The risk of airborne influenza transmission in passenger cars

Travel in passenger cars is a ubiquitous aspect of the daily activities of many people. During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic a case of probable transmission during car travel was reported in Australia, to which spread via the airborne route may have contributed. However, there are no data to indicate the likely risks of such events, and how they may vary and be mitigated. To address this knowledge gap, we estimated the risk of airborne influenza transmission in two cars (1989 model and 2005 model) by employing ventilation measurements and a variation of the Wells-Riley model. Results suggested that infection risk can be reduced by not recirculating air; however, estimated risk ranged from 59 to 99.9% for a 90 min trip when air was recirculated in the newer vehicle. These results have implications for interrupting in-car transmission of other illnesses spread by the airborne route.

Strategic project evaluation for open pit mining ventures using real options and allied econometric techniques

Open pit mine operations are complex businesses that demand a constant assessment of risk. This is because the value of a mine project is typically influenced by many underlying economic and physical uncertainties, such as metal prices, metal grades, costs, schedules, quantities, and environmental issues, among others, which are not known with much certainty at the beginning of the project. Hence, mining projects present a considerable challenge to those involved in associated investment decisions, such as the owners of the mine and other stakeholders. In general terms, when an option exists to acquire a new or operating mining project, , the owners and stock holders of the mine project need to know the value of the mining project, which is the fundamental criterion for making final decisions about going ahead with the venture capital. However, obtaining the mine project’s value is not an easy task. The reason for this is that sophisticated valuation and mine optimisation techniques, which combine advanced theories in geostatistics, statistics, engineering, economics and finance, among others, need to be used by the mine analyst or mine planner in order to assess and quantify the existing uncertainty and, consequently, the risk involved in the project investment. Furthermore, current valuation and mine optimisation techniques do not complement each other. That is valuation techniques based on real options (RO) analysis assume an expected (constant) metal grade and ore tonnage during a specified period, while mine optimisation (MO) techniques assume expected (constant) metal prices and mining costs. These assumptions are not totally correct since both sources of uncertainty—that of the orebody (metal grade and reserves of mineral), and that about the future behaviour of metal prices and mining costs—are the ones that have great impact on the value of any mining project. Consequently, the key objective of this thesis is twofold. The first objective consists of analysing and understanding the main sources of uncertainty in an open pit mining project, such as the orebody (in situ metal grade), mining costs and metal price uncertainties, and their effect on the final project value. The second objective consists of breaking down the wall of isolation between economic valuation and mine optimisation techniques in order to generate a novel open pit mine evaluation framework called the ―Integrated Valuation / Optimisation Framework (IVOF)‖. One important characteristic of this new framework is that it incorporates the RO and MO valuation techniques into a single integrated process that quantifies and describes uncertainty and risk in a mine project evaluation process, giving a more realistic estimate of the project’s value. To achieve this, novel and advanced engineering and econometric methods are used to integrate financial and geological uncertainty into dynamic risk forecasting measures. The proposed mine valuation/optimisation technique is then applied to a real gold disseminated open pit mine deposit to estimate its value in the face of orebody, mining costs and metal price uncertainties.

Identification of early-stage colorectal cancer patients at risk of relapse post-resection by immunobead reverse transcription-PCR analysis of peritoneal lavage fluid for malignant cells

Purpose: Colorectal cancer patients diagnosed with stage I or II disease are not routinely offered adjuvant chemotherapy following resection of the primary tumor. However, up to 10% of stage I and 30% of stage II patients relapse within 5 years of surgery from recurrent or metastatic disease. The aim of this study was to determine if tumor-associated markers could detect disseminated malignant cells and so identify a subgroup of patients with early-stage colorectal cancer that were at risk of relapse. Experimental Design: We recruited consecutive patients undergoing curative resection for early-stage colorectal cancer. Immunobead reverse transcription-PCR of five tumor-associated markers (carcinoembryonic antigen, laminin γ2, ephrin B4, matrilysin, and cytokeratin 20) was used to detect the presence of colon tumor cells in peripheral blood and within the peritoneal cavity of colon cancer patients perioperatively. Clinicopathologic variables were tested for their effect on survival outcomes in univariate analyses using the Kaplan-Meier method. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was done to determine whether detection of tumor cells was an independent prognostic marker for disease relapse. Results: Overall, 41 of 125 (32.8%) early-stage patients were positive for disseminated tumor cells. Patients who were marker positive for disseminated cells in post-resection lavage samples showed a significantly poorer prognosis (hazard ratio, 6.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.9-19.6; P = 0.002), and this was independent of other risk factors. Conclusion: The markers used in this study identified a subgroup of early-stage patients at increased risk of relapse post-resection for primary colorectal cancer. This method may be considered as a new diagnostic tool to improve the staging and management of colorectal cancer. © 2006 American Association for Cancer Research.

