The Problem with Utility: Towards a Non-Consequentialist / Utility Theory Synthesis

I develop the argument that our current decision-making framework, utility theory, when used by itself, is 1) descriptively incomplete, 2) theoretically flawed, and 2) ethically questionable. In response, I offer an exploratory framework that incorporates both consequentialist and non-consequentialist motivations. Adding a commitment function provides a synthesis which remedies the problems associated with the sole use of utility theory. Finally, I show how philosophers Immanuel Kant, W.D. Ross, and Martin Buber provide an ethical basis for the framework.

Conditional expression of Sry, and Wnt4 by gene-targeting: Studies in sexual and skeletal development

Sry and Wnt4 cDNAs were individually introduced into the ubiquitously-expressed Rosa26 ( R26) locus by gene targeting in embryonic stem (ES) cells to create a conditional gene expression system in mice. In the targeted alleles, expression of these cDNAs should be blocked by a neomycin resistance selection cassette that is flanked by loxP sites. Transgene expression should be activated after the blocking cassette is deleted by Cre recombinase. ^ To test this conditional expression system, I have bred R26-stop- Sry and R26-stop-Wnt4 heterozygotes with a MisRII-Cre mouse line that expresses Cre in the gonads of both sexes. Analysis of these two types of bigenic heterozygotes indicated that their gonads developed normally like those of wild types. However, one XX R26-Sry/R26-Sry; MisR2-Cre/+ showed epididymis-like structures resembling those of males. In contrast, only normal phenotypes were observed in XY R26-Wnt4/R26-Wnt4; MisR2-Cre /+ mice. To interpret these results, I have tested for Cre recombinase activity by Southern blot and transcription of the Sry and Wnt4 transgenes by RT-PCR. Results showed that bigenic mutants had insufficient activation of the transgenes in their gonads at E12.5 and E13.5. Therefore, the failure to observe mutant phenotypes may have resulted from low activity of MisR2-Cre recombination at the appropriate time. ^ Col2a1-Cre transgenic mice express Cre in differentiating chondrocytes. R26-Wnt4; Col2a1-Cre bigenic heterozygous mice were found to exhibit a dramatic alteration in growth presumably caused by Wnt4 overexpression during chondrogenesis. R26-Wnt4; Col2a1-Cre mice exhibited dwarfism beginning approximately 10 days after birth. In addition, they also had craniofacial abnormalities, and had delayed ossification of the lumbar vertebrate and pelvic bones. Histological analysis of the growth plates of R26-Wnt4; Col2a1-Cre mice revealed less structural organization and a delay in onset of the primary and secondary ossification centers. Molecular studies confirmed that overexpression of Wnt4 causes decreased proliferation and early maturation of chondrocytes. In addition, R26-Wnt4; Col2a1-Cre mice had decreased expression of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), suggesting that defects in vascularization may contribute to the dwarf phenotype. Finally, 9-month-old R26-Wnt4; Col2a1-Cre mice had significantly more fat cells in the marrow cavities of their metaphysis long bones, implying that long-term overexpression of Wnt4may cause bone marrow pathologies. In conclusion, Wnt4 was activated by Col2a1-Cre recombinase and was overexpressed in the growth plate, resulting in aberrant proliferation and differentiation of chondrocytes, and ultimately leads to dwarfism in mice. ^

Measuring health state preferences for hemophilia: Development of a disease-specific utility instrument

