How do autoimmune diseases cluster in families? A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: A primary characteristic of complex genetic diseases is that affected individuals tend to cluster in families (that is, familial aggregation). Aggregation of the same autoimmune condition, also referred to as familial autoimmune disease, has been extensively evaluated. However, aggregation of diverse autoimmune diseases, also known as familial autoimmunity, has been overlooked. Therefore, a systematic review and meta-analysis were performed aimed at gathering evidence about this topic. Methods: Familial autoimmunity was investigated in five major autoimmune diseases, namely, rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, autoimmune thyroid disease, multiple sclerosis and type 1 diabetes mellitus. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines were followed. Articles were searched in Pubmed and Embase databases. Results: Out of a total of 61 articles, 44 were selected for final analysis. Familial autoimmunity was found in all the autoimmune diseases investigated. Aggregation of autoimmune thyroid disease, followed by systemic lupus erythematosus and rheumatoid arthritis, was the most encountered. Conclusions: Familial autoimmunity is a frequently seen condition. Further study of familial autoimmunity will help to decipher the common mechanisms of autoimmunity.

Recognition of static and dynamic facial expressions: Influences of sex, type and intensity of emotion

Ecological validity of static and intense facial expressions in emotional recognition has been questioned. Recent studies have recommended the use of facial stimuli more compatible to the natural conditions of social interaction, which involves motion and variations in emotional intensity. In this study, we compared the recognition of static and dynamic facial expressions of happiness, fear, anger and sadness, presented in four emotional intensities (25 %, 50 %, 75 % and 100 %). Twenty volunteers (9 women and 11 men), aged between 19 and 31 years, took part in the study. The experiment consisted of two sessions in which participants had to identify the emotion of static (photographs) and dynamic (videos) displays of facial expressions on the computer screen. The mean accuracy was submitted to an Anova for repeated measures of model: 2 sexes x [2 conditions x 4 expressions x 4 intensities]. We observed an advantage for the recognition of dynamic expressions of happiness and fear compared to the static stimuli (p < .05). Analysis of interactions showed that expressions with intensity of 25 % were better recognized in the dynamic condition (p < .05). The addition of motion contributes to improve recognition especially in male participants (p < .05). We concluded that the effect of the motion varies as a function of the type of emotion, intensity of the expression and sex of the participant. These results support the hypothesis that dynamic stimuli have more ecological validity and are more appropriate to the research with emotions.

Oaxaca-Blinder type counterfactual decomposition methods for duration outcomes

Los métodos disponibles para realizar análisis de descomposición que se pueden aplicar cuando los datos son completamente observados, no son válidos cuando la variable de interés es censurada. Esto puede explicar la escasez de este tipo de ejercicios considerando variables de duración, las cuales se observan usualmente bajo censura. Este documento propone un método del tipo Oaxaca-Blinder para descomponer diferencias en la media en el contexto de datos censurados. La validez de dicho método radica en la identificación y estimación de la distribución conjunta de la variable de duración y un conjunto de covariables. Adicionalmente, se propone un método más general que permite descomponer otros funcionales de interés como la mediana o el coeficiente de Gini, el cual se basa en la especificación de la función de distribución condicional de la variable de duración dado un conjunto de covariables. Con el fin de evaluar el desempeño de dichos métodos, se realizan experimentos tipo Monte Carlo. Finalmente, los métodos propuestos son aplicados para analizar las brechas de género en diferentes características de la duración del desempleo en España, tales como la duración media, la probabilidad de ser desempleado de largo plazo y el coeficiente de Gini. Los resultados obtenidos permiten concluir que los factores diferentes a las características observables, tales como capital humano o estructura del hogar, juegan un papel primordial para explicar dichas brechas.

Estimating and Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates:US and Colombia Analysis

In this paper we use the most representative models that exist in the literature on term structure of interest rates. In particular, we explore affine one factor models and polynomial-type approximations such as Nelson and Siegel. Our empirical application considers monthly data of USA and Colombia for estimation and forecasting. We find that affine models do not provide adequate performance either in-sample or out-of-sample. On the contrary, parsimonious models such as Nelson and Siegel have adequate results in-sample, however out-of-sample they are not able to systematically improve upon random walk base forecast.

