Strategies for sequential prediction of stationary time series

We present simple procedures for the prediction of a real valued sequence. The algorithms are based on a combinationof several simple predictors. We show that if the sequence is a realization of a bounded stationary and ergodic random process then the average of squared errors converges, almost surely, to that of the optimum, given by the Bayes predictor. We offer an analog result for the prediction of stationary gaussian processes.

Decision-Making in Social Enterprises: Exploring the Link between Employee Participation and Organizational Commitment

This article studies the influence of the procedural justice resulting from participation in decision-making on employees' affective commitment in social enterprises. It also examines whether any potential link between participation and commitment is due to social exchange, as is the case with for-profit companies. The study is based on data from employees of French work integration social enterprises. The results confirm the positive relationship between procedural justice and affective commitment and the mediating role of perceived organizational support and leader-member exchanges. Managerial recommendations are then given to best maintain or increase employees' involvement in the decision-making processes of social enterprises.

Development and Validation of Decision Rules to Guide Frequency of Monitoring CD4 Cell Count in HIV-1 Infection before Starting Antiretroviral Therapy.

Background: Although CD4 cell count monitoring is used to decide when to start antiretroviral therapy in patients with HIV-1 infection, there are no evidence-based recommendations regarding its optimal frequency. It is common practice to monitor every 3 to 6 months, often coupled with viral load monitoring. We developed rules to guide frequency of CD4 cell count monitoring in HIV infection before starting antiretroviral therapy, which we validated retrospectively in patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.Methodology/Principal Findings: We built up two prediction rules ("Snap-shot rule" for a single sample and "Track-shot rule" for multiple determinations) based on a systematic review of published longitudinal analyses of CD4 cell count trajectories. We applied the rules in 2608 untreated patients to classify their 18 061 CD4 counts as either justifiable or superfluous, according to their prior >= 5% or < 5% chance of meeting predetermined thresholds for starting treatment. The percentage of measurements that both rules falsely deemed superfluous never exceeded 5%. Superfluous CD4 determinations represented 4%, 11%, and 39% of all actual determinations for treatment thresholds of 500, 350, and 200x10(6)/L, respectively. The Track-shot rule was only marginally superior to the Snap-shot rule. Both rules lose usefulness for CD4 counts coming near to treatment threshold.Conclusions/Significance: Frequent CD4 count monitoring of patients with CD4 counts well above the threshold for initiating therapy is unlikely to identify patients who require therapy. It appears sufficient to measure CD4 cell count 1 year after a count > 650 for a threshold of 200, > 900 for 350, or > 1150 for 500x10(6)/L, respectively. When CD4 counts fall below these limits, increased monitoring frequency becomes advisable. These rules offer guidance for efficient CD4 monitoring, particularly in resource-limited settings.

Evaluation cardiologique préopératoire avant chirurgie non cardiaque: du choix cornélien a l'arbre décisionnel [Pre-operative cardiac assessment in non-cardiac surgery: a frequent dilemma simplified by a decision tree].

In patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery, cardiac events are the most common cause of perioperative morbidity and mortality. It is often difficult to choose adequate cardiologic examinations before surgery. This paper, inspired by the guidelines of the European and American societies of cardiology (ESC, AHA, ACC), discusses the place of standard ECG, echocardiography, treadmill or bicycle ergometer and pharmacological stress testing in preoperative evaluations. The role of coronary angiography and prophylactic revascularization will also be discussed. Finally, we provide a decision tree which will be helpful to both general practitioners and specialists.

Assignment strategies for large proteins by magic-angle spinning NMR: the 21-kDa disulfide-bond-forming enzyme DsbA.