Research has shown that disease-specific health related quality of life (HRQoL) instruments are more responsive than generic instruments to particular disease conditions. However, only a few studies have used disease-specific instruments to measure HRQoL in hemophilia. The goal of this project was to develop a disease-specific utility instrument that measures patient preferences for various hemophilia health states. The visual analog scale (VAS), a ranking method, and the standard gamble (SG), a choice-based method incorporating risk, were used to measure patient preferences. Study participants (n = 128) were recruited from the UT/Gulf States Hemophilia and Thrombophilia Center and stratified by age: 0–18 years and 19+. ^ Test retest reliability was demonstrated for both VAS and SG instruments: overall within-subject correlation coefficients were 0.91 and 0.79, respectively. Results showed statistically significant differences in responses between pediatric and adult participants when using the SG (p = .045). However, no significant differences were shown between these groups when using the VAS (p = .636). When responses to VAS and SG instruments were compared, statistically significant differences in both pediatric (p < .0001) and adult (p < .0001) groups were observed. Data from this study also demonstrated that persons with hemophilia with varying severity of disease, as well as those who were HIV infected, were able to evaluate a range of health states for hemophilia. This has important implications for the study of quality of life in hemophilia and the development of disease-specific HRQoL instruments. ^ The utility measures obtained from this study can be applied in economic evaluations that analyze the cost/utility of alternative hemophilia treatments. Results derived from the SG indicate that age can influence patients' preferences regarding their state of health. This may have implications for considering treatment options based on the mean age of the population under consideration. Although both instruments independently demonstrated reliability and validity, results indicate that the two measures may not be interchangeable. ^

Assessing the Phylogenetic Utility of DNA Barcoding Using the New Zealand Cicada Genus Kikihia

DNA Barcoding (Hebert et al. 2003) has the potential to revolutionize the process of identifying and cataloguing biodiversity; however, significant controversy surrounds some of the proposed applications. In the seven years since DNA barcoding was introduced, the Web of Science records more than 600 studies that have weighed the pros and cons of this procedure. Unfortunately, the scientific community has been unable to come to any consensus on what threshold to use to differentiate species or even whether the barcoding region provides enough information to serve as an accurate species identification tool. The purpose of my thesis is to analyze mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) barcoding’s potential to identify known species and provide a well-resolved phylogeny for the New Zealand cicada genus Kikihia. In order to do this, I created a phylogenetic tree for species in the genus Kikihia based solely on the barcoding region and compared it to a phylogeny previously created by Marshall et al. (2008) that benefits from information from other mtDNA and nuclear genes as well as species-specific song data. I determined how well the barcoding region delimits species that have been recognized based on morphology and song. In addition, I looked at the effect of sampling on the success of barcoding studies. I analyzed subsets of a larger, more densely sampled dataset for the Kikihia Muta Group to determine which aspects of my sampling strategy led to the most accurate identifications. Since DNA barcoding would by definition have problems in diagnosing hybrid individuals, I studied two species (K. “murihikua” and K. angusta) that are known to hybridize. Individuals that were not obvious hybrids (determined by morphology) were selected for the case study. Phylogenetic analysis of the barcoding region revealed insights into the reasons these two species could not be successfully differentiated using barcoding alone.

Effects of Study Area Size on Geographic Characterizations of Health Events: Prostate Cancer Incidence in Southern New England, USA, 1994-1998.

ABSTRACT : BACKGROUND : We consider how representations of geographic variation in prostate cancer incidence across Southern New England, USA may be affected by selection of study area and/or properties of the statistical analysis. METHOD : A spatial scan statistic was used to monitor geographic variation among 35,167 incident prostate cancer cases diagnosed in Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island from 1994 to 1998, in relation to the 1990 populations of men 20+ years of age living in that region. Results from the combined-states analysis were compared to those from single-states. Impact of scanning procedures set to examine up to 50% or no more than10% of at-risk populations also was evaluated. RESULTS : With scanning set to 50%, 5 locations in the combined-states analysis were identified with markedly distinct incidence rates. Fewer than expected cases were estimated for nearly all Connecticut, Rhode Island and West Central Massachusetts, whereas census tracts on and around Cape Cod, and areas of Southwestern Connecticut and adjacent to greater Boston were estimated to have yielded more than expected incidence. Results of single-state analyses exhibited several discrepancies from the combined-states analysis. More conservative scanning found many more locations with varying incidence, but discrepancies between the combined- and single-state analysis were fewer. CONCLUSION : It is important to acknowledge the conditional nature of spatial analyses and carefully consider whether a true cluster of events is identified or artifact stemming from selection of study area size and/or scanning properties.