Case-Crossover Analysis of Air Pollution Health Effects: A Systematic Review of Methodology and Application

Case-crossover is one of the most used designs for analyzing the health-related effects of air pollution. Nevertheless, no one has reviewed its application and methodology in this context. Objective: We conducted a systematic review of case-crossover (CCO) designs used to study the relationship between air pollution and morbidity and mortality, from the standpoint of methodology and application.Data sources and extraction: A search was made of the MEDLINE and EMBASE databases.Reports were classified as methodologic or applied. From the latter, the following information was extracted: author, study location, year, type of population (general or patients), dependent variable(s), independent variable(s), type of CCO design, and whether effect modification was analyzed for variables at the individual level. Data synthesis: The review covered 105 reports that fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Of these, 24 addressed methodological aspects, and the remainder involved the design’s application. In the methodological reports, the designs that yielded the best results in simulation were symmetric bidirectional CCO and time-stratified CCO. Furthermore, we observed an increase across time in the use of certain CCO designs, mainly symmetric bidirectional and time-stratified CCO. The dependent variables most frequently analyzed were those relating to hospital morbidity; the pollutants most often studied were those linked to particulate matter. Among the CCO-application reports, 13.6% studied effect modification for variables at the individual level.Conclusions: The use of CCO designs has undergone considerable growth; the most widely used designs were those that yielded better results in simulation studies: symmetric bidirectional and time-stratified CCO. However, the advantages of CCO as a method of analysis of variables at the individual level are put to little use

Prediction of postprandial blood glucose under intra-patient variability and uncertainty and its use in the design of insulin dosing strategies for type 1 diabetic patients

In this thesis I propose a novel method to estimate the dose and injection-to-meal time for low-risk intensive insulin therapy. This dosage-aid system uses an optimization algorithm to determine the insulin dose and injection-to-meal time that minimizes the risk of postprandial hyper- and hypoglycaemia in type 1 diabetic patients. To this end, the algorithm applies a methodology that quantifies the risk of experiencing different grades of hypo- or hyperglycaemia in the postprandial state induced by insulin therapy according to an individual patient’s parameters. This methodology is based on modal interval analysis (MIA). Applying MIA, the postprandial glucose level is predicted with consideration of intra-patient variability and other sources of uncertainty. A worst-case approach is then used to calculate the risk index. In this way, a safer prediction of possible hyper- and hypoglycaemic episodes induced by the insulin therapy tested can be calculated in terms of these uncertainties.

New Ruthenium complexes containing N, P and S-donor type of ligands: coordination chemistry, characterization and application to asymetric and non-asymetric catalysis

Síntesi de nous complexos de Ruteni amb lligands no quirals que tenen per fórmula [Ru(phen)([9]aneS3)X] (on X = H2O, py i MeCN). Caracterització espectroscòpica electroquímica i estructural d'aquesta família de complexos. Estudi de les seves propietats catalítiques en front a l'oxidació de substrats orgànics com l'alcohol benzílic en reaccions d'electrocatàlisi. Avaluació cinètica dels mecanismes de substitució entre els complexos Ru-py i Ru-MeCN. Generació d'un interruptor molecular foto-induït. Síntesi de nous complexos quirals de Ru atropoisomèricament purs amb lligands oxazolínics que tenen per fórmula [Ru(trpy)(Ph-box-R)X] on (X = Cl, H2O, py, MeCN, 2-OH-py). Caracterització estructural exhaustiva en estat sòlid (Raig-X) en solució (RMN) i en fase gas (càlculs DFT). Avaluació de la seva activitat catalítica en reaccions asimmetriques d'epoxidació de substrats proquirals. Síntesi de nous lligands polipiridílics quirals amb simetria C3. Estudi de la seva química de coordinació i avaluació de la seva activitat catalítica en reaccions asimmetriques d'oxidació i reducció.

Mathematical and electrical analysis of pulsed tones

This paper discusses a study conducted to perform a mathematical analysis and an electrical analysis of pulsed tones to determine which type of pulsed tone is most suitable.

An analysis of the relationship between immittance results and AC/BC

This paper analyzes subjects with air bone (A/B) gaps (a comparison of air-conducted thresholds and bone-conducted thresholds) and whether tympanometry (the type of tympanogram, static admittance, or peak pressure) can predict the size of the A/B gap.

