Evaluation Of Reservoir Model Integration With Deterministic And Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts

Due to the increase in water demand and hydropower energy, it is getting more important to operate hydraulic structures in an efficient manner while sustaining multiple demands. Especially, companies, governmental agencies, consultant offices require effective, practical integrated tools and decision support frameworks to operate reservoirs, cascades of run-of-river plants and related elements such as canals by merging hydrological and reservoir simulation/optimization models with various numerical weather predictions, radar and satellite data. The model performance is highly related with the streamflow forecast, related uncertainty and its consideration in the decision making. While deterministic weather predictions and its corresponding streamflow forecasts directly restrict the manager to single deterministic trajectories, probabilistic forecasts can be a key solution by including uncertainty in flow forecast scenarios for dam operation. The objective of this study is to compare deterministic and probabilistic streamflow forecasts on an earlier developed basin/reservoir model for short term reservoir management. The study is applied to the Yuvacık Reservoir and its upstream basin which is the main water supply of Kocaeli City located in the northwestern part of Turkey. The reservoir represents a typical example by its limited capacity, downstream channel restrictions and high snowmelt potential. Mesoscale Model 5 and Ensemble Prediction System data are used as a main input and the flow forecasts are done for 2012 year using HEC-HMS. Hydrometeorological rule-based reservoir simulation model is accomplished with HEC-ResSim and integrated with forecasts. Since EPS based hydrological model produce a large number of equal probable scenarios, it will indicate how uncertainty spreads in the future. Thus, it will provide risk ranges in terms of spillway discharges and reservoir level for operator when it is compared with deterministic approach. The framework is fully data driven, applicable, useful to the profession and the knowledge can be transferred to other similar reservoir systems.

Temperature Dynamics Investigation At Small And Shallow Lakes Using Hydrodynamic Model

A three-dimensional time-dependent hydrodynamic and heat transport model of Lake Binaba, a shallow and small dam reservoir in Ghana, emphasizing the simulation of dynamics and thermal structure has been developed. Most numerical studies of temperature dynamics in reservoirs are based on one- or two-dimensional models. These models are not applicable for reservoirs characterized with complex flow pattern and unsteady heat exchange between the atmosphere and water surface. Continuity, momentum and temperature transport equations have been solved. Proper assignment of boundary conditions, especially surface heat fluxes, has been found crucial in simulating the lake’s hydrothermal dynamics. This model is based on the Reynolds Average Navier-Stokes equations, using a Boussinesq approach, with a standard k − ε turbulence closure to solve the flow field. The thermal model includes a heat source term, which takes into account the short wave radiation and also heat convection at the free surface, which is function of air temperatures, wind velocity and stability conditions of atmospheric boundary layer over the water surface. The governing equations of the model have been solved by OpenFOAM; an open source, freely available CFD toolbox. As its core, OpenFOAM has a set of efficient C++ modules that are used to build solvers. It uses collocated, polyhedral numerics that can be applied on unstructured meshes and can be easily extended to run in parallel. A new solver has been developed to solve the hydrothermal model of lake. The simulated temperature was compared against a 15 days field data set. Simulated and measured temperature profiles in the probe locations show reasonable agreement. The model might be able to compute total heat storage of water bodies to estimate evaporation from water surface.

O quadrinho alternativo brasileiro nas décadas de 1980 e 1990

Tendo como inspiração o comix underground norte-americano, os quadrinhos alternativos brasileiros revelaram vários artistas de talento, muitos deles reconhecidos inclusive no exterior, e abordaram criticamente temas relevantes da realidade brasileira. O mercado editorial de Histórias em Quadrinhos no Brasil sempre esteve sujeito às intempéries políticas e econômicas, mas, ao longo das décadas de 1980 e 1990, com o processo de redemocratização e apesar da crise inflacionária, a produção alternativa de histórias em quadrinhos conquistou o público-leitor. Uma das editoras mais expressivas nesse contexto foi a Circo Editorial.