Empirical Analysis of Credit Risk Regime Switching and Temporal Conditional Default Correlation in Credit Default Swap Valuation: The Market liquidity effect

In this paper, we extend the debate concerning Credit Default Swap valuation to include time varying correlation and co-variances. Traditional multi-variate techniques treat the correlations between covariates as constant over time; however, this view is not supported by the data. Secondly, since financial data does not follow a normal distribution because of its heavy tails, modeling the data using a Generalized Linear model (GLM) incorporating copulas emerge as a more robust technique over traditional approaches. This paper also includes an empirical analysis of the regime switching dynamics of credit risk in the presence of liquidity by following the general practice of assuming that credit and market risk follow a Markov process. The study was based on Credit Default Swap data obtained from Bloomberg that spanned the period January 1st 2004 to August 08th 2006. The empirical examination of the regime switching tendencies provided quantitative support to the anecdotal view that liquidity decreases as credit quality deteriorates. The analysis also examined the joint probability distribution of the credit risk determinants across credit quality through the use of a copula function which disaggregates the behavior embedded in the marginal gamma distributions, so as to isolate the level of dependence which is captured in the copula function. The results suggest that the time varying joint correlation matrix performed far superior as compared to the constant correlation matrix; the centerpiece of linear regression models.

Export Promotion through Exchange Rate Policy: Exchange Rate Depreciation or Stabilization?

Exchange rate movements affect exports in two ways -- its depreciation and its variability (risk). A depreciation raises exports, but the associated exchange rate risk could offset that positive effect. The present paper investigates the net effect for eight Asian countries using a dynamic conditional correlation bivariate GARCH-M model that simultaneously estimates time varying correlation and exchange rate risk. Depreciation encourages exports, as expected, for most countries, but its contribution to export growth is weak. Exchange rate risk contributes to export growth in Malaysia and the Philippines, leading to positive net effects. Exchange rate risk generates a negative effect for six of the countries, resulting in a negative net effect in Indonesia, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and a zero net effect in Korea and Thailand. Since the negative effect of exchange rate risk may offset, or even dominate, positive contributions from depreciation, policy makers need to reduce exchange rate fluctuation along with and possibly before efforts to depreciate the currency.

The Perceived AIDS Preventative Utility of Knowing One's Partner Well

The public health advice to "either know your partner well, or use condoms" may have led to higher levels of risky sexual behaviour between well-acquainted individuals whose HIV status is unknown. This study assessed the extent to which college students believe that knowing their partner well eliminates the need to practice safer sex, and measured the relationship between such beliefs and the performance of necessary safer sexual practices, such as using condoms during sexual intercourse. Endorsement of beliefs that partner knowledge made safer sex unnecessary was common, and agreement with these beliefs correlated significantly and negatively with levels of AIDS preventive behaviours and behavioural intentions, especially among women. In conclusion, the public health dictum to "know your partner" has been widely internalized, and may be contributing to risky sexual behaviour. Consideration should be given to rejecting explicitly the "know your partner" advice, and to re-educating the public regarding the necessity of consistently practising safer sex with any individual whose HIV status is unknown.

Total Factor Productivity and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Conditional Volatility

This paper empirically assesses whether monetary policy affects real economic activity through its affect on the aggregate supply side of the macroeconomy. Analysts typically argue that monetary policy either does not affect the real economy, the classical dichotomy, or only affects the real economy in the short run through aggregate demand new Keynesian or new classical theories. Real business cycle theorists try to explain the business cycle with supply-side productivity shocks. We provide some preliminary evidence about how monetary policy affects the aggregate supply side of the macroeconomy through its affect on total factor productivity, an important measure of supply-side performance. The results show that monetary policy exerts a positive and statistically significant effect on the supply-side of the macroeconomy. Moreover, the findings buttress the importance of countercyclical monetary policy as well as support the adoption of an optimal money supply rule. Our results also prove consistent with the effective role of monetary policy in the Great Moderation as well as the more recent rise in productivity growth.

