982 resultados para crop forecast


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The introduction of cover crops in the intercrop period may provide a broad range of ecosystem services derived from the multiple functions they can perform, such as erosion control, recycling of nutrients or forage source. However, the achievement of these services in a particular agrosystem is not always required at the same time or to the same degree. Thus, species selection and definition of targeted objectives is critical when growing cover crops. The goal of the current work was to describe the traits that determine the suitability of five species (barley, rye, triticale, mustard and vetch) for cover cropping. A field trial was established during two seasons (October to April) in Madrid (central Spain). Ground cover and biomass were monitored at regular intervals during each growing season. A Gompertz model characterized ground cover until the decay observed after frosts, while biomass was fitted to Gompertz, logistic and linear-exponential equations. At the end of the experiment, carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and fibre (neutral detergent, acid and lignin) contents, and the N fixed by the legume were determined. The grasses reached the highest ground cover (83–99%) and biomass (1226–1928 g/m2) at the end of the experiment. With the highest C:N ratio (27–39) and dietary fibre (527–600 mg/g) and the lowest residue quality (~680 mg/g), grasses were suitable for erosion control, catch crop and fodder. The vetch presented the lowest N uptake (2·4 and 0·7 g N/m2) due to N fixation (9·8 and 1·6 g N/m2) and low biomass accumulation. The mustard presented high N uptake in the warm year and could act as a catch crop, but low fodder capability in both years. The thermal time before reaching 30% ground cover was a good indicator of early coverage species. Variable quantification allowed finding variability among the species and provided information for further decisions involving cover crop selection and management.

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This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development.

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The effect of atmospheric aerosols and regional haze from air pollution on the yields of rice and winter wheat grown in China is assessed. The assessment is based on estimates of aerosol optical depths over China, the effect of these optical depths on the solar irradiance reaching the earth’s surface, and the response of rice and winter wheat grown in Nanjing to the change in solar irradiance. Two sets of aerosol optical depths are presented: one based on a coupled, regional climate/air quality model simulation and the other inferred from solar radiation measurements made over a 12-year period at meteorological stations in China. The model-estimated optical depths are significantly smaller than those derived from observations, perhaps because of errors in one or both sets of optical depths or because the data from the meteorological stations has been affected by local pollution. Radiative transfer calculations using the smaller, model-estimated aerosol optical depths indicate that the so-called “direct effect” of regional haze results in an ≈5–30% reduction in the solar irradiance reaching some of China’s most productive agricultural regions. Crop-response model simulations suggest an ≈1:1 relationship between a percentage increase (decrease) in total surface solar irradiance and a percentage increase (decrease) in the yields of rice and wheat. Collectively, these calculations suggest that regional haze in China is currently depressing optimal yields of ≈70% of the crops grown in China by at least 5–30%. Reducing the severity of regional haze in China through air pollution control could potentially result in a significant increase in crop yields and help the nation meet its growing food demands in the coming decades.

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Two novel type I ribosome-inactivating proteins (RIPs) were found in the storage roots of Mirabilis expansa, an underutilized Andean root crop. The two RIPs, named ME1 and ME2, were purified to homogeneity by ammonium sulfate precipitation, cation-exchange perfusion chromatography, and C4 reverse-phase chromatography. The two proteins were found to be similar in size (27 and 27.5 kD) by sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis, and their isoelectric points were determined to be greater than pH 10.0. Amino acid N-terminal sequencing revealed that both ME1 and ME2 had conserved residues characteristic of RIPs. Amino acid composition and western-blot analysis further suggested a structural similarity between ME1 and ME2. ME2 showed high similarity to the Mirabilis jalapa antiviral protein, a type I RIP. Depurination of yeast 26S rRNA by ME1 and ME2 demonstrated their ribosome-inactivating activity. Because these two proteins were isolated from roots, their antimicrobial activity was tested against root-rot microorganisms, among others. ME1 and ME2 were active against several fungi, including Pythium irregulare, Fusarium oxysporum solani, Alternaria solani, Trichoderma reesei, and Trichoderma harzianum, and an additive antifungal effect of ME1 and ME2 was observed. Antibacterial activity of both ME1 and ME2 was observed against Pseudomonas syringae, Agrobacterium tumefaciens, Agrobacterium radiobacter, and others.

