On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century and beyond

The main objective of this paper is to propose a novel setup that allows estimating separately the welfare costs of the uncertainty stemming from business-cycle uctuations and from economic-growth variation, when the two types of shocks associated with them (respectively,transitory and permanent shocks) hit consumption simultaneously. Separating these welfare costs requires dealing with degenerate bivariate distributions. Levis Continuity Theorem and the Disintegration Theorem allow us to adequately de ne the one-dimensional limiting marginal distributions. Under Normality, we show that the parameters of the original marginal distributions are not afected, providing the means for calculating separately the welfare costs of business-cycle uctuations and of economic-growth variation. Our empirical results show that, if we consider only transitory shocks, the welfare cost of business cycles is much smaller than previously thought. Indeed, we found it to be negative - -0:03% of per-capita consumption! On the other hand, we found that the welfare cost of economic-growth variation is relatively large. Our estimate for reasonable preference-parameter values shows that it is 0:71% of consumption US$ 208:98 per person, per year.

The life-cycle effects of social security in a model with housing and endogenous benefits

This article develops a life-cycle general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents who make choices of nondurables consumption, investment in homeowned housing and labour supply. Agents retire from an specific age and receive Social Security benefits which are dependant on average past earnings. The model is calibrated, numerically solved and is able to match stylized U.S. aggregate statistics and to generate average life-cycle profiles of its decision variables consistent with data and literature. We also conduct an exercise of complete elimination of the Social Security system and compare its results with the benchmark economy. The results enable us to emphasize the importance of endogenous labour supply and benefits for agents' consumption-smoothing behaviour.

A monthly indicator of Brazilian GDP. The Brazilian business cycle and growth cycle

This paper constructs an indicator of Brazilian GDP at the monthly ftequency. The peculiar instability and abrupt changes of regimes in the dynamic behavior of the Brazilian business cycle were explicitly modeled within nonlinear ftameworks. In particular, a Markov switching dynarnic factor model was used to combine several macroeconomic variables that display simultaneous comovements with aggregate economic activity. The model generates as output a monthly indicator of the Brazilian GDP and real time probabilities of the current phase of the Brazilian business cycle. The monthly indicator shows a remarkable historical conformity with cyclical movements of GDP. In addition, the estimated filtered probabilities predict ali recessions in sample and out-of-sample. The ability of the indicator in linear forecasting growth rates of GDP is also examined. The estimated indicator displays a better in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance in forecasting growth rates of real GDP, compared to a linear autoregressive model for GDP. These results suggest that the estimated monthly indicator can be used to forecast GDP and to monitor the state of the Brazilian economy in real time.

Unit roots and the welfare gains of cycle smoothing

li consumption is log-Normal and is decomposed into a linear deterministic trend and a stationary cycle, a surprising result in business-cycle research is that the welfare gains of eliminating uncertainty are relatively small. A possible problem with such calculations is the dichotomy between the trend and the cyclical components of consumption. In this paper, we abandon this dichotomy in two ways. First, we decompose consumption into a deterministic trend, a stochastic trend, and a stationary cyclical component, calculating the welfare gains of cycle smoothing. Calculations are carried forward only after a careful discussion of the limitations of macroeconomic policy. Second, still under the stochastic-trend model, we incorporate a variable slope for consumption depending negatively on the overall volatility in the economy. Results are obtained for a variety of preference parameterizations, parameter values, and different macroeconomic-policy goals. They show that, once the dichotomy in the decomposition in consumption is abandoned, the welfare gains of cycle smoothing may be substantial, especially due to the volatility effect.

Monopolies life cycle, bureaucratization, and Schumpeterian growth

This paper analyzes the links between the internaI organization of firms and macroeconomic growth. We present a Schumpeterian growth model in which firms face dynamic agency costs. These agency costs are due to the formation of vertical collusions within the organization. To respond to the opportunity of internaI collusion, firms go through a whole life cycle, getting more bureaucratized and Iess efficient over time. vVeak creative destruction in the economy facilitates informal collusion inside firms and exacerbates bureaucratization. As bureaucratization affects the firms' profitability and the return to innovation, stationary equilibrium growth depends in turn on the efficiency of collusive side-contracts within firms.

Life Cycle Models, Heterogeneity of Initial Assets,and Wealth Inequality

Life cycle general equilibrium models with heterogeneous agents have a very hard time reproducing the American wealth distribution. A common assumption made in this literature is that all young adults enter the economy with no initial assets. In this article, we relax this assumption – not supported by the data - and evaluate the ability of an otherwise standard life cycle model to account for the U.S. wealth inequality. The new feature of the model is that agents enter the economy with assets drawn from an initial distribution of assets, which is estimated using a non-parametric method applied to data from the Survey of Consumer Finances. We found that heterogeneity with respect to initial wealth is key for this class of models to replicate the data. According to our results, American inequality can be explained almost entirely by the fact that some individuals are lucky enough to be born into wealth, while others are born with few or no assets.

