Modelling the flow of congestive heart failure patients through a hospital system

The number of hospital admissions in England due to heart failure is projected to increase by over 50% during the next 25 years. This will incur greater pressures on hospital managers to allocate resources in an effective manner. A reliable indicator for measuring the quantity of resources consumed by hospital patients is their length of stay (LOS) in care. This paper proposes modelling the length of time heart failure patients spend in hospital using a special type of Markov model, where the flow of patients through hospital can be thought of as consisting of three stages of care—short-, medium- and longer-term care. If it is assumed that new admissions into the ward are replacements for discharges, such a model may be used to investigate the case-mix of patients in hospital and the expected patient turnover during some specified period of time. An example is illustrated by considering hospital admissions to a Belfast hospital in Northern Ireland, between 2000 and 2004.

Safety and Immunogenicity of a Novel Recombinant Subunit Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccine (BBG2Na) in Healthy Young Adults

A novel recombinant respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) subunit vaccine, designated BBG2Na, was administered to 108 healthy adults randomly assigned to receive 10, 100, or 300 μg of BBG2Na in aluminum phosphate or saline placebo. Each subject received 1, 2, or 3 intramuscular injections of the assigned dose at monthly intervals. Local and systemic reactions were mild, and no evidence of harmful properties of BBG2Na was reported. The highest ELISA and virus-neutralizing (VN) antibody responses were evident in the 100- and 300-μg groups; second or third injections provided no significant boosts against RSV-derived antigens. BBG2Na induced ⩾2-fold and ⩾4-fold increases in G2Na-specific ELISA units in up to 100% and 57% of subjects, respectively; corresponding RSV-A–specific responses were 89% and 67%. Furthermore, up to 71% of subjects had ⩾2-fold VN titer increases. Antibody responses to 2 murine lung protective epitopes were also highly boosted after vaccination. Therefore, BBG2Na is safe, well tolerated, and highly immunogenic in RSV-seropositive adults