Reviews pages: Extreme weather events caused by climate change

Starting from the relationship between urban planning and mobility management, TeMA has gradually expanded the view of the covered topics, always remaining in the groove of rigorous scientific in-depth analysis. During the last two years a particular attention has been paid on the Smart Cities theme and on the different meanings that come with it. The last section of the journal is formed by the Review Pages. They have different aims: to inform on the problems, trends and evolutionary processes; to investigate on the paths by highlighting the advanced relationships among apparently distant disciplinary fields; to explore the interaction’s areas, experiences and potential applications; to underline interactions, disciplinary developments but also, if present, defeats and setbacks. Inside the journal the Review Pages have the task of stimulating as much as possible the circulation of ideas and the discovery of new points of view. For this reason the section is founded on a series of basic’s references, required for the identification of new and more advanced interactions. These references are the research, the planning acts, the actions and the applications, analysed and investigated both for their ability to give a systematic response to questions concerning the urban and territorial planning, and for their attention to aspects such as the environmental sustainability and the innovation in the practices. For this purpose the Review Pages are formed by five sections (Web Resources; Books; Laws; Urban Practices; News and Events), each of which examines a specific aspect of the broader information storage of interest for TeMA.

Economic Development of Urban Areas

In this dissertation I study the development of urban areas. At the aggregate level I investigate how they may be affected by climate change policies and by being designated the seat of governmental power. At the household level I study with coauthors how microfinance could improve the health of urban residents. In Chapter 1, I investigate how local employment may be affected by electricity price increases, which is a likely consequence of climate change policies. I outline how previous studies that find large, negative effects may be biased. To overcome these biases I develop a novel estimation strategy that blends border-pair regressions with the synthetic control methodology. I show the conditions for consistent estimation. Using this estimator, I find no effect of contemporaneous price changes on employment. Consistent with the longer time-frame for manufacturing decisions, I do find evidence for negative effects from perceived permanent price shocks. These estimates are much smaller than previous research has found. National capital cities are often substantially larger than other cities in their countries. In Chapter 2, I investigate whether there is a causal effect from being a capital by studying the 1960 relocation of the Brazilian capital from Rio de Janeiro to Brasília. Using a synthetic controls strategy I find that losing the capital had no significant effects on Rio de Janeiro in terms of population, employment, or gross domestic product (GDP). I find that Brasília experienced large and significant increases in population, employment, and GDP. I find evidence of large spillovers from the public to the private sector. Chapter 3 investigates how microfinance could increase the uptake of costly health goods. We study the effect of time payments (micro-loans or micro-savings) on willingness-to-pay (WTP) for a water filter among households in the slums of Dhaka, Bangladesh. We find that time payments significantly increase WTP: compared to a lump-sum up-front purchase, median WTP increases 83% with a six-month loan and 115% with a 12-month loan. We find that households are quite patient with respect to consumption of health inputs. We find evidence for the presence of credit and savings constraints.

Urban Retrofit and Resilience: The challenge of Energy Efficiency and Vulnerability

Urban retrofit is becoming increasingly established as one of the most effective solutions to contain the energy consumption of the existing building stock, to reduce vulnerability to natural and man-made risk and generally improve the quality of built space. However, the planning of retrofit interventions at urban scale should take account of the actual feasibility of measures lest they remain only on paper. This contribution supplies an overview of the many issues related to the subject of urban regeneration, proposing a procedure to identify practical interventions to minimize costs and maximize benefits, in terms of energy efficiency, an increase in resilience and improvement in the quality of the building stock. This procedure was applied to a case study of a neighborhood in the city of Naples, a high-density urban area which is particularly vulnerable to volcanic and seismic risk, and to risks due to climate change.

