Predicting market movement with Artificial Neural Networks

This paper presents an application of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to the prediction of stock market direction in the US. Using a multilayer perceptron neural network and a backpropagation algorithm for the training process, the model aims at learning the hidden patterns in the daily movement of the S&P500 to correctly identify if the market will be in a Trend Following or Mean Reversion behavior. The ANN is able to produce a successful investment strategy which outperforms the buy and hold strategy, but presents instability in its overall results which compromises its practical application in real life investment decisions.

An analysis of associations between human resources practices, affective commitment, exhaustion and cynicism of temportary workers

This research examines the relationships between Human Resources Practices (HRP) and affective commitment, exhaustion, and cynicism of temporary workers. Furthermore, voluntariness and tenure with the client organization are assumed in the analysis as moderators. A sample of Temporary Agency workers was surveyed. It was assumed that HRP positively relates with affective commitment, while negatively with exhaustion and cynicism. Results confirmed the proposed relationships. Regarding the moderators, it has been proved that voluntariness partially weakens the relationships between HRP and temporary workers’ outcomes. However, contrary to the hypothesis, this effect cannot be affirmed also for the tenure with the client organization. Previous literature as well as implications of the findings are discussed.

What creates resilience among the unemployed? Evidence in Portugal

Resilience is the intrinsic capacity which allows individuals to adapt to adverse situations. Among unemployed, resilience obtains a particular importance as a must-required skill to face unemployment and make it possible to return to the labour market. The present work aims at discover which social and individual aspects are most responsible to increase resilience levels among the unemployed. In order to find those aspects, a questionnaire was applied to a sample of Portuguese unemployed. The results were then analysed and interpreted, and some of the possible solutions able to increase resilience levels among the Portuguese unemployed were listed and justified.

Associations of short-term particle and noise exposures with markers of cardiovascular and respiratory health among highway maintenance workers

BACKGROUND: Highway maintenance workers are constantly and simultaneously exposed to traffic-related particle and noise emissions, and both have been linked to increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in population-based epidemiology studies. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to investigate short-term health effects related to particle and noise exposure. METHODS: We monitored 18 maintenance workers, during as many as five 24-hour periods from a total of 50 observation days. We measured their exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), ultrafine particles, noise, and the cardiopulmonary health endpoints: blood pressure, pro-inflammatory and pro-thrombotic markers in the blood, lung function and fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) measured approximately 15 hours post-work. Heart rate variability was assessed during a sleep period approximately 10 hours post-work. RESULTS: PM2.5 exposure was significantly associated with C-reactive protein and serum amyloid A, and negatively associated with tumor necrosis factor α. None of the particle metrics were significantly associated with von Willebrand factor or tissue factor expression. PM2.5 and work noise were associated with markers of increased heart rate variability, and with increased HF and LF power. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure on the following morning were significantly associated with noise exposure after work, and non-significantly associated with PM2.5. We observed no significant associations between any of the exposures and lung function or FeNO. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that exposure to particles and noise during highway maintenance work might pose a cardiovascular health risk. Actions to reduce these exposures could lead to better health for this population of workers.

Social chromosome variants differentially affect queen determination and the survival of workers in the fire ant Solenopsis invicta.

Intraspecific variation in social organization is common, yet the underlying causes are rarely known. An exception is the fire ant Solenopsis invicta in which the existence of two distinct forms of social colony organization is under the control of the two variants of a pair of social chromosomes, SB and Sb. Colonies containing exclusively SB/SB workers accept only one single queen and she must be SB/SB. By contrast, when colonies contain more than 10% of SB/Sb workers, they accept several queens but only SB/Sb queens. The variants of the social chromosome are associated with several additional important phenotypic differences, including the size, fecundity and dispersal strategies of queens, aggressiveness of workers, and sperm count in males. However, little is known about whether social chromosome variants affect fitness in other life stages. Here, we perform experiments to determine whether differential selection occurs during development and in adult workers. We find evidence that the Sb variant of the social chromosome increases the likelihood of female brood to develop into queens and that adult SB/Sb workers, the workers that cull SB/SB queens, are overrepresented in comparison to SB/SB workers. This demonstrates that supergenes such as the social chromosome can have complex effects on phenotypes at various stages of development.

A cross-sectional survey of attitudes to HIV risk and rapid HIV testing among clients of sex workers in Switzerland.

