Az abduktív menedzsmenttől a tudáskormányzásig = From abductive management to knowledge governance

Hogyan juthat az ember helyes döntésekig egy adott területre (mikroverzumra) vonatkozó mély, belsővé tett tudás birtokában anélkül, hogy következtetne? Az abduktivitás fogalmának körüljárása után öt hüvelykujjszabályt fogalmaz meg a szerző az abdukció működéséről, majd összekapcsolja azt a vezetői munkával, tudáskormányzási kontextusban. Ebből kiindulva a globális munkatérelmélet (Global Workspace Theory) alkalmazásával a vezetők vagy az organizmusként felfogott szervezetek abduktív kapacitásának fejlesztési lehetőségeit vizsgálja. Befejezésül egy hatlépéses, a szervezeti szintű abduktivitásra rákérdező speciális tudásaudit-módszertan rövid kifejtésére vállalkozik, két esettanulmány vázlatos bemutatásával. _____ How to make right decisions without any inferences, thanks to interiorized, deep knowledge on the given field (micro verse)? After defining the concept of abductivity, the author presents five thumbnail-like rules about the nature of abductivity, combining it with leadership aspects and knowledge governance approach. He introduces a method supporting the development of abductive capability of a leader or an organization as a whole, using the Global Works pace Theory. Finally, the author tries to briefly formulate six steps of an organization-level knowledge governance audit framework, illustrating its relevance with two short case studies.

Immunophylogenetic aspects of a gorgonian coral

One goal of comparative immunology is to derive inferences about evolutionary pathways in the development of immune-defense systems. Almost 700 million years ago, a major divergence occurred in the phylogeny of animals, spitting all descendants into either the protostome or deuterostome (includes vertebrates) lineages. Genes have evolved independently along these lineages for that amount of time. Cnidarians originated before that divergence event, and can hold clues as to which immune response genes are homologous to both lineages. This work uses the gorgonian coral, Swiftia exserta, for two major reasons: (1) because of their phylogenetic position, corals are an important animal model in studies concerning the phylogeny of immune-response genes, and (2) nothing is known about the genes controlling immunocompetence in corals. The work described here has important implications in both innate and adaptive immunity. ^ The vertebrate complement system is a major component of innate immunity. C3 is a critical component of the three pathways of complement. Because of its opsonic properties, a C3-like protein is expected to have evolved early. However, currently available data suggests that complement-like components are unique to the deuterostome lineage. This work describes the cloning and characterization of a C3-like gene from S. exserta. The deduced polypeptide sequence reveals conservation of multiple, functionally critical, sites while sharing physiochemical and structural properties with the complement components C3/C4/C5. ^ Antigen processing, via intracellular enzymatic proteasomes, is a major requirement of vertebrate adaptive immunity. These organelles have a catalytic core, through which pass intracellular proteins for degradation into peptides presentable to the immune system. LMP 7 is one component of the paralogous “immuno-proteasome”. LMP 7 is a paralog of the ubiquitous LMP X, but is restricted to vertebrates. While LMP 7 is absent in the coral, this work describes a coral LMP X gene. Phylogenetic analyses, along with hydropathy profiling of a critical portion of the invertebrate and vertebrate paralogous genes, suggests that some invertebrates have two diverging LMP X genes. In some cases, one LMP X protein shares characteristics with vertebrate LMP 7. This work presents new evidence for how the LMP X and 7 genes evolved. ^

Principal component and second generation wavelet analysis of Treasury yield curve evolution

