Does managerial turnover affect football club share prices?

This paper analyses the 53 managerial sackings and resignations from 16 stock exchange listed English football clubs during the nine seasons between 2000/01 and 2008/09. The results demonstrate that, on average, a managerial sacking results in a post-announcement day market-adjusted share price rise of 0.3%, whilst a resignation leads to a drop in share price of 1% that continues for a trading month thereafter, cumulating in a negative abnormal return of over 8% from a trading day before the event. These findings are intuitive, and suggest that sacking a poorly performing manager may be welcomed by the markets as a possible route to better future match performance, while losing a capable manager through resignation, who typically progresses to a superior job, will result in a drop in a club’s share price. The paper also reveals that while the impact of managerial departures on stock price volatilities is less clear-cut, speculation in the newspapers is rife in the build-up to such an event.

Response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to a reversal of greenhouse gas increases

The reversibility of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is investigated in multi-model experiments using global climate models (GCMs) where CO2 concentrations are increased by 1 or 2 % per annum to 2× or 4× preindustrial conditions. After a period of stabilisation the CO2 is decreased back to preindustrial conditions. In most experiments when the CO2 decreases, the AMOC recovers before becoming anomalously strong. This "overshoot" is up to an extra 18.2Sv or 104 % of its preindustrial strength, and the period with an anomalously strong AMOC can last for several hundred years. The magnitude of this overshoot is shown to be related to the build up of salinity in the subtropical Atlantic during the previous period of high CO2 levels. The magnitude of this build up is partly related to anthropogenic changes in the hydrological cycle. The mechanisms linking the subtropical salinity increase to the subsequent overshoot are analysed, supporting the relationship found. This understanding is used to explain differences seen in some models and scenarios. In one experiment there is no overshoot because there is little salinity build up, partly as a result of model differences in the hydrological cycle response to increased CO2 levels and partly because of a less aggressive scenario. Another experiment has a delayed overshoot, possibly as a result of a very weak AMOC in that GCM when CO2 is high. This study identifies aspects of overshoot behaviour that are robust across a multi-model and multi-scenario ensemble, and those that differ between experiments. These results could inform an assessment of the real-world AMOC response to decreasing CO2.

The impracticality of a universal drought definition

This paper demonstrates the impracticality of a comprehensive mathematical definition of the term `drought' which formalises the general qualitative definition that drought is `a deficit of water relative to normal conditions'. Starting from the local water balance, it is shown that a universal description of drought requires reference to water supply, demand and management. The influence of human intervention through water management is shown to be intrinsic to the definition of drought in the universal sense and can only be eliminated in the case of purely meteorological drought. The state of `drought' is shown to be predicated on the existence of climatological norms for a multitude of process specific terms. In general these norms are either difficult to obtain or even non-existent in the non-stationary context of climate change. Such climatological considerations, in conjunction with the difficulty of quantifying human influence, lead to the conclusion that we cannot reasonably expect the existence of any workable generalised objective definition of drought.

Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 degrees C above present (approximately 2.7 degrees C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (< 500 m(3) per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 degrees C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 degrees C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.

Microbial community dynamics in the forefield of glaciers

Retreating ice fronts (as a result of a warming climate) expose large expanses of deglaciated forefield, which become colonized by microbes and plants. There has been increasing interest in characterizing the biogeochemical development of these ecosystems using a chronosequence approach. Prior to the establishment of plants, microbes use autochthonously produced and allochthonously delivered nutrients for growth. The microbial community composition is largely made up of heterotrophic microbes (both bacteria and fungi), autotrophic microbes and nitrogen-fixing diazotrophs. Microbial activity is thought to be responsible for the initial build-up of labile nutrient pools, facilitating the growth of higher order plant life in developed soils. However, it is unclear to what extent these ecosystems rely on external sources of nutrients such as ancient carbon pools and periodic nitrogen deposition. Furthermore, the seasonal variation of chronosequence dynamics and the effect of winter are largely unexplored. Modelling this ecosystem will provide a quantitative evaluation of the key processes and could guide the focus of future research. Year-round datasets combined with novel metagenomic techniques will help answer some of the pressing questions in this relatively new but rapidly expanding field, which is of growing interest in the context of future large-scale ice retreat.

