A hazai vállalatok elektronikus beszerzés iránti nyitottsága = E-procurement Responsiveness of the Hungarian Companies’

A Versenyképesség Kutató Központ 2004-ben a „Versenyben a világgal 1995-97.” kutatási program és az 1999-es vállalati versenyképességi kérdőíves felmérés hagyományait folytatva, valamint azok tapasztalataira építve egy hároméves kutatási programot kezdett el „Versenyben a világgal 2004-2006 − Gazdasági versenyképességünk vállalati nézőpontból” címmel. A kérdőíves felmérés nyomán létrejött adatbázist elemeztük hasonló témában 2005-ben. A korábbi eredményeken okulva, a kérdőív-elemzés kiterjesztésével azt kívántuk felmérni, hogy az elektronikus beszerzés iránti nyitottság növekedett-e hazánkban, illetve milyen egyéb összefüggések fedezhetők fel a beszerzési szervezet, a beszerzés vállalati kapcsolatai, valamint az elektronikus beszerzés értelmezésében az egyes válaszadóknál. A kutatás továbbra is eltér a hagyományos megoldásoktól, azaz nem kívánja vizsgálni a hazai vállalati honlapok elterjedtségét, azonban a korábbiaktól eltérően több információ-technológiával kapcsolatos információt kíván a válaszadóktól. A cél, tehát belső vállalati folyamatok, vevő-szállító kapcsolatok, az informatikai háttér elektronikus beszerzéssel való kapcsolatának feltárása és következtetéseink levonása volt annak érdekében, hogy megtudjuk milyen hatékonyságnövelési lehetőséget hordoz az elektronikus beszerzés és a hazai információs társadalmi fejlettség figyelembe vételével mennyire nyitottak erre a beszerzők és a pályázók egyaránt. Az elektronikus beszerzés és versenyképesség kapcsolata különösen a 2000-es éves eleje óta foglalkoztatja a kutatókat. Vita az elektronikus beszerzés beszerzési költségre gyakorolt hatásában, valamint a kormányzati politika által gyakorolt hatás jellegében van, melyet a közbeszerzés mint speciálisan szabályozott beszerzési tevékenység és az e-beszerzés kapcsolatára fejt ki. A vállalatok versenyképességének és az elektronikus beszerzés folyamatosan bővülő és fejlődő eszközrendszerének kapcsolata azonban nem kérdéses, ezt kutatási eredményeink is megerősítik. _________ The Competitiveness Research Center based on the experience of the „ In Global Competition 1995-1997” research programme and continuing the company competitiveness survey (1999) has begun a three-year research programme with the following title: „In Global Competition 2004-2006” Our economic competitiveness, company point of view”. We had analyzed a database generated on the basis of a questionnaire survey with a similar theme in 2005. Drawing the lessons from earlier researches and expanding the questionnaire examination, we now seek to find out how far receptiveness to electronic procurement has increased in Hungary and what other relations can be observed in responses concerning the interpretation of procurement organizations, the corporate aspects of procurement and electronic procurement. The new research project continues to differ from traditional solutions insofar as it does not intend to examine the currency of corporate web pages, but, in contrast to earlier practice, it does want responders to provide information on IT technology. The objectives are thus to understand how electronic procurement relates to corporate processes, purchaser-supplier relations and IT base, and to see what opportunities of increasing efficiency there are in electronic procurement and how far procurers and bidders are open to this at the level of information society development in Hungary. Researchers have focused on the relation between electronic procurement and competitiveness since the early 2000s. What is debated is how electronic procurement influences procurement costs, and how government policies influence the relation between public procurement as a specially regulated procurement activity and electronic procurement. The relation between corporate competitiveness and the continually increasing means of electronic procurement is beyond doubt, evidenced by our research findings.

