Dynamics of air–sea CO2 fluxes in the northwestern European shelf based on voluntary observing ship and satellite observations

From January 2011 to December 2013, we constructed a comprehensive pCO2 data set based on voluntary observing ship (VOS) measurements in the western English Channel (WEC). We subsequently estimated surface pCO2 and air–sea CO2 fluxes in northwestern European continental shelf waters using multiple linear regressions (MLRs) from remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll a concentration (Chl a), wind speed (WND), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and modeled mixed layer depth (MLD). We developed specific MLRs for the seasonally stratified northern WEC (nWEC) and the permanently well-mixed southern WEC (sWEC) and calculated surface pCO2 with uncertainties of 17 and 16 μatm, respectively. We extrapolated the relationships obtained for the WEC based on the 2011–2013 data set (1) temporally over a decade and (2) spatially in the adjacent Celtic and Irish seas (CS and IS), two regions which exhibit hydrographical and biogeochemical characteristics similar to those of WEC waters. We validated these extrapolations with pCO2 data from the SOCAT and LDEO databases and obtained good agreement between modeled and observed data. On an annual scale, seasonally stratified systems acted as a sink of CO2 from the atmosphere of −0.6 ± 0.3, −0.9 ± 0.3 and −0.5 ± 0.3 mol C m−2 yr−1 in the northern Celtic Sea, southern Celtic sea and nWEC, respectively, whereas permanently well-mixed systems acted as source of CO2 to the atmosphere of 0.2 ± 0.2 and 0.3 ± 0.2 mol C m−2 yr−1 in the sWEC and IS, respectively. Air–sea CO2 fluxes showed important inter-annual variability resulting in significant differences in the intensity and/or direction of annual fluxes. We scaled the mean annual fluxes over these provinces for the last decade and obtained the first annual average uptake of −1.11 ± 0.32 Tg C yr−1 for this part of the northwestern European continental shelf. Our study showed that combining VOS data with satellite observations can be a powerful tool to estimate and extrapolate air–sea CO2 fluxes in sparsely sampled area.

Global Carbon Budget 2015

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr−1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015).

Globcurrent: Sentinel-3 synergy in action

The ESA Data User Element (DUE) funded GlobCurrent project (http://www.globcurrent.org) aims to: (i) advance the quantitative estimation of ocean surface currents from satellite sensor synergy; and (ii) demonstrate impact in user-led scientific, operational and commercial applications that, in turn, will improve and strengthen the uptake of satellite measurements. Today, a synergetic approach for quantitative analysis can build on high-resolution imaging radar and spectrometer data, infrared radiometer data and radar altimeter measurements. It will further integrate Sentinel-3 in combination with Sentinel-1 SAR data. From existing and past missions, it is often demonstrated that sharp gradients in the sea surface temperature (SST) field and the ocean surface chlorophyll-a distribution are spatially correlated with the sea surface roughness anomaly fields at small spatial scales, in the sub-mesocale (1-10 km) to the mesoscale (30-80 km). At the larger mesoscale range (>50 km), information derived from radar altimeters often depict the presence of coherent structures and eddies. The variability often appears largest in regions where the intense surface current regimes (>100 - 200 km) are found. These 2-dimensional structures manifested in the satellite observations represent evidence of the upper ocean (~100-200 m) dynamics. Whereas the quasi geostrophic assumption is valid for the upper ocean dynamics at the larger scale (>100 km), possible triggering mechanisms for the expressions at the mesoscale-to-submesoscale may include spiraling tracers of inertial motion and the interaction of the wind-driven Ekman layer with the quasi-geostrophic current field. This latter, in turn, produces bands of downwelling (convergence) and upwelling (divergence) near fronts. A regular utilization of the sensor synergy approach with the combination of Sentinel-3 and Sentinel-1 will provide a highly valuable data set for further research and development to better relate the 2-dimensional surface expressions and the upper ocean dynamics.