Crop type influences edge effects on the reproduction of songbirds in sagebrush habitat near agriculture

Extensive fragmentation of the sagebrush shrubsteppe of western North America could be contributing to observed population declines of songbirds in sagebrush habitat. We examined whether habitat fragmentation impacts the reproduction of songbirds in sagebrush edge habitat near agriculture, and if potential impacts vary depending on the adjacent crop type. Specifically, we evaluated whether nest abundance and nest survival varied between orchard edge habitat, vineyard edge habitat, and interior habitat. We then examined whether the local nest predator community and vegetation could explain the differences detected. We detected fewer nests in edge than interior habitat. Nest abundance per songbird was also lower in edge than interior habitat, although only adjacent to vineyards. Nest predation was more frequent in orchard edge habitat than vineyard edge or interior habitat. Predators identified with nest cameras were primarily snakes, however, reduced nest survival in orchard edge habitat was not explained by differences in the abundance of snakes or any other predator species identified. Information theoretic analysis of daily survival rates showed that greater study plot shrub cover and lower grass height at nests were partially responsible for the lower rate of predation-specific daily nest survival rate (PDSR) observed in orchard edge habitat, but additional factors are likely important. Results of this study suggest that different crop types have different edge effects on songbirds nesting in sagebrush shrubsteppe, and that these reproductive edge effects may contribute to observed declines of these species. Habitat managers should avoid the creation of new orchard-sagebrush habitat edges to avoid further impacts on already declining songbird populations.

Sensitivity of feature-based analysis methods of storm tracks to the form of background field removal

For the tracking of extrema associated with weather systems to be applied to a broad range of fields it is necessary to remove a background field that represents the slowly varying, large spatial scales. The sensitivity of the tracking analysis to the form of background field removed is explored for the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks for three contrasting fields from an integration of the U. K. Met Office's (UKMO) Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadAM3). Several methods are explored for the removal of a background field from the simple subtraction of the climatology, to the more sophisticated removal of the planetary scales. Two temporal filters are also considered in the form of a 2-6-day Lanczos filter and a 20-day high-pass Fourier filter. The analysis indicates that the simple subtraction of the climatology tends to change the nature of the systems to the extent that there is a redistribution of the systems relative to the climatological background resulting in very similar statistical distributions for both positive and negative anomalies. The optimal planetary wave filter removes total wavenumbers less than or equal to a number in the range 5-7, resulting in distributions more easily related to particular types of weather system. For the temporal filters the 2-6-day bandpass filter is found to have a detrimental impact on the individual weather systems, resulting in the storm tracks having a weak waveguide type of behavior. The 20-day high-pass temporal filter is less aggressive than the 2-6-day filter and produces results falling between those of the climatological and 2-6-day filters.

The ERA-40 re-analysis

ERA-40 is a re-analysis of meteorological observations from September 1957 to August 2002 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in collaboration with many institutions. The observing system changed considerably over this re-analysis period, with assimilable data provided by a succession of satellite-borne instruments from the 1970s onwards, supplemented by increasing numbers of observations from aircraft, ocean-buoys and other surface platforms, but with a declining number of radiosonde ascents since the late 1980s. The observations used in ERA-40 were accumulated from many sources. The first part of this paper describes the data acquisition and the principal changes in data type and coverage over the period. It also describes the data assimilation system used for ERA-40. This benefited from many of the changes introduced into operational forecasting since the mid-1990s, when the systems used for the 15-year ECMWF re-analysis (ERA-15) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis were implemented. Several of the improvements are discussed. General aspects of the production of the analyses are also summarized. A number of results indicative of the overall performance of the data assimilation system, and implicitly of the observing system, are presented and discussed. The comparison of background (short-range) forecasts and analyses with observations, the consistency of the global mass budget, the magnitude of differences between analysis and background fields and the accuracy of medium-range forecasts run from the ERA-40 analyses are illustrated. Several results demonstrate the marked improvement that was made to the observing system for the southern hemisphere in the 1970s, particularly towards the end of the decade. In contrast, the synoptic quality of the analysis for the northern hemisphere is sufficient to provide forecasts that remain skilful well into the medium range for all years. Two particular problems are also examined: excessive precipitation over tropical oceans and a too strong Brewer-Dobson circulation, both of which are pronounced in later years. Several other aspects of the quality of the re-analyses revealed by monitoring and validation studies are summarized. Expectations that the second-generation ERA-40 re-analysis would provide products that are better than those from the firstgeneration ERA-15 and NCEP/NCAR re-analyses are found to have been met in most cases. © Royal Meteorological Society, 2005. The contributions of N. A. Rayner and R. W. Saunders are Crown copyright.