Estimation on the mortality and disease burden attributed to selected risk factors in Shandong province [山东省主要危险因素的归因死亡和疾病负担分析]

Objective: To determine the major health related risk factors and provide evidence for policy-making,using health burden analysis on selected factors among general population from Shandong province. Methods: Based on data derived from the Third Death of Cause Sampling Survey in Shandong. Years of life lcrat(YLLs),yearS Iived with disability(YLDs)and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs) were calculated according to the GBD ethodology.Deaths and DALYs attributed to the selected risk factors were than estimated together with the PAF data from GBD 2001 study.The indirect method was employed to estimate the YLDs. Results: 51.09%of the total dearlls and 31.83%of the total DALYs from the Shandong population were resulted from the 19 selected risk factors.High blood pre.ure,smoking,low fruit and vegetable intake,aleohol consumption,indoor smoke from solid fuels,high cholesterol,urban air pollution, physical inactivity,overweight and obesity and unsafe injections in health care settings were identified as the top 10 risk faetors for mortality which together caused 50.21%of the total deaths.Alcohol use,smoking,high blood pressure,Low fruit and vegetable intake, indoor smoke from solid fuels, overweight and obesity,high cholesterol, physical inactivity,urban air pollution and iron-deficiency anemia were proved as the top 10 risk factors related to disease burden and were responsible for 29.04%of the total DALYs. Conclusion: Alcohol use.smoking and high blood pressure were determined as the major risk factors which influencing the health of residents in Shandong. The mortality and burden of disease could be reduced significantly if these major factors were effectively under control.

On the relationships between self-reported bicycling injuries and perceived risk among cyclists in Queensland, Australia

The focus of governments on increasing active travel has motivated renewed interest in cycling safety. Bicyclists are up to 20 times more likely to be involved in serious injury crashes than drivers so understanding the relationship among factors in bicyclist crash risk is critically important for identifying effective policy tools, for informing bicycle infrastructure investments, and for identifying high risk bicycling contexts. This study aims to better understand the complex relationships between bicyclist self reported injuries resulting from crashes (e.g. hitting a car) and non-crashes (e.g. spraining an ankle) and perceived risk of cycling as a function of cyclist exposure, rider conspicuity, riding environment, rider risk aversion, and rider ability. Self reported data from 2,500 Queensland cyclists are used to estimate a series of seemingly unrelated regressions to examine the relationships among factors. The major findings suggest that perceived risk does not appear to influence injury rates, nor do injury rates influence perceived risks of cycling. Riders who perceive cycling as risky tend not to be commuters, do not engage in group riding, tend to always wear mandatory helmets and front lights, and lower their perception of risk by increasing days per week of riding and by increasing riding proportion on bicycle paths. Riders who always wear helmets have lower crash injury risk. Increasing the number of days per week riding tends to decrease both crash injury and non crash injury risk (e.g. a sprain). Further work is needed to replicate some of the findings in this study.

Why perform pro-social behaviours? Understanding the key sources of perceived value in preventative health services

In maintaining quality of life, preventative health is an important area in which the performance of pro-social behaviours provides benefits to individuals who perform them as well as society. The establishment of the Preventative Health Taskforce in Australia demonstrates the significance of preventative health and aims to provide governments and health providers with evidence-based advice on preventative health issues (Preventative Health Taskforce, 2009). As preventative health behaviours are voluntary, for consumers to sustain this behaviour there needs to be a value proposition (Dann, 2008; Kotler and Lee, 2008). Customer value has been shown to influence repeat behaviour (McDougall and Levesque, 2000), word-of-mouth (Hartline and Jones, 1999), and attitudes (Dick and Basu, 2008). However to date there is little research that investigates the source of value for preventative health services. This qualitative study explores and identifies three categories of sources that influence four dimensions of value – functional, emotional, social and altruistic (Holbrook 2006). A conceptual model containing five propositions outlining these relationships is presented. This study provides evidence-based research that reveals sources of value that influence individuals’ decisions to perform pro-social behaviours in the long-term through their use of preventative health services. This research uses BreastScreen Queensland (BSQ), a cancer screening service, as the service context.

