularities where real analysis fails. Hence computer programs that rely on computing deriva- tives { such as those used in scientific, engineering and financial applica- tions { are extended to operate at singularities where they currently fail. This promises to make software, that computes derivatives, both more competent and more reliable. We also extended the integration of absolutely convergent functions from the real domain to the transreal domain.

Challenges of operational river forecasting

Skillful and timely streamflow forecasts are critically important to water managers and emergency protection services. To provide these forecasts, hydrologists must predict the behavior of complex coupled human–natural systems using incomplete and uncertain information and imperfect models. Moreover, operational predictions often integrate anecdotal information and unmodeled factors. Forecasting agencies face four key challenges: 1) making the most of available data, 2) making accurate predictions using models, 3) turning hydrometeorological forecasts into effective warnings, and 4) administering an operational service. Each challenge presents a variety of research opportunities, including the development of automated quality-control algorithms for the myriad of data used in operational streamflow forecasts, data assimilation, and ensemble forecasting techniques that allow for forecaster input, methods for using human-generated weather forecasts quantitatively, and quantification of human interference in the hydrologic cycle. Furthermore, much can be done to improve the communication of probabilistic forecasts and to design a forecasting paradigm that effectively combines increasingly sophisticated forecasting technology with subjective forecaster expertise. These areas are described in detail to share a real-world perspective and focus for ongoing research endeavors.