Addressing Bed Costs for the Elderly: A New Methodology for Modelling Patient Outcomes and Length of Stay

The proportion of elderly in the population has dramatically increased and will continue to do so for at least the next 50 years. Medical resources throughout the world are feeling the added strain of the increasing proportion of elderly in the population. The effective care of elderly patients in hospitals may be enhanced by accurately modelling the length of stay of the patients in hospital and the associated costs involved. This paper examines previously developed models for patient length of stay in hospital and describes the recently developed conditional phase-type distribution (C-Ph) to model patient duration of stay in relation to explanatory patient variables. The Clinics data set was used to demonstrate the C-Ph methodology. The resulting model highlighted a strong relationship between Barthel grade, patient outcome and length of stay showing various groups of patient behaviour. The patients who stay in hospital for a very long time are usually those that consume the largest amount of hospital resources. These have been identified as the patients whose resulting outcome is transfer. Overall, the majority of transfer patients spend a considerably longer period of time in hospital compared to patients who die or are discharged home. The C-Ph model has the potential for considering costs where different costs are attached to the various phases or subgroups of patients and the anticipated cost of care estimated in advance. It is hoped that such a method will lead to the successful identification of the most cost effective case-mix management of the hospital ward.

Linnaeus was right all along: Ulva and Enteromorpha are not distinct genera.

Ulva, one of the first Linnaean genera, was later circumscribed to consist of green seaweeds with distromatic blades, and Enteromorpha Link was established for tubular forms. Although several lines of evidence suggest that these generic constructs are artificial, Ulva and Enteromorpha have been maintained as separate genera. Our aims were to determine phylogenetic relationships among taxa currently attributed to Ulva, Enteromorpha, Umbraulva Bae et I.K. Lee and the monotypic genus Chloropelta C.E. Tanner, and to make any nomenclatural changes justified by our findings. Analyses of nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer DNA (ITS nrDNA) (29 ingroup taxa including the type species of Ulva and Enteromorpha), the chloroplast-encoded rbcL gene (for a subset of taxa) and a combined data set were carried out. All trees had a strongly supported clade consisting of all Ulva, Enteromorpha and Chloropelta species, but Ulva and Enteromorpha were not monophyletic. The recent removal of Umbraulva olivascens (P.J.L. Dangeard) Bae et I.K. Lee from Ulva is supported, although the relationship of the segregate genus Umbraulva to Ulvaria requires further investigation. These results, combined with earlier molecular and culture data, provide strong evidence that Ulva, Enteromorpha and Chloropelta are not distinct evolutionary entities and should not be recognized as separate genera. A comparison of traits for surveyed species revealed few synapomorphies. Because Ulva is the oldest name, Enteromorpha and Chloropelta are here reduced to synonymy with Ulva, and new combinations are made where necessary.

The uptake of silica during the spring bloom in the North East Atlantic Ocean

A full understanding of the biogeochemical cycling of silica in the North Atlantic is hampered by a lack of estimates of silica uptake by phytoplankton. We applied the ${}^{32}\text{Si}$ radiotracer incubation technique to determine silica uptake rates at 10 sites during the UK-(Natural Environment Research Council) Faroes-Iceland-Scotland hydrographic and environmental survey (FISHES) cruise in the Northeast Atlantic, May 2001. Column silica uptake rates ranged between 6 and 166 mmol Si $\text{m}^{-2}\ \text{d}^{-1}$; this data set was integrated with concurrent hydrographic, chemical, and primary productivity data to explain these changes in silica uptake in terms of the progress of the spring bloom. In order to interpret data covering a relatively large spatial and temporal scale, we used mean photic zone silica concentration as a proxy time-series measure of diatom bloom progression. Both absolute and specific silica uptake rates were highest at dissolved silica concentrations >2 mmol $\text{L}^{-1}$. Si and C uptake were vertically decoupled at those stations where surface silica was strongly depleted. Absolute primary productivity was not strongly correlated with dissolved silica concentrations, owing to either exhaustion of silica at diatom-dominated stations or to dominance of the community by other phytoplankton. Silica uptake as a function of increased substrate concentration was linear up to 25 $\mu \text{mol}\ \text{L}^{-1}$; we consider some possible reasons for the nonhyperbolic response.