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Plant genome research is needed as the foundation for an entirely new level of efficiency and success in the application of genetics and breeding to crop plants and products from crop plants. Genetic improvements in crop plants beyond current capabilities are needed to meet the growing world demand not only for more food, but also a greater diversity of food, higher-quality food, and safer food, produced on less land, while conserving soil, water, and genetic resources. Plant biology research, which is poised for dramatic advances, also depends fundamentally on plant genome research. The current Arabidopsis Genome Project has proved of immediate value to plant biology research, but a much greater effort is needed to ensure the full benefits of plant biology and especially plant genome research to agriculture. International cooperation is critical, both because genome projects are too large for any one country and the information forthcoming is of benefit to the world and not just the countries that do the work. Recent research on grass genomes has revealed that, because of extensive senteny and colinearity within linkage groups that make up the chromosomes, new information on the genome of one grass can be used to understand the genomes and predict the location of genes on chromosomes of the other grasses. Genome research applied to grasses as a group thereby can increase the efficiency and effectiveness of breeding for improvement of each member of this group, which includes wheat, corn, and rice, the world’s three most important sources of food.

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To feed a world population growing by up to 160 people per minute, with >90% of them in developing countries, will require an astonishing increase in food production. Forecasts call for wheat to become the most important cereal in the world, with maize close behind; together, these crops will account for ≈80% of developing countries’ cereal import requirements. Access to a range of genetic diversity is critical to the success of breeding programs. The global effort to assemble, document, and utilize these resources is enormous, and the genetic diversity in the collections is critical to the world’s fight against hunger. The introgression of genes that reduced plant height and increased disease and viral resistance in wheat provided the foundation for the “Green Revolution” and demonstrated the tremendous impact that genetic resources can have on production. Wheat hybrids and synthetics may provide the yield increases needed in the future. A wild relative of maize, Tripsacum, represents an untapped genetic resource for abiotic and biotic stress resistance and for apomixis, a trait that could provide developing world farmers access to hybrid technology. Ownership of genetic resources and genes must be resolved to ensure global access to these critical resources. The application of molecular and genetic engineering technologies enhances the use of genetic resources. The effective and complementary use of all of our technological tools and resources will be required for meeting the challenge posed by the world’s expanding demand for food.

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Previous studies of photosynthetic acclimation to elevated CO2 have focused on the most recently expanded, sunlit leaves in the canopy. We examined acclimation in a vertical profile of leaves through a canopy of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). The crop was grown at an elevated CO2 partial pressure of 55 Pa within a replicated field experiment using free-air CO2 enrichment. Gas exchange was used to estimate in vivo carboxylation capacity and the maximum rate of ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate-limited photosynthesis. Net photosynthetic CO2 uptake was measured for leaves in situ within the canopy. Leaf contents of ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (Rubisco), light-harvesting-complex (LHC) proteins, and total N were determined. Elevated CO2 did not affect carboxylation capacity in the most recently expanded leaves but led to a decrease in lower, shaded leaves during grain development. Despite this acclimation, in situ photosynthetic CO2 uptake remained higher under elevated CO2. Acclimation at elevated CO2 was accompanied by decreases in both Rubisco and total leaf N contents and an increase in LHC content. Elevated CO2 led to a larger increase in LHC/Rubisco in lower canopy leaves than in the uppermost leaf. Acclimation of leaf photosynthesis to elevated CO2 therefore depended on both vertical position within the canopy and the developmental stage.

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The potato spindle tuber disease was first observed early in the 20th century in the northeastern United States and shown, in 1971, to be incited by a viroid, potato spindle tuber viroid (PSTVd). No wild-plant PSTVd reservoirs have been identified; thus, the initial source of PSTVd infecting potatoes has remained a mystery. Several variants of a novel viroid, designated Mexican papita viroid (MPVd), have now been isolated from Solanum cardiophyllum Lindl. (papita güera, cimantli) plants growing wild in the Mexican state of Aguascalientes. MPVd's nucleotide sequence is most closely related to those of the tomato planta macho viroid (TPMVd) and PSTVd. From TPMVd, MPVd may be distinguished on the basis of biological properties, such as replication and symptom formation in certain differential hosts. Phylogenetic and ecological data indicate that MPVd and certain viroids now affecting crop plants, such as TPMVd, PSTVd, and possibly others, have a common ancestor. We hypothesize that commercial potatoes grown in the United States have become viroid-infected by chance transfer of MPVd or a similar viroid from endemically infected wild solanaceous plants imported from Mexico as germplasm, conceivably from plants known to have been introduced from Mexico to the United States late in the 19th century in efforts to identify genetic resistance to the potato late blight fungus, Phytophthora infestans.