La dimension personelle dans la formation des enseignants de l'enseignement de base du 1er cycle à Madère

Orientador Louis Marmoz

Changes in peak expiratory flow and respiratory strength during the menstrual cycle

This study evaluated the spirometry and respiratory static pressures in 17 young women, twice a week for three successive ovulatory menstrual cycles to determine if such variables changed across the menstrual, follicular, periovulatory, early-tomid luteal and late luteal phases. The factors phases of menstrual cycle and individual cycles had no significant effect on the spirometry variables except for peak expiratory flow (PEF) and respiratory static pressures. Significant weak positive correlations were found between the progesterone:estradiol ratio and PEF and between estrogen and tidal volume (r = 0.37), inspiratory time (r = 0.22), expiratory time (r = 0.19), maximal inspiratory pressure (r = 0.25) and maximal expiratory pressure (r = 0.20) and for progesterone and maximal inspiratory pressure (r = 0.32) during the early-to-mid luteal phase. Although most parameters of the spirometry results did not change during the menstrual cycle, the correlations observed between sexual hormones and respiratory control variables suggest a positive influence of sexual female hormones controlling the thoracic pump muscles in the luteal phase

Characteristics of the biological cycle of lutzomyia evandroi Costa Lima & Antunes, 1936 (diptera: psychodidae) under experimental conditions

XIMENES, Maria de Fátima Freire de Melo; MACIEL, Janaína Cunha; JERONIMO, Selma Maria Bezerra. Characteristics of the Biological Cycle of Lutzomyia evandroi Costa Lima & Antunes, 1936 (diptera: psychodidae) under experimental conditions. Memorias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, v.96, n.6, p.883-886, ago. 2001. Disponivel em: Acesso em: 4 out. 2010.

Reproductive cycle of the swimming crab Portunus spinimanus Latreille (Crustacea, Decapoda, Brachyura) from Ubatuba, São Paulo, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Life cycle and behaviour of the predaceous mite Cunaxatricha tarsospinosa (Acari: Prostigmata: Cunaxidae)

Life cycle and behaviour of Cunaxatricha tarsospinosa Castro & Den Heyer from rubber trees in Brazil were studied, with Tenuipalpus heveae Baker offered as prey. The study was conducted at 25.4 +/- A 0.2A degrees C, 83 +/- A 5% RH and 12:12 h L:D photophase. The egg stage was the longest immature stage, lasting 17.1 +/- A 1.3 days (mean +/- A SE); total juvenile development was completed in 33.2 +/- A 2.8 days. Lifetime fecundity was 12.0 +/- A 2.2 eggs. Intrinsic rate of population increase was low, suggesting that T. heveae may not be a good prey for the predator. All specimens of C. tarsospinosa collected in the field for this study were females, no males were found. Concurrently, only females were obtained in the laboratory. This seems to be the first report of thelytokous parthenogenesis for cunaxids. Similar to earlier reports for some Cunaxinae and Coleoscirinae, prey were captured when predators were actively searching for them.

Effects of environmental conditions, human activity, reproduction, antler cycle and grouping on fecal glucocorticoids of free-ranging Pampas deer stags (Ozotoceros bezoarticus bezoarticus)

In this study, a commercial enzyme immunoassay (EIA) was validated in detecting glucocorticoids in Pampas deer feces, in order to investigate the influence of several factors on the adrenocortical function. Fecal samples, behavioral data and information concerning male grouping and antlers status were collected at a monthly basis during a 1 year period from free-ranging stags living at Emas National Park, Brazil (18 degrees S/52 degrees W). The results revealed that concentrations of fecal glucocorticoids in winter were significantly higher than those corresponding to spring and summer. In addition, dry season data presented higher levels than during the wet season. Significant difference was found between fecal levels of breeding stags in summer and nonbreeding stags, whereas no difference was observed between breeding stags in winter and nonbreeding stags. on the other hand, males from areas with frequent human disturbance exhibited higher glucocorticoid concentrations and flight distances than individuals from areas of lower human activity. Males with antlers in velvet had elevated levels compared with animals in hard antler or antler casting. Also, we found that glucocorticoid levels were higher in groups with three or more males than in groups with only one male. The flight distances showed positive correlation with fecal glucocorticoid. These data indicate that fecal glucocorticoid provides a useful approach in the evaluation of physiological effects of environment, inter-individuals relationship and human-induced stressors on free-ranging Pampas deer stags. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.