Estimation of State Space Models and Stochastic Volatility

Ma thèse est composée de trois chapitres reliés à l'estimation des modèles espace-état et volatilité stochastique. Dans le première article, nous développons une procédure de lissage de l'état, avec efficacité computationnelle, dans un modèle espace-état linéaire et gaussien. Nous montrons comment exploiter la structure particulière des modèles espace-état pour tirer les états latents efficacement. Nous analysons l'efficacité computationnelle des méthodes basées sur le filtre de Kalman, l'algorithme facteur de Cholesky et notre nouvelle méthode utilisant le compte d'opérations et d'expériences de calcul. Nous montrons que pour de nombreux cas importants, notre méthode est plus efficace. Les gains sont particulièrement grands pour les cas où la dimension des variables observées est grande ou dans les cas où il faut faire des tirages répétés des états pour les mêmes valeurs de paramètres. Comme application, on considère un modèle multivarié de Poisson avec le temps des intensités variables, lequel est utilisé pour analyser le compte de données des transactions sur les marchés financières. Dans le deuxième chapitre, nous proposons une nouvelle technique pour analyser des modèles multivariés à volatilité stochastique. La méthode proposée est basée sur le tirage efficace de la volatilité de son densité conditionnelle sachant les paramètres et les données. Notre méthodologie s'applique aux modèles avec plusieurs types de dépendance dans la coupe transversale. Nous pouvons modeler des matrices de corrélation conditionnelles variant dans le temps en incorporant des facteurs dans l'équation de rendements, où les facteurs sont des processus de volatilité stochastique indépendants. Nous pouvons incorporer des copules pour permettre la dépendance conditionnelle des rendements sachant la volatilité, permettant avoir différent lois marginaux de Student avec des degrés de liberté spécifiques pour capturer l'hétérogénéité des rendements. On tire la volatilité comme un bloc dans la dimension du temps et un à la fois dans la dimension de la coupe transversale. Nous appliquons la méthode introduite par McCausland (2012) pour obtenir une bonne approximation de la distribution conditionnelle à posteriori de la volatilité d'un rendement sachant les volatilités d'autres rendements, les paramètres et les corrélations dynamiques. Le modèle est évalué en utilisant des données réelles pour dix taux de change. Nous rapportons des résultats pour des modèles univariés de volatilité stochastique et deux modèles multivariés. Dans le troisième chapitre, nous évaluons l'information contribuée par des variations de volatilite réalisée à l'évaluation et prévision de la volatilité quand des prix sont mesurés avec et sans erreur. Nous utilisons de modèles de volatilité stochastique. Nous considérons le point de vue d'un investisseur pour qui la volatilité est une variable latent inconnu et la volatilité réalisée est une quantité d'échantillon qui contient des informations sur lui. Nous employons des méthodes bayésiennes de Monte Carlo par chaîne de Markov pour estimer les modèles, qui permettent la formulation, non seulement des densités a posteriori de la volatilité, mais aussi les densités prédictives de la volatilité future. Nous comparons les prévisions de volatilité et les taux de succès des prévisions qui emploient et n'emploient pas l'information contenue dans la volatilité réalisée. Cette approche se distingue de celles existantes dans la littérature empirique en ce sens que ces dernières se limitent le plus souvent à documenter la capacité de la volatilité réalisée à se prévoir à elle-même. Nous présentons des applications empiriques en utilisant les rendements journaliers des indices et de taux de change. Les différents modèles concurrents sont appliqués à la seconde moitié de 2008, une période marquante dans la récente crise financière.

A simple model of two-stage choice

I provide choice-theoretic foundations for a simple two-stage model, called transitive shortlist methods, where choices are made by sequentially by applying a pair of transitive preferences (or rationales) to eliminate inferior alternatives. Despite its simplicity, the model accommodates a wide range of choice phenomena including the status quo bias, framing, homophily, compromise, and limited willpower. I establish that the model can be succinctly characterized in terms of some well-documented context effects in choice. I also show that the underlying rationales are straightforward to determine from readily observable reversals in choice. Finally, I highlight the usefulness of these results in a variety of applications.