Devizás tételek értékelése. A számviteli szabályozás és a gazdálkodók döntéseinek összefüggései (Exchange differences from accounting perspective – regulation and business decision)

Az elmúlt években hazánkban a svájcifrank- és a japánjen-alapú hitelezés gyakorlatilag megszűnt, a devizaalapú hitelek folyósításának feltételei szigorodtak, a már meglévő portfólió romlott, a hitelezők által elszenvedett veszteség megnőtt. A számviteli előírások azonban alig változtak, azaz a jelenlegi szabályozás képes a számviteli törvény által alapvető célként megjelölt megbízható és valós kép bemutatására. A számviteli megközelítés szerint a deviza- és a devizaalapú ügyletek között nincs lényegi különbség, az aktiválási, értékelési, valamint értékvesztés-képzési szabályok megegyeznek. A probléma nagyságrendjének bemutatása után ismertetem a devizás vagyonrészek értékelésével kapcsolatos szabályok változását azok indokaival együtt. Ezután bemutatom a különféle alkalmazott árfolyamok hatásait a beszámolóra, s az alkalmazható árfolyamok és a mérlegben megjelenő devizapozíciók összefüggéseit. A devizás követelésekre képzendő értékvesztés témakörben bemutatom az év végi zárási feladatok sorrendjét, valamint a deviza- és a devizaalapú ügyletek értékvesztése közötti különbségeket is. _______ Loan fi nancing in Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen has disappeared in the last few years, fi nancing in foreign currency has become more diffi cult, while the actual loan portfolio has worsened, losses born by fi nancial institutions have increased. Despite this, the accounting prescriptions have hardly changed, which can be seen as if the current regulation is able to provide the fair and true picture. According to the accounting approach, there is no material difference between FX and FX-denominated deals: rules on the recognition in the balance sheet, valuation and loan loss provisions are identical. In this article – after highlighting the magnitude of the problem -, I introduce the changes in the rules regarding items in foreign currency and the reasons behind those changes. In the next part, I investigate the impact of application of different FX rates on the fi nancial statement and their correspondence with the FX-position reported in the Balance sheet. Later, I discuss the adequate order of the periodical accounting closing tasks, and the differences between impairment of receivables to be settled and denominated in foreign currency, or only denominated in FX with Forint Cash Flow.

Magyar alkalmazkodás az Európai Unió monetáris együttműködéséhez - tanulságok (Hungarian adaption to the monetary cooperation)

A cikk röviden összefoglalja az optimális valutaövezetek elméletének fejlődési állomásait, miközben felvet néhány kérdést a 2008-ban kezdődött válsággal kapcsolatban. Ezt követően áttekinti az elmélet és a válság által felvetett problémákra a gazdasági és monetáris unió által adott válaszokat. Végül az elmélet, az európai szabályozás aktuális állapota és a hazai tapasztalatok, lehetőségek tükrében megvizsgálja, hogy a jelenlegi helyzetben Magyarországnak milyen érdekei és ellenérdekei fűződhetnek az euró bevezetéséhez. Az írás kísérletet tesz arra, hogy kijelölje a hazai gazdaságpolitika kívánatos irányvonalát. _______ The article briefly summarizes the developments of the optimum currency area (OCA) theory, while states some questions regarding the crises starting in 2008. Secondly, it reviews the solutions given by the economic and monetary union to the problems raised by the OCA theory and the crisis. Thirdly, it evaluates the pros and cons for Hungary to introduce the euro as its own currency in the light of the OCA theory, the state of the European legislation and the Hungarian track record and possibilities. Finally, it shows the desired direction for the official Hungarian economic and financial policy.

The Reverse Balassa–Samuelson Effect in the Euro Zone

The debt crisis of the eurozone revealed a structural problem of the single market. The single currency created a pegged foreign exchange system among the euro member states. Thus, the less competitive countries can not improve their wage competitiveness through devaluation, but are motivated to extend the current consumption as the single central bank rate and the zone stability created cheap debt financing. The paper overviews the process of Reverse Balassa-Samuelson effect to explain the importance of external imbalance in the debt crisis.

Some fairytales about risk management

When I started writing this paper, I thought I would only be writing about the parallel between the mathematical theory of inventory and production – as a familiar model of operations research – and liquidity management. And then during the writing process, predictably enough I must say, the scandals surrounding the Buda-Cash and Quaestor brokerages erupted. Likewise in this period, the debate about foreign currency lending gained fresh impetus; about who made which mistakes when, or whether there was anyone who didn’t make mistakes. The most surprising twist revealed in the Buda-Cash and Quaestor cases – beyond alleged losses running into several hundreds of billions of forints – was that all this could be accumulated in 15 years of selfless effort. And even if this information proves to be comment born of initial over-excitement, it still demands an explanation one way or another. If it’s true, then how can this be? And if it isn’t, then what made it appear as if this is what happened? The questions and contradictions are obvious. But the main questions are these: What do risk managers actually do? What do we pay them for? And how far can we trust them?