Prices of U.S. Treasury securities vary over time and across maturities. When the market in Treasurys is sufficiently complete and frictionless, these prices may be modeled by a function time and maturity. A cross-section of this function for time held fixed is called the yield curve; the aggregate of these sections is the evolution of the yield curve. This dissertation studies aspects of this evolution. ^ There are two complementary approaches to the study of yield curve evolution here. The first is principal components analysis; the second is wavelet analysis. In both approaches both the time and maturity variables are discretized. In principal components analysis the vectors of yield curve shifts are viewed as observations of a multivariate normal distribution. The resulting covariance matrix is diagonalized; the resulting eigenvalues and eigenvectors (the principal components) are used to draw inferences about the yield curve evolution. ^ In wavelet analysis, the vectors of shifts are resolved into hierarchies of localized fundamental shifts (wavelets) that leave specified global properties invariant (average change and duration change). The hierarchies relate to the degree of localization with movements restricted to a single maturity at the base and general movements at the apex. Second generation wavelet techniques allow better adaptation of the model to economic observables. Statistically, the wavelet approach is inherently nonparametric while the wavelets themselves are better adapted to describing a complete market. ^ Principal components analysis provides information on the dimension of the yield curve process. While there is no clear demarkation between operative factors and noise, the top six principal components pick up 99% of total interest rate variation 95% of the time. An economically justified basis of this process is hard to find; for example a simple linear model will not suffice for the first principal component and the shape of this component is nonstationary. ^ Wavelet analysis works more directly with yield curve observations than principal components analysis. In fact the complete process from bond data to multiresolution is presented, including the dedicated Perl programs and the details of the portfolio metrics and specially adapted wavelet construction. The result is more robust statistics which provide balance to the more fragile principal components analysis. ^

Statistical analysis and meta-analysis of microarray data

The microarray technology provides a high-throughput technique to study gene expression. Microarrays can help us diagnose different types of cancers, understand biological processes, assess host responses to drugs and pathogens, find markers for specific diseases, and much more. Microarray experiments generate large amounts of data. Thus, effective data processing and analysis are critical for making reliable inferences from the data. ^ The first part of dissertation addresses the problem of finding an optimal set of genes (biomarkers) to classify a set of samples as diseased or normal. Three statistical gene selection methods (GS, GS-NR, and GS-PCA) were developed to identify a set of genes that best differentiate between samples. A comparative study on different classification tools was performed and the best combinations of gene selection and classifiers for multi-class cancer classification were identified. For most of the benchmarking cancer data sets, the gene selection method proposed in this dissertation, GS, outperformed other gene selection methods. The classifiers based on Random Forests, neural network ensembles, and K-nearest neighbor (KNN) showed consistently god performance. A striking commonality among these classifiers is that they all use a committee-based approach, suggesting that ensemble classification methods are superior. ^ The same biological problem may be studied at different research labs and/or performed using different lab protocols or samples. In such situations, it is important to combine results from these efforts. The second part of the dissertation addresses the problem of pooling the results from different independent experiments to obtain improved results. Four statistical pooling techniques (Fisher inverse chi-square method, Logit method. Stouffer's Z transform method, and Liptak-Stouffer weighted Z-method) were investigated in this dissertation. These pooling techniques were applied to the problem of identifying cell cycle-regulated genes in two different yeast species. As a result, improved sets of cell cycle-regulated genes were identified. The last part of dissertation explores the effectiveness of wavelet data transforms for the task of clustering. Discrete wavelet transforms, with an appropriate choice of wavelet bases, were shown to be effective in producing clusters that were biologically more meaningful. ^

Adolescent readers' self-perceptions of affective factors related to performance on standardized tests

The purpose of this study was to investigate which affective factors of adolescent high school readers were related to high-level readers, middle-level readers and low-level readers. The research problem was to determine the relationship between adolescent high school students' self-perceived reading self-efficacy factors and the students' reading performance on a standardized reading assessment considering demographic factors of age, gender and socio-economic status as covariates. The research design was ex post facto making inferences without direct intervention. The sample was obtained from one large, diverse, urban high school, consisting of 9th and 10th grade adolescent students (N = 176). Students voluntarily completed a self-report, reading self-efficacy survey. School records were used to obtain standardized reading level scores, age, gender, and socio-economic status data. An exploratory factor analysis of the self-efficacy survey responses resulted in the identification of 7 underlying factors. The striving (low-level) readers had significantly lower self-perceptions on 5 of the 7 affective factors than the middle-level readers, and strong (high-level) readers, p < .05. The 5 affective factors on which the striving readers had significantly lower self-perceptions were: (a) Observational Comparison, (b) Progress, (c) Lack of Progress, (d) Lack of Anxiety, and (e) Positive Social Feedback. The 2 affective factors which were not significantly different for reader level were Anxiety and Negative Social Feedback. Girls had significantly less anxiety than boys for both of the factors in the Anxiety category. Statistical results showed that none of the demographic covariates tested; age, gender, or socio-economic status, moderated the relationship between affective reader self-efficacy factors and reader level. This study concluded that there were distinguishable differences for striving, middle, and strong readers' self-efficacy factors. Determining affective factors related to reading can be used to create better instructional environments and instruction for adolescent students.