OBJECTIVES: To assess attitudes to HIV risk and acceptability of rapid HIV testing among clients of street-based female sex workers (FSW) in Lausanne, Switzerland, where HIV prevalence in the general population is 0.4%. METHODS: The authors conducted a cross-sectional study in the red light district of Lausanne for five nights in September of 2008, 2009 and 2010. Clients of FSW were invited to complete a questionnaire in the street assessing demographic characteristics, attitudes to HIV risk and HIV testing history. All clients interviewed were then offered anonymous finger stick rapid HIV testing in a van parked on-site. RESULTS: The authors interviewed 112, 127 and 79 clients in 2008, 2009 and 2010, respectively. All were men, average age 32-37 years old; 40-60% were in a stable relationship. History of unprotected sex was higher with non-commercial partners (33-50%) than with FSW (6-11%); 29-46% of clients had never undergone an HIV test. Anonymous rapid HIV testing was accepted by 45-50% of clients. Out of 109 HIV tests conducted during the three study periods, none was reactive. CONCLUSIONS: On-site HIV counselling and testing is acceptable among clients of FSW in this urban setting. These individuals represent an unquantified population, a proportion of which has an incomplete understanding of HIV risk in the face of high-risk behaviour, with implications for potential onward transmission to non-commercial sexual partners.

Covariation between colony social structure and immune defences of workers in the ant Formica selysi

Several ant species vary in the number of queens per colony, yet the causes and consequences of this variation remain poorly understood. In previous experiments, we found that Formica selysi workers originating from multiple-queen (=polygyne) colonies had a lower resistance to a fungal pathogen than workers originating from single-queen (=monogyne) colonies. In contrast, group diversity improved disease resistance in experimental colonies. This discrepancy between field and experimental colonies suggested that variation in social structure in the field had antagonistic effects on worker resistance, possibly through a down-regulation of the immune system balancing the positive effect of genetic diversity. Here, we examined if workers originating from field colonies with alternative social structure differed in three major components of their immune system. We found that workers from polygyne colonies had a lower bacterial growth inhibitory activity than workers from monogyne colonies. In contrast, workers from the two types of colonies did not differ significantly in bacterial cell wall lytic activity and prophenoloxidase activity. Overall, the presence of multiple queens in a colony correlated with a slight reduction in one inducible component of the immune system of individual workers. This reduced level of immune defence might explain the lower resistance of workers originating from polygyne colonies despite the positive effect of genetic diversity. More generally, these results indicate that social changes at the group level can modulate individual immune defences.

Evaluation of exposure biomarkers in offshore workers exposed to low benzene and toluene concentrations.

Characterize ethylbenzene and xylene air concentrations, and explore the biological exposure markers (urinary t,t-muconic acid (t,t-MA) and unmetabolized toluene) among petroleum workers offshore. Offshore workers have increased health risks due to simultaneous exposures to several hydrocarbons present in crude oil. We discuss the pooled benzene exposure results from our previous and current studies and possible co-exposure interactions. BTEX air concentrations were measured during three consecutive 12-h work shifts among 10 tank workers, 15 process operators, and 18 controls. Biological samples were collected pre-shift on the first day of study and post-shift on the third day of the study. The geometric mean exposure over the three work shifts were 0.02 ppm benzene, 0.05 ppm toluene, 0.03 ppm ethylbenzene, and 0.06 ppm xylene. Benzene in air was significantly correlated with unmetabolized benzene in blood (r = 0.69, p < 0.001) and urine (r = 0.64, p < 0.001), but not with urinary t,t-MA (r = 0.27, p = 0.20). Toluene in air was highly correlated with the internal dose of toluene in both blood (r = 0.70, p < 0.001) and urine (r = 0.73, p < 0.001). Co-exposures were present; however, an interaction of metabolism was not likely at these low benzene and toluene exposures. Urinary benzene, but not t,t-MA, was a reliable biomarker for benzene at low exposure levels. Urinary toluene was a useful biomarker for toluene exposure. Xylene and ethylbenzene air levels were low. Dermal exposure assessment needs to be performed in future studies among these workers.

Mortality among 24,865 workers exposed to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in three electrical capacitor manufacturing plants: a ten-year update.