A Universal Formula for Continuous Utility

A single formula assigns a continuous utility function to every representable preference relation.

Multiple gradient echo propeller (MGREP) MRI: Technical development and potential applications

The PROPELLER (Periodically Rotated Overlapping Parallel Lines with Enhanced Reconstruction) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) technique has inherent advantages over other fast imaging methods, including robust motion correction, reduced image distortion, and resistance to off-resonance effects. These features make PROPELLER highly desirable for T2*-sensitive imaging, high-resolution diffusion imaging, and many other applications. However, PROPELLER has been predominantly implemented as a fast spin-echo (FSE) technique, which is insensitive to T2* contrast, and requires time-inefficient signal averaging to achieve adequate signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for many applications. These issues presently constrain the potential clinical utility of FSE-based PROPELLER. ^ In this research, our aim was to extend and enhance the potential applications of PROPELLER MRI by developing a novel multiple gradient echo PROPELLER (MGREP) technique that can overcome the aforementioned limitations. The MGREP pulse sequence was designed to acquire multiple gradient-echo images simultaneously, without any increase in total scan time or RF energy deposition relative to FSE-based PROPELLER. A new parameter was also introduced for direct user-control over gradient echo spacing, to allow variable sensitivity to T2* contrast. In parallel to pulse sequence development, an improved algorithm for motion correction was also developed and evaluated against the established method through extensive simulations. The potential advantages of MGREP over FSE-based PROPELLER were illustrated via three specific applications: (1) quantitative T2* measurement, (2) time-efficient signal averaging, and (3) high-resolution diffusion imaging. Relative to the FSE-PROPELLER method, the MGREP sequence was found to yield quantitative T2* values, increase SNR by ∼40% without any increase in acquisition time or RF energy deposition, and noticeably improve image quality in high-resolution diffusion maps. In addition, the new motion algorithm was found to improve the performance considerably in motion-artifact reduction. ^ Overall, this work demonstrated a number of enhancements and extensions to existing PROPELLER techniques. The new technical capabilities of PROPELLER imaging, developed in this thesis research, are expected to serve as the foundation for further expanding the scope of PROPELLER applications. ^

Analyzing the function of myogenin in adult satellite cells through the construction of a myogenin conditional allele

Although mechanisms regulating the formation of embryonic skeletal muscle are well characterized, less is known about muscle formation in postnatal life. This disparity is unfortunate because the largest increases in skeletal muscle mass occur after birth. Adult muscle stem cells (satellite cells) appear to recapitulate the events that occur in embryonic myoblasts. In particular, the myogenic basic helix-loop-helix factors, which have crucial functions in embryonic muscle development, are assumed to have similar roles in postnatal muscle formation. Here, I test this assumption by determining the role of the myogenic regulator myogenin in postnatal life. Myogenin-null mice die at birth, necessitating the generation of floxed alleles of myogenin and the use of cre-recombinase lines to delete myogenin. Removing myogenin before embryonic muscle development resulted in myofiber deficiencies identical to those observed in myogenin-null mice. However, mice in which myogenin was deleted following embryonic muscle development had normal skeletal muscle, except for modest alterations in MRF4 and MyoD expression. Notably, myogenin-deleted mice were 30% smaller than controls, suggesting that myogenin's absence disrupted general body growth. These results suggest that skeletal muscle growth in postnatal life is controlled by mechanisms distinct from those occurring in embryonic muscle development. ^