Tracking rates of ecotone migration due to salt-water encroachment using fossil mollusks in coastal South Florida

We determined the rate of migration of coastal vegetation zones in response to salt-water encroachment through paleoecological analysis of mollusks in 36 sediment cores taken along transects perpendicular to the coast in a 5.5 km2 band of coastal wetlands in southeast Florida. Five vegetation zones, separated by distinct ecotones, included freshwater swamp forest, freshwater marsh, and dwarf, transitional and fringing mangrove forest. Vegetation composition, soil depth and organic matter content, porewater salinity and the contemporary mollusk community were determined at 226 sites to establish the salinity preferences of the mollusk fauna. Calibration models allowed accurate inference of salinity and vegetation type from fossil mollusk assemblages in chronologically calibrated sediments. Most sediments were shallow (20–130 cm) permitting coarse-scale temporal inferences for three zones: an upper peat layer (zone 1) representing the last 30–70 years, a mixed peat-marl layer (zone 2) representing the previous ca. 150–250 years and a basal section (zone 3) of ranging from 310 to 2990 YBP. Modern peat accretion rates averaged 3.1 mm yr)1 while subsurface marl accreted more slowly at 0.8 mm yr)1. Salinity and vegetation type for zone 1 show a steep gradient with freshwater communities being confined west of a north–south drainage canal constructed in 1960. Inferences for zone 2 (pre-drainage) suggest that freshwater marshes and associated forest units covered 90% of the area, with mangrove forests only present along the peripheral coastline. During the entire pre-drainage history, salinity in the entire area was maintained below a mean of 2 ppt and only small pockets of mangroves were present; currently, salinity averages 13.2 ppt and mangroves occupy 95% of the wetland. Over 3 km2 of freshwater wetland vegetation type have been lost from this basin due to salt-water encroachment, estimated from the mollusk-inferred migration rate of freshwater vegetation of 3.1 m yr)1 for the last 70 years (compared to 0.14 m yr)1 for the pre-drainage period). This rapid rate of encroachment is driven by sea-level rise and freshwater diversion. Plans for rehydrating these basins with freshwater will require high-magnitude re-diversion to counteract locally high rates of sea-level rise.

Applying stable isotopes to examine food-web structure: an overview of analytical tools

Stable isotope analysis has emerged as one of the primary means for examining the structure and dynamics of food webs, and numerous analytical approaches are now commonly used in the field. Techniques range from simple, qualitative inferences based on the isotopic niche, to Bayesian mixing models that can be used to characterize food-web structure at multiple hierarchical levels. We provide a comprehensive review of these techniques, and thus a single reference source to help identify the most useful approaches to apply to a given data set. We structure the review around four general questions: (1) what is the trophic position of an organism in a food web?; (2) which resource pools support consumers?; (3) what additional information does relative position of consumers in isotopic space reveal about food-web structure?; and (4) what is the degree of trophic variability at the intrapopulation level? For each general question, we detail different approaches that have been applied, discussing the strengths and weaknesses of each. We conclude with a set of suggestions that transcend individual analytical approaches, and provide guidance for future applications in the field.