Photochemistry and transport of tropospheric ozone and its precursors in urban and remote environments

Tropospheric ozone (O3) adversely affects human health, reduces crop yields, and contributes to climate forcing. To limit these effects, the processes controlling O3 abundance as well as that of its precursor molecules must be fully characterized. Here, I examine three facets of O3 production, both in heavily polluted and remote environments. First, using in situ observations from the DISCOVER-AQ field campaign in the Baltimore/Washington region, I evaluate the emissions of the O3 precursors CO and NOx (NOx = NO + NO2) in the National Emissions Inventory (NEI). I find that CO/NOx emissions ratios derived from observations are 21% higher than those predicted by the NEI. Comparisons to output from the CMAQ model suggest that CO in the NEI is accurate within 15 ± 11%, while NOx emissions are overestimated by 51-70%, likely due to errors in mobile sources. These results imply that ambient ozone concentrations will respond more efficiently to NOx controls than current models suggest. I then investigate the source of high O3 and low H2O structures in the Tropical Western Pacific (TWP). A combination of in situ observations, satellite data, and models show that the high O3 results from photochemical production in biomass burning plumes from fires in tropical Southeast Asia and Central Africa; the low relative humidity results from large-scale descent in the tropics. Because these structures have frequently been attributed to mid-latitude pollution, biomass burning in the tropics likely contributes more to the radiative forcing of climate than previously believed. Finally, I evaluate the processes controlling formaldehyde (HCHO) in the TWP. Convective transport of near surface HCHO leads to a 33% increase in upper tropospheric HCHO mixing ratios; convection also likely increases upper tropospheric CH3OOH to ~230 pptv, enough to maintain background HCHO at ~75 pptv. The long-range transport of polluted air, with NO four times the convectively controlled background, intensifies the conversion of HO2 to OH, increasing OH by a factor of 1.4. Comparisons between the global chemistry model CAM-Chem and observations show that consistent underestimates of HCHO by CAM-Chem throughout the troposphere result from underestimates in both NO and acetaldehyde.

The impact of indoor air quality and contaminants on respiratory health of older people living in long-term care residences in Porto

Background: persons who are 65 years or older often spend an important part of their lives indoors thus adverse indoor climate might influence their health status. Objective: to evaluate the influence of indoor air quality and contaminants on older people’s respiratory health. Design: cross-sectional study. Setting: 21 long-term care residences (LTC) in the city of Porto, Portugal. Subjects: older people living in LTC with ≥65 years old. Methods: the Portuguese version of BOLD questionnaire was administered by an interviewer to older residents able to participate (n = 143). Indoor air contaminants (IAC) were measured twice, during winter and summer in 135 areas. Mixed effects logistic regression models were used to study the association between the health questionnaire results and the monitored IAC, adjusted for age, smoking habits, gender and number of years living in the LTC. Results: cough (23%) and sputum (12%) were the major respiratory symptoms, and allergic rhinitis (18%) the main selfreported illness. Overall particulate matter up to 2.5 micrometres in size median concentration was above the reference levels both in winter and summer seasons. Peak values of particulate matter up to 10 micrometres in size (PM10), total volatile organic compounds, carbon dioxide, bacteria and fungi exceeded the reference levels. Older people exposed to PM10 above the reference levels demonstrated higher odds of allergic rhinitis (OR = 2.9, 95% CI: 1.1–7.2). Conclusion: high levels of PM10 were associated with 3-fold odds of allergic rhinitis. No association was found between indoor air chemical and biological contaminants and respiratory symptoms.

Non-communicable diseases among children in Ghana: health and social concerns of parent/caregivers.