Studies on Pseudoscalar Meson Bound States and Semileptonic Decays in a Relativistic Potential Model

In this thesis quark-antiquark bound states are considered using a relativistic two-body equation for Dirac particles. The mass spectrum of mesons includes bound states involving two heavy quarks or one heavy and one light quark. In order to analyse these states within a unified formalism, it is desirable to have a two-fermion equation that limits to one body Dirac equation with a static interaction for the light quark when the other particle's mass tends to infinity. A suitable two-body equation has been developed by Mandelzweig and Wallace. This equation is solved in momentum space and is used to describe the complete spectrum of mesons. The potential used in this work contains a short range one-gluon exchange interaction and a long range linear confining and constant potential terms. This model is used to investigate the decay processes of heavy mesons. Semileptonic decays are more tractable since there is no final state interactions between the leptons and hadrons that would otherwise complicate the situation. Studies on B and D meson decays are helpful to understand the nonperturbative strong interactions of heavy mesons, which in turn is useful to extract the details of weak interaction process. Calculation of form factors of these semileptonic decays of pseudo scalar mesons are also presented.

Closure of the Monte Carlo dynamical equation in the spherical Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model

We study the analytical solution of the Monte Carlo dynamics in the spherical Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model using the technique of the generating function. Explicit solutions for one-time observables (like the energy) and two-time observables (like the correlation and response function) are obtained. We show that the crucial quantity which governs the dynamics is the acceptance rate. At zero temperature, an adiabatic approximation reveals that the relaxational behavior of the model corresponds to that of a single harmonic oscillator with an effective renormalized mass.

Ground- and excited-state properties of M-center oxygen vacancy aggregates in the bulk and the surface of MgO

Aggregates of oxygen vacancies (F centers) represent a particular form of point defects in ionic crystals. In this study we have considered the combination of two oxygen vacancies, the M center, in the bulk and on the surface of MgO by means of cluster model calculations. Both neutral and charged forms of the defect M and M+ have been taken into account. The ground state of the M center is characterized by the presence of two doubly occupied impurity levels in the gap of the material; in M+ centers the highest level is singly occupied. For the ground-state properties we used a gradient corrected density functional theory approach. The dipole-allowed singlet-to-singlet and doublet-to-doublet electronic transitions have been determined by means of explicitly correlated multireference second-order perturbation theory calculations. These have been compared with optical transitions determined with the time-dependent density functional theory formalism. The results show that bulk M and M+ centers give rise to intense absorptions at about 4.4 and 4.0 eV, respectively. Another less intense transition at 1.3 eV has also been found for the M+ center. On the surface the transitions occur at 1.6 eV (M+) and 2 eV (M). The results are compared with recently reported electron energy loss spectroscopy spectra on MgO thin films.

Onset And Characterisation Of Chaos In A Two Dimensional Nonlinear Deterministic Model

Nature is full of phenomena which we call "chaotic", the weather being a prime example. What we mean by this is that we cannot predict it to any significant accuracy, either because the system is inherently complex, or because some of the governing factors are not deterministic. However, during recent years it has become clear that random behaviour can occur even in very simple systems with very few number of degrees of freedom, without any need for complexity or indeterminacy. The discovery that chaos can be generated even with the help of systems having completely deterministic rules - often models of natural phenomena - has stimulated a lo; of research interest recently. Not that this chaos has no underlying order, but it is of a subtle kind, that has taken a great deal of ingenuity to unravel. In the present thesis, the author introduce a new nonlinear model, a ‘modulated’ logistic map, and analyse it from the view point of ‘deterministic chaos‘.

Conceptualisation Of Model For Studying Consumer Purchase Behaviour Of Passenger Cars

Automobile Industry in India is influenced by the presence of national and multi-national manufacturers. The presence of many manufacturers and brands in the state provides many choices to the customer. The current market for car manufacturers has been transformed from a monopoly of one or two manufacturers in the seventies to oligopoly of many manufacturers in the current marketing scenario. The main objective of the research paper is to explore and conceptualize various parameters and develop a model, which influence the purchase patterns of passenger cars in the State of Kerala. Thus, the main purpose of this paper is to come up with a model, which shall facilitate further study on the consumer purchase behaviour patterns of passenger car owners in the State of Kerala, India. The author intends to undertake further quantitative analysis to verify and validate the model so developed. The main methods used for this paper are secondary research on available material, depth interview of car dealers, car financing agencies and car owners in the city of Cochin, in Kerala State in India. The depth interviews were conducted with the use of prepared questionnaire for car dealers, car customers and car financing agencies. The findings resulted in the identification of the parameters that influence the consumer purchase behaviour of passenger cars and the formulation of the model, which will be the basis for the further research of the author. The paper will be of tremendous value to the existing and new car manufacturers both indigenous and foreign, to formalize and strategies their policies towards an effective marketing strategy, so as to market their models in the State, which is known for its high literacy, consumerism and higher educational penetration