Calibration of the Radiocarbon Time Scale for the Southern Hemisphere: AD 1850-950

We have conducted a series of radiocarbon measurements on decadal samples of dendrochronologically dated wood from both hemispheres, spanning 1000 years (McCormac et al. 1998; Hogg et al. this issue). Using the data presented in Hogg et al., we show that during the period AD 950-1850 the 14C offset between the hemispheres is not constant, but varies periodically (~130 yr periodicity) with amplitudes varying between 1 and 10‰ (i.e. 8-80 yr), with a consequent effect on the 14C calibration of material from the Southern Hemisphere. A large increase in the offset occurs between AD 1245 and 1355. In this paper, we present a Southern Hemisphere high-precision calibration data set (SHCal02) that comprises measurements from New Zealand, Chile, and South Africa. This data, and a new value of 41 ± 14 yr for correction of the IntCal98 data for the period outside the range given here, is proposed for use in calibrating Southern Hemisphere 14C dates.

ShCal04 Southern Hemisphere Calibration, 0–11.0 Cal Kyr BP

Recent measurements on dendrochronologically-dated wood from the Southern Hemisphere have shown that there are differences between the structural form of the radiocarbon calibration curves from each hemisphere. Thus, it is desirable, when possible, to use calibration data obtained from secure dendrochronologically-dated wood from the corresponding hemisphere. In this paper, we outline the recent work and point the reader to the internationally recommended data set that should be used for future calibration of Southern Hemisphere 14C dates.

Water quality impacts and palaeohydrogeology in the East Yorkshire Chalk Aquifer, UK

A large hydrochemical data-set for the East Yorkshire Chalk has been assessed. Controls on the distribution of water qualities within this aquifer reflect: water-rock interactions (affecting especially the carbonate system and associated geochemistry); effects of land-use change (especially where the aquifer is unconfined); saline intrusion and aquifer refreshening (including ion exchange effects); and aquifer overexploitation (in the semi-confined and confined zones of the aquifer). Both Sr and I prove useful indicators of groundwater ages, with I/Cl ratios characterising two sources of saline waters. The hydrochemical evidence clearly reveals the importance of both recent management decisions and palaeohydrogeology in determining the evolution and distribution of groundwater salinity within the artesian and confined zones of the aquifer. Waters currently encountered in the aquifer are identified as complex (and potentially dynamic) mixtures between modern recharge waters, modern seawater, and old seawaters which entered the aquifer many millennia ago.

