Communicative and Anticipatory Decision-making Supported by Bayesian Networks

The purpose of this research is to draw up a clear construction of an anticipatory communicative decision-making process and a successful implementation of a Bayesian application that can be used as an anticipatory communicative decision-making support system. This study is a decision-oriented and constructive research project, and it includes examples of simulated situations. As a basis for further methodological discussion about different approaches to management research, in this research, a decision-oriented approach is used, which is based on mathematics and logic, and it is intended to develop problem solving methods. The approach is theoretical and characteristic of normative management science research. Also, the approach of this study is constructive. An essential part of the constructive approach is to tie the problem to its solution with theoretical knowledge. Firstly, the basic definitions and behaviours of an anticipatory management and managerial communication are provided. These descriptions include discussions of the research environment and formed management processes. These issues define and explain the background to further research. Secondly, it is processed to managerial communication and anticipatory decision-making based on preparation, problem solution, and solution search, which are also related to risk management analysis. After that, a solution to the decision-making support application is formed, using four different Bayesian methods, as follows: the Bayesian network, the influence diagram, the qualitative probabilistic network, and the time critical dynamic network. The purpose of the discussion is not to discuss different theories but to explain the theories which are being implemented. Finally, an application of Bayesian networks to the research problem is presented. The usefulness of the prepared model in examining a problem and the represented results of research is shown. The theoretical contribution includes definitions and a model of anticipatory decision-making. The main theoretical contribution of this study has been to develop a process for anticipatory decision-making that includes management with communication, problem-solving, and the improvement of knowledge. The practical contribution includes a Bayesian Decision Support Model, which is based on Bayesian influenced diagrams. The main contributions of this research are two developed processes, one for anticipatory decision-making, and the other to produce a model of a Bayesian network for anticipatory decision-making. In summary, this research contributes to decision-making support by being one of the few publicly available academic descriptions of the anticipatory decision support system, by representing a Bayesian model that is grounded on firm theoretical discussion, by publishing algorithms suitable for decision-making support, and by defining the idea of anticipatory decision-making for a parallel version. Finally, according to the results of research, an analysis of anticipatory management for planned decision-making is presented, which is based on observation of environment, analysis of weak signals, and alternatives to creative problem solving and communication.

Tribology of steel/steel interaction in oil-in-water mulsion; a rationale for lubricity

Oil droplets are dispersed in water by an anionic urfactant to form an emulsion. The lubricity of this emulsion in steel/steel interaction is explored in a ball on flat nanotribometer. The droplet size and charge are measured using dynamic light scattering, while the substrate charge density is estimated using the pH titration method. These data are combined to calculate the DLVO forces for the droplets generated for a range of surfactant concentration and two oil to water volume ratios. The droplets have a clear bi-modal size distribution. The study shows that the smaller droplets which experience weak repulsion are situated (at the highest DLVO barrier) much closer to the substrate than thebigger droplets, which experience the same DLVO force, are. We suggest that the smaller droplets thus play a more important role in lubricity than what the bigger droplets do. The largest volume of such small droplets occurs in the 0.5 mM-1 mM range of surfactant concentration and 1% oil to water volume ratio, where the coefficient of friction is also observed to be the least. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Kriminaalipolitiikan paradoksi : Tutkimuksia huumausainerikollisuudesta ja sen kontrollista Suomessa