Studies on the interaction of two level atoms with quantized electromagnetic field

The present study described about the interaction of a two level atom and squeezed field with time varying frequency. By applying a sinusoidal variation in the frequency of the field, the randomness in population inversion is reduced and the collapses and periodic revivals are regained. Quantum optics is an emerging field in physics which mainly deals with the interaction of atoms with quantised electromagnetic fields. Jaynes-Cummings Model (JCM) is a key model among them, which describes the interaction between a two level atom and a single mode radiation field. Here the study begins with a brief history of light, atom and their interactions. Also discussed the interaction between atoms and electromagnetic fields. The study suggest a method to manipulate the population inversion due to interaction and control the randomness in it, by applying a time dependence on the frequency of the interacting squeezed field.The change in behaviour of the population inversion due to the presence of a phase factor in the applied frequency variation is explained here.This study also describes the interaction between two level atom and electromagnetic field in nonlinear Kerr medium. It deals with atomic and field state evolution in a coupled cavity system. Our results suggest a new method to control and manipulate the population of states in two level atom radiation interaction,which is very essential for quantum information processing.We have also studied the variation of atomic population inversion with time, when a two level atom interacts with light field, where the light field has a sinusoidal frequency variation with a constant phase. In both coherent field and squeezed field cases, the population inversion variation is completely different from the phase zero frequency modulation case. It is observed that in the presence of a non zero phase φ, the population inversion oscillates sinusoidally.Also the collapses and revivals gradually disappears when φ increases from 0 to π/2. When φ = π/2 the evolution of population inversion is identical to the case when a two level atom interacts with a Fock state. Thus, by applying a phase shifted frequency modulation one can induce sinusoidal oscillations of atomic inversion in linear medium, those normally observed in Kerr medium. We noticed that the entanglement between the atom and field can be controlled by varying the period of the field frequency fluctuations. The system has been solved numerically and the behaviour of it for different initial conditions and different susceptibility values are analysed. It is observed that, for weak cavity coupling the effect of susceptibility is minimal. In cases of strong cavity coupling, susceptibility factor modifies the nature in which the probability oscillates with time. Effect of susceptibility on probability of states is closely related to the initial state of the system.

Transport properties of one-dimensional, disordered two-band systems

We have studied the transport properties of disordered one-dimensional two-band systems. The model includes a narrow d band hybridised with an s band. The Landauer formula was used in the case of a very narrow d band or in the case of short chains. The results were compared with the localisation length of the wavefunctions calculated by the transfer matrix method, which allows the use of very lang chains, and an excellent agreement was obtained.

Two-photon decay of the 1s2s ^1S_0 state in _36Kr^34+ produced by resonant transfer and excitation

The doubly excited 2s2p ^1P_1 level of Kr^{34+} populated via resonant transfer and excitation (RTE) feeds selectively the metastable ls2s ^1 S_0 state which can only decay via simultaneous emission of two photons to the ground state 1s^2 ^1 S_0. X-ray/X-ray coincidence measurements in heavy ionatom collisions enable the direct measurement of the spectral distribution of the two-photon decay in He-like ions. In addition, we observe strong photon cascades indueed by radiative electron capture.

Femtosecond two-photon ionization spectroscopy of the B state of Na_3 clusters

We report time-resolved experiments studying the dynamics of the Na_3 B-X system. Femtosecond pump-probe techniques combined with ion time-of-flight (TOF) and zero kinetic energy (ZEKE) photoelectron spectroscopy allow us to observe the three-dimensional wavepacket motion in the excited Na_3 B state and in the Na_3 X state. The ground state wavepacket is induced by stimulated emission pumping during the pump pulse. The X-state dynamics is dominated by the three vibrational modes of the Na_3. Furthermore we observed pseudorotational wavepacket motion in the B state. We do not observe a fragmentation of the B state within a time interval of 10 ps.