Background: Globally, there is a progressive rise in the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). This paper examined the health and social concerns of parents/caregivers on in-patient care for children with NCDs in Ghana. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study in three large health facilities in Ghana (the largest in the South, the largest in the North and the largest in the Eastern part of Ghana. Data was collected with a structured questionnaire among 225 caregivers (≥18 years) of 149 children with NCDs in health facilities in the three regions. Data was analyzed with simple descriptive statistics. Results: Most caregivers 169(75.0%) were women, relatively young (median age 35years), mostly married and resided in urban areas. Sickle cell disease was the commonest NCD among the children. All 169(75.0%) caregivers believed children suffer NCDs because of sins of parents/ancestors, 29(12.9%) believed herbalists/spiritualists have insights into treating NCDs and 73(32.6%) have previously used herbs/traditional medicine for child's illness. NCD in children was a burden and caused financial difficulties for families. Most caregivers (>96.0%) indicated NCDs in children should be included in national health insurance benefits package and a comprehensive national NCD policy is needed. Conclusion: Absence of national NCD policy for children is a major challenge. The burden of care rests mainly on the parents/ caregivers. A national strategic intervention on the importance of awareness generation on the causes, risk factors, prevention and treatment of NCDs for families and communities is essential. Government support through national health and social policy initiatives are essential.

Urban hazards : spatial ecology and survivorship of a turtle in an expanding suburban environment

REDUCING TEACHER ATTRITION: THE ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF BUILDING PRINCIPALS IN A LARGE URBAN DISTRICT TO SUPPORT TEACHER RETENTION

The high rate of teacher attrition in urban schools is well documented. While this does not seem like a problem in Carter County, this equates to hundreds of teachers that need to be replaced annually. Since school year (SY) 2007-08, Carter County has lost over 7,100 teachers, approximately half of (50.1%) of whom resigned, often going to neighboring, higher-paying jurisdictions as suggested by exit survey data (SY2016-2020 Strategic Plan). Included in this study is a range of practices principals use to retain teachers. While the role of the principal is recognized as a critical element in teacher retention, few studies explore the specific practices principals implement to retain teachers and how they use their time to accomplish this task. Through interviews, observations, document analysis and reflective notes, the study identifies the practices four elementary school principals of high and relatively low attrition schools use to support teacher retention. In doing so, the study uses a qualitative cross-case analysis approach. The researcher examined the following leadership practices of the principal and their impact on teacher retention: (a) providing leadership, (b) supporting new teachers, (c) training and mentoring teaching staff, (d) creating opportunities for collaboration, (d) creating a positive school climate, and (e) promoting teacher autonomy. The following research questions served as a foundational guide for the development and implementation of this study: 1. How do principals prioritize addressing teacher attrition or retention relative to all of their other responsibilities? How do they allocate their time to this challenge? 2. What do principals in schools with low attrition rates do to promote retention that principals in high attrition schools do not? What specific practices or interventions are principals in these two types of schools utilizing to retain teachers? Is there evidence to support their use of the practices? The findings that emerge from the data revealed the various practices principals use to influence and support teachers do not differ between the four schools.

A Plan for Salisbury, MD: Urban Design Transformations in Response to Sea Level Rise

This thesis proposes a master plan for Salisbury, MD that presents solutions to the challenges faced by small towns along tidal waterways. Salisbury’s challenges include flooding and sea level rise, poorly defined arteries framing downtown and disconnecting neighborhoods, and a lack of vibrant, mixed use development. These issues are common to small towns and present opportunities for transformative design.

The Economics of Climate Adaptation on America’s Coasts: A Washington Conversation

Report of a colloquium on the economics of coastal climate change adaptation held in Washington D.C. on April 16, 2015. The event was sponsored by The Center for Blue Economy of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey and the Urban Coast Institute of Monmouth University. Participants included Michael Conathan, Center for American Progress; Frank Nutter, Reinsurance Association of America; Dr. Robert Kopp, Rutgers University; Josh Sawislak, Council on Environmental Quality; Tony MacDonald, Urban Coast Institute; Jason Scorse and Charles Colgan, Center for the Blue Economy