Exchange rate overvaluation under hyperinflation: The case of Peru

This dissertation examines the behavior of the exchange rate under two different scenarios. The first one is characterized by, relatively, low inflation or a situation where prices adjust sluggishly. The second is a high inflation economy where prices respond very rapidly even to unanticipated shocks. In the first one, following a monetary expansion, the exchange rate overshoots, i.e. the nominal exchange rate depreciates at a faster pace than the price level. Under high levels of inflation, prices change faster than the exchange rate so the exchange rate undershoots its long run equilibrium value.^ The standard work in this area, Dornbusch (1976), explains the overshooting process in the context of perfect capital mobility and sluggish adjustment in the goods market. A monetary expansion will make the exchange rate increase beyond its long run equilibrium value. This dissertation expands on Dornbusch's model and provides an analysis of the exchange rate under conditions of currency substitution and price flexibility, characteristics of the Peruvian economy during the hyper inflation process that took place at the end of the 1980's. The results of the modified Dornbusch model reveal that, given a monetary expansion, the change in the price level will be larger than the change in the exchange rate if prices react more than proportionally to the monetary shock.^ We will expect this over-reaction in circumstances of high inflation when the velocity of money is increasing very rapidly. Increasing velocity of money, gives rise to a higher relative price variability which in turn contributes to the appearance of new financial (and also non-financial) instruments that report a higher return than the exchange rate, causing people to switch their demand for foreign exchange to this new assets. In the context of currency substitution, economic agents hoard and use foreign exchange as a store of value. The big decline in output originated by hyper inflation induces people to sell this hoarded money to finance current expenses, increasing the supply of foreign exchange in the market. Both, the decrease in demand and the increase in supply reduce the price of foreign exchange i.e. the real exchange rate. The findings mentioned above are tested using Peruvian data for the period January 1985-July 1990, the results of the econometric estimation confirm our findings in the theoretical model. ^

Correlation of detector dog alerts to cocaine decomposition products found in illicit forensic specimens

The volatile chemicals which comprise the odor of the illicit drug cocaine have been analyzed by adsorption onto activated charcoal followed by solvent elution and GC/MS analysis. A series of field tests have been performed to determine the dominant odor compound to which dogs alert. All of our data to date indicate that the dominant odor is due to the presence of methyl benzoate which is associated with the cocaine, rather than the cocaine itself. When methyl benzoate and cocaine are spiked onto U.S. currency, the threshold level of methyl benzoate required for a canine to signal an alert is typically 1-10 $\mu$g. Humans have been shown to have a sensitivity similar to dogs for methyl benzoate but with poorer selectivity/reliability. The dominant decomposition pathway for cocaine has been evaluated at elevated temperatures (up to 280$\sp\circ$C). Benzoic acid, but no detectable methyl benzoate, is formed. Solvent extraction and SFE were used to study the recovery of cocaine from U.S. currency. The amount of cocaine which could be recovered was found to decrease with time. ^

Essays on financial crises

This dissertation analyzes recent financial crises in developed and developing countries. The research emphasizes the effects of institutional factors on the international banking and currency crises and their output losses. ^ Chapter two examines the roles of regulation, supervision, and countries' institutional environment in determining the probability of banking crises for a panel of fifteen developed countries from 1975 to 1998. The results from a multivariate logit model indicated that countries with greater government involvement, less capital standard requirements, and lower lending limits on a single borrower are associated with a higher probability of banking crises. ^ Chapter three studies whether output loss in banking crisis differs in market-based or bank-based financial systems. Using existing banking crisis data for sixty-nine countries during 1970–1999, we investigate whether the underlying financial system affects the output loss. The results show that output losses are more serious in market-based economies than those in bank-based economies. Longer crisis duration tends to increase the output losses in banking crises. Finally, countries with deposit insurance and strict law enforcement have less output losses. ^ Chapter four uses macroeconomic and institutional measures to explain the extent of exchange rate depreciation and the decline in stock prices for emerging countries affected by the Mexican currency crisis of 1994–95. The results show that countries with more government budget deficits, and worse reserve adequacies tend to experience large exchange rate depreciation. The institutional measures do not explain much the extent of both the exchange rate depreciation and the decline in stock prices. ^