This doctoral thesis explores the development of drug markets and drug related crime in Finland since the mid 1990s, as well as public control measures aimed at solving problems related to drug crime. The research further examines the criminal career of persons having committed drug crime, as well as their socio-economic background. The period since the mid 1990s is, on the one hand, characterized by increasing use of drugs and increasingly severe drug problems. On the other hand, this period is also characterized by intensified drug control. Also criminality associated with drugs has increased and become more severe. During this period the prevention of drug problems became a focal issue for authorities, and resources were increased for activities geared towards fighting drugs. Along with this development, Finnish drug policy has been balancing between therapeutic activities and control. A focal point in this thesis is the question how society addresses drug problems, as well as how this differs from efforts to solve other problems. Why are criminal means so readily used when dealing with drug problems; why have the police received an extended mandate to use coercive force; and why has the field for imposing administrative sanctions been extended? How has the extension of drug control affected general thinking in criminal policy? The subject matter in this thesis is approached in a criminological and criminal policy perspective. The thesis is made up of four research articles and a Summary Article. In the Summary Article the studies were placed into the Finnish research context of drug criminality and drug control as well as criminal policy. Furthermore, the author has assessed his own research location as a drug control researcher. Applying the notion of risk, an analysis was made of threats posed by drugs to society. Theoretical perspectives were also brought to the fore on how society may regulate drug problems and threats associated with them. Based on research literature and administrative documents, an analysis was made of the relation between drug related social and health policy and criminal justice control. An account was also made of the development of drug control in Finland since the mid 1990s. There has been a strong increase in control by the criminal justice system since the mid 1990s. Penalties have been made more stringent, more efficient means have been developed to trace the financial gain from the offence, opportunities for money laundering have been prevented and the police has obtained ample new powers of inquiry. New administrative measures have been directed towards drug users, such as introducing drug tests in working life, checking the applicants criminal record for certain jobs, as well as the threat of losing one s driving licence in cases where a physician has established drug addiction. In the 1990s the prevention of drug crimes and their disclosure were made part of the police s control activities nationwide. This could clearly be seen in increased criminal statistics. There are humiliating elements associated with the police s drug control that should be eliminated for the benefit of everybody. Furthermore, the criminal control is directed towards persons in a weak socio-economic position. A drug verdict may set off a marginalization process that may be very difficult to halt. Drug control is selective and generates repressive practises. The special status accorded drug problems is also revealed in the way in which the treatment of drug addicts has developed.

Primordial Perturbations from a Self-interacting Curvaton

Inflation is a period of accelerated expansion in the very early universe, which has the appealing aspect that it can create primordial perturbations via quantum fluctuations. These primordial perturbations have been observed in the cosmic microwave background, and these perturbations also function as the seeds of all large-scale structure in the universe. Curvaton models are simple modifications of the standard inflationary paradigm, where inflation is driven by the energy density of the inflaton, but another field, the curvaton, is responsible for producing the primordial perturbations. The curvaton decays after inflation as ended, where the isocurvature perturbations of the curvaton are converted into adiabatic perturbations. Since the curvaton must decay, it must have some interactions. Additionally realistic curvaton models typically have some self-interactions. In this work we consider self-interacting curvaton models, where the self-interaction is a monomial in the potential, suppressed by the Planck scale, and thus the self-interaction is very weak. Nevertheless, since the self-interaction makes the equations of motion non-linear, it can modify the behaviour of the model very drastically. The most intriguing aspect of this behaviour is that the final properties of the perturbations become highly dependent on the initial values. Departures of Gaussian distribution are important observables of the primordial perturbations. Due to the non-linearity of the self-interacting curvaton model and its sensitivity to initial conditions, it can produce significant non-Gaussianity of the primordial perturbations. In this work we investigate the non-Gaussianity produced by the self-interacting curvaton, and demonstrate that the non-Gaussianity parameters do not obey the analytically derived approximate relations often cited in the literature. Furthermore we also consider a self-interacting curvaton with a mass in the TeV-scale. Motivated by realistic particle physics models such as the Minimally Supersymmetric Standard Model, we demonstrate that a curvaton model within the mass range can be responsible for the observed perturbations if it can decay late enough.

