Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the "delta method" to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature-mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heatrelated mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office HadCM3 climate model to the temperature-mortality models constructed and validated in Part 1. We investigate the impacts for four cases based on various combinations of mean and variability changes in temperature with climate change. The results demonstrate that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. This has implications for interpreting existing impacts estimates that have used the delta method. We present a novel method for the creation of temperature projection time series that includes changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change and is not influenced by climate model bias in the modelled present. The method should be useful for future impacts assessments. Few studies consider the implications that the limitations of the climate model may have on the heatrelated mortality impacts. Here, we demonstrate the importance of considering this by conducting an evaluation of the daily and extreme temperatures from HadCM3, which demonstrates that the estimates of future heat-related mortality for Dallas and Lisbon may be overestimated due to positive climate model bias. Likewise, estimates for Boston and London may be underestimated due to negative climate model bias. Finally, we briefly consider uncertainties in the impacts associated with greenhouse gas emissions and acclimatisation. The uncertainties in the mortality impacts due to different emissions scenarios of greenhouse gases in the future varied considerably by location. Allowing for acclimatisation to an extra 2°C in mean temperatures reduced future heat-related mortality by approximately half that of no acclimatisation in each city.

Public libraries in the cities of the Roman Empire

A chapter based on a paper given at major conference, arguing that the civic and architectural contexts of many public libraries in the Roman world contributed strongly to their status as conspicuous 'public' buildings, and should inform the way we think of library functions in the Roman world

The effectiveness of somatic embryogenesis in eliminating the cocoa swollen shoot virus from infected cocoa trees

Investigations were undertaken on the use of somatic embryogenesis to generate cocoa swollen shoot virus (CSSV) disease free clonal propagules, from infected trees. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) capillary electrophoresis revealed the presence of CSSV in all the callus tissues induced from the CSSV-infected Amelonado cocoa trees (T1, T2 and T4). The virus was transmitted to primary somatic embryos induced from the infected callus tissues at the rate of 10 (19%), 18 (14%) and 16 (15%) for T1, T2 and T4, respectively. Virus free primary somatic embryos from the infected callus tissues converted into plantlets tested CSSV negative by PCR/capillary electrophoresis 2 years after weaning. Secondary somatic embryos induced from the CSSV-infected primary somatic embryos revealed the presence of viral fragments at the rate of 4 (4%) and 9 (9%) for T2 and T4, respectively. Real-time PCR revealed 23 of the 24 secondary somatic embryos contained no detectable virus. Based on these findings, it is proposed that progressive elimination of the CSSV in infected cocoa trees occurred from primary embryogenesis to secondary embryogenesis. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Shoot dieback in clipped young Golden Leyland (Cupressocyparis leylandii) trees - a physiological mechanism?

Shoot dieback is a problem in frequently trimmed Leyland hedges and is increasingly affecting gardeners’ choice of hedge trees, having a negative effect on a conifer nursery industry. Some damage can be attributed to the feeding by aphids, but it is unclear if there are also underlying physiological causes. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that shoot-clipping of conifer trees during adverse growing conditions (i.e. high air temperature and low soil moisture) could be leading to shoot ‘dieback’. Three-year-old Golden Leyland Cypress (x Cupressocyparis leylandii ‘Excalibur Gold’) plants were subjected to either a well-watered or droughted irrigation regime and placed in either a ‘hot’ (average day temperature = 40°C) or a ‘cool’ (average day temperature = 27°C) glasshouse compartment. Half of the plants from each glasshouse were clipped on Day 14 and again on Day 50. Measurements of soil moisture content (SMC), net CO2 assimilation rate (A), stomatal conductance (gs), branchlet xylem water potential (XWP), plant height and foliage colour were made. Within the clipped and unclipped treatments of both glasshouse compartments, plants from the droughted regime had significantly lower values for A, gs and XWP than those from the well-watered regime. However, there was no difference in these parameters between the hot and cool glasshouse compartments. The trends seen for A, gs and XWP of all treatments generally mirrored changes in SMC indicating a direct effect of water supply on these parameters. By the end of the experiment the overall foliage colour of plants from the hot glasshouse was darker than that of plants from the cool glasshouse and the overall foliage colour was also darker following shoot clipping. In general, shoot clipping led to increases in A, gs XWP and SMC. This may be due to the reduction in total leaf area leading to a greater supply of water for the remaining leaves. No shoot ‘dieback’ was observed in any treatment in response to drought stress or shoot-clipping.

LVB: parsimony and simulated annealing in the search for phylogenetic trees

Summary: The program LVB seeks parsimonious phylogenies from nucleotide alignments, using the simulated annealing heuristic. LVB runs fast and gives high quality results.

Biomass functions and expansion factors in young Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst) trees

Roots, stems, branches and needles of 160 Norway spruce trees younger than 10 years were sampled in seven forest stands in central Slovakia in order to establish their biomassfunctions (BFs) and biomassexpansionfactors (BEFs). We tested three models for each biomass pool based on the stem base diameter, tree height and the two parameters combined. BEF values decreased for all spruce components with increasing height and diameter, which was most evident in very young trees under 1 m in height. In older trees, the values of BEFs did tend to stabilise at the height of 3–4 m. We subsequently used the BEFs to calculate dry biomass of the stands based on average stem base diameter and tree height. Total stand biomass grew with increasing age of the stands from about 1.0 Mg ha−1 at 1.5 years to 44.3 Mg ha−1 at 9.5 years. The proportion of stem and branch biomass was found to increase with age, while that of needles was fairly constant and the proportion of root biomass did decrease as the stands grew older.

Thorn-dwelling ants provide antiherbivore defence for camelthorn trees, Vachellia erioloba, in Namibia

Ants are widely employed by plants as an antiherbivore defence. A single host plant can associate with multiple, symbiotic ant species, although usually only a single ant species at a time. Different plant-ant species may vary in the degree to which they defend their host plant. In Kenya, ant–acacia interactions are well studied, but less is known about systems elsewhere in Africa. A southern African species, Vachellia erioloba, is occupied by thorn-dwelling ants from three different genera. Unusually, multiple colonies of all these ants simultaneously and stably inhabit trees. We investigated if the ants on V. erioloba (i) deter insect herbivores; (ii) differ in their effectiveness depending on the identity of the herbivore; and (iii) protect the tree against an important herbivore, the larvae of the lepidopteran Gonometa postica. We show that experimental exclusion of ants leads to greater levels of herbivory on trees. The ants inhabiting V. erioloba are an effective deterrent against hemipteran and coleopteran, but not lepidopteran herbivores. Defensive services do not vary among ant species, but only Crematogaster ants exhibit aggression towards G. postica. This highlights the potential of the V. erioloba–ant mutualism for studying ant–plant interactions that involve multiple, simultaneously resident thorn-dwelling ant species.