Challenges in using siliceous subfossils as a tool for inferring past water level and hydroperiod in Everglades marshes

Successfully rehabilitating drained wetlands through hydrologic restoration is dependent on defining restoration targets, a process that is informed by pre-drainage conditions, as well as understanding linkages between hydrology and ecosystem structure. Paleoecological records can inform restoration goals by revealing long-term patterns of change, but are dependent on preservation of biomarkers that provide meaningful interpretations of environmental change. In the Florida Everglades, paleohydrological hind-casting could improve restoration forecasting, but frequent drying of marsh soils leads to poor preservation of many biomarkers. To determine the effectiveness of employing siliceous subfossils in paleohydrological reconstructions, we examined diatoms, plant and sponge silico-sclerids from three soil cores in the central Everglades marshes. Subfossil quality varied among cores, but the abundance of recognizable specimens was sufficient to infer 1,000–3,000 years of hydrologic change at decadal to centennial resolution. Phytolith morphotypes were linked to key marsh plant species to indirectly measure fluctuations in water depth. A modern dataset was used to derive diatom-based inferences of water depth and hydroperiod (R2 = 0.63, 0.47; RMSE = 14 cm, 120 days, respectively). Changes in subfossil quality and abundances at centennial time-scales were associated with mid-Holocene climate events including the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period, while decadal-scale fluctuations in assemblage structure during the twentieth century suggested co-regulation of hydrology by cyclical climate drivers (particularly the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and water management changes. The successful reconstructions based on siliceous subfossils shown here at a coarse temporal scale (i.e., decadal to centennial) advocate for their application in more highly resolved (i.e., subdecadal) records, which should improve the ability of water managers to target the quantity and variability of water flows appropriate for hydrologic restoration.

Distribution of Diatoms and Development of Diatom-Based Models for Inferring Salinity and Nutrient Concentrations in Florida Bay and Adjacent Coastal Wetlands of South Florida (USA)

The composition and distribution of diatom algae inhabiting estuaries and coasts of the subtropical Americas are poorly documented, especially relative to the central role diatoms play in coastal food webs and to their potential utility as sentinels of environmental change in these threatened ecosystems. Here, we document the distribution of diatoms among the diverse habitat types and long environmental gradients represented by the shallow topographic relief of the South Florida, USA, coastline. A total of 592 species were encountered from 38 freshwater, mangrove, and marine locations in the Everglades wetland and Florida Bay during two seasonal collections, with the highest diversity occurring at sites of high salinity and low water column organic carbon concentration (WTOC). Freshwater, mangrove, and estuarine assemblages were compositionally distinct, but seasonal differences were only detected in mangrove and estuarine sites where solute concentration differed greatly between wet and dry seasons. Epiphytic, planktonic, and sediment assemblages were compositionally similar, implying a high degree of mixing along the shallow, tidal, and storm-prone coast. The relationships between diatom taxa and salinity, water total phosphorus (WTP), water total nitrogen (WTN), and WTOC concentrations were determined and incorporated into weighted averaging partial least squares regression models. Salinity was the most influential variable, resulting in a highly predictive model (r apparent 2  = 0.97, r jackknife 2  = 0.95) that can be used in the future to infer changes in coastal freshwater delivery or sea-level rise in South Florida and compositionally similar environments. Models predicting WTN (r apparent 2  = 0.75, r jackknife 2  = 0.46), WTP (r apparent 2  = 0.75, r jackknife 2  = 0.49), and WTOC (r apparent 2  = 0.79, r jackknife 2  = 0.57) were also strong, suggesting that diatoms can provide reliable inferences of changes in solute delivery to the coastal ecosystem.

Global Pricing Strategy for a Quick-Service Restaurant Chain

The purpose of this paper is to compare prices for a popular quick-service restaurant chain (i.e. McDonalds’) across countries throughout the world using the “Big Mac Index” published by “The Economist.” The index was originally developed to measure the valuation of international currencies against the U.S. dollar. The analysis in this study examines the relationship between the price of a Big Mac and other variables such as the cost of beef, price elasticity, and income. Finally, these relationships are reviewed to draw inferences concerning the use of demand, costs, and competition in setting prices.