The objective of this analysis was to evaluate mortality among a cohort of 24,865 capacitor-manufacturing workers exposed to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) at plants in Indiana, Massachusetts, and New York and followed for mortality through 2008. Cumulative PCB exposure was estimated using plant-specific job-exposure matrices. External comparisons to US and state-specific populations used standardized mortality ratios, adjusted for gender, race, age and calendar year. Among long-term workers employed 3 months or longer, within-cohort comparisons used standardized rate ratios and multivariable Poisson regression modeling. Through 2008, more than one million person-years at risk and 8749 deaths were accrued. Among long-term employees, all-cause and all-cancer mortality were not elevated; of the a priori outcomes assessed only melanoma mortality was elevated. Mortality was elevated for some outcomes of a priori interest among subgroups of long-term workers: all cancer, intestinal cancer and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (women); melanoma (men); melanoma and brain and nervous system cancer (Indiana plant); and melanoma and multiple myeloma (New York plant). Standardized rates of stomach and uterine cancer and multiple myeloma mortality increased with estimated cumulative PCB exposure. Poisson regression modeling showed significant associations with estimated cumulative PCB exposure for prostate and stomach cancer mortality. For other outcomes of a priori interest--rectal, liver, ovarian, breast, and thyroid cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, Alzheimer disease, and Parkinson disease--neither elevated mortality nor positive associations with PCB exposure were observed. Associations between estimated cumulative PCB exposure and stomach, uterine, and prostate cancer and myeloma mortality confirmed our previous positive findings.

Mr [James] O'Grady arrivant à Caxton Hall [membre du Parlement anglais et secrétaire de la National Federation of General Workers] : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 56233

Production under glass : working conditions and class-consciousness of the Niagara greenhouse workers

This study applies a Marxist theoretical paradigm to examine the working conditions of greenhouse workers in the Niagara Region, and the range of factors that bear upon the formation of their class-consciousness. The Niagara greenhouse industry represents one of the most developed horticultural regions in Canada and plays a prominent role in the local economy. The industry generates substantial revenues and employs a significant number of people, yet the greenhouse workers are paid one of the lowest rates in the region. Being classified as agricultural workers, the greenhouse employees are exempted from many provisions of federal and provincial labour regulations. Under the current provincial statutes, agricultural workers in Ontario are denied the right to organize and bargain collectively. Except for a few technical and managerial positions, the greenhouse industry employs mostly low-skilled workers who are subjected to poor working conditions that stem from the employer's attempts to adapt to larger structural imperatives of the capitalist economy. While subjected to these poor working conditions, the greenhouse workers are also affected by objectively alienated social relations and by ruling class ideological domination and hegemony. These two sets of factors arise from the inherent conflict of interests between wage-labour and capital but also militate against the development of class-consciousness. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 12 greenhouse workers to examine the role played by their material circumstances in the formulation of their social and political views as well as the extent to which they are aware of their class location and class interests. The hegemonic notions of 'common sense' acted as impediments to formation of classconsciousness. The greenhouse workers have virtually no opportunities to access alternative perspectives that would address the issues associated with exploitation in production and offer solutions leading to 'social justice'. Fonnidable challenges confront any organized political body seeking to improve the conditions of the working people.

3D movement and muscle activity patterns in a violin bowing task

Objective: Overuse injuries in violinists are a problem that has been primarily analyzed through the use of questionnaires. Simultaneous 3D motion analysis and EMG to measure muscle activity has been suggested as a quantitative technique to explore this problem by identifying movement patterns and muscular demands which may predispose violinists to overuse injuries. This multi-disciplinary analysis technique has, so far, had limited use in the music world. The purpose of this study was to use it to characterize the demands of a violin bowing task. Subjects: Twelve injury-free violinists volunteered for the study. The subjects were assigned to a novice or expert group based on playing experience, as determined by questionnaire. Design and Settings: Muscle activity and movement patterns were assessed while violinists played five bowing cycles (one bowing cycle = one down-bow + one up-bow) on each string (G, D, A, E), at a pulse of 4 beats per bow and 100 beats per minute. Measurements: An upper extremity model created using coordinate data from markers placed on the right acromion process, lateral epicondyle of the humerus and ulnar styloid was used to determine minimum and maximum joint angles, ranges of motion (ROM) and angular velocities at the shoulder and elbow of the bowing arm. Muscle activity in right anterior deltoid, biceps brachii and triceps brachii was assessed during maximal voluntary contractions (MVC) and during the playing task. Data were analysed for significant differences across the strings and between experience groups. Results: Elbow flexion/extension ROM was similar across strings for both groups. Shoulder flexion/extension ROM increaslarger for the experts. Angular velocity changes mirrored changes in ROM. Deltoid was the most active of the muscles assessed (20% MVC) and displayed a pattern of constant activation to maintain shoulder abduction. Biceps and triceps were less active (4 - 12% MVC) and showed a more periodic 'on and off pattern. Novices' muscle activity was higher in all cases. Experts' muscle activity showed a consistent pattern across strings, whereas the novices were more irregular. The agonist-antagonist roles of biceps and triceps during the bowing motion were clearly defined in the expert group, but not as apparent in the novice group. Conclusions: Bowing movement appears to be controlled by the shoulder rather than the elbow as shoulder ROM changed across strings while elbow ROM remained the same. Shoulder injuries are probably due to repetition as the muscle activity required for the movement is small. Experts require a smaller amount of muscle activity to perform the movement, possibly due to more efficient muscle activation patterns as a result of practice. This quantitative multidisciplinary approach to analysing violinists' movements can contribute to fuller understanding of both playing demands and injury mechanisms .

