A modified Weibull distribution

A new lifetime distribution capable of modeling a bathtub-shaped hazard-rate function is proposed. The proposed model is derived as a limiting case of the Beta Integrated Model and has both the Weibull distribution and Type I extreme value distribution as special cases. The model can be considered as another useful 3-parameter generalization of the Weibull distribution. An advantage of the model is that the model parameters can be estimated easily based on a Weibull probability paper (WPP) plot that serves as a tool for model identification. Model characterization based on the WPP plot is studied. A numerical example is provided and comparison with another Weibull extension, the exponentiated Weibull, is also discussed. The proposed model compares well with other competing models to fit data that exhibits a bathtub-shaped hazard-rate function.

Study of n-fold Weibull competing risk model

This paper deals with an n-fold Weibull competing risk model. A characterisation of the WPP plot is given along with estimation of model parameters when modelling a given data set. These are illustrated through two examples. A study of the different possible shapes for the density and failure rate functions is also presented. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of melanocortin-1 receptor polymorphism in skin cancer risk phenotypes

We have examined melanocortin-1 receptor (MC1R) variant allele frequencies in the general population and in a collection of adolescent dizygotic and monozygotic twins to determine statistical associations of pigmentation phenotypes with increased skin cancer risk. This included hair and skin color, freckling, mole count and sun exposed skin reflectance. Nine variants were studied and designated as either strong R (OR = 63; 95% CI 32-140) or weak r (OR = 5; 95% CI 3-11) red hair alleles. Penetrance of each MC1R variant allele was consistent with an allelic model where effects were multiplicative for red hair but additive for skin reflectance. To assess the interaction of the brown eye color gene BEY2/OCA2 on the phenotypic effects of variant MC1R alleles we imputed OCA2 genotype in the twin collection. A modifying effect of OCA2 on MC1R variant alleles was seen on constitutive skin color, freckling and mole count. In order to study the individual effects of these variants on pigmentation phenotype we have established a series of human primary melanocyte strains genotyped for the MC1R receptor. These include strains which are MC1R wild-type consensus, variant heterozygotes, and homozygotes for strong R alleles Arg151Cys and Arg160Trp. Ultrastructural analysis demonstrated that only consensus strains contained stage III and IV melanosomes in their terminal dendrites whereas Arg151Cys and Arg160Trp homozygous strains contained only immature stage I and II melanosomes. Such genetic association studies combined with the functional analysis of MC1R variant alleles in melanocytic cells should provide a link in understanding the association between pigmentary phototypes and skin cancer risk.

Sequencing batch reactor technology: the key to a BP refinery (Bulwer Island) upgraded environmental protection system - a low cost lagoon based retro-fit

BP Refinery (Bulwer Island) Ltd (BP) located on the eastern Australian coast is currently undergoing a major expansion as a part of the Queensland Clean Fuels Project. The associated wastewater treatment plant upgrade will provide a better quality of treated effluent than is currently possible with the existing infrastructure, and which will be of a sufficiently high standard to meet not only the requirements of imposed environmental legislation but also BP's environmental objectives. A number of challenges were faced when considering the upgrade, particularly; cost constraints and limited plot space, highly variable wastewater, toxicity issues, and limited available hydraulic head. Sequencing Batch Reactor (SBR) Technology was chosen for the lagoon upgrade based on the following; SBR technology allowed a retro-fit of the existing earthen lagoon without the need for any additional substantial concrete structures, a dual lagoon system allowed partial treatment of wastewaters during construction, SBRs give substantial process flexibility, SBRs have the ability to easily modify process parameters without any physical modifications, and significant cost benefits. This paper presents the background to this application, an outline of laboratory studies carried out on the wastewater and details the full scale design issues and methods for providing a cost effective, efficient treatment system using the existing lagoon system.

Pasture grazing by black-striped wallabies (Macropus dorsalis) in central Queensland

Black-striped wallabies (Macropus dorsalis) are uncommon to rare in most of their former range, yet in parts of central Queensland where they are still locally common they are regarded as a serious pasture pest. There is considerable pressure from cattle graziers to reduce their density because of the putative damage that they cause to cattle pasture. Here we examined the effects of this species and other herbivores on pasture by monitoring vegetation cover between 1993 and 1998 in exclosures in brigalow, and poplar box communities on three grazing properties in the Maranoa region. The exclosures selectively allowed access to either: all vertebrate grazers including cattle; rabbits, bettongs, and wallabies; rabbits and bettongs; no vertebrate grazers. The greatest effects on the structure and species composition of pasture were caused by cattle, but wallabies did consume commercially important quantities of grass at some times of the year. This conflicts with local opinion that sees wallabies as the major cause of pasture degradation. Herein lies the management problem that sees continued reduction in wallaby habitat, and fragmentation of the species.

