Overcoming limitations of modelling rare species by using ensembles of small models

1. Species distribution models (SDMs) have become a standard tool in ecology and applied conservation biology. Modelling rare and threatened species is particularly important for conservation purposes. However, modelling rare species is difficult because the combination of few occurrences and many predictor variables easily leads to model overfitting. A new strategy using ensembles of small models was recently developed in an attempt to overcome this limitation of rare species modelling and has been tested successfully for only a single species so far. Here, we aim to test the approach more comprehensively on a large number of species including a transferability assessment. 2. For each species numerous small (here bivariate) models were calibrated, evaluated and averaged to an ensemble weighted by AUC scores. These 'ensembles of small models' (ESMs) were compared to standard Species Distribution Models (SDMs) using three commonly used modelling techniques (GLM, GBM, Maxent) and their ensemble prediction. We tested 107 rare and under-sampled plant species of conservation concern in Switzerland. 3. We show that ESMs performed significantly better than standard SDMs. The rarer the species, the more pronounced the effects were. ESMs were also superior to standard SDMs and their ensemble when they were independently evaluated using a transferability assessment. 4. By averaging simple small models to an ensemble, ESMs avoid overfitting without losing explanatory power through reducing the number of predictor variables. They further improve the reliability of species distribution models, especially for rare species, and thus help to overcome limitations of modelling rare species.

Electrostimulation mapping of comprehension of auditory and visual words.

In order to spare functional areas during the removal of brain tumours, electrical stimulation mapping was used in 90 patients (77 in the left hemisphere and 13 in the right; 2754 cortical sites tested). Language functions were studied with a special focus on comprehension of auditory and visual words and the semantic system. In addition to naming, patients were asked to perform pointing tasks from auditory and visual stimuli (using sets of 4 different images controlled for familiarity), and also auditory object (sound recognition) and Token test tasks. Ninety-two auditory comprehension interference sites were observed. We found that the process of auditory comprehension involved a few, fine-grained, sub-centimetre cortical territories. Early stages of speech comprehension seem to relate to two posterior regions in the left superior temporal gyrus. Downstream lexical-semantic speech processing and sound analysis involved 2 pathways, along the anterior part of the left superior temporal gyrus, and posteriorly around the supramarginal and middle temporal gyri. Electrostimulation experimentally dissociated perceptual consciousness attached to speech comprehension. The initial word discrimination process can be considered as an "automatic" stage, the attention feedback not being impaired by stimulation as would be the case at the lexical-semantic stage. Multimodal organization of the superior temporal gyrus was also detected since some neurones could be involved in comprehension of visual material and naming. These findings demonstrate a fine graded, sub-centimetre, cortical representation of speech comprehension processing mainly in the left superior temporal gyrus and are in line with those described in dual stream models of language comprehension processing.

Evaluating the impact of summer vacation on the visual acuity of AMD patients treated with ranibizumab.

PurposeTo evaluate the impact of traditional French summer vacation on visual acuity and spectral domain-optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) of Wet AMD patients being treated with intravitreal Ranibizumab.MethodsThis was a consecutive, comparative, single-centre, prospective analysis. All patients who were being treated with intravitreal injection of 0.5 mg ranibizumab at Cergy Pontoise Hospital, Department of Ophthalmology between July 2013 and September 2014 were included. Patients were divided into two groups: (A) patients who skipped one ranibizumab intravitreal injection during holidays, and (B) patients who received injection during their holidays. Evaluations occurred prior to traditional holiday (baseline) and 2 months later, consisting of BCVA using ETDRS, and a complete ophthalmic examination that included slit-lamp biomicroscopy, fundus examination, fluorescein angiography (FA), indocyanine green angiography (ICGA), and spectral domain-optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT). All patients were being treated with PRN anti-VEGF regimen and criteria for reinjection included a visual acuity loss >5 ETDRS letters and/or an increase of central retinal thickness, presence of subretinal fluid, intraretinal fluid, or pigment epithelium detachment. If reinjection criteria were not met, patients were advised to return in 4 weeks.ResultsThe mean visual acuity change was -0.071±0.149 (LogMAR) in group A and +0.003±0.178 in group B (P=0.041). At the second visit (2 months after preholidays visit), 61.8% of patients in group A had SRF and/or intraretinal cysts, and only 27.6% of patients in group B. There was a significant difference in the persistence of fluid between the two groups (P=0.007, χ(2)-test).ConclusionThis cases series demonstrated the detrimental impact of holidays on visual acuity in patients treated with ranibizumab for AMD, which, in spite of their treatment regimen, still leave in vacation. Therefore, it is important to convey the message of treatment adherence to patients, despite their need of holidays.

