Environmental and technology policies for climate mitigation

We assess different policies for reducing carbon dioxide emissions and promoting innovation and diffusion of renewable energy. We evaluate the relative performance of policies according to incentives provided for emissions reduction, efficiency, and other outcomes. We also assess how the nature of technological progress through learning and research and development (R&D), and the degree of knowledge spillovers, affects the desirability of different policies. Due to knowledge spillovers, optimal policy involves a portfolio of different instruments targeted at emissions, learning, and R&D. Although the relative cost of individual policies in achieving reductions depends on parameter values and the emissions target, in a numerical application to the U.S. electricity sector, the ranking is roughly as follows: (1) emissions price, (2) emissions performance standard, (3) fossil power tax, (4) renewables share requirement, (5) renewables subsidy, and (6) R&D subsidy. Nonetheless, an optimal portfolio of policies achieves emissions reductions at a significantly lower cost than any single policy. © 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling endogenous technological change for climate policy analysis

The approach used to model technological change in a climate policy model is a critical determinant of its results in terms of the time path of CO2 prices and costs required to achieve various emission reduction goals. We provide an overview of the different approaches used in the literature, with an emphasis on recent developments regarding endogenous technological change, research and development, and learning. Detailed examination sheds light on the salient features of each approach, including strengths, limitations, and policy implications. Key issues include proper accounting for the opportunity costs of climate-related knowledge generation, treatment of knowledge spillovers and appropriability, and the empirical basis for parameterizing technological relationships. No single approach appears to dominate on all these dimensions, and different approaches may be preferred depending on the purpose of the analysis, be it positive or normative. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The toxicology of climate change: environmental contaminants in a warming world.

Climate change induced by anthropogenic warming of the earth's atmosphere is a daunting problem. This review examines one of the consequences of climate change that has only recently attracted attention: namely, the effects of climate change on the environmental distribution and toxicity of chemical pollutants. A review was undertaken of the scientific literature (original research articles, reviews, government and intergovernmental reports) focusing on the interactions of toxicants with the environmental parameters, temperature, precipitation, and salinity, as altered by climate change. Three broad classes of chemical toxicants of global significance were the focus: air pollutants, persistent organic pollutants (POPs), including some organochlorine pesticides, and other classes of pesticides. Generally, increases in temperature will enhance the toxicity of contaminants and increase concentrations of tropospheric ozone regionally, but will also likely increase rates of chemical degradation. While further research is needed, climate change coupled with air pollutant exposures may have potentially serious adverse consequences for human health in urban and polluted regions. Climate change producing alterations in: food webs, lipid dynamics, ice and snow melt, and organic carbon cycling could result in increased POP levels in water, soil, and biota. There is also compelling evidence that increasing temperatures could be deleterious to pollutant-exposed wildlife. For example, elevated water temperatures may alter the biotransformation of contaminants to more bioactive metabolites and impair homeostasis. The complex interactions between climate change and pollutants may be particularly problematic for species living at the edge of their physiological tolerance range where acclimation capacity may be limited. In addition to temperature increases, regional precipitation patterns are projected to be altered with climate change. Regions subject to decreases in precipitation may experience enhanced volatilization of POPs and pesticides to the atmosphere. Reduced precipitation will also increase air pollution in urbanized regions resulting in negative health effects, which may be exacerbated by temperature increases. Regions subject to increased precipitation will have lower levels of air pollution, but will likely experience enhanced surface deposition of airborne POPs and increased run-off of pesticides. Moreover, increases in the intensity and frequency of storm events linked to climate change could lead to more severe episodes of chemical contamination of water bodies and surrounding watersheds. Changes in salinity may affect aquatic organisms as an independent stressor as well as by altering the bioavailability and in some instances increasing the toxicity of chemicals. A paramount issue will be to identify species and populations especially vulnerable to climate-pollutant interactions, in the context of the many other physical, chemical, and biological stressors that will be altered with climate change. Moreover, it will be important to predict tipping points that might trigger or accelerate synergistic interactions between climate change and contaminant exposures.

Designing Climate Mitigation Policy

This paper provides an exhaustive review of critical issues in the design of climate mitigation policy by pulling together key findings and controversies from diverse literatures on mitigation costs, damage valuation, policy instrument choice, technological innovation, and international climate policy. We begin with the broadest issue of how high assessments suggest the near and medium term price on greenhouse gases would need to be, both under cost-effective stabilization of global climate and under net benefit maximization or Pigouvian emissions pricing. The remainder of the paper focuses on the appropriate scope of regulation, issues in policy instrument choice, complementary technology policy, and international policy architectures.

Discounting the Benefits of Climate Change Policies Using Uncertain Rates

Evaluating environmental policies, such as the mitigation of greenhouse gases, frequently requires balancing near-term mitigation costs against long-term environmental benefits. Conventional approaches to valuing such investments hold interest rates constant, but the authors contend that there is a real degree of uncertainty in future interest rates. This leads to a higher valuation of future benefits relative to conventional methods that ignore interest rate uncertainty.

A genetically engineered thermally responsive sustained release curcumin depot to treat neuroinflammation.