Childhood trauma: methods for the identification of physeal fractures in non-adult skeletal remains

Objectives Today, fractures at the growth plate (or physis) are common injuries in children, but provide challenges of identification in skeletonized remains. Clinical studies provide detailed information on the mechanisms, locations, age of occurrence, and complications associated with physeal fractures, enabling the development of new criteria for identifying this injury in non-adults. To test these criteria, skeletal remains from five rural and urban medieval cemeteries were examined. Methods The sample consisted of 961 skeletons (0-17 years) with open epiphyses. Macroscopic observation looked for any irregularities of the metaphysis or epiphysis which was consistent with the clinical appearance of physeal fractures or resulting complications. Radiographic examination was applied to identify fracture lines or early growth arrest. Results This study revealed 12 cases of physeal trauma (1.2%). Physeal fractures occurred predominantly at the distal end (75%), and while they were identified in all age categories, they were most frequent in those aged 12-17 years (0.2% TPR). The humerus was the most commonly affected location (3/12 or 25%). Conclusions This study highlights the potential for recognizing physeal fractures in children of all ages, enhancing our understanding of non-adult trauma, and enabling us to assign a more precise age of the injury to build up a picture of their activities in the past.

SHIMMER (1.0): a novel mathematical model for microbial and biogeochemical dynamics in glacier forefield ecosystems

SHIMMER (Soil biogeocHemIcal Model for Microbial Ecosystem Response) is a new numerical modelling framework designed to simulate microbial dynamics and biogeochemical cycling during initial ecosystem development in glacier forefield soils. However, it is also transferable to other extreme ecosystem types (such as desert soils or the surface of glaciers). The rationale for model development arises from decades of empirical observations in glacier forefields, and enables a quantitative and process focussed approach. Here, we provide a detailed description of SHIMMER, test its performance in two case study forefields: the Damma Glacier (Switzerland) and the Athabasca Glacier (Canada) and analyse sensitivity to identify the most sensitive and unconstrained model parameters. Results show that the accumulation of microbial biomass is highly dependent on variation in microbial growth and death rate constants, Q10 values, the active fraction of microbial biomass and the reactivity of organic matter. The model correctly predicts the rapid accumulation of microbial biomass observed during the initial stages of succession in the forefields of both the case study systems. Primary production is responsible for the initial build-up of labile substrate that subsequently supports heterotrophic growth. However, allochthonous contributions of organic matter, and nitrogen fixation, are important in sustaining this productivity. The development and application of SHIMMER also highlights aspects of these systems that require further empirical research: quantifying nutrient budgets and biogeochemical rates, exploring seasonality and microbial growth and cell death. This will lead to increased understanding of how glacier forefields contribute to global biogeochemical cycling and climate under future ice retreat.

Work and Excessive Sleepiness among Brazilian Evening High School Students Effects on Days Off

Previous studies have revealed that students who work and study build up sleep deficits during the workweek, which can trigger a sleep rebound during days off. The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of working/non-working on sleepiness during days off among high school students. The study population, aged 14-21 years, attended evening classes in Sao Paulo, Brazil. For the study, the students completed questionnaires on living conditions, health, and work; wore actigraphs; and completed the Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS). To predict sleepiness, a logistic regression analysis was performed. Excessive sleepiness was observed on the first day off among working students. Results suggest that working is a significant predictor for sleepiness and that two shifts of daily systematic activities, study and work, might lead to excessive daytime sleepiness on the first day off. Further, this observed excessive sleepiness may reflect the sleep debt accumulated during the workweek.

Fluctuating abundance of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in a calving ground off coastal Brazil

The humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) population that uses Abrolhos Bank, off the east coast of Brazil as a breeding ground is increasing. To describe temporal changes in the relative abundance of humpback whales around Abrolhos, seven years (1998-2004) of whale count data were collected during July through to November. During one-hour-scans, observers determined group size within 9.3 km (5 n.m.) of a land-based observing station. A total Of 930 scans, comprising 7996 sightings of adults and 2044 calves were analysed using generalized linear models that included variables for time of day, day of the season, years and two-way interactions as possible predictors. The pattern observed was the gradual build-up and decline in whale counts within seasons. Patterns and peaks of adult and calf counts varied among years. Although fluctuation was observed, there was generally an increasing trend in adult counts among years. Calf counts increased only in 2004. These fluctuations may have been caused by some environmental conditions in humpback whales` summering grounds and also by changes in spatial-temporal concentrations in Abrolhos Bank. The general pattern observed within the study area mirrored what was observed in the whole Abrolhos Bank. Knowledge of the consistency with which humpback whales use this important nursing area should prove beneficial for designing future monitoring programmes especially related to whale watching activities around Abrolhos Archipelago.

