Travel time prediction on signalised urban arterials by applying SARIMA modelling on Bluetooth data

Travel time prediction has long been the topic of transportation research. But most relevant prediction models in the literature are limited to motorways. Travel time prediction on arterial networks is challenging due to involving traffic signals and significant variability of individual vehicle travel time. The limited availability of traffic data from arterial networks makes travel time prediction even more challenging. Recently, there has been significant interest of exploiting Bluetooth data for travel time estimation. This research analysed the real travel time data collected by the Brisbane City Council using the Bluetooth technology on arterials. Databases, including experienced average daily travel time are created and classified for approximately 8 months. Thereafter, based on data characteristics, Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) modelling is applied on the database for short-term travel time prediction. The SARMIA model not only takes the previous continuous lags into account, but also uses the values from the same time of previous days for travel time prediction. This is carried out by defining a seasonality coefficient which improves the accuracy of travel time prediction in linear models. The accuracy, robustness and transferability of the model are evaluated through comparing the real and predicted values on three sites within Brisbane network. The results contain the detailed validation for different prediction horizons (5 min to 90 minutes). The model performance is evaluated mainly on congested periods and compared to the naive technique of considering the historical average.

Review : "English language education across Greater China" by A. Feng

I have formally learned English from Year Four till the completion of my undergraduate study in China. Because of this personal history, I was keen to review this book and revisit English education in China. The list of contributors to the book includes Anwei Feng (editor) and his colleagues, who play an insider role in English language practice, research, and policy-making in ‘Greater China’. ‘Greater China’ according to Feng, can be defined as geographically close, demographically Chinese-dominated, and culturally, economically, and socio-politically interrelated countries and territories where Chinese is either the mother tongue or used as an official language.

Role of particle size and composition in metal adsorption by solids deposited on urban road surfaces

Despite common knowledge that the metal content adsorbed by fine particles is relatively higher compared to coarser particles, the reasons for this phenomenon has gained little research attention. The research study discussed in the paper investigated the variations in metal content for different particle sizes of solids associated with pollutant build-up on urban road surfaces. Data analysis confirmed that parameters favourable for metal adsorption to solids such as specific surface area, organic carbon content, effective cation exchange capacity and clay forming minerals content decrease with the increase in particle size. Furthermore, the mineralogical composition of solids was found to be the governing factor influencing the specific surface area and effective cation exchange capacity. There is high quartz content in particles >150µm compared to particles <150µm. As particle size reduces below 150µm, the clay forming minerals content increases, providing favourable physical and chemical properties that influence adsorption.

Reply to comment on “Characterising metal build-up on urban road surfaces” by Egodawatta et al. (2013)

In the recent manuscript published by Egodawatta et al. (2013), the authors investigated the build-up process of heavy metals (HMs) associated with road-deposited sediment (RDS) on residential road surfaces, and presented empirical models for the prediction of both the surface loads and build-up rates of HMs on these surfaces...

Open and networked initiatives and the digital transformation of academic publishing in China

Many aspects of China's academic publishing system differ from the systems found in liberal market based economies of the United States, Western Europe and Australia. A high level of government intervention in both the publishing industry and academia and the challenges associated with attempting to make a transition from a centrally controlled towards a more market based publishing industry are two notable differences; however, as in other countries, academic communities and publishers are being transformed by digital technologies. This research explores the complex yet dynamic digital transformation of academic publishing in China, with a specific focus of the open and networked initiatives inspired by Web 2.0 and social media. The thesis draws on two case studies: Science Paper Online, a government-operated online preprint platform and open access mandate; and New Science, a social reference management website operated by a group of young PhD students. Its analysis of the innovations, business models, operating strategies, influences, and difficulties faced by these two initiatives highlights important characteristics and trends in digital publishing experiments in China. The central argument of this thesis is that the open and collaborative possibilities of Web 2.0 inspired initiatives are emerging outside the established journal and monograph publishing system in China, introducing innovative and somewhat disruptive approaches to the certification, communication and commercial exploitation of knowledge. Moreover, emerging publishing models are enabling and encouraging a new system of practising and communicating science in China, putting into practice some elements of the Open Science ethos. There is evidence of both disruptive change to old publishing structures and the adaptive modification of emergent replacements in the Chinese practice. As such, the transformation from traditional to digital and interactive modes of publishing, involves both competition and convergence between new and old publishers, as well as dynamics of co-evolution involving new technologies, business models, social norms, and government reform agendas. One key concern driving this work is whether there are new opportunities and new models for academic publishing in the Web 2.0 age and social media environment, which might allow the basic functions of communication and certification to be achieved more effectively. This thesis enriches existing knowledge of open and networked transformations of scholarly publishing by adding a Chinese story. Although the development of open and networked publishing platforms in China remains in its infancy, the lessons provided by this research are relevant to practitioners and stakeholders interested in understanding the transformative dynamics of networked technologies for publishing and advocating open access in practice, not only in China, but also internationally.