The market value implications of pension asset allocation

Pension funds have been part of the private sector since the 1850's. Defined Benefit pension plans [DB], where a company promises to make regular contributions to investment accounts held for participating employees in order to pay a promised lifelong annuity, are significant capital markets participants, amounting to 2.3 trillion dollars in 2010 (Federal Reserve Board, 2013). In 2006, Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No.158 (SFAS 158), Employers' Accounting for Defined Benefit Pension and Other Postemployment Plans, shifted information concerning funding status and pension asset/liability composition from disclosure in the footnotes to recognition in the financial statements. I add to the literature by being the first to examine the effect of recent pension reform during the financial crisis of 2008-09. This dissertation is comprised of three related essays. In my first essay, I investigate whether investors assign different pricing multiples to the various classes of pension assets when valuing firms. The pricing multiples on all classes of assets are significantly different from each other, but only investments in bonds and equities were value-relevant during the recent financial crisis. Consistent with investors viewing pension liabilities as liabilities of the firm, the pricing multiples on pension liabilities are significantly larger than those on non-pension liabilities. The only pension costs significantly associated with firm value are actual rate of return and interest expense. In my second essay, I investigate the role of accruals in predicting future cash flows, extending the Barth et al. (2001a) model of the accrual process. Using market value of equity as a proxy for cash flows, the results of this study suggest that aggregate accounting amounts mask how the components of earnings affect investors' ability to predict future cash flows. Disaggregating pension earnings components and accruals results in an increase in predictive power. During the 2008-2009 financial crisis, however, investors placed a greater (and negative) weight on the incremental information contained in the individual components of accruals. The inferences are robust to alternative specifications of accruals. Finally, in my third essay I investigate how investors view under-funded plans. On average, investors: view deficits arising from under-funded plans as belonging to the firm; reward firms with fully or over-funded pension plans; and encourage those funds with unfunded pension plans to become funded. Investors also encourage conservative pension asset allocations to mitigate firm risk, and smaller firms are perceived as being better able to handle the risk associated with underfunded plans. During the financial crisis of 2008-2009 underfunded status had a lower negative association with market value. In all three models, there are significant differences in pre- and post- SFAS 158 periods. These results are robust to various scenarios of the timing of the financial crisis and an alternative measure of funding.

On the Existence and Uniqueness of the Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Normal and Lognormal Population Parameters with Grouped Data

Lognormal distribution has abundant applications in various fields. In literature, most inferences on the two parameters of the lognormal distribution are based on Type-I censored sample data. However, exact measurements are not always attainable especially when the observation is below or above the detection limits, and only the numbers of measurements falling into predetermined intervals can be recorded instead. This is the so-called grouped data. In this paper, we will show the existence and uniqueness of the maximum likelihood estimators of the two parameters of the underlying lognormal distribution with Type-I censored data and grouped data. The proof was first established under the case of normal distribution and extended to the lognormal distribution through invariance property. The results are applied to estimate the median and mean of the lognormal population.

Distribution of Diatoms Along Environmental Gradients in the Charlotte Harbor, Florida (USA), Estuary and Its Watershed: Implications for Bioassessment of Salinity and Nutrient Concentrations

The relative abundance of diatom species in different habitats can be used as a tool to infer prior environmental conditions and evaluate management decisions that influence habitat quality. Diatom distribution patterns were examined to characterize relationships between assemblage composition and environmental gradients in a subtropical estuarine watershed. We identified environmental correlates of diatom distribution patterns across the Charlotte Harbor, Florida, watershed; evaluated differences among three major river drainages; and determined how accurately local environmental conditions can be predicted using inference models based on diatom assemblages. Sampling locations ranged from freshwater to marine (0.1–37.2 ppt salinity) and spanned broad nutrient concentration gradients. Salinity was the predominant driver of difference among diatom assemblages across the watershed, but other environmental variables had stronger correlations with assemblages within the subregions of the three rivers and harbor. Eighteen indicator taxa were significantly affiliated with subregions. Relationships between diatom taxon distributions and salinity, distance from the harbor, total phosphorus (TP), and total nitrogen (TN) were evaluated to determine the utility of diatom assemblages to predict environmental values using a weighted averaging-regression approach. Diatom-based inferences of these variables were strong (salinity R 2 = 0.96; distance R 2 = 0.93; TN R 2 = 0.83; TP R 2 = 0.83). Diatom assemblages provide reliable estimates of environmental parameters on different spatial scales across the watershed. Because many coastal diatom taxa are ubiquitous, the diatom training sets provided here should enable diatom-based environmental reconstructions in subtropical estuaries that are being rapidly altered by land and water use changes and sea level rise.