Técnica de programação e controle da construção repetitiva, linha de balanço, estudo de caso de um conjunto habitacional

Este trabalho apresenta uma técnica de programação e controle da construção repetitiva denominada Linha de Balanço. E uma técnica, surgida na indústria fabril, onde a produção em série e em grande escala exige a organização dos métodos de produção e a racionalização do trabalho. O estudo, inicialmente, modela o trabalho de construção de unidades repetitivas, salientando os problemas de organização e administração destes empreendimentos. Num segundo momento, são apresentados os princípios teóricos da técnica com aplicações práticas da programação. Por fim, é analisada a metodologia usual de construção de conjuntos habitacionais através de um estudo de caso e, observadas as condições de aplicação da técnica da Linha de Balanço, não exigindo mudificações muito profundas na atual ação gerencial neste tipo de obra. As conclusões esboçadas confirmam as vantagens da técnica da Linha de Balanço para estes empreendimentos e propõem a sua utilização na organização do trabalho nos canteiros repetitivos.

Doses e parcelamento de nitrogênio em alface

A alface é a hortaliça folhosa mais consumida no mundo. É uma rica fonte de vitaminas e sais minerais que está presente no cardápio diário de grande parte da população brasileira. O nitrogênio é o nutriente mais importante para a produção de alface. O excesso ou falta desse nutriente acarretam queda na produção e problemas de qualidade nutritiva, por excesso de nitrato. A dose recomendada de nitrogênio varia muito entre autores e órgãos oficiais. Uma parte do nitrogênio aplicado ao solo é perdida por lixiviação, contaminando os mananciais de água. Devido a isso é recomendada a sua aplicação em diversas etapas, cujo número também é variável nas recomendações. Este trabalho teve por objetivo determinar qual a dose de nitrogênio e seu modo de aplicação que proporcionam a maior produção, sem comprometer a qualidade da alface do tipo “lisa”, nas condições de clima e solo do município de Eldorado do Sul, região da Grande Porto Alegre, RS. Foram realizados dois estudos, um testando doses crescentes de nitrogênio sob a forma de uréia e o outro testando o parcelamento em diversas épocas do cultivo. Foram avaliados a produção de matéria fresca e seca, os teores de nitrogênio, amônio e nitrato no tecido seco, a extração e a eficiência do uso do fertilizante. Os resultados revelam que a dose de 200 kgha-1 foi a que proporcionou maior rendimento da cultura e que a dose de 400 kgha-1 diminui a produção. A extração de nitrogênio foi da ordem de 35,7 kgha-1 e os teores de nitrogênio, amônio e nitrato foram respectivamente de 2,45%; 651,7 mg.kg-1 e 153,6 mg.kg-1. O teor de nitrato na alface foi muito menor do que o considerado prejudicial a saúde humana. A eficiência do uso do fertilizante foi de 12,06% quando aplicado 200 kgha-1 de N em 3 épocas. A eficiência do uso do adubo foi aumentada em 26,35% com o parcelamento em 4 doses iguais de 50 kg ha-1, aplicadas no plantio e aos 15, 30 e 45 dias após, sem alterar a qualidade visual e nutricional da alface.

Análise estratigráfica do Campo de Namorado (Bacia de Campos) com base na interpretação sísmica tridimensional