Design LED innovation to rejuvenate local food systems and healthy communities : an emerging research agenda

Food Sovereignty (food freedom) is about empowering people to develop their own local food system. Food Sovereignty challenges designers to enable people to innovate the local food system, rather than having a food system which is dictated by corporate interests and failed business ethics. Communities are realising the potential for design to assist in the innovation process, and add strategic value to potentially localise the food system. Design Led Innovation (DLI) offers a strategic framework to address large-scale cultural, systemic and economic changes. The DLI approach empowers communities to take organised action to achieve a healthy, prosperous and happy way of life. DLI can assist with business models in the business world and it is evident this approach can assist with creating social change too. This paper presents on an emerging research agenda aimed to assist designer’s focus from individuals and systems to communities and urban problems. This paper also presents the research proposition that DLI and service design coupled with social entrepreneurial ventures such as local food projects and creative community inventions, have the potential to enable social innovation for healthy and happy communities.

A methodology to develop an urban transport disadvantage framework : the case of Brisbane, Australia

Most individuals travel in order to participate in a network of activities which are important for attaining a good standard of living. Because such activities are commonly widely dispersed and not located locally, regular access to a vehicle is important to avoid exclusion. However, planning transport system provisions that can engage members of society in an acceptable degree of activity participation remains a great challenge. The main challenges in most cities of the world are due to significant population growth and rapid urbanisation which produces increased demand for transport. Keeping pace with these challenges in most urban areas is difficult due to the widening gap between supply and demand for transport systems which places the urban population at a transport disadvantage. The key element in mitigating the issue of urban transport disadvantage is to accurately identify the urban transport disadvantaged. Although wide-ranging variables and multi-dimensional methods have been used to identify this group, variables are commonly selected using ad-hoc techniques and unsound methods. This poses questions of whether the current variables used are accurately linked with urban transport disadvantage, and the effectiveness of the current policies. To fill these gaps, the research conducted for this thesis develops an operational urban transport disadvantage framework (UTDAF) based on key statistical urban transport disadvantage variables to accurately identify the urban transport disadvantaged. The thesis develops a methodology based on qualitative and quantitative statistical approaches to develop an urban transport disadvantage framework designed to accurately identify urban transport disadvantage. The reliability and the applicability of the methodology developed is the prime concern rather than the accuracy of the estimations. Relevant concepts that impact on urban transport disadvantage identification and measurement and a wide range of urban transport disadvantage variables were identified through a review of the existing literature. Based on the reviews, a conceptual urban transport disadvantage framework was developed based on the causal theory. Variables identified during the literature review were selected and consolidated based on the recommendations of international and local experts during the Delphi study. Following the literature review, the conceptual urban transport disadvantage framework was statistically assessed to identify key variables. Using the statistical outputs, the key variables were weighted and aggregated to form the UTDAF. Before the variable's weights were finalised, they were adjusted based on results of correlation analysis between elements forming the framework to improve the framework's accuracy. The UTDAF was then applied to three contextual conditions to determine the framework's effectiveness in identifying urban transport disadvantage. The development of the framework is likely to be a robust application measure for policy makers to justify infrastructure investments and to generate awareness about the issue of urban transport disadvantage.

Context matters : Violence against women and reporting to police in rural, suburban and urban areas

Despite plentiful efforts to identify perpetrator, victim, and incident characteristics correlated with reporting violence against women to police, few studies have addressed the contexts that shape such reporting. Even fewer have examined variations in these contexts across geographic areas. Drawing upon National Crime Victimization Survey data from 1992 through 2009, this paper uses conjunctive analysis of case configurations to identify and investigate the dominant situational contexts of reporting of violence against women to police across rural, suburban, and urban areas. Our findings show that context matters and the importance of incident, perpetrator, and victim characteristics vary across geographic areas.

