The representation of conditional expectations of non-Gaussian noise

For Wiener spaces conditional expectations and $L^{2}$-martingales w.r.t. the natural filtration have a natural representation in terms of chaos expansion. In this note an extension to larger classes of processes is discussed. In particular, it is pointed out that orthogonality of the chaos expansion is not required.

Sudden stratospheric warmings as noise-induced transitions

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are usually considered to be initiated by planetary wave activity. Here it is asked whether small-scale variability (e.g., related to gravity waves) can lead to SSWs given a certain amount of planetary wave activity that is by itself not sufficient to cause a SSW. A highly vertically truncated version of the Holton–Mass model of stratospheric wave–mean flow interaction, recently proposed by Ruzmaikin et al., is extended to include stochastic forcing. In the deterministic setting, this low-order model exhibits multiple stable equilibria corresponding to the undisturbed vortex and SSW state, respectively. Momentum forcing due to quasi-random gravity wave activity is introduced as an additive noise term in the zonal momentum equation. Two distinct approaches are pursued to study the stochastic system. First, the system, initialized at the undisturbed state, is numerically integrated many times to derive statistics of first passage times of the system undergoing a transition to the SSW state. Second, the Fokker–Planck equation corresponding to the stochastic system is solved numerically to derive the stationary probability density function of the system. Both approaches show that even small to moderate strengths of the stochastic gravity wave forcing can be sufficient to cause a SSW for cases for which the deterministic system would not have predicted a SSW.

A cost-effective high-throughput digital system for observation and acquisition of animal behavioral data

We have designed and implemented a low-cost digital system using closed-circuit television cameras coupled to a digital acquisition system for the recording of in vivo behavioral data in rodents and for allowing observation and recording of more than 10 animals simultaneously at a reduced cost, as compared with commercially available solutions. This system has been validated using two experimental rodent models: one involving chemically induced seizures and one assessing appetite and feeding. We present observational results showing comparable or improved levels of accuracy and observer consistency between this new system and traditional methods in these experimental models, discuss advantages of the presented system over conventional analog systems and commercially available digital systems, and propose possible extensions to the system and applications to nonrodent studies.

Can the frequency of blocking be described by a red noise process?

The frequency of persistent atmospheric blocking events in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is compared with the blocking frequency produced by a simple first-order Markov model designed to predict the time evolution of a blocking index [defined by the meridional contrast of potential temperature on the 2-PVU surface (1 PVU ≡ 1 × 10−6 K m2 kg−1 s−1)]. With the observed spatial coherence built into the model, it is able to reproduce the main regions of blocking occurrence and the frequencies of sector blocking very well. This underlines the importance of the climatological background flow in determining the locations of high blocking occurrence as being the regions where the mean midlatitude meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradient is weak. However, when only persistent blocking episodes are considered, the model is unable to simulate the observed frequencies. It is proposed that this persistence beyond that given by a red noise model is due to the self-sustaining nature of the blocking phenomenon.

Organic pollutants in animal products

It is necessary to assess the contamination of animal products by pollutants in order to protect human health. This can be achieved by understanding the processes whereby contaminants are introduced into the food chain. Such contamination can arise from the atmospheric deposition on to crops and soil or via contaminated feed. These processes are described and quantified with particular reference to the deposition of organic pollutants onto pasture. The transfer of the contaminants from the fodder and feed to the animal is also described. Finally, these processes are put in context by the illustration of how they are used in regulatory exposure models.