Understanding IT business value creation and evaluation in least developed economies

Information Technology (IT) is an important resource that can facilitate growth and development in both the developed and developing economies. The forces of globalisation increase the digital divide between the developed and developing economies is increasing. The least developed economies (LDEs) are the most vulnerable within this environment. Intense competition for IT resources means that LDEs need a deeper understanding of how to source and evaluate their IT-related efforts. This effort puts LDEs in a better position to source funding from various stakeholders and promote localized investment in IT. This study presents a complementary approach to securing better IT-related business value in organizations in the LDEs. It further evaluates how IT and the complementaries need to managed within the LDEs. Analysis of data collected from five LDEs show that organizations that invest in IT and related complementaries are able to better their business processes. The data also suggest that improved business processes lead to overall business processes improvements. The above is only possible if organizations adopt IT and make related changes in the complementary resources within the established culture and localizing the required changes.

On IT and business value in developing countries : A complementarities-based approach

Developing economies accommodate more than three quarters of the world's population. This means understanding their growth and well-being is of critical importance. Information technology (IT) is one resource that has had a profound effect in shaping the global economy. IT is also an important resource for driving growth and development in developing economies. Investments in developing economies, however, have focused on the exploitation of labor and natural resources. Unlike in developed economies, focus on IT investment to improve efficiency and effectiveness of business process in developing economies has been sparse, and mechanisms for deriving better IT-related business value is not well understood. This study develops a complementarities-based business value model for developing economies, and tests the relationship between IT investments, IT-related complementarities, and business process performance. It also considers the relationship between business processes performance and firm-level performance. The results suggest that a coordinated investment in IT and IT-related complementarities related favorably to business process performance. Improvements in process-level performance lead to improvements in firm-level performance. The results also suggest that the IT-related complementarities are not only a source of business value on their own, but also enhance the IT resources' ability to contribute to business process performance. This study demonstrates that a coordinated investment approach is required in developing economies. With this approach, their IT resources and IT-related complementaries would help them significantly in improving their business processes, and eventually their firm-level performances.

An exploration of Online Shopping Cart Abandonment Syndrome – a matter of risk and reputation

ABSRACT. Despite the surge in online retail sales in recent years there still remains reluctance by consumers to complete the online shopping process. A number of authors have attributed consumers’ reluctance to purchase online to apparent barriers. However, such barriers as yet have not been fully examined within a theoretical context. This research explores the application of the perceived risk theoretical framework. Specifically, performance risk and the influence of perceived performance risk has on the phenomenon of Internet Abandoned Cart Syndrome (ACS) is evaluated. To explore this phenomenon, a number of extrinsic cues are identified as playing a major role in the performance evaluation process of online purchases. The results of this study suggest the extrinsic cues of brand, reputation, design and price have an overall impact on the performance evaluation process just prior to an online purchase. Varying these cues either positively or negatively had a strong impact on performance evaluation. Further, it was found that positive or negative reputation was heavily associated with shopping cart abandonment.

Information technology and business value in developing economies: a study of intangible benefits of information technology investments in Fiji

Understanding how IT investments contribute to business value is an important issue, and this assists in the efficient use of technology resources in businesses. While there is an agreement that IT contributes to business value, we are unsure of how IT contributes to business value in the wider context, including developing countries. With the view that understanding the interaction between IT resources and the users may provide better insights on the potential of IT investments, this study investigates the businesses’ perception of the intangible benefits of their IT investments. The results indicate that businesses in developing countries perceive that their IT investments provide intangible benefits, especially at the process level, and this contributes to business value.