We present strategies for chemical shift assignments of large proteins by magic-angle spinning solid-state NMR, using the 21-kDa disulfide-bond-forming enzyme DsbA as prototype. Previous studies have demonstrated that complete de novo assignments are possible for proteins up to approximately 17 kDa, and partial assignments have been performed for several larger proteins. Here we show that combinations of isotopic labeling strategies, high field correlation spectroscopy, and three-dimensional (3D) and four-dimensional (4D) backbone correlation experiments yield highly confident assignments for more than 90% of backbone resonances in DsbA. Samples were prepared as nanocrystalline precipitates by a dialysis procedure, resulting in heterogeneous linewidths below 0.2 ppm. Thus, high magnetic fields, selective decoupling pulse sequences, and sparse isotopic labeling all improved spectral resolution. Assignments by amino acid type were facilitated by particular combinations of pulse sequences and isotopic labeling; for example, transferred echo double resonance experiments enhanced sensitivity for Pro and Gly residues; [2-(13)C]glycerol labeling clarified Val, Ile, and Leu assignments; in-phase anti-phase correlation spectra enabled interpretation of otherwise crowded Glx/Asx side-chain regions; and 3D NCACX experiments on [2-(13)C]glycerol samples provided unique sets of aromatic (Phe, Tyr, and Trp) correlations. Together with high-sensitivity CANCOCA 4D experiments and CANCOCX 3D experiments, unambiguous backbone walks could be performed throughout the majority of the sequence. At 189 residues, DsbA represents the largest monomeric unit for which essentially complete solid-state NMR assignments have so far been achieved. These results will facilitate studies of nanocrystalline DsbA structure and dynamics and will enable analysis of its 41-kDa covalent complex with the membrane protein DsbB, for which we demonstrate a high-resolution two-dimensional (13)C-(13)C spectrum.

Neoadjuvant and adjuvant strategies in renal cell carcinoma: more questions than answers.

The current standard treatment for early stage (I-III) renal cell cancer (RCC) is surgery. While the prognosis of stage I tumors is excellent, stage II and particularly stage III have a high risk of relapse. The adjuvant treatment of patients with RCC remains an area of investigation, with patient selection being a key aspect. There are currently two prognostic nomograms to establish the risk of relapse in patients with resected RCC. The results of earlier studies of adjuvant therapy, including the use chemotherapy and/or immunotherapy after nephrectomy have failed to show any benefit in the outcome of patients at risk of developing local recurrence or distant metastases. Two recent phase III trials with vaccines (autologous tumor cell vaccine and autologous tumor-derived heat shock protein peptide complex-96) have shown promising, albeit still preliminary, results. In the metastatic RCC setting, recent advances in the molecular understanding of oncogenic pathways have led to the development of new therapeutic strategies with the use of targeted therapies in the adjuvant setting. Neoadjuvant treatment is another treatment modality currently being evaluated for patients with early disease and in patients with metastatic RCC with inoperable primary tumors. The questions that remain unanswered include activity of these agents in early stages of the disease, patient selection, optimal start time of the adjuvant treatment, and finally, the optimal length of treatment.

Estimating Bayesian decision problems with heterogeneous priors

In many areas of economics there is a growing interest in how expertise andpreferences drive individual and group decision making under uncertainty. Increasingly, we wish to estimate such models to quantify which of these drive decisionmaking. In this paper we propose a new channel through which we can empirically identify expertise and preference parameters by using variation in decisionsover heterogeneous priors. Relative to existing estimation approaches, our \Prior-Based Identification" extends the possible environments which can be estimated,and also substantially improves the accuracy and precision of estimates in thoseenvironments which can be estimated using existing methods.

Perfil dos Turistas que Visitam a Ilha de São Vicente

O presente trabalho tem por objectivo definir o perfil do turista que visitou a ilha de São Vicente e avaliar o grau de satisfação do turista enquanto consumidor de diferentes bens e serviços, nos meses de Maio e Junho do decorrente ano. Para se fazer uma abordagem qualitativa falou-se da problemática do mercado turístico - procura e oferta turística – e a importância da segmentação desse sistema turístico juntamente com algumas teorias do comportamento do consumidor. Por sua vez, para o estudo do perfil e satisfação dos turistas utilizou-se uma abordagem quantitativa, através da aplicação de questionários no Aeroporto Internacional Cesária Évora e entrevistas aos estabelecimentos hoteleiros, 150 e 7 respectivamente. Após a análise explicativa, com base na bibliografia seleccionada, nas entrevistas e questionários realizados, os resultados da pesquisa indicam que estudar o perfil e a satisfação dos turistas permite fazer um levantamento de diversas variáveis importantes como, por exemplo, a nacionalidade do turista, a principal razão e objectivo da viagem e o que gostaram, ou desejavam ver no destino. E assim, entender-se o perfil do visitante e propor-se estratégias, que contribuam para um planeamento sustentável do desenvolvimento turístico na região pretendida. A complexidade do processo de decisão do turista por um ou outro destino é que verdadeiramente motiva esta pesquisa. The objective of the following work is to define the profile of a tourist that visited São Vicente, and evaluate the levels of satisfaction of the tourist as a consumer of different items and services, on May and June of the current year. For a quality methodological approach, the problematic of the touristic industry (demand and touristic offer) – the essential of subdivision of these touristic systems alongside with the principles of the consumer behavior were discussed. In continuity, to define the profile and satisfaction of the tourists, a quantity approach was also used, through the application of questionnaires at the International Airport Cesária Évora and interviews throughout hotel establishments, 150 and 7 respectively. After an explanatory analyses, based on a selected bibliography, the applied interviews and questionnaires, the outcome of this research shows that by studying the profile and the satisfaction of the tourists allows to have variable important results, for example, the tourist´s nationality, the main reason and objective of the trip and what they enjoyed or would like to see on their destination. Thus, understanding the visitor´s profile and suggesting strategies, that contributes for a sustainable planning of a touristic development on the intended region. The process complexity of the decision making of the tourist for one destination is truly the main motivation for this research.