Winding patterns for actively shielded shim coils with asymmetric target-fields

A method is presented for calculating the currents and winding patterns required to design independent zonal and tesseral shim coils for magnetic resonance imaging. Both actively shielded and unshielded configurations are considered, and the region of interest can be located asymmetrically with respect to the coil's length. Streamline, target-field and Fourier-series methods are utilized. The desired target-field is specified at two cylindrical radii, on and inside a circular conducting cylinder of length 2L and radius a. The specification is over some asymmetric portion pL < z < qL of the coil's length (-1 < p < q < 1). Arbitrary functions are used in the outer sections, -L < z < pL and qL < z < L, to ensure continuity of the magnetic field across the entire length of the coil. The entire field is then periodically extended as a half-range cosine Fourier series about either end of the coil. The resultant Fourier coefficients are then substituted into the Fourier-series expressions for the internal and external magnetic fields, and current densities and stream functions on both the primary coil and shield. A contour plot of the stream function directly gives the required coil winding patterns. Spherical harmonic analysis and shielding analysis on field calculations from a ZX shim coil indicate that example designs and theory are well matched.

On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

Conformational changes in SP-B as a function of surface pressure

X-ray reflectivity of bovine and sheep surfactant-associated protein B (SP-B) monolayers is used in conjunction with pressure-area isotherms and protein models to suggest that the protein undergoes changes in its tertiary structure at the air/water interface under the influence of surface pressure, indicating the likely importance of such changes to the phenomena of protein squeeze out as well as lipid exchange between the air-water interface and subphase structures. We describe an algorithm based on the well-established box- or layer-models that greatly assists the fitting of such unknown scattering-length density profiles, and which takes the available instrumental resolution into account. Scattering-length density profiles from neutron reflectivity of bovine SP-B monolayers on aqueous subphases are shown to be consistent with the exchange of a large number of labile protons as well as the inclusion of a significant amount of water, which is partly squeezed out of the protein monolayer at elevated surface pressures.

Decreased coumarin 7-hydroxylase activities and CYP2A6 expression levels in humans caused by genetic polymorphism in CYP2A6 promoter region (CYP2A6*9)

One of seven poor metabolizers of coumarin found in Thai subjects was previously genotyped as heterozygote for the CYP2A6*4 (whole deletion) and CYP2A6*9. Thus, we aimed to investigate the relationship between the genetic polymorphism in the TATA box of the CYP2A6 gene (CYP2A6*9), expression levels of CYP2A6 mRNA and coumarin 7-hydroxylase activities in human livers. Levels of CYP2A6 mRNA were quantified by real-time quantitative reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction. The mean expression levels of CYP2A6 mRNA in individuals with CYP2A6*1/*4, CYP2A6*1/*9 and CYP2A6*4/*9 were 58%, 71% and 21% of the individuals genotyped as CYP2A6*1/*1, respectively. The mean in-vitro coumarin 7-hydroxylase activities in subjects carrying CYP2A6*1/*4, CYP2A6*1/*9 and CYP2A6*4/*9 were 41%, 71% and 12%, respectively, compared to those of the subjects judged as wild-type. Vmax values for coumarin 7-hydroxylation in the liver microsomes from human subjects with genotypes of CYP2A6*1/*1, CYP2A6*1/*4, CYP2A6*1/*9 and CYP2A6*4/*9 were 0.58, 0.26, 0.44 and 0.13 nmol/min/nmol total P450, respectively. CYP2A6 protein levels in human liver microsomes with the CYP2A6*4 and the CYP2A6*9 alleles were markedly decreased. These results suggest that the genetic polymorphism in the promoter region of the CYP2A6 gene (CYP2A6*9) reduced the expression levels of CYP2A6 mRNA and protein in human livers, resulting in the decrease of coumarin 7-hydroxylase activities. Individuals judged as CYP2A6*4/*9 were expected to be poor metabolizers, having extremely low activity of CYP2A6.

Field hydraulic properties of an Alfisol under various fallow systems in southwestern Nigeria

The effects of various fallow management systems and cropping intensities on water infiltration were measured on an Alfisol at Ibadan in southwestern Nigeria. The objective was to determine the influence of the land use systems (a combination of crop-fallow sequences and intercropping types) on soil hydraulic properties obtained by disc permeameter and double-ring infiltration measurements. The experiment was established in 1989 as a split-plot design with four replications. The main plots were natural fallow, planted Pueraria phaseoloides and planted Leucaena leucocephala. The subplots were 1 year of maize/cassava intercrop followed by 3-year fallow (25% cropping intensity), or 2-year fallow (33% cropping intensity), or 1-year fallow (50% cropping intensity), or no fallow period (100% cropping intensity). Water infiltration rates and sorptivities were measured under saturated and unsaturated flow. Irrespective of land use, infiltration rates at the soil surface (121-324 cm h(-1)) were greater than those measured at 30 cm depth (55-144 cm h(-1)). This indicated that fewer large pores were present below 30 cm depth compared with 0-30 cm, depth. Despite some temporal variation, sorptivities with the highest mean value of 93.5 cm h(-1/2) increased as the cropping intensity decreased, suggesting a more continuous macropore system under less intensive land use systems. This was most likely due to continuous biopores created by perennial vegetation under long fallow systems. Intercropped maize and cassava yields also increased as cropping intensity decreased. The weak relationship between crop yields and hydraulic conductivity/infiltration rates suggests that the rates were not limiting.