Maan magneettikentän dipolimallin toimivuus inklinaatiojakauman perusteella

The magnetic field of the Earth is 99 % of the internal origin and generated in the outer liquid core by the dynamo principle. In the 19th century, Carl Friedrich Gauss proved that the field can be described by a sum of spherical harmonic terms. Presently, this theory is the basis of e.g. IGRF models (International Geomagnetic Reference Field), which are the most accurate description available for the geomagnetic field. In average, dipole forms 3/4 and non-dipolar terms 1/4 of the instantaneous field, but the temporal mean of the field is assumed to be a pure geocentric axial dipolar field. The validity of this GAD (Geocentric Axial Dipole) hypothesis has been estimated by using several methods. In this work, the testing rests on the frequency dependence of inclination with respect to latitude. Each combination of dipole (GAD), quadrupole (G2) and octupole (G3) produces a distinct inclination distribution. These theoretical distributions have been compared with those calculated from empirical observations from different continents, and last, from the entire globe. Only data from Precambrian rocks (over 542 million years old) has been used in this work. The basic assumption is that during the long-term course of drifting continents, the globe is sampled adequately. There were 2823 observations altogether in the paleomagnetic database of the University of Helsinki. The effect of the quality of observations, as well as the age and rocktype, has been tested. For comparison between theoretical and empirical distributions, chi-square testing has been applied. In addition, spatiotemporal binning has effectively been used to remove the errors caused by multiple observations. The modelling from igneous rock data tells that the average magnetic field of the Earth is best described by a combination of a geocentric dipole and a very weak octupole (less than 10 % of GAD). Filtering and binning gave distributions a more GAD-like appearance, but deviation from GAD increased as a function of the age of rocks. The distribution calculated from so called keypoles, the most reliable determinations, behaves almost like GAD, having a zero quadrupole and an octupole 1 % of GAD. In no earlier study, past-400-Ma rocks have given a result so close to GAD, but low inclinations have been prominent especially in the sedimentary data. Despite these results, a greater deal of high-quality data and a proof of the long-term randomness of the Earth's continental motions are needed to make sure the dipole model holds true.

Matkailurakentaminen ja sen diskursiivinen rakentuminen Kilpisjärvellä

This master s thesis examines tourism related housing and related discourses in the village of Kilpisjärvi, Finland. I study the tourism development in Kilpisjärvi and the debate related to this process. My methodology is based on discourse and content analysis. The purpose of this study is to examine and classify the discourses of tourism related housing and what are the lessons learned from the recent development of Kilpisjärvi. Kilpisjärvi is the northernmost village in western Finnish Lapland, located in the middle of the highest mountain area of Finland. The area has been reindeer herding area of Saami people for centuries, but it has lacked permanent settlement until the beginning of 20th century. The first tourist accommodation was built in 1930s, followed by the road in 1940s and the hotel in 1950s. Traditionally the area has attracted skiers and hikers. The area is also known for its extraordinary nature and rare plant life. Tourism development was slow in Kilpisjärvi until the turn of millennium when rapid growth in tourism related housing was triggered by extensive land use planning. Small wilderness village of Kilpisjärvi has grown to a tourism centre with over 800 beds in commercial enterprises, more than hundred second-homes, and two large caravan areas. This development has raised conflicts among villagers. The empirical part of this study is based on the interviews of 17 permanent dwellers of Kilpisjärvi and three Norwegian cottage owners. Six discourses can be distinguished: 1) Nature and landscape, 2) Economy, 3) Place, 4)Reindeer herding, 5) Governance and 6) Possibilities to influence decision-making. The first discourse stressed that tourism development and building should adapt to nature and landscape, while economic discourse stressed the economical importance of tourism to Kilpisjärvi and the municipality of Enontekiö. The third discourse noted the change of Kilpisjärvi as a place due to the boom of tourism development. The discourse of reindeer herding was clearly distinguished from others, seeing tourism development merely negative. Governance was seen as an important tool in regulating development, but many saw that the municipal administration has failed to take into account other aspects of tourism development than economical factors. Many villagers saw their influence in decision-making weak, while landowners and municipal decision-makers were seen as oligarchy in land-use planning regardless of formal participatory planning process enforced by law. I conclude that it is important to take into account the diversity of local discourses in tourism development and land use issues. Transparent and genuine participatory planning process would promote sustainable development, prevent conflicts and allow decisions and development which would satisfy larger number of local dwellers than presently.

Binaural Localization and Masking

Binaural experiments are described which indicate that the ability of the brain to localize a desired sound and to suppress undesired sounds coming from other directions can be traced in part to the different times of arrival of a sound at the two ears. It is suggested that the brain inserts a time delay in one of the two nerve paths associated with the ears so as to be able to compare, and thus concentrate on, those sounds arriving at the ears with this particular time of arrival distance.The ability to perceive weak sounds binaurally in the presence of noise is shown to be a simple function of the direction of the desired sound and noise. An explanation is given for the effect reported by Koenig that front and rear confusion is avoided by head movements.