A general class of adaptative strategies

We exhibit and characterize an entire class of simple adaptive strategies,in the repeated play of a game, having the Hannan-consistency property: In the long-run, the player is guaranteed an average payoff as large as the best-reply payoff to the empirical distribution of play of the otherplayers; i.e., there is no "regret." Smooth fictitious play (Fudenberg and Levine [1995]) and regret-matching (Hart and Mas-Colell [1998]) areparticular cases. The motivation and application of this work come from the study of procedures whose empirical distribution of play is, in thelong-run, (almost) a correlated equilibrium. The basic tool for the analysis is a generalization of Blackwell's [1956a] approachability strategy for games with vector payoffs.

Melanin-based colouration predicts natal dispersal in the barn owl, Tyto alba

Searching for a suitable breeding site is an important decision in the life of most animals. The decisions where to settle and how far to travel before doing so depend on many factors. Individual differences in dispersal distance could result from different strategies (e.g. specialists versus generalists), which might result in similar reproductive success in different habitats, or different competitive abilities to acquire a territory close to the natal site. The barn owl is polymorphic in melanic coloration, which is associated with many physiological and behavioural traits such as habitat choice, stress response and docility, raising the possibility that the coloration is also related to dispersal. We studied natal dispersal (from rearing site to site of first breeding attempt) and breeding dispersal (from one breeding site to the next) in barn owls using a long-term data set. Darker reddish individuals moved further than paler individuals during natal dispersal, but not during breeding dispersal. A cross-fostering experiment showed that the colour of the biological and foster parents had no influence on dispersal distance. The distance dispersed by parents and same-sex offspring was correlated, whereas natal and breeding dispersal were not repeatable within individuals, indicating that they are two different processes. Given that the distance travelled in natal dispersal appears to be heritable, the underlying genes might be coupled to those related to coloration. We discuss hypotheses to explain the potential adaptive function of the link between coloration and natal dispersal.

Effect of Emotion and Personality on Deviation from Purely Rational Decision-Making

Human decision-making has consistently demonstrated deviation from "pure" rationality. Emotions are a primary driver of human actions and the current study investigates how perceived emotions and personality traits may affect decision-making during the Ultimatum Game (UG). We manipulated emotions by showing images with emotional connotation while participants decided how to split money with a second player. Event-related potentials (ERPs) from scalp electrodes were recorded during the whole decision-making process. We observed significant differences in the activity of central and frontal areas when participants offered money with respect to when they accepted or rejected an offer. We found that participants were more likely to offer a higher amount of money when making their decision in association with negative emotions. Furthermore, participants were more likely to accept offers when making their decision in association with positive emotions. Honest, conscientious, and introverted participants were more likely to accept offers. Our results suggest that factors others than a rational strategy may predict economic decision-making in the UG.

Econometrics and decision making: Effects of presentation mode

Much of empirical economics involves regression analysis. However, does thepresentation of results affect economists ability to make inferences for decision makingpurposes? In a survey, 257 academic economists were asked to make probabilisticinferences on the basis of the outputs of a regression analysis presented in a standardformat. Questions concerned the distribution of the dependent variable conditional onknown values of the independent variable. However, many respondents underestimateduncertainty by failing to take into account the standard deviation of the estimatedresiduals. The addition of graphs did not substantially improve inferences. On the otherhand, when only graphs were provided (i.e., with no statistics), respondents weresubstantially more accurate. We discuss implications for improving practice in reportingresults of regression analyses.