CaII K interstellar observations towards early-type disc and halo stars

We present high-resolution (R = lambda/Deltalambda similar to 40 000) Ca II K interstellar observations (lambda(air) = 3933.66Angstrom) towards 88 mainly B-type stars, of which 74 are taken from the Edinburgh-Cape or Palomar-Green surveys, and 81 have > 25degrees. The majority of the data come from previously existing spectroscopy, although also included are 18 new observations of stars with echelle spectra taken with UVES on the Very Large Telescope UT2 (Kueyen). Some 49 of the sample stars have distance estimates above the Galactic plane (z) greater than or equal to 1 kpc, and are thus good probes of the halo interstellar medium. Of the 362 interstellar Ca K components that we detect, 75 (21 per cent) have absolute values of their LSR velocity values exceeding 40 km s(-1). In terms of the deviation velocity for the sightlines with distance estimates, 46/273 (17 per cent) of components have velocity values exceeding those predicted by standard Galactic rotation by more than 40 km s(-1). Combining this data set with previous observations, we find that the median value of the reduced equivalent width (REW) of stars with z greater than or equal to 1 kpc (EW x sin ) is similar to 115 mAngstrom (n = 80), similar to that observed in extragalactic sightlines by Bowen. Using data of all z distances, the REW at infinity is found to be similar to 130 mAngstrom, with the scaleheight (1) of the Ca II K column density distribution being;z 800 pc (n = 196) and reduced column density at infinity of log[N(Ca II K) cm(-2)] similar to 12.24. This implies that similar to30 per cent of Ca II K absorption occurs at distances exceeding similar to1 kpc. For nine sightlines, with distance exceeding 1 kpc and with a companion object within 5degrees, we find that all but two have values of Ca II reduced equivalent width the same to within similar to20 per cent, when the REW of the nearest object is extrapolated to the distance of the further of the pair, and assuming 1 = 800 pc. For 29 of our sightlines with z greater than or equal to 1 kpc and a H I detection from the Leiden-Dwingeloo survey (beamsize of 0.5degrees), we find log(N(Ca II K)IN(H I)) ranging from -7.4 to - 8.4. Values of the Ca II K abundance relative to neutral hydrogen (log[N(Ca II K) cm(-2)] - log[N(H I) cm(-2)]) are found to be more than similar to0.5 dex higher in stars with distances exceeding approximate to100 pc, when compared with the (log[N(Ca II K) cm(-2)] -log[N(H-tot) cm(-2)]) values found in nearby sightlines such as those in Wakker & Mathis (2000). Finally, stellar Ca II K equivalent widths of the sample are determined for 26 objects.

High-resolution spectroscopic observations of B-type stars from the Edinburgh-Cape Survey - III. Completion of a magnitude range limited survey

High spectral resolution (R similar to 40 000) and signal-to- noise ratio observations of five high Galactic latitude early- type stars taken from the Edinburgh-Cape (EC) Faint Blue Object Survey are presented. These were required to complete a magnitude range-limited survey of young B-type objects with 11 <V <15. Of the five stars, four were rejected on the grounds that they are either subluminous (subdwarf or horizontal branch), were part of a binary system or possessed colours later than the (U - B) = -0.5 cut-off employed. The remaining star in the data set, EC 19596-5356, is found to exhibit normal young B-type stellar properties. A kinematic analysis reveals that an origin in the Galactic disc appears likely for all the stars in the sample. Some statistics are drawn about the number density of young stars in the Galactic halo.

Emission lines of Na-like ions in spectra obtained with the Solar EUV Research Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS)

Theoretical emission-line ratios involving transitions in the 236-412 Angstrom wavelength range are presented for the Na-like ions Ar viii, Cr xiv, Mn xv, Fe xvi, Co xvii, Ni xviii and Zn xx. A comparison of these with an extensive data set of the solar active region, quiet-Sun, subflare and off-limb observations, obtained during rocket flights by the Solar EUV Research Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS), reveals generally very good agreement between theory and experiment. This indicates that most of the Na-like ion lines are reliably detected in the SERTS observations, and hence may be employed with confidence in solar spectral analyses. However, the features in the SERTS spectra at 236.34 and 300.25 Angstrom, originally identified as the Ni xviii 3p (2) P-3/2 -3d (2) D- 3/2 and Cr xiv 3p (2) P-3/2 -3d (2) D-5/2 transitions, respectively, are found to be due to emission lines of Ar xiii (236.34 Angstrom) and possibly S v or Ni vi (300.25 Angstrom). The Co xvii 3s (2) S-3p (2) P-3/2 line at 312.55 Angstrom is always badly blended with an Fe xv feature at the same wavelength, but Mn xv 3s (2) S-3p (2) P-1/2 at 384.75 Angstrom may not always be as affected by second-order emission from Fe xii 192.37 Angstrom as previously thought. On the other hand, we find that the Zn xx 3s (2) S-3p (2) P-3/2 transition can sometimes make a significant contribution to the Zn xx/Fe xiii 256.43- Angstrom blend, and hence care must be taken when using this feature as an Fe xiii electron density diagnostic. A line in the SERTS-89 active region spectrum at 265.00 Angstrom has been re-assessed, and we confirm its identification as the Fe xvi 3p (2) P-3/2 -3d (2) D-3/2 transition.