Combining niche modelling and landscape genetics to study local adaptation: A novel approach illustrated using alpine plants

Understanding the factors that shape adaptive genetic variation across species niches has become of paramount importance in evolutionary ecology, especially to understand how adaptation to changing climate affects the geographic range of species. The distribution of adaptive alleles in the ecological niche is determined by the emergence of novel mutations, their fitness consequences and gene flow that connects populations across species niches. Striking demographical differences and source sink dynamics of populations between the centre and the margin of the niche can play a major role in the emergence and spread of adaptive alleles. Although some theoretical predictions have long been proposed, the origin and distribution of adaptive alleles within species niches remain untested. In this paper, we propose and discuss a novel empirical approach that combines landscape genetics with species niche modelling, to test whether alleles that confer local adaptation are more likely to occur in either marginal or central populations of species niches. We illustrate this new approach by using a published data set of 21 alpine plant species genotyped with a total of 2483 amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLP), distributed over more than 1733 sampling sites across the Alps. Based on the assumption that alleles that were statistically associated with environmental variables were adaptive, we found that adaptive alleles in the margin of a species niche were also present in the niche centre, which suggests that adaptation originates in the niche centre. These findings corroborate models of species range evolution, in which the centre of the niche contributes to the emergence of novel adaptive alleles, which diffuse towards niche margins and facilitate niche and range expansion through subsequent local adaptation. Although these results need to be confirmed via fitness measurements in natural populations and functionally characterised genetic sequences, this study provides a first step towards understanding how adaptive genetic variation emerges and shapes species niches and geographic ranges along environmental gradients.

Study and modelling of the effect of herbicides pulse exposure on freshwater microalgae

De plus en plus de substances chimiques sont émises et détectées dans l'environnement.Parmi ces substances, on trouve les herbicides qui sont utilisés en agriculture pour luttercontre la présence des mauvaises herbes. Après leur application sur les sols, les herbicidespeuvent être entrainés par les eaux de pluie jusque dans les ruisseaux et les rivières. Lesconcentrations de ces substances varient donc de manière importante dans les systèmesaquatiques en période de pluie ou en période de temps sec. Des pics élevés de concentrationssont suivis de période de concentrations très faibles ou nulles. Les herbicides présents dans lescours d'eau peuvent engendrer des effets toxiques sur les algues et les plantes aquatiques. Orles tests classiques d'écotoxicologie effectués en laboratoire sont réalisés en exposant lesespèces vivantes à des polluants de manière continue. Ils ne permettent donc pas d'évaluer leseffets des concentrations fluctuantes comme celles des herbicides. Le but de cette thèse estd'étudier et de modéliser les effets des concentrations fluctuantes d'herbicide sur les espècesde microalgues vertes Scenedesmus vacuolatus et Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata. Desexpériences en laboratoire ont également été effectuées dans le but de valider le modèle.Quatre herbicides ont été testés. Il s'agit de l'atrazine (utilisé jusqu'à récemment pour lemaïs), du diuron (utilisé dans la vigne), de l'isoproturon (utilisé pour les céréales) et du Smétolachlore(utilisé pour le maïs). Les résultats de ce travail de thèse indiquent que les effetsdes concentrations fluctuantes d'herbicide peuvent être modélisés sur des algues d'eau douce.Le modèle est relativement simple pour les inhibiteurs de la photosynthèse tels que l'atrazine,le diuron ou l'isoproturon. Il nécessite la connaissance de deux paramètres, le taux decroissance de l'algue sans polluant et la courbe dose-réponse pour chaque substance.Cependant, des expériences supplémentaires doivent être réalisées si la substance étudiéeinduit un délai de l'effet et du rétablissement ou si une algue est cultivée avec une autre alguedans le même milieu de croissance. Le modèle pourrait également être adapté pour tenircompte des mélanges de substances. Appliqué pour prédire les effets sur les algues descénarios réels, le modèle montre que les longs pics de concentrations jouent le rôle le plusimportant. Il est donc crucial de les mesurer lors du monitoring des cours d'eau. D'autre part,une évaluation du risque effectuée avec ce modèle montre que l'impact des pics deconcentrations sur les espèces les plus sensibles est total. Cela met en évidence, une fois deplus, l'importance de tenir compte de ces concentrations fluctuantes dans l'évaluation durisque environnemental des herbicides, mais également des autres polluants.