Radiculopathy, a painful neuroinflammation that can accompany intervertebral disc herniation, is associated with locally increased levels of the pro-inflammatory cytokine tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα). Systemic administration of TNF antagonists for radiculopathy in the clinic has shown mixed results, and there is growing interest in the local delivery of anti-inflammatory drugs to treat this pathology as well as similar inflammatory events of peripheral nerve injury. Curcumin, a known antagonist of TNFα in multiple cell types and tissues, was chemically modified and conjugated to a thermally responsive elastin-like polypeptide (ELP) to create an injectable depot for sustained, local delivery of curcumin to treat neuroinflammation. ELPs are biopolymers capable of thermally-triggered in situ depot formation that have been successfully employed as drug carriers and biomaterials in several applications. ELP-curcumin conjugates were shown to display high drug loading, rapidly release curcumin in vitro via degradable carbamate bonds, and retain in vitro bioactivity against TNFα-induced cytotoxicity and monocyte activation with IC50 only two-fold higher than curcumin. When injected proximal to the sciatic nerve in mice via intramuscular (i.m.) injection, ELP-curcumin conjugates underwent a thermally triggered soluble-insoluble phase transition, leading to in situ formation of a depot that released curcumin over 4days post-injection and decreased plasma AUC 7-fold.

Development of Stimulus-Responsive Ligands for the Modulation of Copper and Iron Coordination

The ability to manipulate the coordination chemistry of metal ions has significant ramifications for the study and treatment of metal-related health concerns, including iron overload, UV skin damage, and microbial infection among many other conditions. To address this concern, chelating agents that change their metal binding characteristics in response to external stimuli have been synthesized and characterized by several spectroscopic and chromatographic analytical methods. The primary stimuli of interest for this work are light and hydrogen peroxide.

Herein we report the previously unrecognized photochemistry of aroylhydrazone metal chelator ((E)-N′-[1-(2-hydroxyphenyl)ethyliden]isonicotinoylhydrazide) (HAPI) and its relation to HAPI metal binding properties. Based on promising initial results, a series of HAPI analogues was prepared to probe the structure-function relationships of aroylhydrazone photochemistry. These efforts elucidate the tunable nature of several aroylhydrazone photoswitching properties.

Ongoing efforts in this laboratory seek to develop compounds called prochelators that exhibit a switch from low to high metal binding affinity upon activation by a stimulus of interest. In this context, we present new strategies to install multiple desired functions into a single structure. The prochelator 2-((E)-1-(2-isonicotinoylhydrazono)ethyl)phenyl (E)-3-(2,4-dihydroxyphenyl)acrylate (PC-HAPI) is masked with a photolabile trans-cinnamic acid protecting group that releases umbelliferone, a UV-absorbing, antioxidant coumarin along with a chelating agent upon UV irradiation. In addition to the antioxidant effects of the coumarin, the released chelator (HAPI) inhibits metal-catalyzed production of damaging reactive oxygen species. Finally a peroxide-sensitive prochelator quinolin-8-yl (Z)-3-(4-hydroxy-2-((4-(4,4,5,5-tetramethyl-1,3,2-dioxaborolan-2-yl)benzyl)oxy)phenyl)acrylate (BCQ) has been prepared using a novel synthetic route for functionalized cis-cinnamate esters. BCQ uses a novel masking strategy to trigger a 90-fold increase in fluorescence emission, along with the release of a desired chelator, in the presence of hydrogen peroxide.

CMIP5 climate model analyses: Climate extremes in the United States

Given the increases in spatial resolution and other improvements in climate modeling capabilities over the last decade since the CMIP3 simulations were completed, CMIP5 provides a unique opportunity to assess scientific understanding of climate variability and change over a range of historical and future conditions. With participation from over 20 modeling groups and more than 40 global models, CMIP5 represents the latest and most ambitious coordinated international climate model intercomparison exercise to date. Observations dating back to 1900 show that the temperatures in the twenty-first century have the largest spatial extent of record breaking and much above normal mean monthly maximum and minimum temperatures. The 20-yr return value of the annual maximum or minimum daily temperature is one measure of changes in rare temperature extremes.

Contribution of the North Atlantic subtropical high to regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating southeastern United States summer precipitation

© 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.This study assesses the skill of advanced regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating southeastern United States (SE US) summer precipitation and explores the physical mechanisms responsible for the simulation skill at a process level. Analysis of the RCM output for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program indicates that the RCM simulations of summer precipitation show the largest biases and a remarkable spread over the SE US compared to other regions in the contiguous US. The causes of such a spread are investigated by performing simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a next-generation RCM developed by the US National Center for Atmospheric Research. The results show that the simulated biases in SE US summer precipitation are due mainly to the misrepresentation of the modeled North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) western ridge. In the WRF simulations, the NASH western ridge shifts 7° northwestward when compared to that in the reanalysis ensemble, leading to a dry bias in the simulated summer precipitation according to the relationship between the NASH western ridge and summer precipitation over the southeast. Experiments utilizing the four dimensional data assimilation technique further suggest that the improved representation of the circulation patterns (i.e., wind fields) associated with the NASH western ridge substantially reduces the bias in the simulated SE US summer precipitation. Our analysis of circulation dynamics indicates that the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations is significantly influenced by the simulated planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes over the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, a decrease (increase) in the simulated PBL height tends to stabilize (destabilize) the lower troposphere over the Gulf of Mexico, and thus inhibits (favors) the onset and/or development of convection. Such changes in tropical convection induce a tropical–extratropical teleconnection pattern, which modulates the circulation along the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations and contributes to the modeled precipitation biases over the SE US. In conclusion, our study demonstrates that the NASH western ridge is an important factor responsible for the RCM skill in simulating SE US summer precipitation. Furthermore, the improvements in the PBL parameterizations for the Gulf of Mexico might help advance RCM skill in representing the NASH western ridge circulation and summer precipitation over the SE US.