Climate Adaptation Finance Mechanisms: New Frontiers For Familiar Tools

Demands for mechanisms to pay for adaptation to climate risks have multiplied rapidly as concern has shifted from greenhouse gas mitigation alone to also coping with the now-inevitable impacts. A number of viable approaches to how to pay for those adjustments to roads, drainage systems, lifeline utilities and other basic infrastructure are emerging, though untested at the scale required across the nation, which already has a trillion-dollar deferred maintenance and replacement problem. There are growing efforts to find new ways to harness private financial resources via new market arrangements to meet needs that clearly outstrip public resources alone, as well as to utilize and combine public resources more effectively. To date, mechanisms are often seen through a specific lens of scale, time, and method, for example national versus local and public versus market-based means. The purpose here is to integrate a number of those perspectives and also to highlight the following in particular. Current experience with seemingly more pedestrian needs like stormwater management funding is in fact a learning step towards new approaches for broader adaptation needs, using re-purposed but existing fiscal tools. The resources raised from new large-scale market approaches for using catastrophe- and resiliency-bond-derived funds will have their use embodied and operationalized in many separate local and state projects. The invention and packaging of innovative projects—the pre-development phase—will be pivotal to better using fiscal resources of many types. Those efforts can be greatly aided or hindered by larger national and especially state government policy, regulatory and capital market arrangements. Understanding the path to integration of effort across these scales deserves much more attention. Examples are given of how federal, state and local roles are each dimensions of that frontier, how existing tools can apply in new ways and how smart project creation plays a role.

Assessment of resting energy expenditure in pediatric mitochondrial diseases with indirect calorimetry

Mitochondrial diseases (MD) are the most frequent inborn errors of metabolism. In affected tissues, MD can alter cellular oxygen consumption rate leading to potential decreases in whole-body resting energy expenditure (REE), but data on pediatric children are absent. We determined, using indirect calorimetry (IC), whole-body oxygen consumption (VO2), carbon dioxide production (VCO2), respiratory quotient (RQ) and REE in pediatric patients with MD and healthy controls. Another goal was to assess the accuracy of available predictive equations for REE estimation in this patient population. IC data were obtained under fasting and resting conditions in 20 MD patients and 27 age and gender-matched healthy peers. We determined the agreement between REE measured with IC and REE estimated with Schofield weight and FAO/WHO/UNU equations. Mean values of VO2, VCO2 (mL·min-1·kg-1) or RQ did not differ significantly between patients and controls (P = 0.085, P = 0.055 and P = 0.626 respectively). Accordingly, no significant differences (P = 0.086) were found for REE (kcal·day-1 kg-1) either. On the other hand, although we found no significant differences between IC-measured REE and Schofield or FAO/WHO/UNU-estimated REE, Bland-Altman analysis revealed wide limits of agreement and there were some important individual differences between IC and equation-derived REE. VO2, VCO2, RQ and REE are not significantly altered in pediatric patients with MD compared with healthy controls. The energy demands of pediatric patients with MD should be determined based on IC data in order to provide the best possible personalized nutritional management for these children.

Applying Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator and Akaike Information Criterion Analysis to Find the Best Multiple Linear Regression Models between Climate Indices and Components of Cow’s Milk

This study focuses on multiple linear regression models relating six climate indices (temperature humidity THI, environmental stress ESI, equivalent temperature index ETI, heat load HLI, modified HLI (HLI new), and respiratory rate predictor RRP) with three main components of cow’s milk (yield, fat, and protein) for cows in Iran. The least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) techniques are applied to select the best model for milk predictands with the smallest number of climate predictors. Uncertainty estimation is employed by applying bootstrapping through resampling. Cross validation is used to avoid over-fitting. Climatic parameters are calculated from the NASA-MERRA global atmospheric reanalysis. Milk data for the months from April to September, 2002 to 2010 are used. The best linear regression models are found in spring between milk yield as the predictand and THI, ESI, ETI, HLI, and RRP as predictors with p-value < 0.001 and R2 (0.50, 0.49) respectively. In summer, milk yield with independent variables of THI, ETI, and ESI show the highest relation (p-value < 0.001) with R2 (0.69). For fat and protein the results are only marginal. This method is suggested for the impact studies of climate variability/change on agriculture and food science fields when short-time series or data with large uncertainty are available.