Determination of viscosity of some Australian honeys based on composition

Rheological properties of four unprocessed unifloral Australian honeys (heath, tea tree, yapunya, and yellow box) and an artificial honey were analysed at 20degreesC. A model previously used to describe viscosity data of various sugar and sugar mixtures was used to describe the concentration dependence of the viscosity of honey samples with varying moisture contents. The model successfully described the sugar concentration dependence of the unadulterated and medium moisture (70-85% solids) range honey samples.

Low-temperature single-crystal Raman and neutron-diffraction study of the hydrogenous ammonium copper(II) tutton salt and the deuterated analogue in the metastable state

Low-temperature (15 K) single-crystal neutron-diffraction structures and Raman spectra of the salts (NX4)(2)[CU(OX2)(6)](SO4)(2), where X = H or D, are reported. This study is concerned with the origin of the structural phase change that is known to occur upon deuteration. Data for the deuterated salt were measured in the metastable state, achieved by application of 500 bar of hydrostatic pressure at similar to303 K followed by cooling to 281 K and the subsequent release of pressure. This allows for the direct comparison between the hydrogenous and deuterated salts, in the same modification, at ambient pressure and low temperature. The Raman spectra provide no intimation of any significant change in the intermolecular bonding. Furthermore, structural differences are few, the largest being for the long Cu-O bond, which is 2.2834(5) and 2.2802(4) Angstrom for the hydrogenous and the deuterated salts, respectively. Calorimetric data for the deuterated salt are also presented, providing an estimate of 0.17(2) kJ/mol for the enthalpy difference between the two structural forms at 295.8(5) K. The structural data suggest that substitution of hydrogen for deuterium gives rise to changes in the hydrogen-bonding interactions that result in a slightly reduced force field about the copper(II) center. The small structural differences suggest different relative stabilities for the hydrogenous and deuterated salts, which may be sufficient to stabilize the hydrogenous salt in the anomalous structural form.

Crystallisation and moisture sorption properties of selected Australian unifloral honeys

The sorption properties of yapunyah (Eucalyptus ochropholia) and yellow box (Eucalyptus melliodora) honeys (Australian unifloral honeys) were investigated in a controlled relative humidity (RH) environment at 30degreesC for 71 days. The original water activity of the honeys affected the sorption properties. These two honeys absorbed moisture at and above 67.9% RH and desorbed moisture at and below 51.4% RH. The crystallisation behaviour of tea tree (Melaleuca quinquenervia) and yapunyah honeys was studied during storage at 13 and 23 degreesC. The degree of crystallisation was monitored by measuring the absorbance at 660 and 665 nm using a spectrophotometer. The heat-treated honeys did not show any sign of crystallisation after S months, whereas a seeding with precrystallised honey induced crystallisation of the same honeys. This crystallisation was more rapid at 13 than at 23degreesC. (C) 2003 Society of Chemical Industry.

Prediction of multilayer adsorption and capillary condensation phenomena in cylindrical mesopores

MCM-41 periodic mesoporous silicates with a high degree of structural ordering are synthesized and used as model adsorbents to study the isotherm prediction of nitrogen adsorption. The nitrogen adsorption isotherm at 77 K for a macroporous silica is measured and used in high-resolution alpha(s)-plot comparative analysis to determine the external surface area, total surface area and primary mesopore volume of the MCM-41 materials. Adsorption equilibrium data of nitrogen on the different pore size MCM-41 samples (pore diameters from 2.40 to 4.92 nm) are also obtained. Based on the Broekhoff and de Boer' thermodynamic analysis, the nitrogen adsorption isotherms for the different pore size MCM-41 samples are interpreted using a novel strategy, in which the parameters of an empirical expression, used to represent the potential of interaction between the adsorbate and adsorbent, are obtained by fitting only the multilayer region prior to capillary condensation for C-16 MCM-41. Subsequently the entire isotherm, including the phase transition, is predicted for all the different pore size MCM-41 samples without any fitting. The results show that the prediction of multilayer adsorption and total adsorbed amount are in good agreement with the experimental isotherms. The predictions of the relative pressure corresponding to capillary equilibrium (coexistence) transition agree remarkably with experimental data on the adsorption branch even for hysteretic isotherms, confirming that this is the branch appropriate for pore size distribution analysis. The impact of pore radius on the adsorption film thickness and capillary coexistence pressure is also investigated, and found to agree with the experimental data. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Investigation of the vapor-phase grafting of styrene onto PFA

Poly(tetrafluoroethylene-co-perfluoropropyI vinyl ether), PFA, was grafted with styrene from the vapor phase using a simultaneous radiation grafting method. The graft yields were measured as a function of the dose and dose rate and were found to be initially linearly dependent on the dose and independent of the dose rate up to dose rates of similar to3 kGy/h. However, at a dose rate of 6.2 kGy/h, the slope of the yield-grafting time plot decreased. Raman depth profiles of the grafts showed that the polystyrene concentrations were greatest near the surface of the grafted samples and decreased with depth. The maximum penetration depth of the graft depended on the radiation dose for a fixed dose rate. Fmoc-Rink loading tests showed that the grafts displayed superior loading compared to grafts prepared from bulk styrene or from styrene solutions other than methanol.