Vote with your feet : hyperlocal polling for urban screens

Vote with Your Feet is a hyperlocal polling tool for urban screens that lets users express their opinion on current affairs. Similar to vox populi interviews on TV, it is meant to reflect the mindset of the community and its diversity. It shows one Yes/No question at a time and lets the user vote by stepping with their foot on one of two physical buttons. By not only displaying the local but also national results (taken from newspaper polls or TV news), it creates a sense of place and can spark offline conversations as well as making people think about their own opinion. As a tangible media installation that bridges physical and digital urban layers, the project empowers citizens and facilitates a bottom-up approach in terms of stimulating opinions and decision making (rather than broadcasting or automating). In a second iteration of the design, we want to encourage users to submit their own questions.

First flush behaviour in urban residential catchments

The current state of knowledge in relation to first flush does not provide a clear understanding of the role of rainfall and catchment characteristics in influencing this phenomenon. This is attributed to the inconsistent findings from research studies due to the unsatisfactory selection of first flush indicators and how first flush is defined. The research study discussed in this thesis provides the outcomes of a comprehensive analysis on the influence of rainfall and catchment characteristics on first flush behaviour in residential catchments. Two sets of first flush indicators are introduced in this study. These indicators were selected such that they are representative in explaining in a systematic manner the characteristics associated with first flush. Stormwater samples and rainfall-runoff data were collected and recorded from stormwater monitoring stations established at three urban catchments at Coomera Waters, Gold Coast, Australia. In addition, historical data were also used to support the data analysis. Three water quality parameters were analysed, namely, total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN). The data analyses were primarily undertaken using multi criteria decision making methods, PROMETHEE and GAIA. Based on the data obtained, the pollutant load distribution curve (LV) was determined for the individual rainfall events and pollutant types. Accordingly, two sets of first flush indicators were derived from the curve, namely, cumulative load wash-off for every 10% of runoff volume interval (interval first flush indicators or LV) from the beginning of the event and the actual pollutant load wash-off during a 10% increment in runoff volume (section first flush indicators or P). First flush behaviour showed significant variation with pollutant types. TSS and TP showed consistent first flush behaviour. However, the dissolved fraction of TN showed significant differences to TSS and TP first flush while particulate TN showed similarities. Wash-off of TSS, TP and particulate TN during the first 10% of the runoff volume showed no influence from corresponding rainfall intensity. This was attributed to the wash-off of weakly adhered solids on the catchment surface referred to as "short term pollutants" or "weakly adhered solids" load. However, wash-off after 10% of the runoff volume showed dependency on the rainfall intensity. This is attributed to the wash-off of strongly adhered solids being exposed when the weakly adhered solids diminish. The wash-off process was also found to depend on rainfall depth at the end part of the event as the strongly adhered solids are loosened due to impact of rainfall in the earlier part of the event. Events with high intensity rainfall bursts after 70% of the runoff volume did not demonstrate first flush behaviour. This suggests that rainfall pattern plays a critical role in the occurrence of first flush. Rainfall intensity (with respect to the rest of the event) that produces 10% to 20% runoff volume play an important role in defining the magnitude of the first flush. Events can demonstrate high magnitude first flush when the rainfall intensity occurring between 10% and 20% of the runoff volume is comparatively high while low rainfall intensities during this period produces low magnitude first flush. For events with first flush, the phenomenon is clearly visible up to 40% of the runoff volume. This contradicts the common definition that first flush only exists, if for example, 80% of the pollutant mass is transported in the first 30% of runoff volume. First flush behaviour for TN is different compared to TSS and TP. Apart from rainfall characteristics, the composition and the availability of TN on the catchment also play an important role in first flush. The analysis confirmed that events with low rainfall intensity can produce high magnitude first flush for the dissolved fraction of TN, while high rainfall intensity produce low dissolved TN first flush. This is attributed to the source limiting behaviour of dissolved TN wash-off where there is high wash-off during the initial part of a rainfall event irrespective of the intensity. However, for particulate TN, the influence of rainfall intensity on first flush characteristics is similar to TSS and TP. The data analysis also confirmed that first flush can occur as high magnitude first flush, low magnitude first flush or non existence of first flush. Investigation of the influence of catchment characteristics on first flush found that the key factors that influence the phenomenon are the location of the pollutant source, spatial distribution of the pervious and impervious surfaces in the catchment, drainage network layout and slope of the catchment. This confirms that first flush phenomenon cannot be evaluated based on a single or a limited set of parameters as a number of catchment characteristics should be taken into account. Catchments where the pollutant source is located close to the outlet, a high fraction of road surfaces, short travel time to the outlet, with steep slopes can produce high wash-off load during the first 50% of the runoff volume. Rainfall characteristics have a comparatively dominant impact on the wash-off process compared to the catchment characteristics. In addition, the pollutant characteristics also should be taken into account in designing stormwater treatment systems due to different wash-off behaviour. Analysis outcomes confirmed that there is a high TSS load during the first 20% of the runoff volume followed by TN which can extend up to 30% of the runoff volume. In contrast, high TP load can exist during the initial and at the end part of a rainfall event. This is related to the composition of TP available for the wash-off.