O presente trabalho analisa os reservatórios turbidíticos do Campo de Namorado, Bacia de Campos – RJ, com a apresentação de um novo modelo evolutivo para o intervalo entre o Albiano superior e Cenomaniano, na área do referido campo. As ferramentas utilizadas neste estudo consistiram da interpretação sísmica em ambiente tridimensional com o software VoxelGeo®, e da análise faciológica junto à perfilagem de poços do referido campo. A análise desenvolvida permitiu a individualização e a posterior visualização tridimensional de um paleocanal meandrante na base do intervalo estudado, feição esta até então não relatada em interpretações anteriores neste reservatório. Como resultado das análises sísmicas e faciológicas, foi possível elaborar um modelo deposicional, onde foram definidos quatro sistemas turbidíticos distintos, inclusos em duas seqüências de 3ª Ordem. Esses sistemas turbidíticos estariam, portanto, associados às seqüências de 4ª Ordem, que são interpretadas como parasseqüências, inseridas nos dois ciclos de 3ª Ordem. As seqüências de 3ª Ordem, que englobam os reservatórios do Campo de Namorado, representariam intervalos de alta freqüência no registro estratigráfico, dentro do contexto de afogamento (2ª Ordem) da Bacia de Campos. Pelas características da calha deposicional observada para o Campo de Namorado, é possível concluir que o sistema, como um todo, foi depositado em um complexo de canais, junto a sistemas de frentes deltaicas. Esses canais, provavelmente, foram esculpidos por fluxos hiperpicnais, formados a partir de inundações catastróficas. As informações provenientes deste estudo, proporcionaram uma melhor compreensão da gênese dos depósitos turbidíticos, acumuladores de hidrocarbonetos, no intervalo estudado, e cuja ocorrência está relacionada com etapas de rebaixamento relativo do nível do mar.

Potencial de redução na demanda por energia elétrica no Rio de Janeiro através do modelo de preço variável

A energia elétrica é fundamental para o desenvolvimento de qualquer país e o Brasil atravessa atualmente uma crise energética devido ao baixo nível de seus reservatórios, então diversos temas sobre o sistema elétrico brasileiro vêm à tona a fim de dar mais confiabilidade e evitar futuros racionamentos, permitindo assim que a escassez de energia não seja um impeditivo para o crescimento econômico do país. O presente estudo calcula o potencial de redução de demanda por energia elétrica no estado do Rio de Janeiro através do modelo de preço variável, que consiste em ter tarifas distintas para o horário de ponta e fora de ponta. Este é um entre diversos programas de eficiência energética existentes no mundo atualmente. Para tal cálculo as principais premissas são a projeção de demanda máxima coincidente, o número de consumidores por classe e a elasticidade preço da demanda por energia elétrica. A partir dai são sugeridos três cenários de penetração de AMI (Advanced Metering infrastructure), e três cenários de variação de preço, chegando assim a nove resultados possíveis.

Oil price shocks and policy implications the emergence of U.S. tight oil production: a case study

How have shocks to supply and demand affected global oil prices; and what are key policy implications following the resurgence of oil production in the United States? Highlights: − The recent collapse in global oil prices was dominated by oversupply. − The future of tight oil in the United States is vulnerable to obstacles beyond oil prices. − Opinions on tight oil from the Top 25 think tank organizations are considered. Global oil prices have fallen more than fifty percent since mid-2014. While price corrections in the global oil markets resulted from multiple factors over the past twelve months, surging tight oil production from the United States was a key driver. Tight oil is considered an unconventional or transitional oil source due to its location in oil-bearing shale instead of conventional oil reservoirs. These qualities make tight oil production fundamentally different from regular crude, posing unique challenges. This case study examines these challenges and explores how shocks to supply and demand affect global oil prices while identifying important policy considerations. Analysis of existing evidence is supported by expert opinions from more than one hundred scholars from top-tier think tank organizations. Finally, implications for United States tight oil production as well as global ramifications of a new low price environment are explored.

kit educacional para controle e supervisão aplicado a nível

PEREIRA, J. P. ; CASTRO, B. P. S. ; VALENTIM, R. A. M. . Kit Educacional para Controle e Supervisão Aplicado a Nível. Holos, Natal, v. 2, p. 68-72, 2009

Contra as Secas: a engenharia e as origens de um planejamento regional no nordeste brasileiro