Assessing the real value in residential property investment

One of the major fall outs from the Global Financial Crisis has been the decline in residential property construction, home lending and residential property prices. This has lead to some extent to a reduction in the number of small investors willing to commit funds to an investment market that is not seen to perform as well as other investment assets, particularly in relation to income return.With a decreasing supply of rental accommodation in the housing markets, less public housing being constructed by both State and Commonwealth Governments, there is the potential for the residential property market to provide more substantial returns than previous years.This paper will analyse the current residential housing market in Brisbane, Australia to determine if there are sectors in this market that are outperforming the average income and total return for residential investment property and the variation in investment performance across the various housing sub-markets. The results show that property investment in residential property provides opportunities to maximize returns based on geographic location and socio-economic economic status, with lower value areas showing the highest income returns and higher value suburbs showing greater capital returns

Neuroprotective effects of low-dose lithium in individuals at ultra-high risk for psychosis. A longitudinal MRI/MRS study

Objectives: To investigate if low-dose lithium may counteract the microstructural and metabolic brain changes proposed to occur in individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis. Methods: Hippocampal T2 relaxation time (HT2RT) and proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-MRS) measurements were performed prior to initiation and following three months of treatment in 11 UHR patients receiving low-dose lithium and 10 UHR patients receiving treatment as usual (TAU). HT2RT and 1H-MRS percentage change scores between scans were compared using one-way ANOVA and correlated with behavioural change scores. Results: Low-dose lithium significantly reduced HT2RT compared to TAU (p=0.018). No significant group by time effects were seen for any brain metabolites as measured with 1H-MRS, although myo-inositol, creatine, choline-containing compounds and NAA increased in the group receiving low-dose lithium and decreased or remained unchanged in subjects receiving TAU. Conclusions: This pilot study suggests that low-dose lithium may protect the microstructure of the hippocampus in UHR states as reflected by significantly decreasing HT2RT. Larger scale replication studies in UHR states using T2 relaxation time as a proxy for emerging brain pathology seem a feasible mean to test neuroprotective strategies such as low-dose lithium as potential treatments to delay or even prevent the progression to full-blown disorder.

Risk and school science education

In this paper I consider a role for risk understanding in school science education. Grounds for this are described in terms of current sociological analyses of the contemporary world as a ‘risk society’ and recent public understanding of science studies where science and risk are concerns commonly linked within the wider community. These concerns connect with support amongst many science educators for the goal of science education for citizenship. From this perspective scientific literacy for decision making on contemporary socioscientific issues is central. I argue that in such decision making risk understanding has an important role to play. I examine some of the challenges its inclusion in school science presents to science teachers, review previous writing about risk in the science education literature and consider how knowledge about risk might be addressed in school science. I also outline the varying conceptions of risk and suggest some future research directions which would support the inclusion of risk in classroom discussions of socioscientific issues.

Project-based organization as adaptation to risk and opportunity in small firms

Recent years have seen a rapid increase in SMEs working collaboratively in inter-organizational projects. But what drives the emergence of such projects, and what types of industries breed them the most? To address these questions, this paper extends the long running literature on the firm and industry antecedents of new venturing and alliance formation to the domain of project-based organization by SMEs. Based on survey data collected among 1,725 small and medium sized organizations and longitudinal industry data, we find an overall pattern that indicates that IOPV participation is primarily determined by a focal SME’s scope of innovative activities, and the munificence, dynamism and complexity of its environment. Unexpectedly, these variables have different effects on whether SMEs are likely to engage in IOPVs, compared to with how many there are in their portfolio at a time. Implications for theory development are discussed.

The power of historical causal components involved in engaging at risk youth at three alternative schools

This article addresses the causal powers associated with the social phenomena of alternative schooling for youth at risk. It stems from a doctoral thesis, Alternative Schooling Programs for At Risk Youth – Three Case Studies which addresses wider issues integral to alternative schooling: youth at risk, alternative schooling models, and literacy. This article explores one aspect of alternative schooling: the historical causal factors involved in the establishment and continuance of three alternative case study models in Queensland, Australia. By adhering to Bhaskar’s transformational model of social activity (TMSA) , social structures and individuals will be analytically distinguished to uncover their separate causal powers and how these have effected the establishment and continuance of three alternative schools.