Report on Knowledge Exchange workshop Price of keeping knowledge: financial streams for digital preservation

In contrast to cost modeling activities, the pricing of services must be simple and transparent. Calculating and thus knowing price structures, would not only help identify the level of detail required for cost modeling of individual instititutions, but also help develop a ”public” market for services as well as clarify the division of task and the modeling of funding and revenue streams for data preservation of public institutions. This workshop has built on the results from the workshop ”The Costs and Benefits of Keeping Knowledge” which took place 11 June 2012 in Copenhagen. This expert workshop aimed at: •Identifying ways for data repositories to abstract from their complicated cost structures and arrive at one transparent pricing structure which can be aligned with available and plausible funding schemes. Those repositories will probably need a stable institutional funding stream for data management and preservation. Are there any estimates for this, absolute or as percentage of overall cost? Part of the revenue will probably have to come through data management fees upon ingest. How could that be priced? Per dataset, per GB or as a percentage of research cost? Will it be necessary to charge access prices, as they contradict the open science paradigm? •What are the price components for pricing individual services, which prices are currently being paid e.g. to commercial providers? What are the description and conditions of the service(s) delivered and guaranteed? •What types of risks are inherent in these pricing schemes? •How can services and prices be defined in an all-inclusive and simple manner, so as to enable researchers to apply for specific amount when asking for funding of data-intensive projects?Please

Fisheries marketing systems and consumer preferences in Puttalam District Sri-Lanka

The aim of this study was to understand the current and historic market situation for inland fish and it’s substitutes in order to identify which of the various production opportunities presented by the seasonal tank resource might have greatest relevance for marginal communities in the Dry-zone. Regional and sub-regional market networks for fish and meat products were investigated, ranking and scoring exercises used to characterise consumer demand in rain-fed areas of North West Province and secondary data sources were used to assess historic patterns of demand and supply [PDF contains 57 pages]

Catch rates as indices of abundance of yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares, in the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Catch and effort data from logbooks of tuna seiners were used to make estimates of catch per hour of searching for 1970-1980. The estimates were standardized using a regression model to make annual estimates of abundance adjusted for fishing mode, speed, capacity, use of aerial assistance, net dimensions, and sea-surface temperature. Inside the CYRA the standardized estimates for tuna schools associated with dolphins and those for schools not associated with dolphins showed a similar overall pattern of decline. The 1980 catch rates were about 300/0 of the 1970 rates, the decline being greater for the schools not associated with dolphins. Dolphin-associated schools outside the CYRA declined to about 60% of the 1970 levels. SPANISH: Se emplearon los datos de la captura y el esfuerzo de los cuadernos de bitácora de las embarcaciones cerqueras para hacer las estimaciones de la captura por hora de búsqueda correspondientes a 1970-1980. Se normalizaron estas estimaciones usando un modelo de regresión con el fin' de hacer las estimaciones anuales de la abundancia, ajustadas según la moda de pesca, velocidad, capacidad, uso de ayuda aérea, dimensiones de la red y temperatura de la superficie del mar. En el ARCAA las estimaciones normalizadas de los cardúmenes de atún asociados con delfines y aquellas de los cardúmenes no asociados con delfines, indicaron una pauta general similar de reducción. Las proporciones de captura de 1980, fueron cerca del 300/0 de las de 1970, encontrándose la mayor reducción en los cardúmenes no asociados con delfines. Los cardúmenes asociados con delfines, fuera del ARCAA, se redujeron en un 60% con respecto a los niveles de 1970. (PDF contains 79 pages.)

An economic overview of the fish and shrimp production of the Nigeria fish trawling industry under the structural adjustment programme

Over the years, Nigeria have witnessed different government with different policy measures. Against the negative consequences of the past policies, the structural adjustment was initiated in 1986. Its aims is to effectively altar and restructure the consumption patterns of the economy as well as to eliminate price distortions and heavy dependence on the oil and the imports of consumer goods and services. Within the period of implementation, there has been a decreasing trend in yearly fish catch landings and sizes but the reverse in shrimping. There is also a gradual shift from fishing to shrimping, from the vessels purchased with 83.3% increase of shrimpers from 1985 to 1989. Decreasing fish catch sizes and quantity aggravated by the present high cost of fishing coupled with the favourable export market for Nigeria shrimp tend to influence the sift. This economic situation is the result of the supply measures of SAP through the devaluation of the Naira. There is also overconcentration of vessels on the inshore waters as majority of the vessels are old and low powers hence incapable of fishing on the deep sea. Rotterdam price being paid for automotive gas oil (AGO) by fishing industries is observed to be discriminating and unhealthy to the growth of the industry as it is exceedingly high and unstable thus affecting planning for fishing operation. Fuel alone takes 43% of the total cost of operation. The overall consequences is that fishing days are loss and therefore higher overhead cost. It was concluded that for a healthy growth and sustainable resources of our marine fishery under the structural adjustment programme licensing of new fishing vessels should be stopped immediately and the demand side of SAP should be employed by subsidizing high powered fishing vessels which can operate effectively on the deep sea

Length-weight relationship and organ indices of pond raised and wild population of C. gariepinus (Burchell 1822) pisces-Claridae