Comparison of acute non-visual bright light responses in patients with optic nerve disease, glaucoma and healthy controls.

This study examined the effect of optic nerve disease, hence retinal ganglion cell loss, on non-visual functions related to melanopsin signalling. Test subjects were patients with bilateral visual loss and optic atrophy from either hereditary optic neuropathy (n = 11) or glaucoma (n = 11). We measured melatonin suppression, subjective sleepiness and cognitive functions in response to bright light exposure in the evening. We also quantified the post-illumination pupil response to a blue light stimulus. All results were compared to age-matched controls (n = 22). Both groups of patients showed similar melatonin suppression when compared to their controls. Greater melatonin suppression was intra-individually correlated to larger post-illumination pupil response in patients and controls. Only the glaucoma patients demonstrated a relative attenuation of their pupil response. In addition, they were sleepier with slower reaction times during nocturnal light exposure. In conclusion, glaucomatous, but not hereditary, optic neuropathy is associated with reduced acute light effects. At mild to moderate stages of disease, this is detected only in the pupil function and not in responses conveyed via the retinohypothalamic tract such as melatonin suppression.

Visual performance in preterm infants with brain injuries compared with low-risk preterm infants

Background: Neonatal brain injuries are the main cause of visual deficit produced by damage to posterior visual pathways.While there are several studies of visual function in low-risk preterm infants or older children with brain injuries, research in children of early age is lacking. Aim: To assess several aspects of visual function in preterm infants with brain injuries and to compare them with another group of low-risk preterm infants of the same age. Study design and subjects: Forty-eight preterm infants with brain injuries and 56 low-risk preterm infants. Outcome measures: The ML Leonhardt Battery of Optotypes was used to assess visual functions. This test was previously validated at a post-menstrual age of 40 weeks in newborns and at 30-plus weeks in preterm infants. Results: The group of preterminfants with brain lesions showed a delayed pattern of visual functions in alertness, fixation, visual attention and tracking behavior compared to infants in the healthy preterm group. The differences between both groups, in the visual behaviors analyzed were around 30%. These visual functions could be identified from the first weeks of life. Conclusion: Our results confirm the importance of using a straightforward screening test with preterminfants in order to assess altered visual function, especially in infants with brain injuries. The findings also highlight the need to provide visual stimulation very early on in life.

Spinal cord injury affects the interplay between visual and sensorimotor representations of the body.

The brain integrates multiple sensory inputs, including somatosensory and visual inputs, to produce a representation of the body. Spinal cord injury (SCI) interrupts the communication between brain and body and the effects of this deafferentation on body representation are poorly understood. We investigated whether the relative weight of somatosensory and visual frames of reference for body representation is altered in individuals with incomplete or complete SCI (affecting lower limbs' somatosensation), with respect to controls. To study the influence of afferent somatosensory information on body representation, participants verbally judged the laterality of rotated images of feet, hands, and whole-bodies (mental rotation task) in two different postures (participants' body parts were hidden from view). We found that (i) complete SCI disrupts the influence of postural changes on the representation of the deafferented body parts (feet, but not hands) and (ii) regardless of posture, whole-body representation progressively deteriorates proportionally to SCI completeness. These results demonstrate that the cortical representation of the body is dynamic, responsive, and adaptable to contingent conditions, in that the role of somatosensation is altered and partially compensated with a change in the relative weight of somatosensory versus visual bodily representations.

Modelling the consequences of a reduction in alcohol consumption among patients with alcohol dependence based on real-life observational data.