A finite state model for on-line analytical processing in triadic contexts

About ten years ago, triadic contexts were presented by Lehmann and Wille as an extension of Formal Concept Analysis. However, they have rarely been used up to now, which may be due to the rather complex structure of the resulting diagrams. In this paper, we go one step back and discuss how traditional line diagrams of standard (dyadic) concept lattices can be used for exploring and navigating triadic data. Our approach is inspired by the slice & dice paradigm of On-Line-Analytical Processing (OLAP). We recall the basic ideas of OLAP, and show how they may be transferred to triadic contexts. For modeling the navigation patterns a user might follow, we use the formalisms of finite state machines. In order to present the benefits of our model, we show how it can be used for navigating the IT Baseline Protection Manual of the German Federal Office for Information Security.

Generic Finite Element Model for Mechanically Consistent Scaling of Composite Beam-to-column Joint with Welded Connection

To study the behaviour of beam-to-column composite connection more sophisticated finite element models is required, since component model has some severe limitations. In this research a generic finite element model for composite beam-to-column joint with welded connections is developed using current state of the art local modelling. Applying mechanically consistent scaling method, it can provide the constitutive relationship for a plane rectangular macro element with beam-type boundaries. Then, this defined macro element, which preserves local behaviour and allows for the transfer of five independent states between local and global models, can be implemented in high-accuracy frame analysis with the possibility of limit state checks. In order that macro element for scaling method can be used in practical manner, a generic geometry program as a new idea proposed in this study is also developed for this finite element model. With generic programming a set of global geometric variables can be input to generate a specific instance of the connection without much effort. The proposed finite element model generated by this generic programming is validated against testing results from University of Kaiserslautern. Finally, two illustrative examples for applying this macro element approach are presented. In the first example how to obtain the constitutive relationships of macro element is demonstrated. With certain assumptions for typical composite frame the constitutive relationships can be represented by bilinear laws for the macro bending and shear states that are then coupled by a two-dimensional surface law with yield and failure surfaces. In second example a scaling concept that combines sophisticated local models with a frame analysis using a macro element approach is presented as a practical application of this numerical model.

Technical and scale efficiency of cassava production system in Delta State, Nigeria: an application of Two-Stage DEA approach

The present study examines the level of pure technical and scale efficiencies of cassava production system including its sub-processes (that is production and processing stages) of 278 cassava farmers/processors from three regions of Delta State, Nigeria by applying Two-Stage Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach. Results reveal that pure technical efficiency (PTE) is significantly lower at the production stage 0.41 vs 0.55 for the processing stage, but scale efficiency (SE) is high at both stages (0.84 and 0.87), implying that productivity can be improved substantially by reallocation of resources and adjusting operation size. The socio-economic determinants exert differential impacts on PTE and SE at each stage. Overall, education, experience and main occupation as farmer significantly improve SE while subsistence pressure reduces it. Extension contact significantly improves SE at the processing stage but reduces PTE and SE overall. Inverse size-PTE and size-SE relationships exist in cassava production system. In other words, large/medium farms are technically and scale inefficient. Gender gap exists in performance. Male farmers are technically efficient at processing stage but scale inefficient overall. Farmers in northern region are technically efficient. Investments in education, extension services and infrastructure are suggested as policy options to improve the cassava sector in Nigeria.

Porter’s model and exports in Colombia: analysis of two profitable products

Tanto las industrias legales como ilegales tienen líderez y gerentes. Estas personas al mando deben hacer decisiones estrategicas con el fin de asegurar la rentabilidad de sus negocios. La manera en que ellos toman estas decisiones y las consecuencias de estas mismas son las preguntas que este documento pretende resolver. Haciendo una aplicación general del modelo de Michael Porter, este documento analiza y describe brevemente la configuración de ambos mercados (legal e illegal): es decir las maneras de hacer negocios, las tácticas utilizadas para negociar con los proveedores y compradores, las estrategias para resaltar los beneficios de sus productos frente a los sustitutos, y en general las acciones realizadas para competir, obtener un posicionamiento y porción en el mercado total. El objetivo de este documento no es exaltar las estrategias de los líderes en las industrias ilegales, sino resaltar aquello que los directivos en las industrias legales podrían hacer mejor para mejorar el nombre de los productos colombianos en el exterior.