Quantifying Accuracy Improvement in Sets of Pooled Judgments: Does Dialectical Bootstrapping Work?

Galton (1907) first demonstrated the "wisdom of crowds" phenomenon by averaging independent estimates of unknown quantities given by many individuals. Herzog and Hertwig (2009; hereafter H&H in Psychological Science) showed that individuals' own estimates can be improved by asking them to make two estimates at separate times and averaging them. H&H claimed to observe far greater improvement in accuracy when participants received "dialectical" instructions to consider why their first estimate might be wrong before making their second estimates than when they received standard instructions. We reanalyzed H&H's data using measures of accuracy that are unrelated to the frequency of identical first and second responses and found that participants in both conditions improved their accuracy to an equal degree.

The influence of work context on demand for master's studies: a comparative analysisi between Brasil and Spain

The communication presents the results of an investigation of exploratory and comparative character which objective is to analyze the influence of the actual labour situation into the demand of official master studies in the field of education. The study has been developed in two countries with a very different labour situation: Brasil, country of economic expansion and Spain, in recession due to the actual economic crisis. In that sense, the study provides data for deep thinking about the influence of the constriction or expansion of employment on the behaviour and demand of the students who access master studies and on how the previous formative and labour trajectory affects their expectations, demands and future projects. The working methodology is qualitative and the strategy for data collection the “focus group”. As a first approach, two groups of discussion have been formed with master students. A first one with students from Universidad de Barcelona- España and another one with members of Universidade do Vale do Itajaí- Brasil. Then, we constituted a mixed group of discussion in order to analyze differences and similarities.

The european higher education area at work: Lights and shadows defining continuous assessment

The aim of this paper is to analyse how learning assessment, particularly the Continuous Assessment system, has been defined in the Public Administration and Management Diploma Course of the University of Barcelona (Spain). This course was a pioneering experiment at this university in implementing the guidelines of the European Higher Education Area (EHEA), and thus represents a good case study for verifying whether one of the cornerstones of the EHEA has been accomplished with success. Using data obtained from the Teaching Plans elaborated by the lecturers of each subject, we are able to establish that the CA system has been progressively accepted to such an extent that it is now the assessment formula used by practically all of the lecturers, conforming in this way to the protocols laid down by the Faculty of Law in which this diploma course is taught. Nevertheless, we find that high dispersion exists in how Continuous Assessment is actually defined. Indeed, it seems that there is no unified view of how Continuous Assessment should be performed. This dispersion, however, seems to diminish over time and raises some questions about the advisability of agreement on criteria, considering the potential which CA has as a pedagogical tool. Moreover, we find that the Unique Assessment system, which students may also apply for, is an option chosen only by a minority, with lecturers usually defining it as merely a theoretical and/or practical test, of little innovation in relation to traditional tests.

INTERMED predicts non-return to work in an occupational rehabilitation setting for individuals with orthopaedic trauma-part 2

Introduction.- The model presented in part I (19 predictors) had good predictive values for non-return to work 2 years after vocational rehabilitation for orthopaedic trauma. However, the number of predictors is high for the detection of patients at risk in a clinic. For example, the INTERMED for itself consists of 20 questions and needs 20 minutes to be filled in. For this reason, the aim of this study was to compare the predictive value of different models for the prediction of non-return to work.Patients and methods.- In this longitudinal prospective study, the cohort consisted of 2156 included inpatients with orthopaedic trauma attending a rehabilitation hospital after a work, traffic, sport or leisure related injury. Two years after discharge, 1502 patients returned a questionnaire regarding return to work. We compared the area under the receiver-operator-characteristics curve (ROC) between different models: INTERMED total score, the 4 partial INTERMED scores, the items of the most predictive partial score; with or without confounders.Results.- The ROC for the total score of the INTERMED plus the five confounders of the of the part one (qualified work, speaking French, lesion of upper extremity, education and age) was 0.72. The sole partial INTERMED score to predict return to work was the social sub score. The ROC for the five items of the latter sub score of the INTERMED was 0.69. The ROC for the five items of the social subscale of the INTERMED combined with five predictors was 0.73. This was significantly better than the use of only the five items from INTERMED alone (delta 0.034; 95% CI 0.017 to .050). The model presented in part I (INTERMED total score plus 18 predictors) was not significantly better than the five items INTERMED social score plus five confounders.Discussion.- The use of a model with ten variables (INTERMED social five items plus five confounders) has good predictive value to detect patients not returning to work after vocational rehabilitation after orthopaedic trauma. The parsimony of this model facilitates its use in a clinic for the detection of patients at risk.

The influence of work context on demand for master's studies: a comparative analysisi between Brasil and Spain

The communication presents the results of an investigation of exploratory and comparative character which objective is to analyze the influence of the actual labour situation into the demand of official master studies in the field of education. The study has been developed in two countries with a very different labour situation: Brasil, country of economic expansion and Spain, in recession due to the actual economic crisis. In that sense, the study provides data for deep thinking about the influence of the constriction or expansion of employment on the behaviour and demand of the students who access master studies and on how the previous formative and labour trajectory affects their expectations, demands and future projects. The working methodology is qualitative and the strategy for data collection the “focus group”. As a first approach, two groups of discussion have been formed with master students. A first one with students from Universidad de Barcelona- España and another one with members of Universidade do Vale do Itajaí- Brasil. Then, we constituted a mixed group of discussion in order to analyze differences and similarities.