The Effect of Climate Variability on Main Components of Cow Milk in Iran

The main purpose of this study is to assess the relationship between six bioclimatic indices for cattle (temperature humidity (THI), environmental stress (ESI), equivalent temperature (ESI), heat load (HLI), modified heat load (HLInew) and respiratory rate predictor(RRP)) and fundamental milk components (fat, protein, and milk yield) considering uncertainty. The climate parameters used to calculate the climate indices were taken from the NASA-Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA) reanalysis from 2002 to 2010. Cow milk data were considered for the same period from April to September when cows use natural pasture, with possibility for cows to choose to stay in the barn or to graze on the pasture in the pasturing system. The study is based on a linear regression analysis using correlations as a summarizing diagnostic. Bootstrapping is used to represent uncertainty estimation through resampling in the confidence intervals. To find the relationships between climate indices (THI, ETI, HLI, HLInew, ESI and RRP) and main components of cow milk (fat, protein and yield), multiple liner regression is applied. The least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) techniques are applied to select the best model for milk predictands with the smallest number of climate predictors. Cross validation is used to avoid over-fitting. Based on results of investigation the effect of heat stress indices on milk compounds separately, we suggest the use of ESI and RRP in the summer and ESI in the spring. THI and HLInew are suggested for fat content and HLInew also is suggested for protein content in the spring season. The best linear models are found in spring between milk yield as predictands and THI, ESI,HLI, ETI and RRP as predictors with p-value < 0.001 and R2 0.50, 0.49. In summer, milk yield with independent variables of THI, ETI and ESI show the highest relation (p-value < 0.001) with R2 (0.69). For fat and protein the results are only marginal. It is strongly suggested that new and significant indices are needed to control critical heat stress conditions that consider more predictors of the effect of climate variability on animal products, such as sunshine duration, quality of pasture, the number of days of stress (NDS), the color of skin with attention to large black spots, and categorical predictors such as breed, welfare facility, and management system. This methodology is suggested for studies investigating the impacts of climate variability/change on food quality/security, animal science and agriculture using short term data considering uncertainty or data collection is expensive, difficult, or data with gaps.

Greening the city: an ecosystem-based framework to support planning towards urban sustainability and resilience

Cities are small-scale complex socio-ecological systems, that host around 60% of world population. Ecosystem Services (ES) provided by urban ecosystems offer multiple benefits necessary to cope with present and future urban challenges. These ES include microclimate regulation, runoff control, as well as opportunities for mental and physical recreation, affecting citizen’s health and wellbeing. Creating a balance between urban development, land take containment, climate adaptation and availability of Urban Green Areas and their related benefits, can improve the quality of the lives of the inhabitants, the economic performance of the city and the social justice and cohesion aspects. This work starts analysing current literature around the topic of Ecosystem Services (ES), Green and Blue Infrastructure (GBI) and Nature-based Solutions (NBS) and their integration within current European and International sustainability policies. Then, the thesis focuses on the role of ES, GBI and NBS towards urban sustainability and resilience setting the basis to build the core methodological and conceptual approach of this work. The developed ES-based conceptual approach provides guidance on how to map and assess ES, to better inform policy making and to give the proper value to ES within urban context. The proposed interdisciplinary approach navigates the topic of mapping and assessing ES benefits in terms of regulatory services, with a focus on climate mitigation and adaptation, and cultural services, to enhance wellbeing and justice in urban areas. Last, this thesis proposes a trans-disciplinary and participatory approach to build resilience over time around all relevant urban ES. The two case studies that will be presented in this dissertation, the city of Bologna and the city of Barcelona, have been used to implement, tailor and test the proposed conceptual framework, raising valuable inputs for planning, policies and science.