The analysis of ranked observations of soil structure using indicator geostatistics

Structure is an important physical feature of the soil that is associated with water movement, the soil atmosphere, microorganism activity and nutrient uptake. A soil without any obvious organisation of its components is known as apedal and this state can have marked effects on several soil processes. Accurate maps of topsoil and subsoil structure are desirable for a wide range of models that aim to predict erosion, solute transport, or flow of water through the soil. Also such maps would be useful to precision farmers when deciding how to apply nutrients and pesticides in a site-specific way, and to target subsoiling and soil structure stabilization procedures. Typically, soil structure is inferred from bulk density or penetrometer resistance measurements and more recently from soil resistivity and conductivity surveys. To measure the former is both time-consuming and costly, whereas observations made by the latter methods can be made automatically and swiftly using a vehicle-mounted penetrometer or resistivity and conductivity sensors. The results of each of these methods, however, are affected by other soil properties, in particular moisture content at the time of sampling, texture, and the presence of stones. Traditional methods of observing soil structure identify the type of ped and its degree of development. Methods of ranking such observations from good to poor for different soil textures have been developed. Indicator variograms can be computed for each category or rank of structure and these can be summed to give the sum of indicator variograms (SIV). Observations of the topsoil and subsoil structure were made at four field sites where the soil had developed on different parent materials. The observations were ranked by four methods and indicator and the sum of indicator variograms were computed and modelled for each method of ranking. The individual indicators were then kriged with the parameters of the appropriate indicator variogram model to map the probability of encountering soil with the structure represented by that indicator. The model parameters of the SIVs for each ranking system were used with the data to krige the soil structure classes, and the results are compared with those for the individual indicators. The relations between maps of soil structure and selected wavebands from aerial photographs are examined as basis for planning surveys of soil structure. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity analysis of a catchment-scale nitrogen model

There are now considerable expectations that semi-distributed models are useful tools for supporting catchment water quality management. However, insufficient attention has been given to evaluating the uncertainties inherent to this type of model, especially those associated with the spatial disaggregation of the catchment. The Integrated Nitrogen in Catchments model (INCA) is subjected to an extensive regionalised sensitivity analysis in application to the River Kennet, part of the groundwater-dominated upper Thames catchment, UK The main results are: (1) model output was generally insensitive to land-phase parameters, very sensitive to groundwater parameters, including initial conditions, and significantly sensitive to in-river parameters; (2) INCA was able to produce good fits simultaneously to the available flow, nitrate and ammonium in-river data sets; (3) representing parameters as heterogeneous over the catchment (206 calibrated parameters) rather than homogeneous (24 calibrated parameters) produced a significant improvement in fit to nitrate but no significant improvement to flow and caused a deterioration in ammonium performance; (4) the analysis indicated that calibrating the flow-related parameters first, then calibrating the remaining parameters (as opposed to calibrating all parameters together) was not a sensible strategy in this case; (5) even the parameters to which the model output was most sensitive suffered from high uncertainty due to spatial inconsistencies in the estimated optimum values, parameter equifinality and the sampling error associated with the calibration method; (6) soil and groundwater nutrient and flow data are needed to reduce. uncertainty in initial conditions, residence times and nitrogen transformation parameters, and long-term historic data are needed so that key responses to changes in land-use management can be assimilated. The results indicate the general, difficulty of reconciling the questions which catchment nutrient models are expected to answer with typically limited data sets and limited knowledge about suitable model structures. The results demonstrate the importance of analysing semi-distributed model uncertainties prior to model application, and illustrate the value and limitations of using Monte Carlo-based methods for doing so. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.