Phosphorus sorption and availability in soils amended with animal manures and sewage sludge

Soils that receive large applications of animal wastes and sewage sludge are vulnerable to releasing environmentally significant concentrations of dissolved P available to subsurface flow owing to the gradual saturation of the soil's P sorption capacity. This study evaluated P sorption (calculated from Langmuir isotherms) and availability of P (as CaCl2-P and resin P) in soils incubated for 20 d with poultry litter, poultry manure, cattle slurry, municipal sewage sludge, or KH2PO4, added on a P-equivalent basis (100 mg P kg(-1)). All the P sources had a marked negative effect on P sorption and a positive effect on P availability in all soils. In the cattle slurry- and KH2PO4- treated soils, the decreases in P sorption maximum (19-66%) and binding energy (25-89%) were consistently larger than the corresponding decreases (7-41% and 11-30%) in poultry litter-, poultry manure-, and sewage sludge-treated soils. The effects of cattle slurry and KH2PO4 on P availability were, in most cases, larger than those of the other P sources. In the poultry litter, poultry manure, and sewage sludge treatments, the increase in soil solution P was inversely related (R-2 = 0.75) to the input of Ca from these relatively high Ca (13.5-42 g kg(-1)) sources. Correlation analyses implied that the magnitude of the changes in P sorption and availability was not related to the water-extractable P content of the P sources. Future research on the sustainable application of organic wastes to agricultural soils needs to consider the non-P- as well as P-containing components of the waste.

Differences in phosphorus retention and release in soils amended with animal manures and sewage sludge

Excessive levels of P in agricultural soils pose a threat to local water quality. This study evaluated (i) time-dependent changes in soil P sorption (expressed as a phosphorus sorption index, PSI) and P availability (as resin P) during incubation (100 d) with poultry litter, cattle slurry, sewage sludge, or KH2PO4, added on a P-equivalent basis (100 mg P kg(-1)), and (ii) the subsequent kinetics of P release, measured by repeated extractions with a mixed cation-anion exchange resin. Soil exchangeable Ca and ammonium oxalate-extractable Fe and Al were also determined at 100 d of incubation. The small decrease in P sorption in the litter and sludge treatments (25%), compared with that in the slurry and KH2PO4 treatments (52%) between 20 and 100 d of incubation was attributed partly to the formation of new adsorption sites for P. Subsequent P release was described by a power equation: Resin P = a(extraction number)(b), where the constants a and b represent resin P obtained with a single extraction and the rate of P release per resin extraction, respectively. On average, the rate of P release decreased in the order: KH2PO4 and slurry > litter > sludge, and was inversely related to exchangeable Ca content of the incubated soils (R-2 = 0.57). The slower rates of P release in the litter and sludge treatments (P < 0.001) are attributed to the large values for exchangeable Ca (1050-2640 and 1070-2710 mg kg(-1), respectively) in these amended soils. Future research concerned with short-term declines in environmentally harmful levels of P in recently amended soils should consider the differential effects of the amendments on soil P dynamics.

Dissolution of phosphorus from animal bone char in 12 soils

Heat-treated animal bone char (ABC) has not previously been evaluated for its potential as a phosphorus (P) fertilizer. ABC, Gafsa phosphate rock (GPR) and triple superphosphate fertilizer (TSP) were incubated in 12 soils. Dissolved-P was assessed by extraction with NaOH and bioavailability with the Olsen extractant. The rate of P dissolution from ABC was described almost equally well by the Elovich and Power equations. After 145 days, the fraction of P dissolved ranged from 0 to 73% and to 56% for ABC and GPR, respectively. The most important soil properties determining P dissolution from ABC were pH and P sorption. P dissolution was not significant at soil pH > 6.1 (ABC) and > 5 (GPR) and the lower the pH, the greater the Dissolved-P. Dissolved-P also correlated positively and significantly with inorganic P sorption, measured by the Freundlich isotherm and the P sorption index of Bache and Williams (1971). Soil pH and P sorption index could be combined in multiple regression equations that use readily measured soil properties to predict the potential for ABC dissolution in a soil. Dissolution of P from GPR correlated with soil pH and exchangeable acidity. In comparison with GPR, ABC was a better source of available P, assessed by Olsen-P. In most soils, ABC increased Olsen-P immediately after application, including soils of relatively high pH in which GPR was ineffective. ABC is a P fertilizer of solubility intermediate between GPR and TSP.