A novel fibre-coated sorbent for rapid removal of heavy metals from wastewater. Sorption of Zinc(II) from dilute aqueous solutions in the presence of high concentrations of common salts

The commercial acrylic fibre "Cashmilon" was partially hydrolyzed to convert a fraction of its nitrile (-CN) groups to carboxylic acid (-COOH) groups and then coated with polyethylenimine (PEI) resin and cross-linked with glutaraldehyde to produce a novel gel-coated fibrous sorbent with multiple functionalities of cationic, anionic and chelating types, and significantly faster sorption kinetics than bead-form sorbents. The sorption properties of the fibrous sorbent were measured using Zn(II) in aqueous solution as the sorbate to determine the effects of pH and the presence of common ions in the solution on the sorption capacity. The rate of sorption on the gel-coated fibre was measured in comparison with that on Amberlite IRA-68 weak-base resin beads, to demonstrate the marked difference between fibre and bead-form sorbents in their kinetic behaviour.

Phylogenetic analyses reveal high levels of polyphyly among pleurocarpous lineages as well as novel clades

Phylogenetic analyses of the Hypnales usually show the same picture of poorly resolved trees with a large number of polyphyletic taxa and low support for the few reconstructed clades. One odd clade, however, consisting of three genera that are currently treated either within the Leskeaceae (Miyabea) or Neckeraceae (Homaliadelphus and Bissetia), was retrieved in a previously published phylogeny based on chloroplast rbcL. In order to elucidate the reliability of the observed Homaliadelphus - Miyabea - Bissetia - clade (HMB-clade) and to reveal its phylogenetic relationships a molecular study based on a representative set of hypnalean taxa was performed. Sequence data from all three genomes, namely the ITS1 and 2 (nuclear), the trnS-rps4-trnT-trnL-trnF cluster (plastid), the nad5 intron (mitochondrial), were analyzed. Although the phylogenetic reconstruction of the combined data set was not fully resolved regarding the backbone it clearly indicated the polyphyletic nature of various hypnalean families, such as the Leskeaceae, Hypnaceae, Hylocomiaceae, Neckeraceae, Leptodontaceae and Anomodontaceae with respect to the included taxa. In addition the results favor the inclusion of the Leptodontaceae and Thamnobryaceae in the Neckeraceae. The maximally supported HMB-clade consisting of the three genera Homaliadelphus (2-3 species), Miyabea (3 species) and Bissetia (1 species) is resolved sister to a so far unnamed clade comprising Taxiphyllum aomoriense, Glossadelphus ogatae and Leptopterigynandrum. The well-resolved and supported HMB-clade, here formally described as the Miyabeaceae, fam. nov. is additionally supported by morphological characters such as strongly incrassate, porose leaf cells, a relatively weak and diffuse costa and the presence of dwarf males. The latter are absent in the Neckeraceae and the Leskeaceae. It is essentially an East Asian family, with one species occurring in North America.

Propagation of an isothermal shock in stellar envelopes

We have studied in this paper the propagation of an isothermal shock in the radiative envelopes of the Bosman-Crespin model for a hot star and Boury’s model for a giant star. A spherically symmetric disturbance is supposed to be originated at or outside the surface of the convective core. We have used Whitham’s rule to study the variation in the shock strength and the shock velocity after modifying it for inclusion of pressure, energy and flux of radiation. We find the shock increases in strength as it propagates through the envelopes of decreasing density, pressure and temperature. The velocity of the shock decreases for very weak initial shock strengths, for intermediate initial shock strength it first decreases and then increases, while for large initial shock strength, it always increases. This aspect of the problem throws some light on the stability of the models under consideration.