Genetic algorithms and investment strategies: A global perspective

The profitability of momentum portfolios in the equity markets is derived from the continuation of stock returns over medium time horizons. The empirical evidence of momentum, however, is significantly different across markets around the world. The purpose of this dissertation is to: (1) help global investors determine the optimal selection and holding periods for momentum portfolios, (2) evaluate the profitability of the optimized momentum portfolios in different time periods and market states, (3) assess the investment strategy profits after considering transaction costs, and (4) interpret momentum returns within the framework of prior studies on investors’ behavior. Improving on the traditional practice of selecting arbitrary selection and holding periods, a genetic algorithm (GA) is employed. The GA performs a thorough and structured search to capture the return continuations and reversals patterns of momentum portfolios. Three portfolio formation methods are used: price momentum, earnings momentum, and earnings and price momentum and a non-linear optimization procedure (GA). The focus is on common equity of the U.S. and a select number of countries, including Australia, France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The findings suggest that the evolutionary algorithm increases the annualized profits of the U.S. momentum portfolios. However, the difference in mean returns is statistically significant only in certain cases. In addition, after considering transaction costs, both price and earnings and price momentum portfolios do not appear to generate abnormal returns. Positive risk-adjusted returns net of trading costs are documented solely during “up” markets for a portfolio long in prior winners only. The results on the international momentum effects indicate that the GA improves the momentum returns by 2 to 5% on an annual basis. In addition, the relation between momentum returns and exchange rate appreciation/depreciation is examined. The currency appreciation does not appear to influence significantly momentum profits. Further, the influence of the market state on momentum returns is not uniform across the countries considered. The implications of the above findings are discussed with a focus on the practical aspects of momentum investing, both in the U.S. and globally.

Brazil Under Dilma Rousseff: Similar Policy Directions Maintained.

It is unlikely that the newly elected government of Dilma Rousseff will make any fundamental changes to the major imperatives that underlie Brazilian policy: that is, macroeconomic stability and poverty alleviation. These policy imperatives have set the country on the road to good governance and have provided former presidents a chance to claim continuity. While President Rousseff of the Worker’s Party (PT) may have a distinct style, personality, and set of leadership skills compared to her predecessors, she is expected to maintain the core macroeconomic stability and social policies that are currently in place. Many who expected Rousseff to be former president Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva’s carbon copy are discovering that from day one she has showcased a different governing style than her mentor. She has emphasized her commanding authority and has brought about fresh approaches to delicate matters, which entail domestic economic issues and foreign policy. For example, her administration has aggressively applied a set of macro-prudential measures to counter inflationary pressures on the Brazilian currency (Real). And in foreign policy, she has steadfastly recalibrated Itamarity’s stance on the controversial issues, such as Iran, and now appears to have refocused its short-term efforts on cementing Brazil’s leadership role in the region’s southern cone.

Risks to Hospitality Firms in the International Arena

Much potential for growth in hospitality firms exists in foreign countries, but expansion abroad typicality bears additional risks that could be detrimental to the operations. The authors explore those risks, currency exchange risk, and country risk, and offer practical techniques to access, manage, control, and reduce them. Deriving benefits from global opportunities requires effective management of these areas

Managing International Hospitality

To understand today's hospitality industry, executives need to recognize its international dimension. In this, the first part of a two-part article on the international dimension of hospitality, the author considers the forces driving hospitality's internationalization, the advantages drawing foreign investment into the North American market, and the patterns of expansion of American firms in overseas markets. The article is excerpted from Introduction to Management in the Hospitality Industry, New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1992.