Droughts surfaced in 1877 as a crucial problem for the birthing Brazilian nation. Engineers, who formed the country's technical and scientific elite, took it upon themselves to study, understand and fight the problem through planned actions of intervention on space. This work, based on proposals and discussions contained in engineering magazines and reports, aims to provide elements for the comprehension of how these systematized actions against droughts, in the Iate nineteenth and early twentieth century, contributed to spatial analysis and the formation of a (then-inexistent) regional and territorial planning discipline in Brazi!. Engineers, by taking up the position of masterminds in the country's modernization, guaranteed for themselves personal economic stability, social prestige and political power. By understanding nature, either as a resource to be exploited or an adversary to national progress, they contributed to the delimitation of the region now known as the Northeast. By seeking to understand the drought phenomenon, they created knowledge about the space they sought to intervene on; by constructing their projects amid political and economical difficulty, they changed the organizational structures of cities and country in the northeast. The proposals for açudes (Iarge water reservoirs) allowed the fixation of population and the resistance against droughts; the roads - railroads and automotive roadways - connected the sertão to the capitais and the coast, speeding up help to the affected populations during droughts and allowing the circulation of goods so as to strengthen the local economies in normal rimes. The adopted practices and techniques, adapted from foreign experience and developed through trial and improvement, were consolidated as an eminently spatial intervention course, even if a theoretical body of regional or territorial planning wasn't formed in Brazil. Regional Planning proper was first applied in the country in the Northeast itself, in the 1950s, based off an economical view of reality in order to achieve development. The engineer's work prior tothat date, however, cannot be dlsconsldered. It was proved that, despite facing financial and political hurdles, engineers had a profound commitment to the problem and intended to act systematically to transform the economical and social relations in the region, in order to be victorious in their struggle against droughts

Qualidade do ar interior e conforto térmico : um estudo em espaços de estacionamento em Natal/RN

The recent tendency to utilize parking lots for other purposes has demonstrated that more time has been spent by visitors, mainly in great cities. Therefore, this paper investigates the thermal comfort and the air quality indoors in areas specifically used as parking lots by analyzing the direct relation between such environments and vehicular pollution. The thermal comfort and the quality of air indoors in parking lots with different architectonic typology (ground-floor and underground) are also studied, aiming to contribute to the proposition of suitable new areas designated to human usage. Field research was done, in two distinct periods within different weather conditions (January and July) in, two naturally cooled, parking lots located in Natal - RN. The internal environment agents were measured by using tools for air temperature, humidity, speed and direction; interviews with employees and visitors and chemical analysis through appropriate tools to analyze specific material, carbon monoxide and ozone. The results showed that chemical agents densely concentrate mostly in the closed parking space, aggravated by weather conditions, which dissatisfied the visitors. Still, it was shown that architectonic typology, alongside topographical aspects compromise internal environmental conditions, which increases the retention of pollution, leading to dissatisfactory thermal comfort levels and becoming less suitable for usage by visitors considering air and thermal comfort aspects. Consequently, they are not suitable for human stay due to the poor quality of the indoor air

Efeitos da tilápia do Nilo (Oreochromis niloticus) e do enriquecimento por nutrientes sobre a comunidade planctônica em um lago artificial no semi-árido brasileiro

The major aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that the introduction of the Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) and the enrichment with nutrients (N and P) interact synergistically to change the structure of plankton communities, increase phytoplankton biomass and decrease water transparency of a semi-arid tropical reservoir. One field experiment was performed during five weeks in twenty enclosures (8m3) to where four treatments were randomly allocated: with tilapia addition (T), with nutrients addition (NP), with tilapia and nutrients addition (T+NP) and a control treatment with no tilapia or nutrients addition (C). A two-way repeated measures ANOVA was done to test for time (t), tilapia (T) and nutrient (NP) effects and their interaction on water transparency, total phosphorus, total nitrogen, phytoplankton and zooplankton. The results show that there was no effect of nutrient addition on these variables but significant fish effects on the biomass of total zooplankton, nauplii, rotifers, cladocerans and calanoid copepods, on the biovolume of Bacillariophyta, Zygnemaphyceae and large algae (GALD ≥ 50 μm) and on Secchi depth. In addition, we found significant interaction effects between tilapia and nutrients on Secchi depth and rotifers. Overall, tilapia decreased the biomass of most zooplankton taxa and large algae (diatoms) and decreased the water transparency while nutrient enrichment increased the biomass of zooplankton (rotifers) but only in the absence of tilapia. In conclusion, the influence of fish on the reservoir plankton community and water transparency was greater than that of nutrient loading. This finding suggests that biomanipulation should be a greater priority in the restoration of eutrophic reservoirs in tropical semi-arid regions