Using phospholipid Langmuir and Langmuir-Blodgett films as matrix for urease immobilization

The immobilization of enzymes in organized two-dimensional matrices is a key requirement for many biotechnological applications. In this paper, we used the Langmuir-Blodgett (LB) technique to obtain controlled architectures of urease immobilized in solid supports, whose physicochemical properties were investigated in detail. Urease molecules were adsorbed at the air-water interface and incorporated into Langmuir monolayers of the phospholipid dipalmitoyl phosphatidyl glycerol (DPPG). Incorporation of urease made DPPG monolayers more flexible and caused the reduction of the equilibrium and dynamic elasticity of the film. Urease and DPPG-urease mixed monolayers could be transferred onto solid substrates, forming LB films. A close packing arrangement of urease was obtained, especially in the mixed LB films, which was inferred with nanogravimetry and electrochemistry measurements. From the blocking effect of the LB films deposited onto indium tin oxide (ITO) substrates, the electrochemical properties of the LB films pointed to a charge transport controlled by the lipid architecture. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Coumarins and phenolic fingerprints of oak and Brazilian woods extracted by sugarcane spirit

A total of 25 sugarcane spirit extracts of six different Brazilian woods and oak, commonly used by cooperage industries for aging cachaca, were analyzed for the presence of 14 phenolic compounds (ellagic acid, gallic acid, vanillin, syringaldehyde, synapaldehyde, coniferaldehyde, vanillic acid, syringic acid, quercetin, trans-resveratrol, catechin, epicatechin, eugenol, and myricetin) and two coumarins (scopoletin and coumarin) by HPLC-DAD-fluorescence and HPLC-ESI-MS(n). Furthermore, an HPLC-DAD chromatographic fingerprint was build-up using chemometric analysis based on the chromatographic elution profiles of the extracts monitored at 280 nm. Major components identified and quantified in Brazilian wood extracts were coumarin, ellagic acid, and catechin, whereas oak extracts shown a major contribution of catechin, vanillic acid, and syringaldehyde. The main difference observed among oak and Brazilian woods remains in the concentration of coumarin, catechin, syringaldehyde, and coniferaldehyde. The chemometric analysis of the quantitative profile of the 14 phenolic compounds and two coumarins in the wood extracts provides a differentiation between the Brazilian wood and oak extracts. The chromatographic fingerprint treated by multivariate analysis revealed significant differences among Brazilian woods themselves and oak, clearly defining six groups of wood extracts: (i) oak extracts, (ii) jatoba extracts, (iii) cabreuva-parda extracts, (iv) amendoim extracts, (v) canela-sassafras extracts and (vi) pequi extracts.

Elitidrottsproblem? : En kvalitativ studie om elitidrottares karriäravslutning

This paper used a qualitative technique from a social scientific perspective, a model based on Hewitt and his theory of the self-concept. The purpose of this study was to investigate why some elite athletes experience troublesome periods after their career ending. Interviews were performed with five elite athletes with varying experiences after career ending. The length of the elite athlete careers vary between 7 to 17 years. Two groups were made based upon experiences after career ending. Group 1 had experienced problems, for example suicide tendency, and group 2 had not. The result shows that a troublesome period can come up independently of career ending. The self-concept was investigated during the career and further different kind of variables which could affect the self as training and competition, social relations both before and after termination from sport. Result indicates that an individual in group 2 who has a high complexity in the self-concept based upon significant others outside the elite sport during the career copes with the new situation after career ending much better than group 1 who have not. To build up the self based only upon significant others in the elite sport seems to give expression in a strengthen self. Intensity in training and competition did not have a connection with a troublesome period after retirement from sport but it could prevent establishing contact with others outside the elite sport and reduce a high complexity in the self-concept. The result further shows that elite athletes who practise an individual sport trains in to a greater extent than elite athletes in a seasonal sport. Result also shows that practising a sport with one day off a week, contributes to better opportunities for developing a higher complexity in the self-concept. Suspicions has also rouse that practising an elite sport on the highest level can lead to extensive focusing that further leads to social isolation from individuals outside elite sport. To build up the self upon significant others outside elite sport during the career and keep in touch with significant others from elite sport after the career seems to be the key to avoid problems after the career ending. Suggestions about further investigations are made to see if medial exposure and status can affect the self.