Preliminary epidemiological study of latent tuberculosis in Mexican agricultural workers in the Niagara region, Canada

It is well documented that the majority of Tuberculosis (TB) cases diagnosed in Canada are related to foreign-bom persons from TB high-burden countries. The Canadian seasonal agricultural workers program (SAWP) operating with Mexico allows migrant workers to enter the country with a temporary work permit for up to 8 months. Preiimnigration screening of these workers by both clinical examination and chest X-ray (CXR) reduces the risk of introducing cases of active pulmonary TB to Canada, but screening for latent TB (LTBI) is not routinely done. Studies carried out in industrialized nations with high immigration from TBendemic countries provide data of lifetime LTBI reactivation of around 10% but little is known about reactivation rates within TB-endemic countries where new infections (or reinfections) may be impossible to distinguish from reactivation. Migrant populations like the SAWP workers who spend considerable amounts of time in both Canada and TBendemic rural areas in Mexico are a unique population in terms of TB epidemiology. However, to our knowledge no studies have been undertaken to explore either the existence of LTBI among Mexican workers, the probability of reactivation or the workers' exposure to TB cases while back in their communities before returning the following season. Being aware of their LTBI status may help workers to exercise healthy behaviours to avoid TB reactivation and therefore continue to access the SAWP. In order to assess the prevalence of LTBI and associated risk factors among Mexican migrant workers a preliminary cross sectional study was designed to involve a convenience sample of the Niagara Region's Mexican workers in 2007. Research ethics clearance was granted by Brock University. Individual questionnaires were administered to collect socio-demographic and TB-related epidemiological data as well as TB knowledge and awareness levels. Cellular immunity to M tuberculosis was assessed by both an Interferon-y release assay (lGRA), QuantiFERON -TB Gold In-Tube (QFf™) and by the tuberculin skin test (TSn using Mantoux. A total of 82 Mexican workers (out of 125 invited) completed the study. Most participants were male (80%) and their age ranged from 22 to 65 years (mean 38.5). The prevalence of LTBI was 34% using TST and 18% using QFTTM. As previously reported, TST (using ~lOmm cut-off) showed a sensitivity of 93.3% and a specificity of 79.1 %. These findings at the moment cannot predict the probability of progression to active TB; only longitudinal cohort studies of this population can ascertain this outcome. However, based on recent publications, lORA positive individuals may have up to 14% probability of reactivation within the next two years. Although according to the SA WP guidelines, all workers undergo TB screening before entering or re-entering Canada, CXR examination requirements showed to be inconsistent for this population: whereas 100% of the workers coming to Canada for the first time reported having the procedure done, only 31 % of returning participants reported having had a CXR in the past year. None of the participants reported ever having a CXR compatible with TB which was consistent with the fact that none had ever been diagnosed with active pulmonary TB and with only 3.6% reporting close contact with a person with active TB in their lifetime. Although Mexico reports that 99% of popUlation is fully immunized against TB within the first year of age, only 85.3% of participants reported receiving BOC vaccine in childhood. Conversely, even when TST is not part of the routine TB screening in endemic countries, a suqDrisingly high 25.6% reported receiving a TST in the past. In regards to TB knowledge and awareness, 74% of the studied population had previous knowledge about (active) TB, 42% correctly identified active TB symptomatology, 4.8% identified the correct route of transmission, 4.8% knew about the existence of LTBI, 3.6% knew that latent TB could reactivate and 48% recognized TB as treatable and curable. Of all variables explored as potential risk factors for LTBI, age was the only one which showed statistical significance. Significant associations could not be proven for other known variables (such as sex, TB contact, history of TB) probably because of the small sample size and the homogeneity of the sample. Screening for LTBI by TST (high sensitivity) followed by confirmation with QFT''"'^ (high specificity) suggests to be a good strategy especially for immigrants from TB high-burden countries. After educational sessions, workers positive for LTBI gained greater knowledge about the signs and symptoms of TB reactivation as well as the risk factors commonly associated with reactivation. Additionally, they were more likely to attend their annual health check up and request a CXR exam to monitor for TB reactivation.