Eutrofização e capacidade de carga de fósforo de seis reservatórios a bacia do Rio Seridó, região semi-árida do Estado do RN

The eutrofization is a natural process of accumulation of nutrients in aquatic´s body that it has been accelerated for the human´s actives, mainly the related with the activities of camp, industrial and the inadequate disposition of the domestic sewage. The enrichment of the aquatic´s body with nutrients, mainly the nitrogen and the phosphorus, and the consequent proliferation of algae and Cyanobacteria can commit the quality of the water for the public provisioning, for the fish farming and for other ends. The problem becomes more critical when there is a shortage of water naturally as in the semi-arid area of the Brazilian northeast. Before that problem this work had as objective evaluates the trophic state of six reservoirs of the basin of River Seridó of Rio Grande of Norte and also estimate the capacity of load of match of the reservoir and risk probabilities based on the established limits by the resolution Conama 357/05. The results demonstrate that the six reservoirs are eutrofization, with concentration of total phosphorus and cloro a in the water upster to 50 e 12 μg l-1. The results show that space homogeneity exists in the state trophic of the reservoirs, but a significant variation interanual in function of the increase of the concentrations of nutrients and decrease of the transparency of the water with the reduction of the body of water accumulated in the reservoirs.The results of the simulation risk estocastic show that the reservoirs could receive annually from 72 to 216 Kg of P, assuming a risk of 10% of increasing in more than 30 μg l-1 the annual medium concentrations of total match in the water of these reservoirs. This load could be high in until 360 kg of P a year in case the managers assume a risk of 10% of increasing in more than 50 μg l-1 the annual medium concentrations of total phosphorus in the waters of these reservoirs

Avaliação da ecotoxicidade de percolados em áreas de disposição de resíduos na região metropolitana de Natal/RN

Leachates are effluent produced by decomposition of solid waste, they have complex composition and can be highly toxic. Therefore such percolated liquid should be collected and treated properly to avoid environmental contamination of soil and of water bodies. The objective of this study was to evaluate the toxicity through ecotoxicological tests with Ceriodaphnia dubia (Cladocera - Crustacea) of percolated liquids generated in two different systems of municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal in the city of Natal/ RN: A Sanitary Landfill in the Metropolitan Region of Natal/ RN, and in a dump off area. Furthermore, it was evaluated the possible contamination of the underground water of the dump off area. Two monthly samples were taken at four points between the months of May/2009 and January/2010. The Point "A" corresponds to the end of the pond leachate treatment in ASRMN; The Point "B" corresponds to a containment pond at the dump. The Point "C" is an area near one of the cells of the dump off area where the leachate outcrops; The Point "D" stands for an underground water well at the area. The last point, called "E" was sampled only once and corresponds to the slurry produced by temporary accumulation of solid waste in the open area of the dump. The ecotoxicological tests, acute and chronic, followed the ABNT 13373/2005 rules, with some modifications. The samples were characterized by measuring the pH number, the dissolved oxygen (DO), the salinity, BOD5, COD, Cd, Cu, Pb, Cr, Fe, Mg, Ni, and Zn. At Point A, the average number of EC50-48h ranged between 1.0% and 2.77% (v/v), showing a high toxicity of the leachate to C.dubia in all months. To this point, positive correlations were found between the EC50- 48 with precipitation. Negative correlations were found between the EC50- 48h with salinity. At point B there was no response of the acute exposure of organisms to the test samples. At point C the EC50-48h ranged from 17.68% to 35.36% in just two months of the five ones analyzed, not correlated meaning. Point D, the EC50-48h level ranged between 12.31% and 71.27%, showed a negative correlation with, only, precipitation. Although it was observed toxicity of underground water in the Landfill Area, there was no evidence of water contamination by leachate, however, due to the toxic character of this water, additional tests should be conducted to confirm the quality of water that is used for human supply. At point E there was no acute toxicity. These results support the dangers of inappropriate disposal of MSW to water bodies due to the high toxicity of the leachate produced highlighting the necessity of places of safe confinement and a treatment system more effective to it