Varumärkning för småföretag

In this degree project a study of the importance of a graphic identity to companies has been done. A questionnaire among small companies in Dalarna has beenmade. From this, three sets of graphic profile-program have been formed andthese are suitable for new companies. Finally a practical application has been made on Greenfield in Mora, a graphic profile has been designed.To cause an identity is to prove that someone or something exists by individualizingand distinguish. Every individual or company has its qualities or charasteristics.The way to a desirable identity is going by a corporate identity-program that containsthe companies strategies, people, products, buildings, trademarks, graphic design. To create an identity a well considered strategy is needed, where all members of the company are involved. This will lead to a positive image and means for an efficient market communication. The identity of the company is that the company wish what the company/product will stand for, but the image is what the market think about the company/product. The surrounding worldwill be convinced that the company is a reliable producer or deliverer. The companyvill also be regarded as useful and responsable, profitable as an object or partner and a good place of work.Today, trademarking is the most important carrier of identity for a company. A trademark, like a word, a picture or a slogan, will distinguish a product from theothers. What is needed to build up a strong trademark? How can a trade markbe developed to an advantage?To get a lot of people in the same direction clear guidlines are needed. Usually you focused on graphic design, especially the symbols and marks of the companies.The results are presented on a graphic profile, documented in a graphic manual.

Using Multi-Objective Optimization To Maximize Multiple Benefits For Sustainable Drainage Design

For many years, drainage design was mainly about providing sufficient network capacity. This traditional approach had been successful with the aid of computer software and technical guidance. However, the drainage design criteria had been evolving due to rapid population growth, urbanisation, climate change and increasing sustainability awareness. Sustainable drainage systems that bring benefits in addition to water management have been recommended as better alternatives to conventional pipes and storages. Although the concepts and good practice guidance had already been communicated to decision makers and public for years, network capacity still remains a key design focus in many circumstances while the additional benefits are generally considered secondary only. Yet, the picture is changing. The industry begins to realise that delivering multiple benefits should be given the top priority while the drainage service can be considered a secondary benefit instead. The shift in focus means the industry has to adapt to new design challenges. New guidance and computer software are needed to assist decision makers. For this purpose, we developed a new decision support system. The system consists of two main components – a multi-criteria evaluation framework for drainage systems and a multi-objective optimisation tool. Users can systematically quantify the performance, life-cycle costs and benefits of different drainage systems using the evaluation framework. The optimisation tool can assist users to determine combinations of design parameters such as the sizes, order and type of drainage components that maximise multiple benefits. In this paper, we will focus on the optimisation component of the decision support framework. The optimisation problem formation, parameters and general configuration will be discussed. We will also look at the sensitivity of individual variables and the benchmark results obtained using common multi-objective optimisation algorithms. The work described here is the output of an EngD project funded by EPSRC and XP Solutions.

Stochastic Assessment Of Environmental Flows In Semiarid Environments

The regimen of environmental flows (EF) must be included as terms of environmental demand in the management of water resources. Even though there are numerous methods for the computation of EF, the criteria applied at different steps in the calculation process are quite subjective whereas the results are fixed values that must be meet by water planners. This study presents a friendly-user tool for the assessment of the probability of compliance of a certain EF scenario with the natural regimen in a semiarid area in southern Spain. 250 replications of a 25-yr period of different hydrological variables (rainfall, minimum and maximum flows, ...) were obtained at the study site from the combination of Monte Carlo technique and local hydrological relationships. Several assumptions are made such as the independence of annual rainfall from year to year and the variability of occurrence of the meteorological agents, mainly precipitation as the main source of uncertainty. Inputs to the tool are easily selected from a first menu and comprise measured rainfall data, EF values and the hydrological relationships for at least a 20-yr period. The outputs are the probabilities of compliance of the different components of the EF for the study period. From this, local optimization can be applied to establish EF components with a certain level of compliance in the study period. Different options for graphic output and analysis of results are included in terms of graphs and tables in several formats. This methodology turned out to be a useful tool for the implementation of an uncertainty analysis within the scope of environmental flows in water management and allowed the simulation of the impacts of several water resource development scenarios in the study site.