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Acid extracts and a resultant fraction from solid-phase extraction (SPE) of Romalea guttata crop and midgut tissues induce sorghum (Sorghum bicolor var. Rio) coleoptile growth in 24-h incubations an average of 49% above untreated controls. When combined with plant auxin, indole-3-acetic acid (IAA), the SPE fraction shows a synergistic reaction, yielding increases in coleoptile growth that average 295% above untreated controls and 8% above IAA standards. The interaction lowered the point of maximum sensitivity of IAA 3 orders of magnitude, resulting in a new IAA physiological set point at 10(-7) g/ml. This synergism suggests that contents in animal regurgitants making their way into plant tissue during feeding may produce a positive feedback in plant growth and development following herbivory. Such a process, also known as reward feedback, may exert major controls on ecosystem-level relationships in nature.

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We examine the predictive ability and consistency properties of exchange rate expectations for the dollar/euro using a survey conducted in Spain by PwC among a panel of experts and entrepreneurs. Our results suggest that the PwC panel have some forecasting ability for time horizons from 3 to 9 months, although only for the 3-month ahead expectations we obtain marginal evidence of unbiasedness and efficiency in the forecasts. As for the consistency properties of the exchange rate expectations formation process, we find that survey participants form stabilising expectations in the short-run and destabilising expectations in the long- run and that the expectation formation process is closer to fundamentalists than chartists.

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Using an international, multi-model suite of historical forecasts from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP), we compare the seasonal prediction skill in boreal wintertime between models that resolve the stratosphere and its dynamics (high-top') and models that do not (low-top'). We evaluate hindcasts that are initialized in November, and examine the model biases in the stratosphere and how they relate to boreal wintertime (December-March) seasonal forecast skill. We are unable to detect more skill in the high-top ensemble-mean than the low-top ensemble-mean in forecasting the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation, but model performance varies widely. Increasing the ensemble size clearly increases the skill for a given model. We then examine two major processes involving stratosphere-troposphere interactions (the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)) and how they relate to predictive skill on intraseasonal to seasonal time-scales, particularly over the North Atlantic and Eurasia regions. High-top models tend to have a more realistic stratospheric response to El Niño and the QBO compared to low-top models. Enhanced conditional wintertime skill over high latitudes and the North Atlantic region during winters with El Niño conditions suggests a possible role for a stratospheric pathway.

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In this letter, a new approach for crop phenology estimation with remote sensing is presented. The proposed methodology is aimed to exploit tools from a dynamical system context. From a temporal sequence of images, a geometrical model is derived, which allows us to translate this temporal domain into the estimation problem. The evolution model in state space is obtained through dimensional reduction by a principal component analysis, defining the state variables, of the observations. Then, estimation is achieved by combining the generated model with actual samples in an optimal way using a Kalman filter. As a proof of concept, an example with results obtained with this approach over rice fields by exploiting stacks of TerraSAR-X dual polarization images is shown.

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In this study, a methodology based in a dynamical framework is proposed to incorporate additional sources of information to normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series of agricultural observations for a phenological state estimation application. The proposed implementation is based on the particle filter (PF) scheme that is able to integrate multiple sources of data. Moreover, the dynamics-led design is able to conduct real-time (online) estimations, i.e., without requiring to wait until the end of the campaign. The evaluation of the algorithm is performed by estimating the phenological states over a set of rice fields in Seville (SW, Spain). A Landsat-5/7 NDVI series of images is complemented with two distinct sources of information: SAR images from the TerraSAR-X satellite and air temperature information from a ground-based station. An improvement in the overall estimation accuracy is obtained, especially when the time series of NDVI data is incomplete. Evaluations on the sensitivity to different development intervals and on the mitigation of discontinuities of the time series are also addressed in this work, demonstrating the benefits of this data fusion approach based on the dynamic systems.