Samples of C. gariepinus collected from the wild and cultured populations in Plateau and Niger States of Nigeria were analyzed for length-weight relationship and organ indices (Gonadosomatic index (GSI), hepatosomatic index (HSI), renalsomatic index (RSI) and somatic fat deposit index (PDI). High correlation and linear relationship between body length and body weight was observed in all sample population (P<0.05). A significant difference was observed between the GSI of males and females of both wild and cultured population and also between females of the wild and cultured population,(P < 0.05).There was no significant difference in HSI, CSI RSI and PDI of all the sample populations (P < 0.05).The importance of length-weight relationship and organ indices in fish production are discussed

An economic approach to consumer product ratings

In three essays we examine user-generated product ratings with aggregation. While recommendation systems have been studied extensively, this simple type of recommendation system has been neglected, despite its prevalence in the field. We develop a novel theoretical model of user-generated ratings. This model improves upon previous work in three ways: it considers rational agents and allows them to abstain from rating when rating is costly; it incorporates rating aggregation (such as averaging ratings); and it considers the effect on rating strategies of multiple simultaneous raters. In the first essay we provide a partial characterization of equilibrium behavior. In the second essay we test this theoretical model in laboratory, and in the third we apply established behavioral models to the data generated in the lab. This study provides clues to the prevalence of extreme-valued ratings in field implementations. We show theoretically that in equilibrium, ratings distributions do not represent the value distributions of sincere ratings. Indeed, we show that if rating strategies follow a set of regularity conditions, then in equilibrium the rate at which players participate is increasing in the extremity of agents' valuations of the product. This theoretical prediction is realized in the lab. We also find that human subjects show a disproportionate predilection for sincere rating, and that when they do send insincere ratings, they are almost always in the direction of exaggeration. Both sincere and exaggerated ratings occur with great frequency despite the fact that such rating strategies are not in subjects' best interest. We therefore apply the behavioral concepts of quantal response equilibrium (QRE) and cursed equilibrium (CE) to the experimental data. Together, these theories explain the data significantly better than does a theory of rational, Bayesian behavior -- accurately predicting key comparative statics. However, the theories fail to predict the high rates of sincerity, and it is clear that a better theory is needed.

Assessment of consumer acceptance of kilishi of African carp (Labeo coubie Rueppell) and Elephant snout (Hyperopisus bebe occidentalis, Guenther)

This study was carried out to assess consumers' acceptance of kilishi prepared from Labeo coubie and Hyperopisus bebe occidentalis in Sokoto. The organoleptic properties (texture, odour, taste and flavour) of kilishi in its fresh form and under storage for 16 weeks were determined. The mean scores for the organoleptic assessment (6.90 and 7.19 for kilishi of Labeo and Hyperopisus respectively) showed that fish kilishi was highly acceptable. Hyperopisus kilishi recorded slightly higher mean scores for the tested organoleptic properties. The declining pattern of the sensory assessment scores with length of storage indicated that the optimum storage period under the room temperature for kilishi made from the experimental fish species in the study area was 6-8 weeks. Further research on appropriate storage methods is desirable. However, preparation of fish kilishi could be explored as alternative preservation technique to reduce fish spoilage especially during the glut in supply and to diversify fish products

An Alternative View of the US Price-Dividend Ratio Dynamics

As a necessary condition for the validity of the present value model, the price-dividend ratio must be stationary. However, significant market episodes seem to provide evidence of prices significantly drifting apart from dividends while other episodes show prices anchoring back to dividends. This paper investigates the stationarity of this ratio in the context of a Markov- switching model à la Hamilton (1989) where an asymmetric speed of adjustment towards a unique attractor is introduced. A three-regime model displays the best regime identification and reveals that the first part of the 90’s boom (1985-1995) and the post-war period are characterized by a stationary state featuring a slow reverting process to a relatively high attractor. Interestingly, the latter part of the 90’s boom (1996-2000), characterized by a growing price-dividend ratio, is entirely attributed to a stationary regime featuring a highly reverting process to the attractor. Finally, the post-Lehman Brothers episode of the subprime crisis can be classified into a temporary nonstationary regime.

Evaluating the role of energy efficiency labels in the prices of household appliances: the case of refrigerators

4 p.

Long Run Trends in the Price of Energy and Energy Services

4 p.

Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

Trends in Income and Price Elasticities of Transport Demand (1850-2010)

40 p.

Decarbonising urban transportation

18 p.

Towards a standard methodology to evaluate internal cluster validity indices

The evaluation and comparison of internal cluster validity indices is a critical problem in the clustering area. The methodology used in most of the evaluations assumes that the clustering algorithms work correctly. We propose an alternative methodology that does not make this often false assumption. We compared 7 internal cluster validity indices with both methodologies and concluded that the results obtained with the proposed methodology are more representative of the actual capabilities of the compared indices.

Determination of water quality in lakes by biological indices

Some problems of evaluation of water quality by biological indices which can be applied in the practice of ecological monitoring on water bodies are considered in this report. Taking into account, that ecological monitoring is the most urgent for large lakes, situated in civilised (urbanised) and (or) agrarian landscapes the corresponding problems will be considered mainly in conformity with large deep lakes of temperate latitudes. The aim is a general evaluation of some of the methods from the point of view of their possible application for monitoring on large water bodies.