Vocabulary learning through use of the picture-word inductive model for young English learners in China: A mixed methods examination using Cognitive Load Theory

English has been taught as a core and compulsory subject in China for decades. Recently, the demand for English in China has increased dramatically. China now has the world's largest English-learning population. The traditional English-teaching method cannot continue to be the only approach because it merely focuses on reading, grammar and translation, which cannot meet English learners and users' needs (i.e., communicative competence and skills in speaking and writing). ^ This study was conducted to investigate if the Picture-Word Inductive Model (PWIM), a new pedagogical method using pictures and inductive thinking, would benefit English learners in China in terms of potential higher output in speaking and writing. With the gauge of Cognitive Load Theory (CLT), specifically, its redundancy effect, I investigated whether processing words and a picture concurrently would present a cognitive overload for English learners in China. ^ I conducted a mixed methods research study. A quasi-experiment (pretest, intervention for seven weeks, and posttest) was conducted using 234 students in four groups in Lianyungang, China (58 fourth graders and 57 seventh graders as an experimental group with PWIM and 59 fourth graders and 60 seventh graders as a control group with the traditional method). No significant difference in the effects of PWIM was found on vocabulary acquisition based on grade levels. Observations, questionnaires with open-ended questions, and interviews were deployed to answer the three remaining research questions. A few students felt cognitively overloaded when they encountered too many writing samples, too many new words at one time, repeated words, mismatches between words and pictures, and so on. Many students listed and exemplified numerous strengths of PWIM, but a few mentioned weaknesses of PWIM. The students expressed the idea that PWIM had a positive effect on their English teaching. ^ As integrated inferences, qualitative findings were used to explain the quantitative results that there were no significant differences of the effects of the PWIM between the experimental and control groups in both grade levels, from four contextual aspects: time constraints on PWIM implementation, teachers' resistance, how to use PWIM and PWIM implemented in a classroom over 55 students.^

An empirical analysis of the global audit market: International Financial Reporting Standards-related changes and differences within the Big 4 global networks

Ongoing debates within the professional and academic communities have raised a number of questions specific to the international audit market. This dissertation consists of three related essays that address such issues. First, I examine whether the propensity to switch between auditors of different sizes (i.e., Big 4 versus non-Big 4) changes as adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) becomes a more common phenomenon, arguing that smaller auditors have an opportunity to invest in necessary skills and training needed to enter this market. Findings suggest that clients are relatively less (more) likely to switch to (away from) a Big 4 auditor if the client's adoption of IFRS occurs in more recent years. ^ In the second essay, I draw on these inferences and test whether the change in audit fees in the year of IFRS adoption changes over time. As the market becomes less concentrated, larger auditors becomes less able to demand a premium for their services. Consistent with my arguments, results suggest that the change in audit service fees declines over time, although this effect seems concentrated among the Big 4. I also find that this effect is partially attributable to a differential effect of the auditors' experience in pricing audit services related to IFRS based on the period in which adoption occurs. The results of these two essays offer important implications to policy debates on the costs and benefits of IFRS adoption. ^ In the third essay, I differentiate Big 4 auditors into three classifications—Parent firms, Brand Name affiliates, and Local affiliates—and test for differences in audit fee premiums (relative to non-Big 4 auditors) and audit quality. Results suggest that there is significant heterogeneity between the three classifications based on both of these characteristics, which is an important consideration for future research. Overall, this dissertation provides additional insights into a variety of aspects of the global audit market.^