Epipolar geometry estimation based on evolutionary agents

This paper presents a novel approach based on the use of evolutionary agents for epipolar geometry estimation. In contrast to conventional nonlinear optimization methods, the proposed technique employs each agent to denote a minimal subset to compute the fundamental matrix, and considers the data set of correspondences as a 1D cellular environment, in which the agents inhabit and evolve. The agents execute some evolutionary behavior, and evolve autonomously in a vast solution space to reach the optimal (or near optima) result. Then three different techniques are proposed in order to improve the searching ability and computational efficiency of the original agents. Subset template enables agents to collaborate more efficiently with each other, and inherit accurate information from the whole agent set. Competitive evolutionary agent (CEA) and finite multiple evolutionary agent (FMEA) apply a better evolutionary strategy or decision rule, and focus on different aspects of the evolutionary process. Experimental results with both synthetic data and real images show that the proposed agent-based approaches perform better than other typical methods in terms of accuracy and speed, and are more robust to noise and outliers.

Measles virus and classical Hodgkin lymphoma: no evidence for a direct association.

A proportion of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) cases are causally associated with the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) but the aetiology of the remaining cases remains obscure. Over the last 3 decades several studies have found an association between HL and measles virus (MV) including a recent cohort study describing the detection of MV antigens in Hodgkin and Reed-Sternberg cells, the tumour cells in HL. In the present study we looked at the relationship between history of MV infection and risk of developing HL in a population-based, case/control study of HL. In addition we used immunohistochemistry and RT-PCR to look for direct evidence of MV in HL biopsies. There was no significant difference in the proportion of cases reporting previous measles compared to controls in the entire data set or when young adults were considered separately. Using a robust immunohistochemical assay for MV infection, we failed to find evidence of MV in biopsies from 97 cases of HL and RT-PCR studies similarly gave negative results. This study therefore provides no evidence that MV is directly involved in the development of HL. However, when age at first reported MV infection was investigated, significant differences emerged with children infected before school-age having higher risk, especially of EBV-ve HL, when compared with children infected at older ages; the interpretation of these latter results is unclear.

IntCal04 terrestrial radiocarbon age calibration, 0-26 cal kyr BP

A new calibration curve for the conversion of radiocarbon ages to calibrated (cal) ages has been constructed and internationally ratified to replace IntCal98, which extended from 0-24 cal kyr BP (Before Present, 0 cal BP = AD 1950). The new calibration data set for terrestrial samples extends from 0-26 cal kyr BP, but with much higher resolution beyond 11.4 cal kyr BP than IntCal98. Dendrochronologically-dated tree-ring samples cover the period from 0-12.4 cal kyr BP. Beyond the end of the tree rings, data from marine records (corals and foraminifera) are converted to the atmospheric equivalent with a site-specific marine reservoir correction to provide terrestrial calibration from 12.4-26.0 cal kyr BP. A substantial enhancement relative to IntCal98 is the introduction of a coherent statistical approach based on a random walk model, which takes into account the uncertainty in both the calendar age and the (super 14) C age to calculate the underlying calibration curve (Buck and Blackwell, this issue). The tree-ring data sets, sources of uncertainty, and regional offsets are discussed here. The marine data sets and calibration curve for marine samples from the surface mixed layer (Marine04) are discussed in brief, but details are presented in Hughen et al. (this issue a). We do not make a recommendation for calibration beyond 26 cal kyr BP at this time; however, potential calibration data sets are compared in another paper (van der Plicht et al., this issue).