Shifting ranges and conservation challenges for lemurs in the face of climate change.

Geospatial modeling is one of the most powerful tools available to conservation biologists for estimating current species ranges of Earth's biodiversity. Now, with the advantage of predictive climate models, these methods can be deployed for understanding future impacts on threatened biota. Here, we employ predictive modeling under a conservative estimate of future climate change to examine impacts on the future abundance and geographic distributions of Malagasy lemurs. Using distribution data from the primary literature, we employed ensemble species distribution models and geospatial analyses to predict future changes in species distributions. Current species distribution models (SDMs) were created within the BIOMOD2 framework that capitalizes on ten widely used modeling techniques. Future and current SDMs were then subtracted from each other, and areas of contraction, expansion, and stability were calculated. Model overprediction is a common issue associated Malagasy taxa. Accordingly, we introduce novel methods for incorporating biological data on dispersal potential to better inform the selection of pseudo-absence points. This study predicts that 60% of the 57 species examined will experience a considerable range of reductions in the next seventy years entirely due to future climate change. Of these species, range sizes are predicted to decrease by an average of 59.6%. Nine lemur species (16%) are predicted to expand their ranges, and 13 species (22.8%) distribution sizes were predicted to be stable through time. Species ranges will experience severe shifts, typically contractions, and for the majority of lemur species, geographic distributions will be considerably altered. We identify three areas in dire need of protection, concluding that strategically managed forest corridors must be a key component of lemur and other biodiversity conservation strategies. This recommendation is all the more urgent given that the results presented here do not take into account patterns of ongoing habitat destruction relating to human activities.

Agronomic and economic viability of Miscanthus x giganteus as a novel biofuel in the Maryland climate

Gemstone Team Biofuels

Molecular engineering of mechanophore activity for stress-responsive polymeric materials

© The Royal Society of Chemistry.Force reactive functional groups, or mechanophores, have emerged as the basis of a potential strategy for sensing and countering stress-induced material failure. The general utility of this strategy is limited, however, because the levels of mechanophore activation in the bulk are typically low and observed only under large, typically irreversible strains. Strategies that enhance activation are therefore quite useful. Molecular-level design principles by which to engineer enhanced mechanophore activity are reviewed, with an emphasis on quantitative structure-activity studies determined for a family of gem-dihalocyclopropane mechanophores. This journal is

Implications of shale gas development for climate change.

Advances in technologies for extracting oil and gas from shale formations have dramatically increased U.S. production of natural gas. As production expands domestically and abroad, natural gas prices will be lower than without shale gas. Lower prices have two main effects: increasing overall energy consumption, and encouraging substitution away from sources such as coal, nuclear, renewables, and electricity. We examine the evidence and analyze modeling projections to understand how these two dynamics affect greenhouse gas emissions. Most evidence indicates that natural gas as a substitute for coal in electricity production, gasoline in transport, and electricity in buildings decreases greenhouse gases, although as an electricity substitute this depends on the electricity mix displaced. Modeling suggests that absent substantial policy changes, increased natural gas production slightly increases overall energy use, more substantially encourages fuel-switching, and that the combined effect slightly alters economy wide GHG emissions; whether the net effect is a slight decrease or increase depends on modeling assumptions including upstream methane emissions. Our main conclusions are that natural gas can help reduce GHG emissions, but in the absence of targeted climate policy measures, it will not substantially change the course of global GHG concentrations. Abundant natural gas can, however, help reduce the costs of achieving GHG reduction goals.

Modeling economy-wide vs sectoral climate policies using combined aggregate-sectoral models

Economic analyses of climate change policies frequently focus on reductions of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions via market-based, economy-wide policies. The current course of environment and energy policy debate in the United States, however, suggests an alternative outcome: sector-based and/or inefficiently designed policies. This paper uses a collection of specialized, sector-based models in conjunction with a computable general equilibrium model of the economy to examine and compare these policies at an aggregate level. We examine the relative cost of different policies designed to achieve the same quantity of emission reductions. We find that excluding a limited number of sectors from an economy-wide policy does not significantly raise costs. Focusing policy solely on the electricity and transportation sectors doubles costs, however, and using non-market policies can raise cost by a factor of ten. These results are driven in part by, and are sensitive to, our modeling of pre-existing tax distortions. Copyright © 2006 by the IAEE. All rights reserved.