BACKGROUND: Most available pharmacotherapies for alcohol-dependent patients target abstinence; however, reduced alcohol consumption may be a more realistic goal. Using randomized clinical trial (RCT) data, a previous microsimulation model evaluated the clinical relevance of reduced consumption in terms of avoided alcohol-attributable events. Using real-life observational data, the current analysis aimed to adapt the model and confirm previous findings about the clinical relevance of reduced alcohol consumption. METHODS: Based on the prospective observational CONTROL study, evaluating daily alcohol consumption among alcohol-dependent patients, the model predicted the probability of drinking any alcohol during a given day. Predicted daily alcohol consumption was simulated in a hypothetical sample of 200,000 patients observed over a year. Individual total alcohol consumption (TAC) and number of heavy drinking days (HDD) were derived. Using published risk equations, probabilities of alcohol-attributable adverse health events (e.g., hospitalizations or death) corresponding to simulated consumptions were computed, and aggregated for categories of patients defined by HDDs and TAC (expressed per 100,000 patient-years). Sensitivity analyses tested model robustness. RESULTS: Shifting from >220 HDDs per year to 120-140 HDDs and shifting from 36,000-39,000 g TAC per year (120-130 g/day) to 15,000-18,000 g TAC per year (50-60 g/day) impacted substantially on the incidence of events (14,588 and 6148 events avoided per 100,000 patient-years, respectively). Results were robust to sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: This study corroborates the previous microsimulation modeling approach and, using real-life data, confirms RCT-based findings that reduced alcohol consumption is a relevant objective for consideration in alcohol dependence management to improve public health.

Modelling body mass index and endometrial cancer risk in a pooled-analysis of three case-control studies.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the relation between body mass index (BMI) and endometrial cancer risk, and to describe the shape of such a relation. DESIGN: Pooled analysis of three hospital-based case-control studies. SETTING: Italy and Switzerland. POPULATION: A total of 1449 women with endometrial cancer and 3811 controls. METHODS: Multivariate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were obtained from logistic regression models. The shape of the relation was determined using a class of flexible regression models. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The relation of BMI with endometrial cancer. RESULTS: Compared with women with BMI 18.5 to <25 kg/m(2) , the odds ratio was 5.73 (95% CI 4.28-7.68) for women with a BMI ≥35 kg/m(2) . The odds ratios were 1.10 (95% CI 1.09-1.12) and 1.63 (95% CI 1.52-1.75) respectively for an increment of BMI of 1 and 5 units. The relation was stronger in never-users of oral contraceptives (OR 3.35, 95% CI 2.78-4.03, for BMI ≥30 versus <25 kg/m(2) ) than in users (OR 1.22, 95% CI 0.56-2.67), and in women with diabetes (OR 8.10, 95% CI 4.10-16.01, for BMI ≥30 versus <25 kg/m(2) ) than in those without diabetes (OR 2.95, 95% CI 2.44-3.56). The relation was best fitted by a cubic model, although after the exclusion of the 5% upper and lower tails, it was best fitted by a linear model. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study confirm a role of elevated BMI in the aetiology of endometrial cancer and suggest that the risk in obese women increases in a cubic nonlinear fashion. The relation was stronger in never-users of oral contraceptives and in women with diabetes. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Risk of endometrial cancer increases with elevated body weight in a cubic nonlinear fashion.

¿Pueden contribuir los métodos visuales a avanzar hacia una investigación inclusiva? Un estudio sobre inclusión sociolaboral con personas con Trastorno Mental Grave (TMG) = Can visual methods help to go forward inclusive research? A study about social and labor inclusion with people with Severe Mental Illness (SMI)

En este artículo se pretende mostrar cómo la utilización de métodos visuales en la investigación contribuye a potenciar la participación activa de las personas con TMG. Se utiliza como ejemplo un estudio de caso de corte cualitativo que incorpora tres actividades de componente visual (el dibujo “el río de la vida”, las fotografías y el dibujo de proyección de futuro) para favorecer la reflexión narrada que, sobre sus experiencias y vivencias, desarrollan cinco personas con TMG. El uso de las fotografías y dibujos en este estudio permite afirmar que estas estrategias se han mostrado válidas para acceder, en la medida que los participantes han querido, a esferas de vida personales en trayectorias vitales determinadas por la enfermedad mental