Historical analysis of two contemporary issues at the International Community School of Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire: Local -hired and overseas -hired teacher relationships. Community perceptions of the U.S. Embassy at ICSA

This study was a qualitative investigation to ascertain and describe two of the current issues at the International Community School of Abidjan, examine their historical bases, and analyze their impact on the school environment.^ Two issues emerged during the inquiry phase of this study: (1) the relationship between local-hired and overseas-hired teachers in light of the January 1994 devaluation which polarized the staff by negating a four-year salary scale that established equity, (2) the school community's wide variance in the perceived power that the U.S. Embassy has on school operations based on its role as ICSA's founding sponsor.^ A multiple studies approach was used in gathering data. An extensive examination of the school's archives was used to reconstruct an historical overview of ICSA. An initial questionnaire was distributed to teachers and administrators at an educational conference to determine the scope of the 1994 devaluation of the West and Central African CFA and its impact on school personnel in West African American-sponsored overseas schools (ASOS). Personal interviews were conducted with the school staff, administration, school board members, and relevant historical participants to determine the principal issues at ICSA at that time. The researcher, an overseas-hired teacher, also used participant observations to collect data. Findings based on these sources were used to analyze the two issues from an historical perspective and to form conclusions.^ Findings in this study pertaining to the events induced by the French and African governments' decision to implement a currency devaluation in January 1994 were presented in ex post-facto chronological narrative form to describe the events which transpired, describe the perception of school personnel involved in these events, examine the final resolution and interpret these events within a historical framework for analysis.^ The topic of the U.S. Embassy and its role at ICSA emerged inductively from open-ended personal interviews conducted over the course of a year. Contradictory perspectives were examined and researched for accuracy and cause. The results of this inquiry presented the U.S. Embassy role at ICSA from a two-sided perspective, examined the historical role of the Embassy, and presented means by which the role and responsibility of the U.S. Embassy could best be communicated to the school community.^ The final chapter provides specific actions for mediation of problems stemming from these issues, implications for administrators and teachers currently involved in overseas schools or considering the possibility, and suggestions for future inquiries.^ Examination of a two-tier salary scale for local-hired and overseas-hired teachers generated the following recommendations: movement towards a single salary scale when feasible, clearly stated personnel policies and full disclosure of benefits, a uniform certification standard, professional development programs and awareness of the impact of this issue on staff morale.^ Divergent perceptions and attitudes toward the role of the U.S. Embassy produced these recommendations: a view towards limiting the number of Americans on ASOS school boards, open school board meetings, selection of Embassy Administrative Officers who can educate school communities on the exact role of the Embassy, educating parents through the outreach activities that communicate American educational philosophy and involve all segments of the international community, and a firm effort on the part of the ASOS to establish the school's autonomy from special interests. ^

Genetic Algorithms and Investment Strategies: A Global Perspective

The profitability of momentum portfolios in the equity markets is derived from the continuation of stock returns over medium time horizons. The empirical evidence of momentum, however, is significantly different across markets around the world. The purpose of this dissertation is to: 1) help global investors determine the optimal selection and holding periods for momentum portfolios, 2) evaluate the profitability of the optimized momentum portfolios in different time periods and market states, 3) assess the investment strategy profits after considering transaction costs, and 4) interpret momentum returns within the framework of prior studies on investors’ behavior. Improving on the traditional practice of selecting arbitrary selection and holding periods, a genetic algorithm (GA) is employed. The GA performs a thorough and structured search to capture the return continuations and reversals patterns of momentum portfolios. Three portfolio formation methods are used: price momentum, earnings momentum, and earnings and price momentum and a non-linear optimization procedure (GA). The focus is on common equity of the U.S. and a select number of countries, including Australia, France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The findings suggest that the evolutionary algorithm increases the annualized profits of the U.S. momentum portfolios. However, the difference in mean returns is statistically significant only in certain cases. In addition, after considering transaction costs, both price and earnings and price momentum portfolios do not appear to generate abnormal returns. Positive risk-adjusted returns net of trading costs are documented solely during “up” markets for a portfolio long in prior winners only. The results on the international momentum effects indicate that the GA improves the momentum returns by 2 to 5% on an annual basis. In addition, the relation between momentum returns and exchange rate appreciation/depreciation is examined. The currency appreciation does not appear to influence significantly momentum profits. Further, the influence of the market state on momentum returns is not uniform across the countries considered. The implications of the above findings are discussed with a focus on the practical aspects of momentum investing, both in the U.S. and globally.

The Conversation: Why leaving the euro is back on the agenda in the Greek election

Greece leaving the euro is old news. Since the former Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, agreed to a third bailout in July, the perception of Grexit as an immediate threat has subsided – or at least disappeared from commentary. Nonetheless, while appetite for Grexit outside Greece has abated, the traumatic seven months of wrangling over its bailout with Europe produced a significant domestic demand for a return to the national currency.