Evolution of the Neckeraceae (Bryophyta): resolving the backbone phylogeny

Earlier phylogenetic studies, including species belonging to the Neckeraceae, have indicated that this pleurocarpous moss family shares a strongly supported sister group relationship with the Lembophyllaceae, but the family delimitation of the former needs adjustment. To test the monophyly of the Neckeraceae, as well as to redefine the family circumscription and to pinpoint its phylogenetic position in a larger context, a phylogenetic study based on molecular data was carried out. Sequence data were compiled, combining data from all three genomes: nuclear ITS1 and 2, plastid trnS-rps4-trnT-trnL-trnF and rpl16, and mitochondrial nad5 intron. The Neckeraceae have sometimes been divided into the two families, Neckeraceae and Thamnobryaceae, a division rejected here. Both parsimony and Bayesian analyses of molecular data revealed that the family concept of the Neckeraceae needs several further adjustments, such as the exclusion of some individual species and smaller genera as well as the inclusion of the Leptodontaceae. Within the family three well-supported clades (A, B and C) can be distinguished. Members of clade A are mainly non-Asiatic and nontropical. Most species have a weak costa and immersed capsules with reduced peristomes (mainly Neckera spp.) and the teeth at the leaf margins are usually unicellular. Clade B members are also mainly non-Asiatic. They are typically fairly robust, distinctly stipilate, having a single, at least relatively strong costa, long setae (capsules exserted), and the peristomes are well developed or only somewhat reduced. Members of clade C are essentially Asiatic and tropical. The species of this clade usually have a strong costa and a long seta, the seta often being mammillose in its upper part. The peristome types in this clade are mixed, since both reduced and unreduced types are found. Several neckeraceous genera that were recognised on a morphological basis are polyphyletic (e.g. Neckera, Homalia, Thamnobryum, Porotrichum). Ancestral state reconstructions revealed that currently used diagnostic traits, such as the leaf asymmetry and costa strength are highly homoplastic. Similarly, the reconstructions revealed that the 'reduced' sporophyte features have evolved independently in each of the three clades.

Raman and infra-red spectra of crystalline ammonium sulphamate

Raman spectrum of a single crystal of ammonium sulphamate has been recorded for the two different orientations using λ 2537 resonance radiation of the mercury as the exciter. Thirty-four Raman lines have been observed of which eight belong to the lattice oscillations. Weak hydrogen bonding of NH2 group in the crystal was predicted. The infra-red absorption spectrum of the substance was taken in the powder form in potassium bromide disc, using Carl Zeiss UR10 IR spectrometer. Thirty-five absorption maxima could be identified.

Studies on oxovanadium (IV) oxalate hydrates

The oxalato complexes, VOC2O4·2H2O and VOC2O4·4H2O, are described. Their magnetic moments correspond to one unpaired electron showing the tetravalency of vanadium. They are monomeric in aqueous solution. Thermal studies suggest VO2 formation when the compounds are decomposed. Infrared spectra reveal covalent bonding between the vanadium and the oxalate group and the coordinated water. The tetrahydrate has also some lattice held water. The weak band at 780 mμ and a shoulder at 600 mμ are due to d ↔ d transitions and the absorption in the ultra violet is due to charge transfer within the VO2+ group. The dihydrate is assigned a stable five co-ordinated pyramidal structure; while the tetrahydrate, a distorted octahedron with one water molecule loosely bound along the V---O axis and the other outside the co-ordination sphere.

4-(5-Phenyl-1,2,4-triazolo[3,4-a]isoquinolin--yl)benzonitrile

In the title molecule, C23H14N4, the triazoloisoquinoline ring system is nearly planar, with an r.m.s. deviation of 0.038 (2) angstrom and a maximum deviation of -0.030 (2) angstrom from the mean plane of the triazole ring C atom which is bonded to the benzene ring. The benzene and phenyl rings are twisted by 57.65 (8) and 53.60 (9)degrees, respectively, with respect to the mean plane of the triazoloisoquinoline ring system. In the crystal structure, molecules are linked by weak aromatic pi-pi interactions [centroid-centroid distance = 3.8074 (12) angstrom]. In addition, the crystal structure exhibits a nonclassical intermolecular C-H center dot center dot center dot N hydrogen bond.

3-(4-Chlorophenyl)-5-phenyl-1,2,4-triazolo[3,4-a]isoquinoline

In the title molecule, C22H14ClN3, the triazoloisoquinoline ring system is approximately planar, with an r.m.s. deviation of 0.033 (2) angstrom and a maximum departure from the mean plane of 0.062 (1) angstrom for the triazole ring C atom, bonded to the benzene ring. The benzene and phenyl rings are twisted by 57.02 (6) and 62.16 (6)degrees, respectively, to the mean plane of the triazoloisoquinoline ring system. The molecule is stabilized by a weak intramolecular pi-pi interaction [centroid-centroid distance = 3.7089 (10) angstrom] between the benzene and phenyl rings. In the crystal structure, weak intermolecular C-H center dot center dot center dot N hydrogen bonds and C-H center dot center dot center dot pi interactions link the molecules.