A conditional Mdm2 allele shows the importance of Mdm2 in heart development

Over 50% of sporadic tumors in humans have a p53 mutation highlighting its importance as a tumor suppressor. Considering additional mutations in other genes involved in p53 pathways, every tumor probably has mutant p53 or impaired p53-mediated functions. In response to a variety of cellular and genotoxic stresses, p53, mainly through its transcriptional activity, induces pathways involved in apoptosis and growth arrest. In these circumstances and under normal situations, p53 must be tightly regulated. Mdm2 is an important regulator of p53. Mdm2 inhibits p53 function by binding and blocking its transactivation domain. In addition, Mdm2 helps target p53 for degradation through its E3 ligase activity. Mdm2 null mice are embryonic lethal due to apoptosis in the blastocysts. However, a p53 null background rescues this lethality demonstrating the importance of the p53-Mdm2 interaction, particularly during development. The lethality of the Mdm2 null mouse prior to implantation limits the ability to investigate the role of Mdm2 in regulating p53 in a temporal and tissue specific manner. Does p53 need to be regulated in all tissues throughout the life of a mouse? Does Mdm2 always have to regulate it? To address these questions, we created a conditional Mdm2 allele. The conditional allele, Mdm2FM, in the presence of Cre recombinase results in the deletion of exons 5 and 6 of Mdm2 (most of the p53 binding domain) and represents a null allele. ^ The Mdm2FM allele was crossed with a heart muscle specific Cre expressing mouse (α-myosin heavy chain promoter driven Cre) to ask whether Mdm2 acts as a negative regulator of p53 in the heart. The heart is the most prominent organ early in embryogenesis and is shaped by cell death and proliferation. p53 does not appear to be active in the heart in response to some types of stress, so it remained to be determined if it has to be regulated in normal heart development. Loss of Mdm2 in the heart results in heart defects as early as E9.5. Loss of Mdm2 results in stabilized p53 and apoptosis. This apoptosis leads to a thinning of the myocardial wall particularly in the ventricles and abnormal ventricular structure. Eventually the abnormal heart fails resulting in lethality by E13.5. The embryonic lethality is rescued in a p53 null background. Thus, Mdm2 is important in regulating p53 in the development of the heart. ^

The role of workplace absence as an organizational mechanism in predicting employee alcohol and drug disorders

