986 resultados para Transition probabilities


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Estimates of instantaneous mortality rates (Z) and annual apparent survival probabilities (Φ) were generated from catch-curve analyses for oceanic-stage juvenile loggerheads (Caretta caretta) in the waters of the Azores. Two age distributions were analyzed: the “total sample” of 1600 loggerheads primarily captured by sighting and dipnetting from a variety of vessels in the Azores between 1984 and 1995 and the “tuna sample” of 733 loggerheads (a subset of the total sample) captured by sighting and dipnetting from vessels in the commercial tuna fleet in the Azores between 1990 and 1992. Because loggerhead sea turtles begin to emigrate from oceanic to neritic habitats at age 7, the best estimates of instantaneous mortality rate (0.094) and annual survival probability (0.911) not confounded with permanent emigration were generated for age classes 2 through 6. These estimates must be interpreted with caution because of the assumptions upon which catch-curve analyses are based. However, these are the first directly derived estimates of mortality and survival probabilities for oceanic-stage sea turtles. Estimation of survival probabilities was identified as “an immediate and critical requirement” in 2000 by the Turtle Expert Working Group of the U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service.

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The green sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis) is important to the economy of Maine. It is the state’s fourth largest fishery by value. The fishery has experienced a continuous decline in landings since 1992 because of decreasing stock abundance. Because determining the age of sea urchins is often difficult, a formal stock assessment demands the development of a size-structured population dynamic model. One of the most important components in a size-structured model is a growth-transition matrix. We developed an approach for estimating the growth-transition matrix using von Bertalanffy growth parameters estimated in previous studies of the green sea urchin off Maine. This approach explicitly considers size-specific variations associated with yearly growth increments for these urchins. The proposed growth-transition matrix can be updated readily with new information on growth, which is important because changes in stock abundance and the ecosystem will likely result in changes in sea urchin key life history parameters including growth. This growth-transition matrix can be readily incorporated into the size-structured stock assessment model that has been developed for assessing the green sea urchin stock off Maine.