Avaliação da toxicidade de florações naturais e de cultura de cianobactérias: efeitos sobre Ceriodaphnia silvestri (Crustacea, Cladocera)

The incidence of toxic cyanobacterial blooms is one of the important consequences of eutrophication in aquatic ecosystems. It is a very common phenomenon in reservoirs and shrimp ponds in the State of Rio Grande do Norte (RN), Brazil. Cyanobacterias produce toxins which can affect aquatic organisms and men trough the food chain. Aiming to contribute to the studies of cyanobacterias in RN, we propose: a) to evaluate the toxicity of isolated cyanobacterias in important fresh-water environments; and b) to verify the effects of both natural and cultured blooms occurred in reservoirs for human supply and in the cladoceran Ceriodaphnia silvestrii. This study was carried out using samples of natural blooms occurred between March and October of 2004 in Gargalheiras Dam (08º L e 39º W), in July of 2004 in Armando Ribeiro Gonçalves Dam (06o S e 37o W) and in commercial shrimp ponds (Litopenaeus vannamei) located in fresh-water environments. The samples were collected with plankton net (20µm.) for identification, isolation and obtaining of phytoplanktonic biomass for liophilization and later toxicity bioassays. The toxicity of cultured samples and natural blooms was investigated through bioassays in Swiss mice. Quantification of cyanobacteria in samples was conducted following the Ütermol method, with 300mL samples fixed with lugol. The toxicity test with Ceriodaphnia silvestrii followed ABNT, 2001 recommendations, and were accomplished with natural hepatotoxic bloom s samples and cultured samples of both non-toxic and neurotoxic C. raciborskii. In this test, five newborns, aged between 6 and 24 hours, were exposed to different concentrations (0 a 800 mg.L-1) of crude cyanobacterial extracts during 24 and 48 hours. Three replicates were used per treatment. The pH, temperature and dissolved oxygen at the beginning and after 24 and 48hours from the test were measured. We estimated the CL50 through the Trimmed Spearman-Karber method. The blooms were constituted by Microcystis panniformis, M. aeruginosa, Anabaena circinalis, Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii and Planktothrix agardhii, producers of mycrocistin-LR confirmed with HPLC analysis. Samples of hepatotoxic blooms registered toxinogenic potential for C. silvestrii, with CL50-24h value of 47.48 mg.L-1 and CL5048h of 38.15 mg.L-1 for GARG samples in march/2005; CL50-24h of 113,13 mg.L-1 and CL5048h of 88,24 mg.L-1 for ARG July/2004; CL50-24h of 300.39 mg.L-1 and CL50-48h of 149.89 mg.L-1 for GARG October/2005. For cultured samples, values of CL50-24h and CL50-48h for C. raciborskii toxic strains were 228.05 and 120.28 mg.L-1, respectively. There was no mortality of C. silvestrii during the tests with non-toxic C. raciborskii strain. The toxicity test with C. silvestrii presented good sensitivity degree to cyanotoxins. The toxicity of natural hepatotoxic blooms samples (microcystins) and cultured neurotoxic saxitoxins producer samples analyzed in this study give us strong indications of that toxin s influence on the zooplanktonic community structure in tropical aquatic environments. Eleven cyanobacteria strains were isolated, representing 6 species: Anabaenopsis sp., Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii, Chroococcus sp., Microcystis panniformis, Geitlerinema unigranulatum e Planktothrix agardhii. None presented toxicity in Swiss mice. The strains were catalogued and deposited in the Laboratório de Ecologia e Toxicologia de Organismos Aquáticos (LETMA), in UFRN, and will be utilized in ecotoxicológical and ecophysiological studies, aiming to clarify the causes and control of cyanobacterial blooms in aquatic environments in RN. This state s reservoirs must receive broader attention from the authorities, considering the constant blooms occurring in waters used for human consumption