Fuel consumption and gas emissions of an automatic transmission vehicle following simple eco-driving instructions on urban roads

Following eco-driving instructions can reduce fuel consumption between 5 to 20% on urban roads with manual cars. The majority of Australian cars have an automatic transmission gear-box. It is therefore of interest to verify whether current eco-driving instructions are e cient for such vehicles. In this pilot study, participants (N=13) drove an instrumented vehicle (Toyota Camry 2007) with an automatic transmission. Fuel consumption of the participants was compared before and after they received simple eco-driving instructions. Participants drove the same vehicle on the same urban route under similar tra c conditions. We found that participants drove at similar speeds during their baseline and eco-friendly drives, and reduced the level of their accelerations and decelerations during eco-driving. Fuel consumption decreased for the complete drive by 7%, but not on the motorway and inclined sections of the study. Gas emissions were estimated with the VT-micro model, and emissions of the studied pollutants (CO2, CO, NOX and HC) were reduced, but no di erence was observed for CO2 on the motorway and inclined sections. The di erence for the complete lap is 3% for CO2. We have found evidence showing that simple eco-driving instructions are e cient in the case of automatic transmission in an urban environment, but towards the lowest values of the spectrum of fuel consumption reduction from the di erent eco-driving studies.

The association between cold spells and pediatric outpatient visits for asthma in Shanghai, China

Background Asthma is a serious global health problem. However, few studies have investigated the relationship between cold spells and pediatric outpatient visits for asthma. Objective To examine the association between cold spells and pediatric outpatient visits for asthma in Shanghai, China. Methods We collected daily data on pediatric outpatient visits for asthma, mean temperature, relative humidity, and ozone from Shanghai between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2009. We defined cold spells as four or more consecutive days with temperature below the 5th percentile of temperature during 2007–2009. We used a Poisson regression model to examine the impact of temperature on pediatric outpatient visits for asthma in cold seasons during 2007 and 2009. We examined the effect of cold spells on asthma compared with non-cold spell days. Results There was a significant relationship between cold temperatures and pediatric outpatient visits for asthma. The cold effects on children's asthma were observed at different lags. The lower the temperatures, the higher the risk for asthma attacks among children. Conclusion Cold temperatures, particularly cold spells, significantly increase the risk of pediatric outpatient visits for asthma. The findings suggest that asthma children need to be better protected from cold effects in winter.

Environmental sustainability of urban road transport : an integrated analysis for life cycle emission impact

Despite of significant contributions of urban road transport to global economy and society, it is one of the largest sources of local and global emission impact. In order to address the environmental concerns of urban road transport it is imperative to achieve a holistic understanding of contributory factors causing emissions which requires a complete look onto its whole life cycle. Previous studies were mainly based on segmental views which mostly studied environmental impacts of individual transport modes and very few considered impacts other than operational phase. This study develops an integrated life cycle inventory model for urban road transport emissions from a holistic modal perspective. Singapore case was used to demonstrate the model. Results show that total life cycle greenhouse gas emission from Singapore’s road transport sector is 7.8 million tons per year. The total amount of criteria air pollutants are also estimated in this study.

Urban consolidation : reality or fantasy

Urban consolidation has been a policy objective of many local and state governments in Australia for the past decade. Densification of city centres and other identified activity centres is a sensible solution to a plethora of policy objectives including: growth management, housing affordability, housing choice and infrastructure utilisation etc whilst preserving the fabric of existing neighbourhoods. However despite the plethora of supportive policies and ripe redevelopment sites, urban sprawl continues to permeate city fringes and affordable urban densification in the post GFC environment slips into the “too hard” basket. This article discusses current issues facing the development industry, highlighting factors contributing to the disequilibrium between demand and supply in the medium to high density residential markets.