Background. EAP programs for airline pilots in companies with a well developed recovery management program are known to reduce pilot absenteeism following treatment. Given the costs and safety consequences to society, it is important to identify pilots who may be experiencing an AOD disorder to get them into treatment. ^ Hypotheses. This study investigated the predictive power of workplace absenteeism in identifying alcohol or drug disorders (AOD). The first hypothesis was that higher absenteeism in a 12-month period is associated with higher risk that an employee is experiencing AOD. The second hypothesis was that AOD treatment would reduce subsequent absence rates and the costs of replacing pilots on missed flights. ^ Methods. A case control design using eight years (time period) of monthly archival absence data (53,000 pay records) was conducted with a sample of (N = 76) employees having an AOD diagnosis (cases) matched 1:4 with (N = 304) non-diagnosed employees (controls) of the same profession and company (male commercial airline pilots). Cases and controls were matched on the variables age, rank and date of hire. Absence rate was defined as sick time hours used over the sum of the minimum guarantee pay hours annualized using the months the pilot worked for the year. Conditional logistic regression was used to determine if absence predicts employees experiencing an AOD disorder, starting 3 years prior to the cases receiving the AOD diagnosis. A repeated measures ANOVA, t tests and rate ratios (with 95% confidence intervals) were conducted to determine differences between cases and controls in absence usage for 3 years pre and 5 years post treatment. Mean replacement costs were calculated for sick leave usage 3 years pre and 5 years post treatment to estimate the cost of sick leave from the perspective of the company. ^ Results. Sick leave, as measured by absence rate, predicted the risk of being diagnosed with an AOD disorder (OR 1.10, 95% CI = 1.06, 1.15) during the 12 months prior to receiving the diagnosis. Mean absence rates for diagnosed employees increased over the three years before treatment, particularly in the year before treatment, whereas the controls’ did not (three years, x = 6.80 vs. 5.52; two years, x = 7.81 vs. 6.30, and one year, x = 11.00cases vs. 5.51controls. In the first year post treatment compared to the year prior to treatment, rate ratios indicated a significant (60%) post treatment reduction in absence rates (OR = 0.40, CI = 0.28, 0.57). Absence rates for cases remained lower than controls for the first three years after completion of treatment. Upon discharge from the FAA and company’s three year AOD monitoring program, case’s absence rates increased slightly during the fourth year (controls, x = 0.09, SD = 0.14, cases, x = 0.12, SD = 0.21). However, the following year, their mean absence rates were again below those of the controls (controls, x = 0.08, SD = 0.12, cases, x¯ = 0.06, SD = 0.07). Significant reductions in costs associated with replacing pilots calling in sick, were found to be 60% less, between the year of diagnosis for the cases and the first year after returning to work. A reduction in replacement costs continued over the next two years for the treated employees. ^ Conclusions. This research demonstrates the potential for workplace absences as an active organizational surveillance mechanism to assist managers and supervisors in identifying employees who may be experiencing or at risk of experiencing an alcohol/drug disorder. Currently, many workplaces use only performance problems and ignore the employee’s absence record. A referral to an EAP or alcohol/drug evaluation based on the employee’s absence/sick leave record as incorporated into company policy can provide another useful indicator that may also carry less stigma, thus reducing barriers to seeking help. This research also confirms two conclusions heretofore based only on cross-sectional studies: (1) higher absence rates are associated with employees experiencing an AOD disorder; (2) treatment is associated with lower costs for replacing absent pilots. Due to the uniqueness of the employee population studied (commercial airline pilots) and the organizational documentation of absence, the generalizability of this study to other professions and occupations should be considered limited. ^ Transition to Practice. The odds ratios for the relationship between absence rates and an AOD diagnosis are precise; the OR for year of diagnosis indicates the likelihood of being diagnosed increases 10% for every hour change in sick leave taken. In practice, however, a pilot uses approximately 20 hours of sick leave for one trip, because the replacement will have to be paid the guaranteed minimum of 20 hour. Thus, the rate based on hourly changes is precise but not practical. ^ To provide the organization with practical recommendations the yearly mean absence rates were used. A pilot flies on average, 90 hours a month, 1080 annually. Cases used almost twice the mean rate of sick time the year prior to diagnosis (T-1) compared to controls (cases, x = .11, controls, x = .06). Cases are expected to use on average 119 hours annually (total annual hours*mean annual absence rate), while controls will use 60 hours. The cases’ 60 hours could translate to 3 trips of 20 hours each. Management could use a standard of 80 hours or more of sick time claimed in a year as the threshold for unacceptable absence, a 25% increase over the controls (a cost to the company of approximately of $4000). At the 80-hour mark, the Chief Pilot would be able to call the pilot in for a routine check as to the nature of the pilot’s excessive absence. This management action would be based on a company standard, rather than a behavioral or performance issue. Using absence data in this fashion would make it an active surveillance mechanism. ^

Distribution of quality adjusted life expectancy: A systems approach

Statistical methods are developed which assess survival data for two attributes; (1) prolongation of life, (2) quality of life. Health state transition probabilities correspond to prolongation of life and are modeled as a discrete-time semi-Markov process. Imbedded within the sojourn time of a particular health state are the quality of life transitions. They reflect events which differentiate perceptions of pain and suffering over a fixed time period. Quality of life transition probabilities are derived from the assumptions of a simple Markov process. These probabilities depend on the health state currently occupied and the next health state to which a transition is made. Utilizing the two forms of attributes the model has the capability to estimate the distribution of expected quality adjusted life years (in addition to the distribution of expected survival times). The expected quality of life can also be estimated within the health state sojourn time making more flexible the assessment of utility preferences. The methods are demonstrated on a subset of follow-up data from the Beta Blocker Heart Attack Trial (BHAT). This model contains the structure necessary to make inferences when assessing a general survival problem with a two dimensional outcome. ^