¿Y después del trabajo, qué? Más allá de la integración laboral de las personas con discapacidad = What happens after work? Going further than labour integration for disabled people

La actividad profesional es fundamental en la vida de cualquier persona y en el caso de las que padecen una discapacidad tiene una gran importancia para contribuir a configurar su identidad adulta. En este sentido, la finalidad del artículo es valorar la importancia del trabajo en los procesos de participación social y de calidad de vida de las personas con discapacidad. Por ello, en el artículo se pone de manifiesto la relación que se establece entre la dimensión laboral y la integración social de los individuos con discapacidad mediante el análisis de investigaciones desarrolladas en nuestro contexto, entre las que figuran diversos estudios realizados por nuestro grupo de investigación durante los últimos años. Con la voluntad de conocer con más detalle esta cuestión, se presenta una investigación reciente realizada por nuestro equipo. En ella desarrollamos un estudio de casos centrado en personas con discapacidad psíquica que han participado en experiencias de integración laboral en el mercado ordinario, con el objetivo de obtener información sobre la incidencia de la inserción laboral en diferentes dimensiones de la vida de los trabajadores con discapacidad. Los resultados nos permiten valorar que la experiencia genera cambios positivos, sobre todo a nivel personal (expectativas personales, potenciación del proyecto de vida, mejora de competencias…). Sin embargo, a pesar de que se aprecian mejoras en la dimensión social, el estudio plantea la necesidad de emprender acciones alternativas para potenciar la participación comunitaria de las personas implicadas en la investigación. El artículo concluye con algunas propuestas orientadas a mejorar los procesos de inserción social del colectivo

Effects of three harvesting work methods on Harwarder productivity in final felling

Abstract

Empirics of the international inequality in CO2 emissions intensity: explanatory factors according to complementary decomposition methodologies

This paper analyses the international inequalities in CO2 emissions intensity for the period 1971–2009 and assesses explanatory factors. Multiplicative, group and additive methodologies of inequality decomposition are employed. The first allows us to clarify the separated role of the carbonisation index and the energy intensity in the pattern observed for inequalities in CO2 intensities; the second allows us to understand the role of regional groups; and the third allows us to investigate the role of different fossil energy sources (coal, oil and gas). The results show that, first, the reduction in global emissions intensity has coincided with a significant reduction in international inequality. Second, the bulk of this inequality and its reduction are attributed to differences between the groups of countries considered. Third, coal is the main energy source explaining these inequalities, although the growth in the relative contribution of gas is also remarkable. Fourth, the bulk of inequalities between countries and its decline are explained by differences in energy intensities, although there are significant differences in the patterns demonstrated by different groups of countries. JEL codes: D39; Q43; Q56. Key words: CO2 international distribution, inequality decomposition, CO2 emissions intensity

Pathway databases and tools for their exploitation: benefits, current limitations and challenges

In past years, comprehensive representations of cell signalling pathways have been developed by manual curation from literature, which requires huge effort and would benefit from information stored in databases and from automatic retrieval and integration methods. Once a reconstruction of the network of interactions is achieved, analysis of its structural features and its dynamic behaviour can take place. Mathematical modelling techniques are used to simulate the complex behaviour of cell signalling networks, which ultimately sheds light on the mechanisms leading to complex diseases or helps in the identification of drug targets. A variety of databases containing information on cell signalling pathways have been developed in conjunction with methodologies to access and analyse the data. In principle, the scenario is prepared to make the most of this information for the analysis of the dynamics of signalling pathways. However, are the knowledge repositories of signalling pathways ready to realize the systems biology promise? In this article we aim to initiate this discussion and to provide some insights on this issue.

Calibration of Highway Safety Manual Work Zone Crash Modification Factors, TPF-5(081), 2014

The Highway Safety Manual is the national safety manual that provides quantitative methods for analyzing highway safety. The HSM presents crash modification factors related to work zone characteristics such as work zone duration and length. These crash modification factors were based on high-impact work zones in California. Therefore there was a need to use work zone and safety data from the Midwest to calibrate these crash modification factors for use in the Midwest. Almost 11,000 Missouri freeway work zones were analyzed to derive a representative and stratified sample of 162 work zones. The 162 work zones was more than four times the number of work zones used in the HSM. This dataset was used for modeling and testing crash modification factors applicable to the Midwest. The dataset contained work zones ranging from 0.76 mile to 9.24 miles and with durations from 16 days to 590 days. A combined fatal/injury/non-injury model produced a R2 fit of 0.9079 and a prediction slope of 0.963. The resulting crash modification factors of 1.01 for duration and 0.58 for length were smaller than the values in the HSM. Two practical application examples illustrate the use of the crash modification factors for comparing alternate work zone setups.